Newbie 1988 | Octopus | Over

[LuckyLuciano]

250 makes a Wooper + CJV team look really odd, as they both are making each other the leading wagons.

[LuckyLuciano]

Accidentally made Wooper green in 283. Of note, in 303 Titus voted the Wooper slot, making it L-1 and in 320 the CJV slot unvoted the the Wooper slot. I read this as town early when I was townreading Wooper, but now that Wooper is red it isn't a reason to townread CJV now. However, it is worth pointing out that I made the CJV slot aware of something they had missed giving them reason to unvote, so it's not a reason to scumread the slot either.

[Plotinus]

Official Vote Count 3.04

---

Lynching

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to lynch.

LuckyLuciano

(1): Crush

Not Voting

(4): Homura, LuckyLuciano, happyorange, ceejayvinoya

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-04-01 15:00:00).

Mod notes:

Homura is V/LA[/area]

[happyorange]

LL, I don't understand what you're getting at with these thoughts about CJV. If you genuinely don't think they are village, you should talk about that, but vaguely suggesting ways in which someone who you think is village could be a werewolf is a pretty confusing approach to solving the game imo. You've also mentioned a couple of times today the possibility of a mislynch, but as far as I can tell you're the consensus lynch right now and you're not actually pushing for anyone else's lynch, nor is anyone else. So, when you mention that people might mislynch, are you referring to yourself, or just the abstract idea of that happening? And how should I differentiate between your comment about Crush gaming for lylo in 1523 and your recent posts about CJV?

[happyorange]

I don't think I'm going to have time to read through the whole game before the end of the day, but people should be discussing the way CheekyTeeky forgot LL had been given Lunar's role card and was treating them as separate player slots.

Well spotted

How has this affected your read on LL, if you think that's a good observation? You may have talked about it already in a part of the game that I haven't read, but what's the substance of your read on LL?

[LuckyLuciano]

I think that CJV is town. I don't think they are locktown. My intent is on Crush today. I know I'm town. I think your slot is town based on Mena's push against Wooper. I think Homura is town for the hammer. We know the surviving mafia is the roleblocker and I think + Titus is a strong reason to believe CJV is town. I'm not pushing hard because we're 5 weeks into a game that's on DP3 and has had as many replacements as its had players. In that time I've pretty much only pushed town and defended scum. I'm not exactly in the mood to lead tbh. I think it's worth noting that the roleblocker could have waived night 1, and that there's a possibility of Wooper + CJV, in case Crush is a mislynch and we have to go to LYLO. I think that's possibility is solidly on the unlikely spectrum of possibilities.

[happyorange]

Yeah, I don't think it's completely out of the question at all and I don't fault you for wondering about it. I am definitely getting the sense that it has been a pretty rough game for everyone.

[happyorange]

Ohhh, Phoenix claimed day 1. That really simplifies things. Really wish I had known this sooner.

[ceejayvinoya]

I don't think I'm going to have time to read through the whole game before the end of the day, but people should be discussing the way CheekyTeeky forgot LL had been given Lunar's role card and was treating them as separate player slots.

Well spotted

How has this affected your read on LL, if you think that's a good observation? You may have talked about it already in a part of the game that I haven't read, but what's the substance of your read on LL?

It's actually forcing me to look at LL as townier since I have trouble believing it's possible for cheeky to mess up that on their reads.

[ceejayvinoya]

Ohhh, Phoenix claimed day 1. That really simplifies things. Really wish I had known this sooner.

I thought you already knew lols

Sorry about that.

[LuckyLuciano]

VOTE: Crush. I don't really see any reason to lynch anyone else today. The most notable parts of his iso sticking out to me are 276 + 277, and 861 + his posts today that feel like he's planning future mislynches ahead of time.

[ceejayvinoya]

Ok I've somewhat caught up, haven't really got the chance to really analyze everything but I guess that will have to wait until D2 or later. So far I actually quite dislike a lot of slots, of which I dislike Cheeky the most. Cheeky, would you say that you are someone that's easy to convince/too agreeable? Because you have voted for a lot of players D1 and to me it feels like you're trying to catch every wave that might hit the shore. Do you really think LL's post was that good to immediately let go of your Titus vote?

The Homura slot had a lot of posts I can't really place in the early pages, a lot of fluff and I also really hate meta arguments especially in a noobie game. Tapio slot had some questionable posts and seems also easily swayed. Karnage is still kinda whatever to me. I do like the #201 but I dislike the fixedness in his reads, still I've seen some town players do this in the games I've played years ago and since I still do like the effort and analysis LL is a town lean for now. To me the Phoenix slot isn't that noteworthy right now, which make the early TR other players have given him (before like pag 10'ish, I will have to look up later who exactly these players were) strange to me. The only minor thing I dislike in this slot is the seriousness he used in approaching my slot. TSE feels meh to me, I didn't particularly like the 'mafioso' thing and I think the constant formation of teams on D1 isn't that relevant, feels like a way to add to your postcount without really contributing. I like Titus the most aside from LL, mainly because of the early interactions regarding the 'gut vote' and the good cop bad cop thing.

So for me now: town leaning LL, Titus. Mafia leaning: Tapio, maybe Homura, maybe TSE but mainly VOTE: Cheeky

Well at least I can understand Crush. You're probably town as newbies tend to scumread me.

Also don't like this, saw someone post something along the lines of 'why would we lynch you (SE) instead of going for noobies, didnt like that either. Its a really easy way to completely kill what someone is saying, it might be true in a sense but it isnt cooperative at all.

