Micro 914: CultD3 (Over)

[ObviousScum]

I think no lynch is town (or at least not CL) because he clearly doesn't give a shit what people think about him. It's the same reason Hectic is probably cult. He cares too much what people think of him, or at least that's what his behavior looks like to me. I will acknowledge that I am a decent paranoia lynch, but that that makes me a better lynch later game when I'm likely to have been recruited, not least because I have enough strategic prowess that even assuming I'll be lynched on D2 I'd still be a solid addition to a cult team.

I was thinking this is kinda a weird thought process for cl but maybe not

[Farkran]

Farkran: sh0s claimed Freindly neighbour, Korina is mechanically confirmed tracker. One of Poyzin/sh0s is lying. I think Poyzin's a lot more likely to be telling the truth as his rolestopper claim is very risky as scum for reasons I gave earlier. Sh0s CCing as scum likely means he's trying to protect Bangle who was on L-1 at the time. That's the summary and my thoughts on it, mostly.

It's not just that. Poyzin claimed first, so he wouldn't know who the other roles are. This means he could be counterclaimed by: another rolestopper, FN or jailkeeper. None of this happened - instead, he got a confirm from korina.

Moreover, he could have been counterclaimed IMMEDIATELY by a real FN or Rolestopper. None of this happened. The counterclaim arrived only MUCH later, by the 7th player posting itt after Poyzin claim, conveniently when Bingle got to L-1.

[Not A Korina Alt]

Here's where I'm at:
Cult automatically knows it's B-Column. It's very likely they picked up on my crumbs, considering I literally stated I was going to track BS at one point, and knew they couldn't claim Tracker. That leaves Rolestopper, Jailkeeper, Friendly Neighbor. Only one person could've CC'd it since hypothetically, they knew I was Tracker. Rolestopper is the best option to claim out of those, because that means they can make everyone think that I'm not gonna get culted, when in reality, they go to cult me.

Poyzin had about two days before deadline and no immediate L-1, making his claim look somewhat out of place? And if we're going to go into the chance he picks something that won't get directly CC'd, he has a 66% chance of doing so, so I'd say it's more likely Poyzin just randomly picked something off of the B-Column and claimed it, hoping for the best. Looking at shos's posting, he's been pretty inactive as a whole. Yes, he's been posting elsewhere, but he posted eleven times yesterday. Eleven. They were also one or two posts at a time, and practically all of them, (except two), are from Autobattler Mafia, and all those posts are very short. So yes, I believe it's more likely shos genuinely wasn't reading when Poyzin claimed, and that Poyzin just got lucky.

[Not A Korina Alt]

Had I not crumbed as hard as I did, I wouldn't have outted. But I felt that because I crumbed so hard, I needed to tell Poyzin to be on me. Stating "Poyzin, be on me. I have my reasons why cult would wanna recruit me" practically confirms me as a PR, and gets people searching my ISO for crumbs.

[Farkran]

By the way, @everyone who thinks poyzin is the likely liar here

Could you explain to me the sheer chances that cult!poyzin claims rolestopper and out of 2 potential counterclaims in 6 people, no one steps up to CC him and instead gets a confirm, then SUDDENLY A CC POPS UP WHEN BINGLE IS AT L-1?

Just tell me how likely it is. How fucking lucky would poyzin have been to get
1. A role which would be plausible with korina role
2. 6 people to post itt without anyone counterclaiming
3. A counterclaim popping up ONLY when bingle is at L-1

And compare it to how convenient it is for the bingle/shos team to do that.

1) Very likely. I literally crumbed/stated I was going to watch BS. Plus Cult knows it's B-Column, since they have Rolecop.
2) Considering they're aiming for only one person to CC, it's debatable considering they know I won't be CCing it. I'd be confirming it.
3) Shos's activity site-wide has been low, so I'd believe shos only started reading the game again today.

Korina. I understand you think your best chances are to win with cult, but really the optimal play for you is trying to lynch the CL today. Stop playing anti-town. The chances that Poyzin found out your crumb are very low and you know it - besides, point 3 is just grasping because the chances of a lurker being the correct counterclaim to poyzin were only 2/8. Anyone else would have counterclaimed poyzin immediately.

[Not A Korina Alt]

Fark, I literally stated I wanted to "see about checking him [NL] tonight." Tell me, what does that imply to you that I am? Because it certainly doesn't imply I'm a VT.

[Not A Korina Alt]

If I'm a VT, why wouldn't I say something like "I'll re-read the game tonight and tell you in the morning"? Why do I explicitly state I will check him tonight?

[Not A Korina Alt]

But y'know what? Fine.
VOTE: Bingle

If this flips town, shos is town 100%.
It won't matter at that point because I'm culted, and I'm gonna make the game unreadable by openwolfing, but, I really don't care.

[Not A Korina Alt]

If this somehow is CL, we don't talk for the rest of the game. We'll start by lynching shos, and then Poyzin.
There is no need to discuss anything in that.
Ok?
Ok. Good talk team.

[Farkran]

At the very least, I and OS (704) did not catch it. It doesn't seem like anyone else caught it. Why would you assume Poyzin did? And then there's still point 3.

[Not A Korina Alt]

Fark, just powerlynch Bingle. That's all we gotta do.

[Not A Korina Alt]

If that's CL, we powerlynch shos, then Poyzin and win.

[Not A Korina Alt]

At this point, I don't really care. I just want a flip, because that'll help me mechanically solve the rest of the game.

[Not A Korina Alt]

Or I get culted because Poyzin is a liar. Either works for me, but I'd have more fun if Poyzin is a liar, because then I openwolf.

[Farkran]

Agreed. L-2 i think?

[Not A Korina Alt]

@mod vc please

@everyone, powerlynch bingle please.

@Poyzin, you're on me tonight.

@Shos, you're also on me tonight.

[Not A Korina Alt]

Either I get a FN notification, or I don't.

[Not A Korina Alt]

If I don't get one, we lynch Shos.
If I do get one, we lynch Poyzin.

[Not A Korina Alt]

I'm also aiming to find CL, because I'm skeptical Bingle flips CL.

[ObviousScum]

Either I get a FN notification, or I don't.

If you want the rolestopper on you in a world of poy town it makes no sense to ask scum sho to fn you

Sho should fn someone random I think

[Farkran]

@Shos, you're also on me tonight.

No you aren't. If you are a true FN, korina is culted n1.

[ObviousScum]

Korina what do u think of fark cl?

[Blatant Scum]

Was poyzin at L-1 when he claimed or no?

Yes.

[Blatant Scum]

Was poyzin at L-1 when he claimed or no?

Yes.

Ahh, you ment poy. IDK.

[Blatant Scum]

Was poyzin at L-1 when he claimed or no?

Yes.

Was poyzin at L-1 when he claimed or no?

Yes.

Ahh, you ment poy. IDK.

Just pretend I never posted it, please.