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Post Post #4925 (ISO) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:19 am

Post by AaronFrost »

In post 4917, texcat wrote:
PlayersStatusRoleDeath
Kop
Pine
Alive
Billy Pilgrim
Alive
Likely VT - rec'd fruit from Cliff
Cliff Booth
Dead
Town Loyal Simple Fruit Vendor
Lynched Day 4
Rick Dalton
Alive
Claims nonconsecutive doc
Sharon Tate
Alonzo
Dead
Town Macho
Lynched Day 2
Hectic
Alive
EeveeLution Army
Alive
Claims VT
Gamma Emerald
Dead
Town Mason Mailman
Killed Night 1
Judge Joseph Dredd
Dead
Town Disloyal Simple Fruit Vendor
Lynched Day 3
Elements
Dead
Town Macho Watcher
Lynched Day 1
Titus
Alive
Hopkirk
Alive
roosterfoster
gobbledygook
Dead
Mafia Traitor Rolecop Neighbor
Killed Night 2
Carcalilly
Alive
Ascetic mason
Garmr
Alive
Claims voyeur, but lied about N1 results
Tchill13
Blatant Scum
Dead
Town Tracker
Killed Night 3
davesaz
Alive
Innocent child
profii
Dead
Town Backup Tracker Neighbor
Killed Night 4
bob3141
Alive
Likely VT - rec'd fruit from Cliff
Skellen
AaronFrost
Alive
YouAreGreat
texcat
Alive


I didn't include Hectic's miller survivor claim. Did I miss any others? Town certainly looks overpowered. Overpowered and not doing very well so far.
You missed my VT claim
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Post Post #4926 (ISO) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:01 am

Post by Carcalilly »

In post 4915, texcat wrote:
In post 4888, Carcalilly wrote:
In post 4869, Garmr wrote:Sigh I didn't know if doctor existed back then it could of been a jailkeeper ect. I wanted scum to hunt a imaginary doctor and not shoot the mason it's fucking simple. I didn't expect the actual real doctor/protective role to be fucking stupid.
I'm buying this with a grain of salt all due to Gamma's mail. Gamma thought he had you figured out so I'd assume you knew we were legit once we contacted you. So I fully understand why you would've done that.
What does this mean? Did Gamma Emerald send Garmr mail on N1? Are you sure the mail went through or did Gamma Emerald die before he mailed it? Can you tell us what the mail said?
I do not know exactly what the note said, but I knew that gamma had suspected that garmr crumbed to him, and it may have been some kind of confirmation question.
And I'm sure it went through because he responded to it before I mentioned it.

Would it be too much, garmr, to tell us more about the exact contents of the mail if im missing anything?
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Post Post #4927 (ISO) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:02 am

Post by Carcalilly »

hectic, quit cruising >:0
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Post Post #4928 (ISO) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:04 am

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The mail was basically asking if I power role and to give a reply to signal I am. I thought if I out myself and pretend there was a doctor protecting Carcalilly then scum won't shoot her. Because I got no result which I mistaken for no visits I thought we had no doctor role and maybe a jail keeper more interested in trying to stop scum.

So the gambit was all me. Also I would of doc gamma because he was the more likely kill since Lilly seemed more obvious to the average player. Also I like gamma because I played with him a bit and we never clashed.
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Post Post #4929 (ISO) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:19 am

Post by Hopkirk »

So just Pine, Titus, Tex, Hectic to claim. We should get those claims today since we're looking closely at all of them.

Bob is town unless scum have a tracker. If scum have a tracker Bob only goes into the possible scum pool (many more likely scum remain). I wouldn't consider voting there unless we lynched a scum (backup?) tracker.

Garmr's claim feels like an odd role for scum to have. I'm still townreading there based on attitude/tone as earlier. Only scum explanation I can see there is scum have the backup watcher and Garmr's been getting legit no results from it. There's enough people I don't think flip scum with Garmr that I don't really see scumteams possible here.

