Newbie 1913 - game over!!

[the worst]

vote count 1.09

hearthstone1235 (0) :
YellowSnow (1) : volxen
L84Dnr (0) :
DoubtingThomas (1) : SaintAngelDFE
Roo (1) : YellowSnow
SaintAngelDFE (2) : xwing, Roo,
volxen (1) : L84Dnr
xwing (0) :
brassherald (1) : DoubtingThomas

not voting: brassherald, hearthstone1235

with 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

day one will end automatically in (expired on 2019-01-30 14:00:00) or sooner if a lynch is achieved by majority.


mod notes:
- xwing regular v/la over weekends
- quack

[brassherald]

Hey, if someone unvoted.

VOTE: Saint

L-2

[hearthstone1235]

The "Finding Fire" comment was directed at how it felt like to me that you were throwing these things at the wall just to see what would stick. Then if anybody questioned you motives behind these reachy things, you could easily just say that it's early on Day 1 and you were trying to see who would jump at what you were saying.

How would you describe the motives behind some of your early pressure? Is there anyone that stands out as more likely scum?

I'm not troubled by being put at L-1, that's how things go on Day 1. But I would like more substance from yellowsnow's posts because as of now he seems to be in that posting a decent amount but flying under the radar, sort of position.

@yellowsnow did you know that your vote put me at L-1? And do you have any reads at this point?

And yeah, I give a slight town read to brassherald because there isn't really any reason to think otherwise at this point. Also in my very limited experience in these newbie games, a frequent Day 1 occurrence seems to be people targeting lower post counts because New players who draw scum tend to try and not assert themselves much into the game. brassherald being the IC, its fair to assume knows this, so I don't find it likely that this is the route that he would take if he were scum (i.e. most of his posts being IC related)

I actually wasn't trying to see who would jump at what I was saying - though, I suppose now that would be a bonus - I was trying to read the reactions of who I voted instead. And to see if they would respond calmly or not, and if they would say anything scummy. At the start of the game it is hard to make good cases anyway. So, I think sitting by and doing nothing would get us nowhere.

Is there anyone that stands out as more likely scum?

I'll answer this question once I'm done with some re-reading and stuff. Because there are some things that I'd like to make sure of.

[hearthstone1235]

What is backtracking?

Now if you want a decent reason for starting a wagon on Volxen how
about the fact that he's an experienced player with only 9 posts in nearly 7 pages. Much of that is low content.

VOTE: Volxen

Volxen, why the silent treatment?

Sounds like a good idea. Would probably join in if I have nothing better to do.

[hearthstone1235]

"IC_Question": What if scum plays exactly as they would if they were town? Wouldn't it be impossible to catch them?

@brass, Do you have anything to say/any reads? You haven't been generating a lot of in-game content so far, if any.

I play things close to the chest early for sure. That being said, I random voted Roo early because it was early to type, but I haven't liked his i

nteractions

too much and so I haven't moved my vote.

The super defensive response to someone asking about an L-2 wagon on me makes me uneasy.

What kind of interactions didn't you like, it implies that there is more than one interaction, although he only posted 3 posts at that time.

I also do think I might have confused Roo with someone else earlier since I did mention something about his reaction to my wagon, but I think he was actually on the other side of the conversation than what I had thought.

When did you do that? Can you elaborate more?

[hearthstone1235]

@DoubtingThomas

Assuming you were another player in the game, would you scumread Doubtingthomas?

Would be nice if you addressed this:

Doubting Thomas is asking very general questions rather than pointed ones, that seems like being active lurking. I mean, there is a difference between asking someone what they think of the gamestate and what they think of a specific slot or a specific post. I feel like we are at the point where the questions should be specific rather than general. The questions just seem too easy.

Also, how about you? What are your thoughts on the game so far? What do you think of Roo and Volxen in particular?

[hearthstone1235]

The vote on Roo was more or less trying to see if he could have been trying to talk to other mafia before he responded? But unfortunately the response he gave seemed genuine and not rushed.

It was a reach and I should have voiced it.

Yellow is neutral to me, I'm not picking up on anything going either direction.

Don't you find it suspicious that Yellow hasn't done that much?
Can you elaborate on the red part?

how about a yellow-saint scum team?

Why yellow-saint especially? What do you think of this possibility?

