Mini 2084: Pokemon Ruby Mafia - Game Over

[RedPanda]

I believe my reasoning is sound. I'd like to hear from creature.

[Klick]

He seems to really like Pokemon, I like him, seems like a cool fellar. Not sure what his rolecard is, could go either way, but I kinda feel like he's probably today's consensus lynch one way or the other and his flip is probably good for gamestate? I've kinda been waiting for everyone to feel kinda caught up before pushing for a claim but I haven't really seen a reason yet to go somewhere else tbh

I'm not happy with this. You're semi-confirmed town, your reads are vital. Don't settle - find reads and push them. Use your gut if you need to, it's usually more accurate than sound logic and we don't have reason to assume you're BSing.

[Detective Pikachu]

I'm not happy with this. You're semi-confirmed town, your reads are vital. Don't settle - find reads and push them. Use your gut if you need to, it's usually more accurate than sound logic and we don't have reason to assume you're BSing.

I'm semi-confirmed town and tomorrow I will probably be dead town and my reads will be just as valuable as any other dead town, which is to say they'll be totally ignored, but if there are still deep dive tunnels and major unresolved 1v1s then the game will be less readable for the living

[Klick]

At this point the Menalque/Gamma 1v1 is basically collapsing, with Gamma disillusioned and Menalque having doubts. From my perspective, the biggest reason it's still being pushed is because enough people have this perception that it's good for the gamestate. Not enough people actually have conviction in this being a wagon on scum - and that's really bothering me.

There is value in your reads. Of course there's value in town's reads. People might not look at them enough, but that doesn't mean there's no value.

[Detective Pikachu]

Yeah well both Tim and Creature thought Mena was the scum out of the two but it seems like some people liked the case on Cinnamon. A redflip on Gamma I think helps sort Mena for Creature and I'm not sure I'm particularly enthusiastic for pushing Mena scum right now despite Tim and Creature's reads so... idk.

[Menalque]

Here’s where I’m at:

I still really don’t like creature!town that everyone is reading. The fact he’s calling my read on him straight OMGUS when I’ve made it p clear that it was much more the way he defended gamma during my push and tried to redirect onto me. I would’ve read that as scummy regardless for how hard he was defending someone by attacking the person attacking them.

I think gamma has been townie recently but I still want him lynched.

In the game with luv i found him v scummy then weakened the read as the day went on and he got townier. Nearly talked myself out of it but stuck it because I figure that if someone knows they’re being SR then they can change their behaviour to what they think will be seen as towny, so the early stuff should be considered more AI can later day stuff. I was right last time on that logic, so I’m sticking to it, esp bc I think gamma/creature makes a lot of sense.

If I’m right there, then I think the third scum will prob be discoverable from their interactions with those two slots.

I don’t wanna compromise on gamma for today.

I don’t really think chem/ofhrz helps towards a solve at this point, but I think gamma does.

I don’t love that RP has changed his vote off and gone to “reread the game” based on what I thought was some not particularly deep interaction with klick, where klick wasn’t even particularly eating his game solve ability. I still think he’s p town but if gamma flips scum then that pings me.

Although if gamma flips town then I guess I’d be looking at the RP ISO anyway

I don’t wanna compromise on gamma for today. I don’t really think chem/ofhrz helps towards a solve at this point, but I think gamma does.

Consider these two hypotheticals:

1. Both Chemist and ofhrz are scum. Wouldn't lynching one of them almost certainly help towards a 'solve'?
2. You and Gamma are town. How many times out of 10 do you think this town decides not to lynch you before endgame?

I think it's less important to vote for someone whose hypothetical flip will most optimally position town to 'solve' the game, and more important to vote scum.

1. Yes, if they’re both scum then lynching one prob does help somewhat. The prob is that I don’t think it helps guide us through and I’m not seeing them both as scum, so I don’t think lynching one today at least is likely to lead to lynching the other tomorrow. I’m not sure where everyone else is on the slots though and right now i cba to go back through and search.

2. Like 7-8 probs? I think this town seems p competent and I don’t think competent town lynches me before endgame.

But the key point is that I think gamma is v likely scum.

I think that lynching him and a red flip means that you’ll start taking my creature scum read seriously, and from there I think we prob win after lynching creature post-gamma. If we lynch him and there’s a green flip then I’ve prob been going the wrong way and we go somewhere else (like chem & ofhrz).

Also idk why you’re putting solve in quotes?

I’m pretty much the same as RP,

I don’t see any world where I’d want creature lynched before gamma

I

still want the gamma lynch

but I would compromise onto PB I think

If PB flipped scum then I think gamma and creature are like 90% the scum team

I think if gamma flips scum then creature is solidly 95% scum but it leaves me a lot less sure about PB

At this point the Menalque/Gamma 1v1 is basically collapsing, with Gamma disillusioned and

Menalque having doubts

. From my perspective, the biggest reason it's still being pushed is because enough people have this perception that it's good for the gamestate. Not enough people actually have conviction in this being a wagon on scum - and that's really bothering me.

