Open 753: Nomination Mafia [Game Over!]

[Shoshin]

Chenn, I'm the one who forced the 1v1, not SR.

[chennisden]

ops

but everything mechanical is still true.

[chennisden]

Yeah. It's a calculated risk - I wondered if it's safe to, reasoned that in a 1v1 between them I'd go for SR - are you seriously considering the possibility of Shoshin scum and SR town?

Lack of quickhammer should suggest he's scum by now, no?

See this.

To be safe,

I declare intent to L-1 Scum Reading.

[chennisden]

If Scum is town then auro/shoshin are scum.

[Shoshin]

I recommend not thinking about this game mechanically, Chenn.

From your perspective, it's very likely that one of me or SR is scum. It's still a probability, not a confirmed fact.

You don't need to declare intent at this point. If you think SR's scum, vote him.

[chennisden]

I'd like to hear other opinions before doing so

[chennisden]

If I don't hear anything in a while yes I will vote. But I don't want to lose LyLo to impatience.

[chennisden]

shoshin+auro is very unlikely, compared to SR scum.

Also Auro is likely town by mechanics AND play.

[chennisden]

this is exactly how scum played as town last time. he makes me want to scum read him so much; but this isn't an unfamiliar feeling

scum, if you're town, death tunnel shoshin RIGHT NOW. or we're going to lose.

scum, if you're scum, then

[chennisden]

Wait.

If we have a consensus TR place L-1 on Scum, we can get more info.

If scum was town we'd have lost already (probably). If our consensus TR votes and nobody hammers we have our entire scumteam.

[chennisden]

I recommend not thinking about this game mechanically, Chenn.

From your perspective, it's very likely that one of me or SR is scum. It's still a probability, not a confirmed fact.

You don't need to declare intent at this point. If you think SR's scum, vote him.

By the way, realize that this interaction never happens between scum chennis and scum Shoshin.

[Shoshin]

I'll offer some simple reasons to vote SR over me for those who aren't sure:

1. I was nominated twice. SR wasn't ever nominated. While it's possible that scum self-nominate twice in a row, it's unlikely because it puts scum at great risk while providing little if any advantage. Thus, the nominations suggest SR as more likely scum than me.

2. I've been leading the game after RC replaced out, offering tons of analysis about who the scum are, who the town are, and who we should be lynching. SR's been sheeping me the entire game. Based on the general propensity of town to lead & of scum to sheep misguided town, SR's more likely scum than me.

3. SR's a better probability lynch based solely on the fact he's plausibly partnered with anyone while it's unlikely that I'm partnered with Chenn, Volx, or DT. It's unlikely I'm partnered with Chenn or Volx because it's unlikely that scum nominate two of their members at the same time. It's unlikely I'm partnered with DT because scum almost never interact the way we have.

[Shoshin]

I recommend not thinking about this game mechanically, Chenn.

From your perspective, it's very likely that one of me or SR is scum. It's still a probability, not a confirmed fact.

You don't need to declare intent at this point. If you think SR's scum, vote him.

By the way, realize that this interaction never happens between scum chennis and scum Shoshin.

We're not partners because we were nominated at the same time, period. The same logic applies to me & Volx as well.

[Shoshin]

How do you feel about DT, Chenn?

[Shoshin]

this is exactly how scum played as town last time.

Please say more about this. What's exactly the same?

[chennisden]

this is exactly how scum played as town last time.

Please say more about this. What's exactly the same?

Last time = last newbie game I played with him (finished).

He makes you
1) want to scum read him
2) push him to death even if he is town

He's also pushing a lot of people and switching

[chennisden]

Anyway if you're town then you know for sure SR is scum.

[Alonzo]

Shoshin is getting the Oscar for this performance as either alignment, so just sheep and end this...

Amirite?

[volxen]

Please don't vote for Scumreading just yet.

[chennisden]

anyone who doesn't want SR quicklynched is inherently town

[volxen]

I'm working something out here, but the idea is that I think if either Shoshin or Auro are scum, they would not need to bus at all to win this game, which means DoubtingThomas is actually a better vote.

[chennisden]

I'm working something out here, but the idea is that I think if either Shoshin or Auro are scum, they would not need to bus at all to win this game, which means DoubtingThomas is actually a better vote.

But it is guaranteed that

at least

one of Shoshin and SR are scum. If you don't think Shoshin is scum then it must be SR.

[volxen]

First of all, these scumteam combinations are already ruled out just from the votes that have been placed in lylo:

Auro/DoubtingThomas/Chennisden (because Shoshin and Scumreading are definitely not both town)
Shoshin/DoubtingThomas/Chennisden (because Auro and Scumreading are definitely not both town)


Then following these assumptions:

1. Alonzo is locktown

2. If Shoshin is scum, she does not need to bus to win this game because of her standing in this game and her status as “power player”.

