Mini Normal 2044: Game over!

[bji]

garmr will be dying today so he will be the only scum if he is scum, so he can only target town if he is scum, so it doesn't matter who he targets
If scum leave him alive for the wifom or because they can roleblock him, it also doesn't matter who he targets
If he dies, it also doesn't matter who he targets

Well I don't agree that "it doesn't matter who he targets" if he is scum. Persivul seems clever enough to maximize the value of a faked target.

But I guess this is a dead end, so I will stop here.

VOTE: Garmr

I believe, but am not certain, that this is L - 1:

Garmr: { Garmr, Clemency, bji }

[bji]

Reaper could be godfather, but with Loud Cop and Loud Doctor in the mix I do not know whether or not this would be considered balanced.

[Irrelephant11]

there's almost certainly no godfather in this game

[Sashaddin]

Clemency:
post 895 tells me to lych him regardless of alignment
his vote/unvote/vote makes think think he could be bussing a scum!garmr
860 is ugh.

bji:
not yet fully redempted, I can still sense a bit of possible scum in his posts. Less reaching than Day 1 but now we're Day 2.
but I feel his mind going into all directions at once, it could be a confused town or a scum blurring his tracks. I could extract a few posts but I'm typing this quick because my wife can need me anytime.

Irrrelephant:
either town a a very good scum game. I could go on more if needed.

Reaper, Persivul, Garmr
being non-lethally targeted can come from many roles from what I've read. So I seee there's a triangle between Persivul, Garmr and Reaper. I can elaborate later. Garmr flipping will eliminate a few of the outcomes I see possible.

I'll post and elaborate more later when I have time.

[Sashaddin]

there's almost certainly no godfather in this game

Your join date makes me think you're an alt, or else you've played a lot before coming here to know about this.

[Irrelephant11]

Neither, though I have many finished games onsite. A godfather in a micro with a cop and no other investigative roles is basically a setup where "if the cop checks the godfather, town loses" which isn't a setup that would get approved unless I'm just pants-on-head when it comes to how roles work.

[bji]

Neither, though I have many finished games onsite. A godfather in a micro with a cop and no other investigative roles is basically a setup where "if the cop checks the godfather, town loses" which isn't a setup that would get approved unless I'm just pants-on-head when it comes to how roles work.

In Mini Normal 1744 I was godfather and town had only Town Doctor, Town Roleblocker, and Ascetic Town Cop. And yes, the town cop got exactly one target and it was me, so town did lose.

I agree it's a crappy setup.

Godfather with Loud Doctor and Loud Cop would be especially bad because the godfather would know who inno'd him or protected him so he'd have the advantage both of being godfather and of knowing who on town has power roles when he got targeted.

[bji]

Clemency:
post 895 tells me to lych him regardless of alignment

But you've played with him. You said so yourself several times. You rated his town game as good. It makes no sense that you would consider his own admission of being bad in lylo over any of your own person evaluations of his game.

This entire time you've acted like you knew clem was town from the get-go. Just nothing about any way you've treated him or talked about him has had any hint of suspicion. Even when your words say you are suspicious they are generally pretty shallow and don't seem very committal, example:

"his vote/unvote/vote makes think think he could be bussing a scum!garmr"

860 is ugh.

I mean I agree with that, but what is AI about it?

Irrrelephant:
either town a a very good scum game. I could go on more if needed.

In Day 1 you made all this noise about not being able to make Day 1 reads and needing flips to make real evaluations. And

this

is what we get?

I don't think you ever had real reads to begin with and were coasting.

At some point today I am going to do a deep analysis of Sash/Garmr interactions.

[Lady Angel]

Votecount 2.1:

Garmr: 3 (Garmr, Clemency, bji)

L-1

Not voting: Clemency, ReaperOfSouls, Sashaddin, Irrelephant11, Garmr, bji, Persivul

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 2 will end on December 19th, 2018 at 4:00 PM PST, or 20 days and 22 minutes from this post.

The following players have not posted since day start and will be prodded if they do not post before the next votecount:

[Sashaddin]

And this is what we get?

...but I'm typing this quick because my wife can need me anytime.


...I'll post and elaborate more later when I have time.

I shouldn't have contributed until I had full time to do it then. I wanted to give you a quick heads-up about what I felt. I coudnl't justify on the spot. My bad, I guess. Next game I'll only post once every 24 hours.
By the way, she really did need me 30 secs after I was done with this. My son turned 5 months old today (yay!).

[Sashaddin]

But you've played with him. You said so yourself several times. You rated his town game as good. It makes no sense that you would consider his own admission of being bad in lylo over any of your own person evaluations of his game.

He got nightkilled Night 2, he never got to lylo with me. But this post wants me to lynch anyone who would write it, Clem or not. I don't think you can draw something bad from this.

