Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Farkran]

Hmm... very wary of psyche nullread on replica... his posts are improved, though. I could still buy a Psyche/replica solve, so i think i'm leaving my hurt vote there.

@Amrun why almidia? I... mostly skipped almidia. Can i get a scumcase? I'll verify later - i'd place almidia in the same rank as nacho now, i.e. i'd like to talk to them but they're nowhere to be found.

[Amrun]

Alimdia is NOT v/la. I think we can flashwagon some content there.

I don’t really have a case but even though the slot has produced an OK amount of content, they managed not to comment on a lot of significant actions and goings on.

My PoE narrows and alimdia is firmly in it.

[Farkran]

if u turn out to be scum amrum i will experience a catharsis unheard of since st paul was restored the power of sight

What do you mean with this? You commented Amrun as "hmm" in your readlist, and she wasn't included in your spare list

[Psyche]

i wonder if i could compute an EV comparing a blind spare strategy against a blind lynch strategy and from there try to guess the relative value of differently confident townreads against differently confident scumreads in this game

meh there's no way i get that done before deadline

[Amrun]

V/LA 24 hours - glad we bumped up 8 pages in the last day tho

I forgot they posted this but this has expired so they should be back. They produced content right before this. So they’ve been largely present but sidestepping significant happenings.


There does seem to be an element of limited access but I think since that has ended, a wagon can nicely motivate some content.

[Farkran]

i wonder if i could compute an EV comparing a blind spare strategy against a blind lynch strategy and from there try to guess the relative value of differently confident townreads against differently confident scumreads in this game

meh there's no way i get that done before deadline

Results are balanced, but that's not the point - the lack of flip info and therefore no VCA is the problem. Rewards are not worth giving up info - in most cases, it only requires 1 spared mafia to lead to catastrophical results such as 1-spared and 3-spared. 4-spared is not fancy either, if i understand correctly what the princess role involves.

Misfighting town on the other hand, even assuming we will do very poorly, provides us with 4 failures (11p > 9p > 7p > 5p lylo), with an instant victory in case of 2 successful fights (same as 4 successful spares).

[Psyche]

who needs information with a D1 this juicy

[Farkran]

who needs information with a D1 this juicy

Mafia has night kills, you know. And no protection available. Either suji or sherlock are dying tonight, regardless of how we decide to end the day. If hectic is actually town, he's going to die soon as well. Even if we can line up exactly 4 town players to spare, by day 3-4 that list is going to be drastically different than today's. And that's where this strategy becomes a catastrophical failure, because the chances of sparing mafia will be vastly higher and we will have zero info to work with besides NKA.

Even if we switch from spare to fight in d3, achieving a 2-2 scenario, it's not better than having lynched the two previous days.

[Amrun]

I agree with Farkran. I would prefer to only spare FN, and not today.

[Sujimichi]

I am very uncomfortable with how the read on me has developed and the continued discussion surrounding it, and my motivation to play has decreased as a result. I am not voting with Amrun today, but I will check back in closer to the deadline.

[Psyche]

Suppose we just keep going until the well of we're-never-gonna-lynch-these-dudes townreads is dry and then get back to lynching. Are we really in a worse state than if we lynched our (frankly) much weaker scumreads in all that time?

That's not a rhetorical question, I'm either bad or lazy at math or both.

[Farkran]

Suppose we just keep going until the well of we're-never-gonna-lynch-these-dudes townreads is dry and then get back to lynching. Are we really in a worse state than if we lynched our (frankly) much weaker scumreads in all that time?

That's not a rhetorical question, I'm either bad or lazy at math or both.

Yes, because 1. No info, 2. Chance to have already spared scum.

[Sujimichi]

Either suji or sherlock are dying tonight, regardless of how we decide to end the day.

I do not really like this comment at all as it either reflects a subconscious understanding or Farkran assumes to know what Mafia's plan is to be. Even if one supposes that both myself and SherlockHolmes are universally read as Town, there are reasons why we would not be the targeted kill for tonight. I may be reading too much into it, but it is not a good comment.

[Farkran]

Either suji or sherlock are dying tonight, regardless of how we decide to end the day.

I do not really like this comment at all as it either reflects a subconscious understanding or Farkran assumes to know what Mafia's plan is to be. Even if one supposes that both myself and SherlockHolmes are universally read as Town, there are reasons why we would not be the targeted kill for tonight. I may be reading too much into it, but it is not a good comment.

