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Post Post #4225 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:31 pm

Post by light_ganski »

we can narrow this down by setup analysis now

the brie is werewolf (symmetrical scum teams)

worst is town (3 vts 1 wolf 1 goon)

last scum is in nancy and enter

what is the likelihood of enter fakeclaiming commuter?

i'd wager enter fakeclaiming (and being the wolf fruit vendor) is more likely than nancy being wolf neighbour
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Post Post #4226 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:32 pm

Post by light_ganski »

we can win this
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Post Post #4227 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:07 pm

Post by light_ganski »

wait no I'm completely wrong

there were two nks so theres a surviving mafia, an sk or the brie is a town vig
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Post Post #4228 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:07 pm

Post by light_ganski »

ignore my setup analysis crap I need to think more abt this
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Post Post #4229 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:21 pm

Post by Enter »

Two problems with your analysis, I think
1. Every flip so far has been mafia except vonflare, which just said werewolf instead of werewolf goon (is that typical)?
Spoiler:
In post 4022, xyzzy wrote:singletonking has died, and was a mafia goon.
In post 4216, xyzzy wrote:vonflare has died, and was a werewolf.
In post 3153, xyzzy wrote:Dannflor has died, and was a mafia day 3 vigilante.
In post 4215, xyzzy wrote:Purrcocet has died, and was a mafia fruit vendor.

2. And we know one team has a roleblocker, so for the scum team to be balanced, there would have to be two role blockers as well as two more werewolves, which means everyone but one person is mafia at this point.


Is it possible vonflare was actually a death Miller? I honestly think we could be down to maybe one scum left, given that brie wasn't rbd last night, which would suggest a 4p scum team and an SK maybe?
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Post Post #4230 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:24 pm

Post by Enter »

Yeah. Honestly I'm starting to think vonflare's claim was real, cuz if he was on a 2p scum team w/ a role blocker, surely the roleblocker would have blocked brie?
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Post Post #4231 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:54 pm

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VOTE: light_ganski
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Post Post #4232 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:59 pm

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Firstly

Nancy is town. After Merchants Daughter p2 ended I did some due diligence and there's shit in her ISO which she can't fake as scum - if this is a second scumgame she's been running concurrently to powerwolfing in both merchants daughter games with completely different wolf styles then I'm a fucking goose.
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Post Post #4233 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:00 pm

Post by light_ganski »

In post 4230, Enter wrote:Yeah. Honestly I'm starting to think vonflare's claim was real, cuz if he was on a 2p scum team w/ a role blocker, surely the roleblocker would have blocked brie?
considering the mod is xyzzy you're probably right. death miller that flips werewolf. not amused.

so we've got

roleblocker
serial killer
unlikely third scum
2-3 town
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Post Post #4234 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:01 pm

Post by light_ganski »

In post 4232, the worst wrote:Firstly

Nancy is town. After Merchants Daughter p2 ended I did some due diligence and there's shit in her ISO which she can't fake as scum - if this is a second scumgame she's been running concurrently to powerwolfing in both merchants daughter games with completely different wolf styles then I'm a fucking goose.
yeah nancy is never scum unless there actually is a second scum team

forgive me I've just done an all nighter
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Post Post #4235 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:07 pm

Post by Enter »

In post 4231, the worst wrote:VOTE: light_ganski
VOTE: vote: the worst
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In post 4233, light_ganski wrote:
In post 4230, Enter wrote:Yeah. Honestly I'm starting to think vonflare's claim was real, cuz if he was on a 2p scum team w/ a role blocker, surely the roleblocker would have blocked brie?
considering the mod is xyzzy you're probably right. death miller that flips werewolf. not amused.

so we've got

roleblocker
serial killer
unlikely third scum
2-3 town
This seems more likely and a lot more winnable. RN I think town block = Nancy, me, maybe you? Brie is SK. At this point I think I'm OK with SK lynch? cuz we probably have like one more scum? Honestly not sure. I'm also pretty jet lagged ATM so forgive me if my thinkers not doing super hot
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Post Post #4236 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:13 pm

Post by Enter »

Wow I'm tired. I meant to vote the worst cuz I was trying to talk to LG and he voted her but on second thought it was probably a bad idea anyways I'm gonna go to sleep but first UNVOTE: the worst

Please explain yourself and unvote we are nowhere near deadline
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Post Post #4237 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:14 pm

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There are no deadlines
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Post Post #4238 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:15 pm

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UNVOTE: ugh I'll talk through this later. I don't know why I'm so anxious about this.
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Post Post #4239 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:19 pm

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LG is the scum roleblocker Enter.
Unless your commuter claim is fake or Nancy is like.... a mafia neighbour rolebocker which is ridiculous when there's a goon.

There isn't a werewolf faction. Vonflare was actually a death miller. If there was a werewolf team with a roleblocker they would have just blocked TB last night and remained totally anonymous.

We need to lynch the roleblocker today.
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Post Post #4240 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:22 pm

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VOTE: light_ganski
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Post Post #4241 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:23 pm

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LG if I've fucked up horrendously and I'm gamethrowing I'm really really sorry
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Post Post #4242 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:31 pm

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UNVOTE: idfk I kinda want to vote Enter for that chainsawy vote
it has to be one of them I'm just not sure who
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Post Post #4243 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:32 pm

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@Nancy why do you think Kokichi was killed over you?
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Post Post #4244 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:39 pm

Post by light_ganski »

If there's a roleblocker it has to be enter. Not me.
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Post Post #4245 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:44 pm

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Why's that?
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Post Post #4246 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:47 pm

Post by TheBrie »

One holiday post. We had two kills so maybe I was correct on the very slim chance there was no role blocker. (See my ISO)
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Post Post #4247 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:51 pm

Post by TheBrie »

No wait, I'm wrong. Of course I wasn't blocked since I said I'd shoot Varsoon. Means it's not a werewolf rb, but I buy the theory that Varsoon was death miller.
Whatever's going on, scim tea is smaller than expected. Back in two days.
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Post Post #4248 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:54 pm

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Enjoy the v/la TB. Yeah I was pretty certain there had to be a roleblocker as well - it didn't come up in the massclaim and we have town Jailkeeper flips + the missing actions have been antitown...it's scum.
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Post Post #4249 (ISO) » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:55 pm

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It's possible we could have 2 mafia left btw, if TB is town
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