There wasn't really that much of interaction between them, except saint saying that yellow is neutral. This does give the team some credit, of being purposely avoiding each other. Though I kind of doubt it, because newbie scum players would be more likely to help each other maybe? Though a lot of players have been pushing saint so far (xwing, roo, brass, LQ). and yellow is one of the players who aren't pushing saint. I suppose it would be possible. Though the same argument would work for DT-saint and volxen-saint as well. Especially the fact that saint accidentally(?) lynched volxen, which would mean that saint was thinking of volxen at that time. So I'd give volxen-saint a bigger possibility. But all of that assuming that saint is a scum in the first place. But right now he's more of a null-leaning scum to me, I'm waiting to see how will he respond to all the questions directed to him before I decide my stance.

between roo and brass I like the roo wagon better. At least brass has been helpful.

VOTE: roo

What did you think of the wagon on brass?

It would be great if you'd share what do you think of everyone so far.

[hearthstone1235]

Is there anyone that stands out as more likely scum?

Right now, I'm waiting for volsen to talk, for saint, DT and yellow to answer the questions directed to them before I figure out what to think of them. If I have any reads on them they are likely weak.

VOTE: volsen

[brassherald]

"IC_Question": What if scum plays exactly as they would if they were town? Wouldn't it be impossible to catch them?

I wouldn't say impossible. At the end of the game there's always a question of why someone is there. Night Kills generally aim for people who are either super Towny, an obvious PR or sometimes just someone who is too close to solving the game.

That being said, it can be very hard to catch a skilled scum player who has a scum range which closely emulates their town. If someone gets that reputation, people will probably just start lynching that individual before end game to be safe

[brassherald]

I do realize other questions are directed at me but I'm on my phone so I'll handle them later

[DoubtingThomas]

"IC_Question": What if scum plays exactly as they would if they were town? Wouldn't it be impossible to catch them?

I wouldn't say impossible. At the end of the game there's always a question of why someone is there. Night Kills generally aim for people who are either super Towny, an obvious PR or sometimes just someone who is too close to solving the game.

That being said, it can be very hard to catch a skilled scum player who has a scum range which closely emulates their town. If someone gets that reputation, people will probably just start lynching that individual before end game to be safe

It is not impossible because they have exactly different players they need to lynch to win

For example if I am in a game of 13 players, there are usually 3 scums.

Say I am town. My goal is to find 3 scums out of the 12 players, or 9 towns out of the 12 players (excluding myself)

Say I am scum. My goal is to mislynch the other 10 players (excluding myself and two teammates, total of 3 mafias in a 13 player game)

In the process, maybe I can also bus my other two teammates for some credit, but in the end I have to kill at least 7 town players as scum (because 3 towns - 3 scums is a parity win condition for scum so i need to at LEAST kill 7 players), whereas as town, I have to find and kill other 3 scum players, while in the process towns will be night killed and potentially be lynched, but I can theoretically win the game after only 5 players have died (by lynching all 3 scums back to back to back meanwhile during the nights 2 towns are being night killed)

I know that explanation kinda sucked, but that is basically the core reason.

Don't forget, during the process of the game, the logic/reasoning for one person to use for scum reading a town as a town and wolf and also scum reading a scum/bussing a scum as a town/wolf will have differences, inherently

[DoubtingThomas]

@DoubtingThomas

Assuming you were another player in the game, would you scumread Doubtingthomas?

Would be nice if you addressed this:

Doubting Thomas is asking very general questions rather than pointed ones, that seems like being active lurking. I mean, there is a difference between asking someone what they think of the gamestate and what they think of a specific slot or a specific post. I feel like we are at the point where the questions should be specific rather than general. The questions just seem too easy.

Also, how about you? What are your thoughts on the game so far? What do you think of Roo and Volxen in particular?

I am going to be very honest with you, and this will probably seem very egotistical/over-confident and you will probably hate it and maybe use those personal feelings to scum read me but whatever

I am also going to be telling you the 100% truth and giving you this answer pretending I am another player who is completely aware of how DoubtingThomas works (well, because I am DoubtingThomas)

No, I won't for several reasons

Well, first, what brass has pointed out is very true. Asking 'general' question is an easy way for scums to make themselves

LOOK

like they are trying to solve. Brass makes an extremely good point that such questions are often >rand wolf for people, especially newer players.

He mentions also that asking "pin pointed" questions are beter than general questions. This is true. However, what he forgets is that good wolves will do townie things. Bad towns will do scummy things.

I am a pretty good wolf. Compared to my town game, I am a really good wolf. I have a pretty good win record as wolf (6-2? ish) and I have almost never been mislynched as a wolf (although I have been n1 vigged by towns two times by people who know my meta well)

The point brass is making is pretty good, and can generally be considered as kind of a "rule of thumb" especially in a newbie game like this one

But at the same time, if werewolf games were that easy, we won't have any good players right? Towns have done really dumb/anti-town things all the time. To the point where it is better for some of them to just kinda be policy lynched for being so bad.