No, there aren't. Unless you planned that comment ahead of time and you are specifically scum together with sherlock. Which is as unlikely as unlikely can get.

And that's not even the point - replace suji and sherlock with two unanimously consensus townreads named player A and B. There's no protection = one of them dies tonight. And this is why sparing is bad.

[Sujimichi]

I also do not like that Farkran has given up on his theory and hard push that there was Mafia on his wagon and he was being pushed as an easy, "lurker" mislynch. It makes me think that he never genuinely believed that to be the case.

[Psyche]

I guess from my point of view, our likely spare priorities through the end of Day 3 have super low odds of being scum, and given that, the need for more information is negligible since the game is basically won.

[Sujimichi]

Either suji or sherlock are dying tonight, regardless of how we decide to end the day.

I do not really like this comment at all as it either reflects a subconscious understanding or Farkran assumes to know what Mafia's plan is to be. Even if one supposes that both myself and SherlockHolmes are universally read as Town, there are reasons why we would not be the targeted kill for tonight. I may be reading too much into it, but it is not a good comment.

No, there aren't. Unless you planned that comment ahead of time and you are specifically scum together with sherlock. Which is as unlikely as unlikely can get.

And that's not even the point - replace suji and sherlock with two unanimously consensus townreads named player A and B. There's no protection = one of them dies tonight. And this is why sparing is bad.

Could you explain why confirmed Masons and Innocent Children in the absence of protective roles (living or non-existent) make it to the endgame on occasion then?

[Psyche]

I guess another hidden assumption in my pov is that we are shitty scumhunters with shitty scumreads who will mislynch a lot of people without really gaining much new information about who's scum by D4. Maybe that's too cynical? It might be too cynical. We do (probably) have nacho after all.

[Farkran]

I also do not like that Farkran has given up on his theory and hard push that there was Mafia on his wagon and he was being pushed as an easy, "lurker" mislynch. It makes me think that he never genuinely believed that to be the case.

691

[Sujimichi]

I read the post, Farkran, thank you. It comes across as more of a required explanation to shift your viewpoint than a genuine re-evaluation of your viewpoint as your reasons for not shifting your focus to one of the other three are weak.

[Farkran]

Could you explain why confirmed Masons and Innocent Children in the absence of protective roles (living or non-existent) make it to the endgame on occasion then?

This only happens in Normals or otherwise closed setups where scum is afraid of protectives, although they may not exist in the first place - you only learn this postgame or after massclaims. Or, when said massclaims (or rolecop results, or anything else of the sort) reveal the existance of more threatening roles such as investigatives or vigilantes.

If you have ever seen a game where an IC is not killed within the circumstances i described, please point it out - i think the mafia there was just bad.

[Farkran]

I read the post, Farkran, thank you. It comes across as more of a required explanation to shift your viewpoint than a genuine re-evaluation of your viewpoint as your reasons for not shifting your focus to one of the other three are weak.

Ok, different angle: where is my scum motivation in switching my lynchpool of players to those offwagon? Assuming i am scum, i can have one partner bussing me on wagon. Remove you as conftown, that leaves two players i would have no issues pushing as mislynches.

[Sujimichi]

On re-evaluation, my stances have changed somewhat. If we are Fighting today, I would like to Fight Farkran or Amrun. If we are Sparing, I would like to Spare myself. I have decided I do not want to Spare anyone else. I believe I prefer Fighting my two preferred Fights over Sparing today, but I prefer Sparing over Fighting anyone else.

HURT: Amrun

[Sujimichi]

I read the post, Farkran, thank you. It comes across as more of a required explanation to shift your viewpoint than a genuine re-evaluation of your viewpoint as your reasons for not shifting your focus to one of the other three are weak.

Ok, different angle: where is my scum motivation in switching my lynchpool of players to those offwagon? Assuming i am scum, i can have one partner bussing me on wagon. Remove you as conftown, that leaves two players i would have no issues pushing as mislynches.

I do not believe you would successfully push anyone on that list as a mislynch other than myself, and you have been given the opportunity to move elsewhere (see: voting with Amrun to "hold her accountable").

[Psyche]

if you want i can pretend i think ur town bc of that vote i do like it even if i have no idea if it's right or not