Newbie 1988 | Octopus | Over

[Crush]

276
290-293.

tbh I don't dislike those posts in general from Homura, but it does remind me a little of the good-cop bad-cop reasoning D1.

[LuckyLuciano]

menalque i'm gonna need you to level w me pretty quick if you're scum dude

Wooper, I'm going to need you to level w/ me pretty quick if you're town, dude.

This made me laugh.

[LuckyLuciano]

I don't think an all-town lynching of Karnage is that unlikely considering how it was a flash-lynch with a hard deadline after Phoenix claimed TPR. It was always going to be Karnage under those circumstances if Phoenix is TPR, the VCA of his final wagon really just boils down to, who was online?

[Crush]

I don't think an all-town lynching of Karnage is that unlikely considering how it was a flash-lynch with a hard deadline after Phoenix claimed TPR. It was always going to be Karnage under those circumstances if Phoenix is TPR, the VCA of his final wagon really just boils down to, who was online?

That's a fair point.

[LuckyLuciano]

I do find it odd that Homura declared intent to hammer with 6 hours left (495) and just gave time for someone else to hammer, and then immediately next day raises suspicion of the player who hammers with about 2 hours left in the day 557 575.

Also, Wooper declared intent to hammer as well and specifically placeholder voted Non (543) and, much like Homura, questioned him for the Hammer (575). I feel that it's strongly possible that Wooper instructed Homura not to be on the lynch if at all possible, planning on doing VCA in day 2 and using it to create a lynchpool that excludes both of them because, despite declaring intent, they didn't actually vote (583).

[Crush]

Btw I love people calling me a newb for correctly mafia reading them D1, thanks @Cheeky if you're reading this.

[LuckyLuciano]

VOTE: Homura. There's too much going for Crush. The more I reread Cheeky + Homura, the less I like Homura.

[happyorange]

Kinda leaning towards voting LL here. I've been going through his posts on their own and finding it pretty hard to ignore the amount of wolfsiding he's done all game.

[Crush]

Kinda leaning towards voting LL here. I've been going through his posts on their own and finding it pretty hard to ignore the amount of wolfsiding he's done all game.

What do you think of Homura?

[LuckyLuciano]

Yup, I've been wrong at pretty much every turn. I think I'm right about Homura, but he's also the only person I haven't scumread until now. Before voting me, try to look at how Cheeky / Wooper interacted with me and used my misreads to push their Agenda. Homura pretty heavily used me to justify leaning against Menal for much of day 2 before logging off and coming back to a tied wagon.

[happyorange]

I do find it odd that Homura declared intent to hammer with 6 hours left (495) and just gave time for someone else to hammer, and then immediately next day raises suspicion of the player who hammers with about 2 hours left in the day 557 575.

Also, Wooper declared intent to hammer as well and specifically placeholder voted Non (543) and, much like Homura, questioned him for the Hammer (575). I feel that it's strongly possible that Wooper instructed Homura not to be on the lynch if at all possible, planning on doing VCA in day 2 and using it to create a lynchpool that excludes both of them because, despite declaring intent, they didn't actually vote (583).

How does that outweight Hamura hammering wooper when wagons were tied at 3-3? I find it pretty difficult to believe that she would bus her partner when she would have to think that doing so would more or less clear the other villagers on the lynch, and given that she doesn't seem like the type of player to believe in herself to carry a game on her own, not to mention mena was the main source of the push on wooper and with mena dead there would always be a chance that wooper could have convinced village not to lynch him, or that's the sense I get of things without having read that part of the game in full.

[happyorange]

Kinda leaning towards voting LL here. I've been going through his posts on their own and finding it pretty hard to ignore the amount of wolfsiding he's done all game.

What do you think of Homura?

Just wrote a few short words about it. I'll be doing a deep read through of her once I've caught up, but at the very least I don't see myself voting someone the day after they hammered a wolf with tied wagons.

[LuckyLuciano]

I do find it odd that Homura declared intent to hammer with 6 hours left (495) and just gave time for someone else to hammer, and then immediately next day raises suspicion of the player who hammers with about 2 hours left in the day 557 575.

Also, Wooper declared intent to hammer as well and specifically placeholder voted Non (543) and, much like Homura, questioned him for the Hammer (575). I feel that it's strongly possible that Wooper instructed Homura not to be on the lynch if at all possible, planning on doing VCA in day 2 and using it to create a lynchpool that excludes both of them because, despite declaring intent, they didn't actually vote (583).

How does that outweight Hamura hammering wooper when wagons were tied at 3-3? I find it pretty difficult to believe that she would bus her partner when she would have to think that doing so would more or less clear the other villagers on the lynch, and given that she doesn't seem like the type of player to believe in herself to carry a game on her own, not to mention mena was the main source of the push on wooper and with mena dead there would always be a chance that wooper could have convinced village not to lynch him, or that's the sense I get of things without having read that part of the game in full.

I think you'll change your perspective once you do read that part in full. I myself was getting close to hammering Wooper by the end of the day if it wasn't for external events making me question whether I was starting to townread Mena because of his actions in this game, or because of that external event. There's a reason why I'm much more willing to cooperate with you than I was Mena despite it being the same slot, I'm just not allowed to disclose the reasons.

[happyorange]

Eh, don't think I will.

[happyorange]

Crush, talk to me about your LL read? It looks like you had them as strongly town early day 1, then ran into some confusion over your notes where you didn't realize LL had replaced LunarRest. You don't seem to have really taken that realization into account with your LL read? No problem if this was too long ago for you to really remember. Today you voted LL, but said you don't think you can case them because you have been reading them as village for most of the game. I'm confused about what you mean here. If you don't have reasoning for LL being a wolf then what prompted your vote?

