Newbie 1988 | Octopus | Over

[Plotinus]

Official Vote Count 3.03

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Lynching

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to lynch.

LuckyLuciano

(1): Crush

Not Voting

(4): Homura, LuckyLuciano, Menalque, ceejayvinoya

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-03-31 14:00:00).

Mod notes:

Menalque has requested replacement. Searching...[/area]

[Crush]

@LL, if you're town you should always be working things out right? I was wrong D2 as well, but I still want to win this game.

@CJV, who do you think is more likely to be mafia out of Menal and Homura?

[ceejayvinoya]

Homura

[Plotinus]

happyorange replaces Menalque! Please welcome them!

[ceejayvinoya]

Welcome happyorange

[Crush]

Homura

Is hammering your partner in this gamestate the more valuable play over guaranteeing lylo?

Welcome HappyOrange!

[Crush]

Also @LL, @Homura, @CJ, @HappyOrange , reminder that there's only approximately 1 day left. If you have doubts about me don't hesitate to AMA.

[Homura]

@LL, if you're town you should always be working things out right? I was wrong D2 as well, but I still want to win this game.

@CJV, who do you think is more likely to be mafia out of Menal and Homura?

What was your motivation behind asking this? Menalque is pretty much never scum here after the flip.

Are you saying you think Menalque could be scum?

[Homura]

I do want to apologize for my lack of activity in this game, FTR. My WIM only gets less the more I go without posting, but I don’t feel like I know which direction to go.

[Homura]

Obviously Crush before me, because I know I'm town. If he's town we probably lose because I don't imagine a scenario where I'm not lynched next DP.

Put it this way: if you don’t restrict the lynchpool to just Crush and yourself, what order would you lynch in?

[happyorange]

I don't think I'm going to have time to read through the whole game before the end of the day, but people should be discussing the way CheekyTeeky forgot LL had been given Lunar's role card and was treating them as separate player slots. If you think LL is a wolf here then you have to think that CheekyTeeky was faking that interaction in order to try to make them seem unaligned. I wouldn't bet the game on that type of read and it would depend on how bad CheekyTeeky's thread position was when she made the posts, slash whether or not CheekyTeeky is the type of wolf to believe fatalistically that they will be caught sooner or later, but it would definitely be on my mind, especially if I didn't have a confident read on the slot one way or the other. I've quoted the posts below, and I would encourage everyone to go through CheekyTeeky's ISO again on their own (and Wooper's) now that Wooper is a confirmed wolf, since it doesn't look like anyone is actually doing that.

Wow nice entrance, I'm sold. Both on LL being town and TSE having no WIM because he's scum here.

VOTE: TSE

LL is this your first game of mafia?

So I've voted both Titus and TSE and both have scumread me in return. Tap TR is strengthened by the timing of their vote on me although I do not understand their logic.

I'm currently at:

Tap, LL, Phoenix
Homura, Lunar, QQ
Titus, TSE

If this is true, why not bring it up before I entered the game?

I suspected TSE prior to your entry but when you pointed out his bizzare rolefishing with Lunar that strengthened them. TSE/Lunar unlikely SvS imo.

Oh wait LL replaced Lunar hmm.

[Homura]

Heads up to players and mod: I’ll be V/LA indefinitely as my classes start in the new online format.

I’m unsure how long it’ll take for me to adapt to the different style of schoolwork, so I may not have time for mafia for a while. Try my best to at least post something useful every two days.

P-edit: I forgot Menalque was replaced. Welcome!

[Homura]

Who’s your call for scum, happyorange?

[Homura]

I somewhat see what you’re trying to get at, but I’m not sure how you think the first three posts you’ve quoted clear Luciano. Do you think Cheeky wouldn’t locktown her partner?

[Crush]

@LL, if you're town you should always be working things out right? I was wrong D2 as well, but I still want to win this game.

@CJV, who do you think is more likely to be mafia out of Menal and Homura?

What was your motivation behind asking this? Menalque is pretty much never scum here after the flip.

Are you saying you think Menalque could be scum?

Mainly to keep the game going, since CJ was the only player posting. Personally I think the chances of Menal being mafia are almost equal to 0, but it doesn't hurt to know other player's perspectives. I'm definitely more interested in the follow-up question tho.

[Homura]

That’s a fair question.

I have my own thoughts on this, but I’ll elaborate after ceejay answers.

[Homura]

Do you agree that Titus most likely tracked ceejay N1?

[Crush]

Do you agree that Titus most likely tracked ceejay N1?

yes, otherwise the sudden TR wouldn't make sense. It also explains why no one explained their TR on ceejay D2.

[Homura]

Works for me.

happyorange, I’ll hear your input, but consider my intent on Luciano.

[Homura]

Anything you want to ask me while we’re both here, Crush?

[Crush]

Anything you want to ask me while we’re both here, Crush?

Not really, right now. Good luck with your classes!

I'll be working on my own classes for a few hours, I'll check in later tonight and before deadline!

[Homura]

Sounds good. Well wishes to you too.

[happyorange]

Who’s your call for scum, happyorange?

I'm back at page 10, so I'm afraid I can't be of much help in that department just yet. I have to go in a moment, didn't quite have time to read all of Wooper's posts. I left a note for myself to take a deeper look into Wooper's treatment of TSE for spew. There was one post where Wooper went into a lot of detail in a pretty rambling manner about how TSE was town and I came out of it with the impression that Wooper is the type of wolf who sometimes can't help but give elaborate mindset town reads they know to be true.

I somewhat see what you’re trying to get at, but I’m not sure how you think the first three posts you’ve quoted clear Luciano. Do you think Cheeky wouldn’t locktown her partner?

I think you've misunderstood. Cheeky forgot, or pretended to forget, that Luciano and Lunar shared the same role card. I noticed this while I was reading Cheeky's posts and think it's worth considering whether or not Cheeky planted that antialign, because if she didn't plant it then Luciano is a villager. I don't think there's any real likelihood of Cheeky forgetting their own partner's replacement. It's not the kind of thing that I would use to flip an entire read, but if I were choosing between two players I had no confident read on and one of them had that antialign in their favor then I would lynch the other most of the time. I can't comment on how it affects my read on Luciano until I have a read on Luciano, but I think it's worth thinking about for those of you who do.

[LuckyLuciano]

@CJV, who do you think is more likely to be mafia out of Menal and Homura?

I really dislike this post. Crush's vote is on me. There's only 1 mafia left. Homura and CJV have already stated that they are probably going to vote me today. It feels like Crush is putting the cart before the horse and looking forward to how he can best setup the gamestate for LYLO.

[LuckyLuciano]

What happens first, the mafia night kill, or Phoenix's jailkeep? In other words, could Phoenix have jailed CJN night 1, preventing him from using his role to visit someone, and thus causing Titus to see that he visited nobody and think he is confirmed town?

This springs to mind because TSE unvoted Cheeky at L-1, whereas Crush kept his vote on Cheeky at that point, and broke a 3-way tie to make Cheeky the leading wagon upon joining in.