I think I am going nowhere this pep talk. I have an issue always just rambling and talking abotu random shit that is unnecessary and that's why I don't do well in my job interviews.

Anyways, the point being, what Brass said is true to some extent. But it is not a good tell to one of the more experienced players.

Now let's go back to what I personally think about DT based on what I know.

DT has 9000 posts in a different website called Mafia Universe where he created the account mid-July of 2018. On record, he has about ~55 games played. A lot of them are turbos (which are very short 18min/6min mini games) and loves to play on 12hours/12hours phases or at the most 36/12hours phases. He subbed out of a lot of games on mafia scum when he joined a bunch couple months ago because the week long phases just was too much/boring for DT who likes to post a shitton

Given that, I think DT's overall performance here has been underwhelming for sure. However, I also know that DT

LOVES

to wolf. He loves to town too, but loves to wolf a lot more. He is also a far better wolf than town. What Brass has commented which is definitely lackluster of DT is never really a wolf tell for him. Rather, personally, I think it makes DT >rand town because he will high post and generate content as both alignment, quite frankly, but he will never be caught as a wolf for not really doing anything or trying to act fakely townie

DT will do what he does as town as a wolf. The questions he asks, the comments he make, the shitposts he writes, and the pushes he commits always come from the fact that he truly

BELIEVES

in (as a town) that or KNOWS THAT HE WILL BELIEVE it if he were town (as a wolf)

DT not posting any reads/pushes at the moment is slightly ping-y, but I am a little confused because he would have no problem just pushing people who are scummy or even if they are not scummy to see their reaction. His low content is also negative for town so I think he should start stepping his game up and start posting a lot more to carry town to the win.

Right now, I personally would list DT at "very slight scum lean" for low efforting, but secretly know that that is non alignment indicative for him and is only putting him at scum lean to see his reaction. He is a very omgus-y type of a player so that will generate reaction frmo him which will help you learn his alignment

Tl;dr If I am not DT but I know DT's meta and history, I would put him at very slight scum lean to generate reaction to help myself understand his alignment a little more while keeping in mind he is actually null. I would be slightly annoyed that he is not playing to his usual self because no matter what that is that is negative for town and hope that he will start playing. As of now, he isn't one of my main scum suspects tbh

[YellowSnow]

@yellowsnow did you know that your vote put me at L-1? And do you have any reads at this point?

Yes, I knew. I thought that was allowed. I put my vote on who I think is scum. I've given plenty of reads.

[YellowSnow]

For the record I think it's possible there may be scum on Roo's wagon. It's not me, but if had to guess I'd say l84 or Saint based on wagon position. I still think Roo is more likely scum than either though.

[DoubtingThomas]

For the record I think it's possible there may be scum on Roo's wagon. It's not me, but if had to guess I'd say l84 or Saint based on wagon position. I still think Roo is more likely scum than either though.

what do you mean by the wagon position? can you explain?

why do you think roo is more likely scum tahn l84 or saint?

[YellowSnow]

I don't think it's brass because scum are more likely to be wagon followers than starters in my experience.

I feel like Roo is trying to active lurk through day 1.

[brassherald]

Tl;dr If I am not DT but I know DT's meta and history, I would put him at very slight scum lean to generate reaction to help myself understand his alignment a little more while keeping in mind he is actually null. I would be slightly annoyed that he is not playing to his usual self because no matter what that is that is negative for town and hope that he will start playing. As of now, he isn't one of my main scum suspects tbh

Are you talking about yourself in the third person and reading yourself.

This is why I also hate walls, if you can say something in fewer words, say it that way, this post in general is too hard to follow and I have no clue what you are trying to say.

[L84Dnr]

L84, what are your thoughts

I think it's pretty quiet in here. 10 people should have generated more posts than this in 5ish days. Clearly not all of them are scum, so we're looking at a mix of lurking scum, n00bish shyness, and RL commitments. Hard to say which are which yet. Waiting to hear from Volxen because he doesn't have the excuse of being a n00b.

@BrassHerald Is this level of not posting normal for a newbie game or do we have an unusually high number of mimes playing?

[brassherald]

@BrassHerald Is this level of not posting normal for a newbie game or do we have an unusually high number of mimes playing?

It's a game by game basis, really, but this amount of posting seems to be more like the norm in Newbie games than high post counts.

