Doubles Mafia Day 2/ Day 2

[BBmolla]

Not_Mafia has done very little to improve my read on that slot btw

[RadiantCowbells]

i don't want to lynch in halloween while we're down a slot and while my christmas reads are too uncertain to get associative reads from

[northsidegal]

I was tl you before I knew that but that read is strengthened by knowing this.

~N

oh, nancy drew is in trojan horses? they might actually be scum, then.

[northsidegal]

there have been times when i have found myself in this position and i think the best solution is to just start freewriting, so that's what i'm going to do. the last time i remember doing so was in 8-ball (when i found myself in a situation much like the one i find myself in now), and i remember it working then.

this game is astoundingly unreadable. i find that true for both the literary sense and the mafia sense – i both find my eyes glazing over scrolling through some posts and i find myself reading them and not really coming away with anything. this is a pretty unfortunate situation both for me and for the game: i don't really have much to

say

, and that's pretty bad when i haven't really said anything at all the entire game (i would be scumreading me – it's really not an unreasonable conclusion). it's not really a solution to just not say anything for reasons that i'm certain go without saying, but also forcing myself to say something also isn't much of a solution (that's why i'm doing this, actually – feels like the best of a bad situation). it's bad for the game because it feels like we're just spinning our wheels and not really going anywhere—no rise and fall of wagons, no push and push back, almost just conversation. i've certainly contributed to that problem but i'm not really blaming anyone in the first place – the only interesting reads i've even been able to make so far have been alt hunting. (by the way lie ren – it wasn't

super

obvious you were gamma, it was a combination of some ellibereth-esque word searches and being a fan of RWBY that narrowed it down to a few people, and your seeming familiarity with mastina eliminated all non-you candidates. your posting times between accounts confirmed it)

i am remiss to continue talking about myself and about how unreadable the game is and thus perhaps contribute to the problem, so maybe i'll just freewrite about some reads. i don't think i've said it yet but i'd like to compliment shuichi for his lovely play so far. when he first posted i thought to myself that i was quite glad that someone was responding to a lot of nonsense that had gone on very reasonably. actually, though that i was glad that i had messaged jingle when he prodded those two empty slots that shuichi is a ceph alt and that if he hadn't messaged him on his main that maybe he should do that, but that's not really game-relevant. probably i am pretty cognitively biased to townread people whom i see as responding to stuff i disagree with reasonably so i'm not sure how relaible my townread is on him, but acknowledging that bias doesn't really take away from my read that much, personally.

turkey has basically just instantly become a global townread – i think i'm fine with that. he seems pretty at-ease which contrasts with what i know of his personality as scum, so it makes sense. i think that bitmap's thought process early in the game with regards to what he was saying about paragons and such was pretty consistent with stuff he said in our team discord during team mafia, so that's why i was townreading that slot initially (i think i may have already brought this read up), although a weird read later on jjh made me pause.

that skygazer/nancy drew/krazy/whoever else is in there hydra is a little weird to read. i'm pretty sure RC already scumreads them so i might be primed to scumread them, now that i think about it. that being said, i say that it's weird because individually i would almost certainly be scumreading the contributions from {skygazer, nancy drew}, but the fact that they're in a multi-person hydra changes things. there's a sort of diffusion of responsibility and posting such that tells might not apply the same way. all that being said, i probably would've left them at null before i knew that nancy drew was there (although the conversation i'm reading between them and shuichi does them no favors, now that i think about it—i might've scumread them anyways), but knowing that nancy drew is there i might say that they're more likely to be scum. i say that because i think that factors that might influence some people to post differently while in a hydra probably don't apply (or apply less) to nancy drew – that is, i would expect her to post the same as always. of course, i could be wrong in the first place about ND being in that hydra, but i don't think that i am.

this is probably my least readable post on mafiascum ever.

bbmolla i'm gut townreading? probably already talked about this but maybe not, this is pretty much entirely like a tonal/personality meta thing. that is, i think that i might be reading him in almost the exact same way i'm reading gobble – he seems to be less "refined", more casual, and that matches more his towngame as i know it than his scumgame. who else? baezu and sircakez i have basically no read whatsoever on. i can't remember a single one of their posts, which is probably not true for any other player in the game. it'll be interesting to see if that has any correlation with their alignment. i'm trying to do this without looking at the playerlist for reference of who's in the game, mostly just because it seems like a "free writing" thing to do. oh, there's mastina and jjh. i have no comment on mastina, really. jjh i still think probably leans scum (not sure if i mentioned that before). my record on reading jjh is pretty pristine if i might say so myself. not that i'm using that as a way to say that you should sheep me right now – the thought moreso came up as in it's one that i expect i'll have solidified as one or the other given time. (of course, we're already quite a lot of time into the game, but whatever. actually, i had forgotten until reading it just a bit ago that this game doesn't have deadlines, which is pretty nice at least for me and how much time i've had to play.)

honestly, that's probably enough for now. i think i'll finish catching up.