[Sashaddin]

Just nothing about any way you've treated him or talked about him has had any hint of suspicion. Even when your words say you are suspicious they are generally pretty shallow and don't seem very committal, example:

"his vote/unvote/vote makes think think he could be bussing a scum!garmr"

I'm reacting from what I've seen from Day 2 now. The reads I could have Day 1 are erased, not averaged (I hope you'll understand whatI mean here). I genuinely think this reaction (vote/unvote/vote) could be a change of heart at the last minute in the mafia thread, but I didn't have enough time to type it fully.

[Sashaddin]

In Day 1 you made all this noise about not being able to make Day 1 reads and needing flips to make real evaluations. And this is what we get?

I can't type much when I'm at work. I can read, but there were many many pages added; also being away from my notes at home made trying to solve the game difficult... yeah, I take notes.

[Sashaddin]

I don't think you ever had real reads to begin with and were coasting.

I was very active at the start of the game, remember? I got bored when it grinded to a halt. I agree I didn't do much when it started back though.

[Sashaddin]

I mean I agree with that, but what is AI about it?

What does AI mean again?

[Sashaddin]

In response to 892

Irrrelephant:
either town

*OR

a very good scum game. I could go on more if needed.

Post 826. Irrelephant defends the rep of Garmr. Could be a team, but I agree that's first-level thinking. So he could be town or WIFOMing as scum in a risky move. Also, claiming to have been visited by a nightkilled guy is a weird coincidence.
Same in 845 and 851 and 887.

In 890, his premise is that Skitter's protection was true, if it isn't the whole post is worth zero. Again some wifom.

910 is where the sparks fly all around, targeting many people. Are those true reads or clever scum at work? I don't like walls for this.

So, bji, that's why I still can't tell if he's green or red. I'm not elephantshitting you.

[bji]

I mean I agree with that, but what is AI about it?

What does AI mean again?

AI means "alignment indicative". I see Clem's post as bad from scum as well as bad from town. I'm asking you why you think it's more likely to come from scum just because it's bad.

In response to 892

Irrrelephant:
either town

*OR

a very good scum game. I could go on more if needed.

Post 826. Irrelephant defends the rep of Garmr. Could be a team, but I agree that's first-level thinking. So he could be town or WIFOMing as scum in a risky move. Also, claiming to have been visited by a nightkilled guy is a weird coincidence.

Hey Irrelephant, would you categorize your post as 'defending the rep of Garmr'? I wouldn't.

But the nightkilled doctor targeted

someone

. So are you saying that any player who would have claimed to have been targeted by Skitter was the subject of a coincidence? Or just Irrelephant?

Same in 845 and 851 and 887.

I just see town paranoia. The only risk to town at this point is that Persivul is somehow scum which would pretty much lose the game for town. So I think it's natural to want to feel confident that Persivul is not scum and that Garmr really is scum and I see Irrelephant following alot of the same thought processes I have as I have been reading today's events. Just kind of double-checking to make sure that we're not missing something obvious that would let us be beaten by a scum!Persivul.

In 890, his premise is that Skitter's protection was true, if it isn't the whole post is worth zero. Again some wifom.

And why is Irrelephant creating this fictitous result from Skitter? Skitter's not around to confirm it, so ... what does it buy Irrelephant to lie about being targeted? Yes he did say that skitter's target should be +town for him, but he knows that this is weak stuff (and says it) and it's not really going to convince anyone of anything. Nobody seems to be too excited to use Creature or Skitter's reads, besides me, so who is Irrelephant supposed to be appealing to with a fake target claim from skitter? Me?

910 is where the sparks fly all around, targeting many people. Are those true reads or clever scum at work? I don't like walls for this.

I liked 910 and it points the finger at me several times. It's a good post.


So, bji, that's why I still can't tell if he's green or red. I'm not elephantshitting you. [/quote][/quote]

[bji]

Whoops screwed up the editing, the last line of post 991 wasn't meant to be there, it's a floating quote from Sash.

[Garmr]

[Persivul]

Could someone unvote? I'd like to look at this closer over the weekend.

In case a hammer happens: right now I'd say lynch sash tomorrow, if that doesn't end it lynch irrelephant the next day. But again there's still some things I'd like to look into.

[Clemency]

UNVOTE:

[Irrelephant11]

Could someone unvote? I'd like to look at this closer over the weekend.

In case a hammer happens: right now I'd say lynch sash tomorrow, if that doesn't end it lynch irrelephant the next day. But again there's still some things I'd like to look into.

Can you talk more about why I should be lynched over Clemency in lylo?
I agree Sash is more likely scum than Clemency, but I obviously disagree that I'm more likely scum than Clemency

[Persivul]

Can you talk more about why I should be lynched over Clemency in lylo?

Probably not today, but I'll get into it in more detail (or possibly change my mind) tomorrow or Sunday.

[Persivul]

I agree Sash is more likely scum than Clemency, but I obviously disagree that I'm more likely scum than Clemency

Does this mean you've pretty much ruled out bji?

[Irrelephant11]

pretty much
Not that I think it's 0% chance he's scum, just that I don't think I'd use one of our two remaining lynches on him
If there's another PR out there who can get more info maybe things might change