For reference, the worst's previous game that he modded was only 22 pages long. https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=78126

Plotinus ran a game that was just 26 pages long. https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=78044

Keeping in mind that these include post game discussions. I'd say this may still be a little slow, but I do think we also have more walls than I generally see in newbie games.

[volxen]

Now if you want a decent reason for starting a wagon on Volxen how about the fact that he's an experienced player with only 9 posts in nearly 7 pages. Much of that is low content.

VOTE: Volxen

Volxen, why the silent treatment?

I wasn't able to post last night due to IRL reasons, but I'm back now. I will be posting more later after I re-read the last several pages, but why single me out specifically because I am an SE? If I had the same number of posts in 7 pages as a newbie slot, would that still have stuck out to you?

You voted for me because you presumably want me to post more and want to see more content from me. But you just asked me very generally, "why the silent treatment?". Do you have any specific questions for me?

[volxen]

What is backtracking?

Now if you want a decent reason for starting a wagon on Volxen how
about the fact that he's an experienced player with only 9 posts in nearly 7 pages. Much of that is low content.

VOTE: Volxen

Volxen, why the silent treatment?

Sounds like a good idea.

Would probably join in if I have nothing better to do

.

"Would probably join in if I have nothing better to do" -- what is that even supposed to mean exactly? What would be the "better" thing that would keep you from voting for me? It sounds like you don't really seem to care all that much who gets wagoned.

Is there anyone that stands out as more likely scum?

Right now, I'm waiting for volsen to talk, for saint, DT and yellow to answer the questions directed to them before I figure out what to think of them.

If I have any reads on them they are likely weak

.

VOTE: volsen

It's actually Vol

x

en (with an "x" rather than "s").

I'm a bit wary of the fact that you voted for me and at the same time said that "any reads I have are likely weak", because it comes across like you are potentially trying to give yourself an out/excuse in the event that you are on someone's wagon who gets mislynched and flips green.

In any case, L84Dnr gave his reason for voting for me. Do you have a reason of your own for voting for me, or are you just sheeping L84Dnr here?

[xwing]

volxen, where are you right now with your reads?

[xwing]

@hearth:
to backtrack means to reverse your position on someone or something, but in a scummy/unnatural way..
also brass is right, drawing associations is far too early, i just combined my two biggest scum reads to make the scum team..hence saint-yellow..

@DT: this is important!!!
scum know who their fellow scum are, and they know everyone's alignment already..
they also have a private thread where they can communicate/interact at anytime (called daychat)..
what they dont know is who the town power roles (TPRs) are..
depending on the setup we are in though, they *may* have roles to find out who the PR is (e.g. mafia rolecop)..

i think DT may be town by virtue of townslip..

[L84Dnr]

Now if you want a decent reason for starting a wagon on Volxen how about the fact that he's an experienced player with only 9 posts in nearly 7 pages. Much of that is low content.

VOTE: Volxen

Volxen, why the silent treatment?

I wasn't able to post last night due to IRL reasons, but I'm back now. I will be posting more later after I re-read the last several pages,

It isn't just last night. You've been quiet all game.

but why single me out specifically because I am an SE?

I didn't. I already voted Roo for low post count. It's just more obvious as SE. With n00bs you get a whole variety of behaviours and trying to deconvolve the scumsign and the n00bsign is a right royal pain.

If I had the same number of posts in 7 pages as a newbie slot, would that still have stuck out to you?

Yup. I'd just be waffling more over whether it was due to n00bishness or not.

You voted for me because you presumably want me to post more and want to see more content from me.

Not precisely that I want you to post more, or more content. More that I want to know why you haven't. You may have an excellent reason for not having posted more. I just don't know what it is.

But you just asked me very generally, "why the silent treatment?". Do you have any specific questions for me?

Sorry, I thought that in context this would be understood to mean more specifically, "Why haven't you been more active?"

[L84Dnr]

For the record I think it's possible there may be scum on Roo's wagon. It's not me, but if had to guess I'd say l84 or Saint based on wagon position. I still think Roo is more likely scum than either though.

what do you mean by the wagon position? can you explain?

Scum tend to like to try and avoid the spotlight because they know that they're targets. That means that they

tend

to try and avoid prominent positions on wagons like the front or the hammer. People who start wagons and hammer wagons get asked questions that scum want to avoid answering, so you commonly find them mid-wagon. Or off the wagon completely. Check the wiki entry on Vote Count Analysis. That said, smart scum know that mid-wagon looks suspicious, so this can get very meta very quickly.