[snip]

where did I have doubts about wanting the gamma lynch? I can have doubts (as in, away from being 99%) without losing my SR or thinking that we're better off lynching anywhere else

[Klick]

I think most of this is NAI. Cinnamon was pretty obviously going through something IRL while playing this game based on his last few posts. That would sufficiently explain a change in behavior from active to passive and address almost everything in Menalque's case on him.

Actually it doesn't really. Cinnamon was in multiple concurrent games before he siteflaked

I fail to see how this is relevant. Unless you're arguing something about his behavior in those games, and I don't want to check whether or not those games are ongoing.

He siteflaked. He seemed to have a lot going on. If anything, being in multiple games at once would only add stress in that sort of situation and make him more passive.

[Klick]

Going on a walk, will respond later

[Klick]

Wait no I can respond to that real quick.

All I said was you had doubts. I didn't say you lost your scumread or that you want to lynch somewhere else. You're not disagreeing with me.

[Klick]

I have 4 votes on me and the summary of the case on me is that

1) I'm low activity which is fairly consistent across the site because of IRL Things

Compare this to the reasons Cinnamon is being scumread.

2) I voted RP because my scum partners told me to vote RedPanda in the PT (speaking of which, I have played scum with daychat a few times now and I've never been explicitly told to vote someone upon replace in)

Agreed that this is a stretch.

[Klick]

I feel better about menalque town and am cooling on gamma

Still prefer this though

VOTE: pink

I've been paranoid about them since the game started but I think he's not top priority.

If we agree that lynches should be in {ofrhz, Chemist, Menalque, RedPanda} I think we're into something. And by lynches I mean not only today. Of course we revaluate if we are wrong but I think that's a solid lynch pool, because of the townbloc that is implied with that. If we lynch Chemist and he flips scum I would trade ofrhz for another player, but more into that later.

This is pretty good but let’s not lynch me first

I’d vote gamma over menalque atp but pine needs to post more before we end the day

VOTE: gamma

I'm struggling to see your reads progression tbh.

[RedPanda]

Hello creature?

[RedPanda]

klick u are kondi. Hey!

[Klick]

Hello!

[Micc]

Votecount 2.08

ofrhz (3) -

Klick, RedPanda, Chemist1422

Gamma Emerald (3) -

Menalque, EspressoPatronum, ofrhz

Chemist1422 (1) -

Detective Pikachu

Menalque (1) -

Creature

EspressoPatronum (1) -

Gamma Emerald

Not Voting (2) -

Pine, Pink Ball

With 11 players alive it takes 6 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 2 is in (expired on 2019-07-19 09:05:00).

Prodding Creature.

[Menalque]

Wait no I can respond to that real quick.

All I said was you had doubts. I didn't say you lost your scumread or that you want to lynch somewhere else. You're not disagreeing with me.

I just felt like your phrasing was kinda manipulative to play down the gamma vs me situation which in turn makes it easier to deflect onto ofhrz.

Idk I still think you’re prob town but that really seemed off to me.

I also don’t like your thing about not enough people having conviction that gamma is scum. I mean, they’re voting him? And RP didn’t seem to me like he’s totally sold on gamma as town from what I remember so I just am not convinced that statement is true

[Menalque]

And I think my lists are pretty clear?

Town to scum, the gap is to make it abundantly clear who I think is actually scum at a given time vs who I’m just less sure on as town

[Menalque]

Talking of, here’s a new list

DP
pine
RP
EP
ofhrz
Chemist
Klick

PB
Creature
Gamma

[Pink Ball]

I really need Pine to come over 'cause I'm starting to reevaluate shit like fuck man Gamma and Creature could be scum together shit

[Creature]

If Gamma is town can be I locktowned?

[Creature]

Aw naw, locktowning me is pointless.

[Gamma Emerald]

I really need Pine to come over 'cause I'm starting to reevaluate shit like fuck man Gamma and Creature could be scum together shit

This after Menalque's list feels sketchy

[EspressoPatronum]

The Creature in this game feels different than the Creature in Newbie 1936. I can't put my finger on it though.

1936: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10983772

He's still just as active in this game, but it seems like he's producing less information compared to 1936.

[EspressoPatronum]

Not sure about offers as a wagon, will look him over for myself, as well as Chemist since those seem to be the consensus outside of me v Menalque

Following up on this. What did you come up with?

Fell asleep at my desk. Never mind, finish in the morning.

Gentle reminder on this. I know you're busy though, so take it as you will.

[EspressoPatronum]

Things seem to be slowing down. Are we waiting on anything in particular, or are we just at a standstill?

@DP, I believe we were working through a revisit on ISOs and reads. Do you think it's helpful to continue this in the down time? If so, who's next?