[Plotinus]

Official Vote Count 3.05

---

Lynching

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to lynch.

Homura

(1): LuckyLuciano

LuckyLuciano

(1): Crush

Not Voting

(3): Homura, happyorange, ceejayvinoya

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-04-01 15:00:00).

Mod notes:

Homura is V/LA[/area]

[ceejayvinoya]

As for the Crush/Teeky interaction, I can see it going both ways. What's been taking up more of my headspace is whether or not Crush let's Teeky get to L-1. 315, and 316 are making me wonder whether a Crush + Teeky team is actually viable. It's possible that Crush wanted to scumread his partner early to distance, but coming into the game and putting a heavily suspected teammate at L-2 feels like an overly bold strategy. His entrance still feels like a softball SR, and Cheeky just ignored it. How likely is it that Crush expected Cheeky to give him an easy out to drop his scumread on her and she just didn't do it before the wagon picked up steam and he was committed to it?

If not Crush, though, then who? My gut tells me to look at Homura next. CJV has a point that getting to LYLO by hammering Menal would be pointless as Wooper was 100% the lynch if Menal flipped green, and Homura would be largely suspected at 2v1 LYLO for hammering Menal. Under the assumption that Wooper always dies yesterday or today, and that if Wooper dies yesterday, Homura never dies today, I would think hammering Wooper appears to be the better play. Remember when Titus gut pinged from Tapio (Orange) to Phi (Homura) in RVS and Cheeky started to hard tunnel Titus? 23.

Looking more at Cheeky's ISO, she happily tagged along with my push on TSE when I replaced in, making me more town on CJV. While Crush's entrance feels softball towards Cheeky, it also feels like his analysis of Cheeky catching every wave is just true. I feel it's a lot harder as scum to find a true reason to attack your scummates in order to distance than it is for town to find true reasons to push scum. UNVOTE: Crush. We're low on time, however. We gotta work fast.

You're on fire today lols

I was wondering if anyone else is seeing how unlikely the pairing was

[happyorange]

I probably won't have time today to hear the response to that question because I have to go in a minute and won't be back before the lynch happens. I am caught up, I haven't had time to do deep rereads of different players but I have the general shape of reads on most people.

Homura/CJN:

I would never vote Homura or CJN today and they'd be at the bottom of my pile tomorrow but are still people I want to go through in deeper detail to feel more confident on. They both look more unaligned with Wopper than not, don't have any super pressing concerns with either player and CNJ has the night 1 track going for him as well.

Crush:

Crush being off Wopper because of a townread on LL and being on Mena because of their predecessors rather mena himself isn't a great look and they never really took a stance on Wopper independently despite having an early wolf read on CheekyTeeky. Think they make sense as a partner, wouldn't rule out the possibility that they're town but I'd probably have to do a big chunk of work to get there.

LL:

LL has been wolfsiding pretty hard all game, which isn't necessarily a reason to think they're a wolf but when you're at a point in the game where you have two out of four players who look pretty unaligned with the flipped wolf it becomes difficult to justify keeping around someone who pursued the wolf win condition as intently as LL did. The way that he's been treating people has also been pretty slimy imo, getting into exchanges that go on for far longer than they should with no apparent intent behind them except to essentially ruffle their feathers. Think his shift onto Homura on this page is a little questionable, I struggle to see how he's getting to the read he is there and why it's only occurring to him now, comes across as painting Homura to suit his read which is pretty similar to his treatment of a lot of players this game imo, and if he's mafia then he needs either Homura into Crush or Crush into Homura if he's going to win.

Think lynching through LL>Crush probably wins the game. I'd like to be more confident than I am and would prefer much more time to allow myself to process everything but this is about as much as I'm able to do given the time constraints.

Vote: LuckyLuciano

L-1

[ceejayvinoya]

The more I read from crush and LL, the less I think that they're sided with Wooper. Ugh

[ceejayvinoya]

Who's scum, @crush?

[LuckyLuciano]

@Orange, do you think it makes sense for Wooper and I to align so hard day 2 if our strategy is for me to push mislynches all game?

[ceejayvinoya]

VOTE: Homura

Want this more.

[LuckyLuciano]

@Orange, if I'm lynched today, promise to reevaluate Homura tomorrow. He most likely night kills CJV and puts himself in a 1v1 with Crush, who already seems to be trying to resort him but left his vote lingering carelessly on me.

[Crush]

Crush, talk to me about your LL read? It looks like you had them as strongly town early day 1, then ran into some confusion over your notes where you didn't realize LL had replaced LunarRest. You don't seem to have really taken that realization into account with your LL read? No problem if this was too long ago for you to really remember. Today you voted LL, but said you don't think you can case them because you have been reading them as village for most of the game. I'm confused about what you mean here. If you don't have reasoning for LL being a wolf then what prompted your vote?

The Lunar read wasn't THAT strong to sway my read on LL. In my opinion LL made a lot of good points during the entire game, he might just be good at fishing for things but to me he has been really convincing. And now he has kinda talked me out of reading Homura town, and I think again with pretty good reasoning. The reason I voted for LL even though I've read him town the entire game is because Menal was basically locked town and I felt like he was going to put us up to a 1v1 regardless. And honestly, he has been so wrong in his pushes this game that I might just have a terrible read on him.

[Crush]

Who's scum, @crush?

I honestly don't know, LL talked me out of straight town reading Homura but I don't see too strong of a connection between Homura and the Wooper slots either.