Looking at the possible scumpool it just feels like the scum have had no impact this game. Looking at the Rooster kill feels like they weren't even reading.
I'm struggling to see Hectic deciding to kill Rooster there unless someone was really pushing hard for it.
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Post Post #4930 (ISO) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:21 am

Post by Hopkirk »

That should read Gobble not Rooster. Trying to count chickens offshoots after they've been buried has proven to be unexpectedly difficult.
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Post Post #4931 (ISO) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:34 am

Post by Hopkirk »

Texcat didn't really post anything after the Alonzo lynch. Lack of follow up on Eevee there makes me doubt his committal to the lynch. Kop flips scum if Tex does.

@Texcat: how do you read Hectic? You haven't expressed a read on him this game. How do you feel about Eevee and Titus?
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Post Post #4932 (ISO) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:35 am

Post by Hopkirk »

Lack of any actions used on me (assuming Garmr truth with seems reasonable) is more likely in cases where Hectic is scum as scum would know I wasn't an investigative (as I'd implied Hectic/Garmr as town)
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Post Post #4933 (ISO) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:41 am

Post by Hopkirk »

@Hectic: Based on your reads if I'm scum then I've been pushing my scumpartners for 90% of the game.
We've discussed in the past several times that I'm not a fan of bussing so why does that seem likely to you now?

Why do you think I'd rely 100% on the towntell when you haven't flipped scum yet on MS?
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Post Post #4934 (ISO) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:59 am

Post by Hopkirk »

In post 4512, Hectic wrote:
@LUV:
If you're replacing Kop, don't you need to post you're looking for a replacement in the replacement queue?
Kop also more likely to flip scum if Hectic does. It feels off that Hectic went to check this (though the joke made me laugh) when he wasn't posting any content.
Also Hectic keeping his vote on Cliff while saying 'let's wait until the replacement to end the day'.

Hectic normally actually does some content at some point and I don't think I've seen anything in the last two-three weeks. I can only account for like five-seven days of that time. D4 he still doesn't have clear reads on pretty much any of his possible partners.
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Post Post #4935 (ISO) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:01 pm

Post by Hopkirk »

Assuming 4 scum we have what 2 mislynches left.
Assuming 5 scum (seems unlikely but can someone else verify this as I might have missed something and I don't make MS setups) we have 1 mislynch.

I'm happy to lynch the pool of 5 and work from there.
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Post Post #4936 (ISO) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:35 pm

Post by Hectic »

In post 4927, Carcalilly wrote:hectic, quit cruising >:0
Cruising is so much fun though.
My following of this game has been very poor. There came a point where I gave up on reading everything (around page 40 or 50 maybe), and only tried to read the important stuff, and keep up to date about claims.
Was relatively busy today and will be tomorrow too. Saturday's when I'll have the time to read back to give better reads.

@Hop: The thing I find odd is you putting me in your pool of 5 while leaving Rick/Texcat/Someone else? out while saying you're putting me there for PoE reasons. I think scum!you is doing this to not get called out for your buddying, and since you need another townie to mislynch given how many scum are probably gonna be lynched from your perspective.
You don't usually bus but do when needed. Kop is one of those cases. I would think it scummy if you were defending Kop for whatever reason.
Also R.
And yes, I townlean Aaron for the meta stuff you presented earlier.
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Post Post #4937 (ISO) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:39 pm

Post by Hectic »

In post 4550, Hectic wrote:I've got an insane role lined up to claim. Took me a solid few months of extensive wiki readings, and a few PhDs on surrounding topics for me to fully understand my role.
YIITOTVVBLMFCADHATIAZOTGTOA
Here's my claim, friends ^
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Post Post #4938 (ISO) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:42 pm

Post by Hectic »

Damn, this website is slower than the USSR-wiki on Thanksgiving.
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Post Post #4939 (ISO) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:50 pm

Post by Hectic »

More on Hop:
Why is weird for me to look to see if Kop is getting replaced? I wanted to see if he was gonna be replaced by the deadline. How is it scum-indicative?
Also, why does it matter if I kept my vote on Cliff while we waited for Kop? He was L-2, there was no reason for me to remove my vote.
You know I've been very loose with this game, as should be evident with my questions on past events. I'm playing in the moment more than referencing past things. Though I know that's lazy and not very useful to town, but that's a separate argument.

Feels like he's reaching with a lot of these.