3. Auro, while not per se a “power player”, also does not need to bus to win this game as scum as he is a widely townread player that also has an extremely strong scumgame.

4. While DoubtingThomas doesn’t like to bus, he doesn’t have the standing that Shoshin and Auro have in this game, so it would be more difficult for him to win this game without bussing compared to Shoshin or Auro.

5. Based on the above, scum!Shoshin is very unlikely to have nominated scum!Chennisden on day four. Scum!Auro is very unlikely to have nominated scum!Chennisden on day four. Scum!DoubtingThomas may have nominated scum!Chennisden on day four.

6. Also based on the above, scum!Shoshin is very unlikely to bus scum!Scumreading today. Scum!Auro is very unlikely to bus scum!Scumreading today. Scum!DoubtingThomas may bus scum!Scumreading today.


The following scumteam combinations are ruled out on the basis of being very unlikely:


Any scumteam combination with Auro paired with Scumreading (Auro would push DoubtingThomas or Chennisden today if this were the case)

Any scumteam combination with Shoshin paired with Scumreading (Shoshin would push DoubtingThomas or Chennisden today if this were the case)

Any scumteam combination with Auro paired with Chennisden (Auro wanted to lynch Chennisden yesterday, and it came close to happening. And I don’t think that scum!Auro would nominate scum!Chennisden against Shoshin in any case, following the reasoning that scum!Auro does not need to bus to win this game.)

Any scumteam combination with Shoshin paired with Chennisden (Shoshin wanted to lynch Chennisden yesterday, and it came close to happening. This would also mean that 2/3 of the nominees were scum which is unlikely, following the reasoning that scum!Shoshin does not need to bus to win this game.)


Which leaves the following as the probable scumteams:


DoubtingThomas/Auro/Shoshin
DoubtingThomas/Chennisden/Scumreading


Either way DoubtingThomas being town doesn’t make sense.

[Alonzo]

Top one makes more sense

[Shoshin]

Okay, Volx. I have to deal with your errant mind yet again. Okay.

For starters, when you start making assumptions about behaviors, please make the least # of assumptions possible & choose assumptions that are most likely to apply with the highest probability. Don't make assumptions about things based on lots of speculation & low probabilities. I agree with you that Alonzo's very likely to be town, that's fine. But you shouldn't assume that me & Auro wouldn't bus. We're as likely to bus as not bus in this type of situation & it's impossible for you to know with high probability what's happening from a town perspective either way.

There's better assumptions to be made about this game that will help you solve with higher probability & less speculation. Let's go over these:

1. It's very unlikely for scum to nominate themselves because the risk is unnecessary & far outweighs the potential reward.

2. It's very unlikely for scum to self-nominate a member twice in a row after she almost got lynched the first time, especially when taking that risk is unnecessary to win.

3. In a 1v1 at LYLO, if scum haven't hammered one of the players after everyone has had a chance to post, one of the players in the 1v1 is very likely to be scum.

These assumptions are significantly higher probability than your speculations about bussing. What happens when you apply these assumptions to the game? They point to SR as scum 100% of the time.

I'll apply the assumptions for you so that I don't leave anything to your errant mind:

1. There's at least one scum between myself & SR because of the 1v1 at LYLO.

2. I'm very likely to be town because I was nominated twice in a row.

3. Therefore, SR is scum.

That's the analysis you should apply today because it's the highest percentage lynch. It doesn't require any speculation about bussing. It doesn't even require assumptions about Alonzo's alignment even though we obviously agree on that.

That said, let's talk about why your analysis fails even when applying your bussing assumptions. You say that scum Auro aligned with SR pushes DT or Chenn today. This is untrue because I forced the issue by voting SR. Auro had no choice but to vote between myself & SR, and given the fact that he could hammer me in the event that a townie votes me, he faces no risk whatsoever by placing a vote on SR while waiting to see what happens. Auro isn't clear.

The reason this matters is because it means Auro/SR/Chenn is still plausible. It's plausible enough that rather than vote DT you need to be lynching the highest percentage chance of hitting scum & that's SR in all cases. Again, my analysis requires fewer assumptions with less speculation & higher probability than yours, so please just follow my reasoning instead of allowing your mind to wander itself into making cognitive errors.

There's another thing you're not considering, which is the fact that you're not cleared as town by anyone except yourself. As such, you're not going to convince anyone with your analysis because your analysis assumes you're town, something that none of us know with certainty except you.

For those reasons, you need to be looking at lynching SR today.