Cheeky, would you say that you are someone that's easy to convince/too agreeable? Because you have voted for a lot of players D1 and to me it feels like you're trying to catch every wave that might hit the shore. Do you really think LL's post was that good to immediately let go of your Titus vote?

The voting thing is my way of sorting, I'm predominantly a reaction test player. Im not really a fan of you accusing me of trying to lynch everyone when it's pretty obvious that's not what im doing. I have been accused of both tunnelling and voting too much which is lol.

I feel like you're asking leading questions that are intended to be rhetorical.

Yes the first one is definitely a leading question, and probably not a very informative one. As for the partial answered 2nd question, could you give your thoughts on the reactions your votes have given you? Who do you want to lynch?

What does everyone feel about these posts in regards to crush/cheeky?

[happyorange]

Your question is pretty broad, could you rephrase it so I have a better idea of what you're looking at? For example, "I think X and Y about this aspect of these two posts, I'm not sure about this other aspect, what opinions do other people have on that?"

[ceejayvinoya]

Do you think crush's scumread of cheeky there is genuine or not

[happyorange]

I'm pretty eh on it. What part of it doesn't feel genuine to you? I'm assuming you think it isn't genuine or are ambivalent about it given that you're asking the question.

[happyorange]

I feel the same about Homura. Prior to replacing in myself, my strongest town reads as an observer were QQ (Crush) and Cheeky (You). The QQ slot is probably my strongest townread in the game. That leaves Titus, Non, and CJN (TSE). We have one mislynch left. Assuming we lynch one of the three aforementioned players this DP, which flip do you believe reveals the most information?

Can you explain what you meant when you said we have one mislynch left? Did you think the game was in lylo?

[LuckyLuciano]

I feel the same about Homura. Prior to replacing in myself, my strongest town reads as an observer were QQ (Crush) and Cheeky (You). The QQ slot is probably my strongest townread in the game. That leaves Titus, Non, and CJN (TSE). We have one mislynch left. Assuming we lynch one of the three aforementioned players this DP, which flip do you believe reveals the most information?

Can you explain what you meant when you said we have one mislynch left? Did you think the game was in lylo?

LYLO-X, where X represents the number of mislynches until LYLO. We were at 5v2. If we mislynch and mafia night kills, that leaves us at 3v2. We had 1 available mislynch. I'm not sure what was confusing about what I said?

Also, to help you under time constraints, I townread QQ hard because I believed he softed a power role early on. That read is going to carry on until the end of yesterday without me really looking at Crush much more because I'm under the assumption up until that point that he's the remaining TPR.

[Crush]

VOTE: Crush. I don't really see any reason to lynch anyone else today. The most notable parts of his iso sticking out to me are 276 + 277, and 861 + his posts today that feel like he's planning future mislynches ahead of time.

Actually the more I think about it the less I understand why I need to be the lynch, unless you really think I would just kill off my partner D1. It was also good rereading those posts of mine, I still like the reasoning behind it; except that I TR'ed you so much that I thought

Wooper

would automatically lead to

CJV

.

[LuckyLuciano]

As for the Crush/Teeky interaction, I can see it going both ways. What's been taking up more of my headspace is whether or not Crush let's Teeky get to L-1. 315, and 316 are making me wonder whether a Crush + Teeky team is actually viable. It's possible that Crush wanted to scumread his partner early to distance, but coming into the game and putting a heavily suspected teammate at L-2 feels like an overly bold strategy. His entrance still feels like a softball SR, and Cheeky just ignored it. How likely is it that Crush expected Cheeky to give him an easy out to drop his scumread on her and she just didn't do it before the wagon picked up steam and he was committed to it?

If not Crush, though, then who? My gut tells me to look at Homura next. CJV has a point that getting to LYLO by hammering Menal would be pointless as Wooper was 100% the lynch if Menal flipped green, and Homura would be largely suspected at 2v1 LYLO for hammering Menal. Under the assumption that Wooper always dies yesterday or today, and that if Wooper dies yesterday, Homura never dies today, I would think hammering Wooper appears to be the better play. Remember when Titus gut pinged from Tapio (Orange) to Phi (Homura) in RVS and Cheeky started to hard tunnel Titus? 23.

Looking more at Cheeky's ISO, she happily tagged along with my push on TSE when I replaced in, making me more town on CJV. While Crush's entrance feels softball towards Cheeky, it also feels like his analysis of Cheeky catching every wave is just true. I feel it's a lot harder as scum to find a true reason to attack your scummates in order to distance than it is for town to find true reasons to push scum. UNVOTE: Crush. We're low on time, however. We gotta work fast.

[LuckyLuciano]

VOTE: Crush. I don't really see any reason to lynch anyone else today. The most notable parts of his iso sticking out to me are 276 + 277, and 861 + his posts today that feel like he's planning future mislynches ahead of time.

Actually the more I think about it the less I understand why I need to be the lynch

, unless you really think I would just kill off my partner D1. It was also good rereading those posts of mine, I still like the reasoning behind it; except that I TR'ed you so much that I thought

Wooper

would automatically lead to

CJV

.

Mood.

[LuckyLuciano]

Crush, how do you feel about Homura?

[LuckyLuciano]

276
290-293.

[LuckyLuciano]

Homura was also the one the helped me the most in pushing the Phoenix counterwagon which helped take pressure off Cheeky.

[Crush]

Crush, how do you feel about Homura?

Uhh I don't have specifics, basically didn't really read her at first, then I started liking her more D2. I don't know if it would've been a useless LYLO from Homura's perspective but I can see the value in her hammering her partner. But that would also mean that no mafia voted on Karnage D1, which is the reason why I didn't associate Wooper with Homura D2.

[Crush]

276
290-293.