Don't remember who I'm voting for but I'm gonna do this till my Saturday endeavor:
VOTE: Hopkirk
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Post Post #4940 (ISO) » Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:25 pm

Post by davesaz »

It's eerie how those two post around the same time of day a lot.
<looks at location fields>
Oh, um never mind.
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Post Post #4941 (ISO) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:48 am

Post by Billy Pilgrim »

VOTE: Titus

Enough stalling. Wheres your claim. You too Pine. Tex can go last.
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Post Post #4942 (ISO) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:42 am

Post by Carcalilly »

In post 4940, davesaz wrote:It's eerie how those two post around the same time of day a lot.
<looks at location fields>
Oh, um never mind.
there's a random selection of people here who posted a lot at like 1/2 AM for me and it's pretty wild
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Post Post #4943 (ISO) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:44 am

Post by Carcalilly »

In post 4932, Hopkirk wrote:Lack of any actions used on me (assuming Garmr truth with seems reasonable) is more likely in cases where Hectic is scum as scum would know I wasn't an investigative (as I'd implied Hectic/Garmr as town)
This is such a huge 180 turn I'm afraid you have whiplash. Was your previous hectic read just a joke? Is it soley the time pressure? Was it really that easy to convince you otherwise?
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Post Post #4944 (ISO) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:58 am

Post by Hopkirk »

My previous hectic read was a good townread that I didn't revisit, that I joked was a 100% read. It was more like 70-80% town.

On a reread of lots of stuff that changed. I very frequently reassess reads. See basically any of my games to see hard town/scumreads move between the two.

I convinced myself otherwise after reisoing 6/7 people, some of them 2-3 times.
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Post Post #4945 (ISO) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:25 am

Post by Carcalilly »

awesome. Mind explaining your thought process on the correlation you being alive and hectic being scum? Is it just because you had town read him?
or is it primarily the PoE? I can understand that, but is that primarily it?
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Post Post #4946 (ISO) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:26 am

Post by Hopkirk »

Nothing to do with how I read him.

- I was strongly implying an innocent on him (and maybe garmr)which also would lead him to believe I'm VT.
- Garmr says mafia didn't target me with kills, roleblocked etc the following night.
- the above is more likely to occur if mafia either don't have a roleblocker/way around cop OR if either hectic or Garmr is scum as they'd know I'm not a cop. Scum teams excluding them wouldn't have the same information as they'd see me getting two possible cop results that were actually true.

This didn't factor into my read change on Hectic as I thought of this after my read changed
I'll explain the read change part when I'm not toilet phone posting.
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Post Post #4947 (ISO) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:48 am

Post by AaronFrost »

In post 4859, Hectic wrote:Hopkirk + Titus + Kop are my top scumreads for now. The only non-confirmed person that I'm not scumleaning/reading is Aaron and Garmr, though Aaron's claim of a Hectic-Hopkirk scumpair is slightly dodgy.
How is the me associated you/Hop dodgy?
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Post Post #4948 (ISO) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:53 am

Post by AaronFrost »

Tinfoil hat theory is telling me that Hopkirk and Hectic are bussing right now but I don't really have any solid evidence for it. I think at least one of them are scum though.
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Post Post #4949 (ISO) » Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:56 am

Post by texcat »

In post 4919, davesaz wrote:In particular what does it tell you about scum?
I love the pedantic and condescending Socratic method, and so will play along.

Let's start with the doc situation first. The presence of the Macho players would tend to indicate a protective role (although I've certainly played in games where the mod just threw that in as a red herring). The fact that Rick, our claimed doc, is still alive would make me think that scum have a strong arm that can kill through protection. Or they have a roleblocker to block him every night. Of course, Rick could be fake claiming, either as scum or as town trying to protect the doc, and if scum know that, it would also explain his being alive.

The scum have killed the tracker and the backup tracker. So I'm guessing that if they have a ninja, it's not the same person as their strong arm and they prefer to kill with the strong arm.

I would normally think that scum would have a rolecop of some sort, but the traitor was a rolecop. Perhaps they might have a vanilla cop of some sort.

And JJD's role would indicate that there is at least one goon.
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