In post 1072, Homura wrote:Mena, under the hypothetical that Luciano is town, do you think I or Titus would be the most likely partner for scum!Wooper?
you not being who I thought you were changes the equation slightly, but idk if it makes you townier or scummier
I'll try to stop judging you as much based on meta
as for the question, I'm not sure. I find it weird that wooper + Titus are now townreading each other sorta? but LL is much more plausible scum still so I'm not entertaining that possibility unless my lynch becomes inevitable and I have to try to give more nuanced reads to potentially help you guys tomorrow
It might not be half a year — I don't quite recall. Who else do you know who's bad with votecounts?
hmm, this actually makes me less sure again. maybe I was right the first time in who I thought. I'm probably gonna PM you post game with a guess if that's cool
was the completed game we had "flawless" -- as in we lynched scum D1 and D2 to win?
t's important to note that with every lynch and every NK the number of players alive decreases. That means we have more alignment-locks through dead players, and we can look back at past interactions as 100% tvt, tvs, or svs, because we know they are
. That limits the amount of interactions we have to look at to solve the game. Menalque has demonstrated in 1036 that he engages in long-term thinking while playing. That's why
I
know that
he
knows to take into consideration the fact that the landscape of the game will be different next dp than this one. That's why I believe his answer to my question was disingenuous. If he never thinks long-term, then maybe as town he really is focused on this DP and survival. However,
he has actively shown that he is indeed thinking about how the game will play out in the following DPs
, so survival is not the only component of his decision-making. Why is he implicitly thinking long-term when attacking me, but default to a survivalist mentality when I ask him to conceptualize the long-term from a town perspective?
NB: IIOA at the beginning, not actually producing anything
it doesn't change the number of interactions that need to be looked at either
obviously I think long term, this is a terrible argument. again, if I'm asked to entertain a hypothetical, I'll do so, even if being asked to do so by someone I think is scum -- the whole premise is there in the term "hypothetical" given that I don't see myself as infallible. to try to characterise this as a "survivalist mentality" because I didn't go HA BUT YOU CANNOT BE SCUM, YOU SCUMBAG, AND YOUR QUESTION PRESUPPOSES A WORLD THAT DOTH NOT EXIST AND I AM NOT FALLING FOR YOUR GAMES is just exceptionally "bruh" worthy if town but again, really seems more likely scum
In post 1093, Crush wrote:LL is making points that feel very valid to me, the only red thing about LL is that he feels too sure about his reads and I don't think I can lynch him, just on that.
what feels valid about the points he's making? can you highlight to me what seems like legit reasoning?
whoever scum is, I think they've played well this game given that I think I'm still getting mislynched despite how obvtown I've been and people aren't really seeming to want to listen to me/talk to me
not 100% sure if that means I'm wrong and scum are actually far more comfortable than I thought, or if I'm right and scum are okay because most people are hard TRing at least one of them
newbies: I'm going to flip town, so this post is more to be read after the fact. This game is probably going to be a loss, sorry. When things seem in stasis like this, it means things are probably going well for scum, because the gamestate -- the general way people are pushing, activity levels in the thread etc -- is quite static. In general, scum are aiming for a gamestate where they're in control, where they get to direct which mislynches happen in order to set up for an optimal lylo situation. If you're town, what you should be doing is trying to interrogate the gamestate and be active and probing. Part of the reason this game is going so badly for town is because most people are being super passive. I'm active, wooper and LL are active, and homura has been active to a slightly lesser extent.
The lack of content from ceejay, Titus, and crush is killing the game because it means there's not any fresh insight coming through, and it's also meaning that in the case that most of this is TvT then scum are able to simply blend into the background with inactive town players.
This game should also serve as a warning to the risk of allowing ego players (I should be included in this to an extent) to be allowed to have too much control on the gamestate. If LL is scum, then he's being allowed to have a disproportionate influence on where mislynches are directed. If town, then he's being allowed to have a disproportionate impact on where mislynches are directed. I still mostly think he's scum but it's very hard to check this when people aren't willing to talk to me about what they're seeing in his content that's town and break it down for me.
In general, trying to work off the backs of those who have good read accuracy is better than following the (proven to be bad) reads of someone who you think is town, or the reads of everyone averaged together. So far LL has scumread and pushed only town (phoe, Karnage, me) and therefore even if you think he is town, you should stop trusting his reads as time goes on. Obviously, it's harder to know who to trust as time goes on without a scumflip because you can't be sure who's reads have been accurate up to this point.
Final points: be aware that reads that are too accurate from too little can be scum!indicative for a person and show they're bussing rather than truly solving, and finally if you're in lylo be aware that scum generally have a plan and aren't just chancing it. that means they've brought someone along who they think they can mislynch, and someone along who they think is willing to vote that mislynch. if you find yourself there, try to think about whether you've been set for the mislynch OR more crucially, if there's a person who looks like obvscum to you who you've wanted to lynch for days, if you're the person who's been brought to cast the game losing vote on the mislynch.
Also, if Menalque flips town, DO NOT VOTE until you are absolutely sure of who you want to lynch. At 5 players it will take 3 votes to lynch. If you vote town, even if it's only a temporary vote to apply pressure, the mafia can quickly throw both of their votes on and flash lynch the townie. The votes should go down after every attempt to solve have taken place.
In post 1109, Menalque wrote:The lack of content from ceejay, Titus, and crush is killing the game because it means there's not any fresh insight coming through, and it's also meaning that in the case that most of this is TvT then scum are able to simply blend into the background with inactive town players.
If you think there's a lack of content from me, you're making a huge mistake.
I can't go into detail right now, but with the solutions that are presented and are realistic in my eyes are LL + Wooper or Menal + Titus. I'm not looking at Titus + Wooper, that just doesn't make any sense and I don't understand why you would ever opt that. I've been trying to get people to talk about 'obvious town' TSE but no one is actually responding to that, so be it, guess CJ is out of the picture today. Homura has been very 0 for me during D1 but yesterday this slots questioning felt pretty towny. Anyway I don't think Wooper is ever the lynch here, CJ is left alone. Honestly rn I'm just thinking about LL + Wooper and Menal + Titus, and since this 1v1 has developed it has become almost inevitable that we lynch either one of them. If we don't do it, the same thing will continue D3 if we don't hit red and that wouldn't get us any further. The reason I'm voting Menal over LL is because I think didn't like both of your predecessors, I don't think your solutions are likely and I've generally liked LL since D1.
I might go into more detail later as to why I like LL over Menal, but unless LL is willing to reconsider Menal D3 I just think this is the best option.
I'm considering elaborating on why CJN is town. Titus and Wooper should both know why, and they are my first guesses at mafia if Mena flips town, meaning the only way it benefits mafia to out what we know is if both mafia are among players nobody is looking at, in which case we've probably lost anyway.
On 776, Melanque's sub in convinced me he was town. I've scumread Cheeky since the beginning. Wooper panicked with two votes on him and wanted to know if I was mislynchable, so he softed a PR. When I called him on it, but refused to claim, he folded. Wooper isn't likely town here.
Also, your logical premise is backwards. If I am town, CJN has a high likelihood of being town. CJN being town says shit about my alignment.
We both say CJN being town says nothing about your alignment. The only difference between our analysis is that I take CJN being town for granted, even if you are scum, absent a very particular event happening. The only way you being scum has an impact on CJN's alignment is if Crush makes it impossible for CJN to be town.
The safer play is for any surviving tprs to claim here but I don't think that's the better play - wld prefer to enter f5 first regardless of how today finishes
Tbh I don't think? if the surviving tpr exists, they should claim yet
