Open 769: Venrob's PYP X/Y (Town Wins)

[Sirfetchd]

I'd like Sirfetchd to answer this

What do you learn from my flip?

You had a much more tumultuous day 1. Like given the fact that I have one real scum read who isn't getting lynched bc scum killed the other person who believed in it and they were the competing wagon to a scum flip (which I have explained already why that gives zero points either way on alignment) means I have to go for what feels like the best Lynch of wagons I don't believe in.

There hasn't really been compelling reasons either way. The only wagon today with any bite to it has been flub.

[Sirfetchd]

Like I don't have qualms with lynching nom by end of day, but there's a fair amount of day left and at the moment I think Aaron gives more in retrospect.

This is already changing with the vehemence of opposition to Aaron's wagon and the lack of vehemence to nom's. Which is reading more and more like it's either WKing or protecting a buddy, all of which is just more reasoning as to why Aaron is better than nom today.

Also @ducky, I am beginning to think you've forgotten my main.

[Wooper]

i'm not sure how well i'm meant to know/not know you sirfy

[Sirfetchd]

Considering you were in a good 80-90% of my games before I retired for a bit I would say probably best out of anyone who hasn't deep dived me.

[Something_Smart]

This conversation





My head

[Wooper]

more accurately am i meant to be pretending i don't know you well because anonymity

btw just noting aaron/flubs as cws
flubs is objectively a very silly cw for d2

allowing skitter/luca are like my strongest townreads the noms wagon feels prety well motivated - like ngl if there's scum pushing it i'd put it at aaron or flubs. :p

can you see evil intent in the noms wagon/counterwagons? or just the kinda meh resistance that's pinging?

[Sirfetchd]

I had to reveal my main bc I was asking questions about team mafia and the mods were like who are you.

I'm not saying flub is a good wagon, I'm saying its the only one where reasoning has made me actually believe it's going to flip red thanks to Luca. But like, we have lynches in the bag to spend so w/e. I know Xayah and flub aren't happening.

Well I felt Xayah wagon was town pushed too, the xayah wagon is fairly similar to the nom one in terms of core vocal people. But that fell off the face of the earth, so that means I have to rethink on motivations. I think it's entirely possible one of Luca or you is playing the rest of the vocal people right now. Like the fact that Billy was, in hindsight, a really bussable target for lynching means the motivation shift post skitter is entirely suspect despite being a red flip.

[Sirfetchd]

This conversation





My head

Take a guess at me, we've played a few games. I'll give you a hint. I am fairly sure I've hated playing with you in the past.

[Wooper]

listmods know who alllll the alts are; i'm still gonna keep it lowkey unless you tell me to act otherwise
wrt meta i'm aware this is different from how you've played previously but it's also not clearing / an expansion of scumrange; just different

given aaron is softing TPR you sure you want him more than noms? could you just grab the last 10 posts from noms' iso and talk me thru how you see them coming from town?

[Sujimichi]

listmods know who alllll the alts are

Yes, we do.

[Sirfetchd]

I'm seeing mentally checked out rather than defensive. It's defeatist yeah, but is that scummy?

idk maybe, Like I can see it esp with a scum flipped already.

My understanding of the mentality is that it is a two horse race at this point, and as one of the horses it's out of their control so it's either nom gets lynched or Aaron does. Not everyone has a predilection to play harder int hat situation.

My choice here is purely imaginary maths net gain calculations.

[Something_Smart]

Take a guess at me, we've played a few games. I'll give you a hint. I am fairly sure I've hated playing with you in the past.

People who've hated playing with me... :thonk:

Pops?

[Flubbernugget]

Fetched all this talk about optimal lynches w/o just trying to hit scum is a bad look

[Wooper]

I'm seeing mentally checked out rather than defensive. It's defeatist yeah, but is that scummy?

idk maybe, Like I can see it esp with a scum flipped already.

My understanding of the mentality is that it is a two horse race at this point, and as one of the horses it's out of their control so it's either nom gets lynched or Aaron does. Not everyone has a predilection to play harder int hat situation.

My choice here is purely imaginary maths net gain calculations.

huh... i still think she looks like scum, i'm not all that interested in optimising outside of hitting vt>prs

[Sirfetchd]

I have been clear on my reads and you and xayah aren't on the table. What you expecting me to do? Make the entire thing more convoluted by not working with other people? Bc that's much worse.


PEDIT
I would say there's a subset of useful roles and they should all be gone before Aaron gets a chance at any, so I don't see the difference.

[AaronFrost]

I would say there's a subset of useful roles and they should all be gone before Aaron gets a chance at any, so I don't see the difference.

That's all theoretical though and it really depends on what people pick. The argument shouldn't be 'what kinds of roles Aaron might or might not be able to get' because we've already gotten our roles. What matters is what role I actually got, and like the wooperduck said, I have already softed my role

[Wooper]

aaron is like
fifth place
i think it's kinda disingenuous to say he should be lynched because there's a lower probability of him being a town power role despite the fact he's softing being one vs. noms who placed second-last and has claimed vt and is borderline lolcatting

i'm not really following your reasoning wrt solving; it's kinda like you're just throwing thoughts out there

[Kerset]

In my opinion 5th spot is gives him fair chance to be powerful but in negative way. I am a little bit scared that he specifically asked for one more night ("until at least tomorrow") and it's actually N2.

[skitter30]

Like given the fact that I have one real scum read who isn't getting lynched bc scum killed the other person who believed in it and they were the competing wagon to a scum flip (which I have explained already why that gives zero points either way on alignment) means I have to go for what feels like the best Lynch of wagons I don't believe in.

Can u say this again but like really slowly?

[Kerset]

I am more afraid that we might leave power scum for one more night, that we might lose town power.

[skitter30]

This is already changing with the vehemence of opposition to Aaron's wagon

Where do you see this happening

[skitter30]

Sirfetched i'm confused why ur so vehemently opposed to nom

[Sirfetchd]

Like given the fact that I have one real scum read who isn't getting lynched bc scum killed the other person who believed in it and they were the competing wagon to a scum flip (which I have explained already why that gives zero points either way on alignment) means I have to go for what feels like the best Lynch of wagons I don't believe in.

Can u say this again but like really slowly?

This is already changing with the vehemence of opposition to Aaron's wagon

Where do you see this happening

Sirfetched i'm confused why ur so vehemently opposed to nom

1. Xayah and flub aren't getting lycnhed today, ergo, I can't Lynch a scum read today.
2. nom wagon is people very eager to Lynch nom and only nom. Aaron wagon is people that are mostly k, but what about this guy that is going to be more dangerous. The aggression on lynching nom is much larger than the aggression for the Lynch on Aaron.
3. I'm not? I have said I will move my vote if required at end of day and quote two is my explanation of why I am warming to the idea of voting nom. Dumb questions like this are why I was scum reading you for the entirety of day 1.

[Wooper]

In my opinion 5th spot is gives him fair chance to be powerful but in negative way. I am a little bit scared that he specifically asked for one more night ("until at least tomorrow") and it's actually N2.

not sure how much i should be talking abt my tinfoil theory quiteeeeeee yet but this has been noted

[Sujimichi]

Ok. I'm going back to being my normal self because obviously I'm bad at it.

It's defeatist yeah, but is that scummy?

I've heard that it's a scum tactic to reverse a wagon, but have not seen it in practice.

Fetched all this talk about optimal lynches w/o just trying to hit scum is a bad look

I agree. However, I am liking Sirfetchd a little more based on posting this page.