[northsidegal]

Letting replaced scum get away is one of the top 5 cardinal sins towns commit to throw games they should win, probably.

personally, i think i've seen far more times where "let's lynch him and not bother with the replacement" lands on town and not scum. of course, even if scum replaced out like that at a rate higher than random we would still exepct to see more lynches like that land on town, but still. unless you meant slots where the replacement scum plays a lot better and saves the slot.

[northsidegal]

If we catch a scum, we may want to consider focusing on the other game for a bit as the probability of lynching scum in the other game is then higher.

Yes, but lynch the second scum and both towns win.

Purely mathematically Shuichi makes a good point, plus I feel like the power of associations would probably make it easier to find scum in the other game.

why is that?

[northsidegal]

I don't feel prepared to draw that conclusion with the available evidence.

top ten sentences to immediately pocket nsg

[northsidegal]

rc while i very much appreciate your using our lack of a deadline to wait and solidify your read on me, it seems like a different approach than normal. i don't think i've ever been pressured to do something less from you than now. what's the impetus for the change?

[RadiantCowbells]

I am assuming that given the world's pretty topsy turvy right now if you're not here you're not here for a reason

[RadiantCowbells]

Also I just don't care as much about this game as you're used to me caring about games.

[RadiantCowbells]

Would appreciate thoughts on Cakez specifically

[RadiantCowbells]

btw i know how much you and the lobby at large i going to hate this answer

[Trojan Horses]

@Gobbles: I think the game will declare us scum if we revealed one of our heads although, of course, incorrectly so.
Also, my scumhunting will probably turn much more aggressive and visible as the game progresses, you've seen it before

To NSG: I was referring to Nancy in this post.
She's unable to get herself to post right now due to a few reasons.
If she was able to, I'd absolutely be making her post if we were scum.

[northsidegal]

btw i know how much you and the lobby at large i going to hate this answer

hate what, 1434? that wasn't really my reaction reading it. mostly, i just thought "that makes sense", or i guess that it's consistent with other things that i know.

[RadiantCowbells]

Btw ND39 was my "pretty confident alt guess"

[Trojan Horses]

(although the conversation i'm reading between them and shuichi does them no favors, now that i think about it—i might've scumread them anyways)

I'm very interested in this particular part - what in our current conversation would lead you to a scumread?

[northsidegal]

@Gobbles: I think the game will declare us scum if we revealed one of our heads although, of course, incorrectly so.
Also, my scumhunting will probably turn much more aggressive and visible as the game progresses, you've seen it before

To NSG: I was referring to Nancy in this post.
She's unable to get herself to post right now due to a few reasons.
If she was able to, I'd absolutely be making her post if we were scum.

if she's unable to post then that would presumably be true regardless of alignment.

so why mention that you'd be making her post as scum?

[Trojan Horses]

if she's unable to post then that would presumably be true regardless of alignment.

so why mention that you'd be making her post as scum?

I added the conditional "if she was able to", no?

[RadiantCowbells]

you never really gave shiuichi a chance to be town.

[Trojan Horses]

you never really gave shiuichi a chance to be town.

And what does that mean?

[northsidegal]

if she's unable to post then that would presumably be true regardless of alignment.

so why mention that you'd be making her post as scum?

I added the conditional "if she was able to", no?

right, but she's not able to. so what's the relevance? or, to put it another way, what relevant information am i supposed to take away from that? saying that she can't post – okay, that's new information. saying that if she could post (she can't) and if you guys were scum you would make her post – why bring it up?

[Trojan Horses]

I don't think I need to "offer a chance" for him to be town. I'll say that my expressed annoyance is fake and I was still trolling around.
I'm not making any real attempt at being townread myself apart from the partial solving that I'm, er,

naturally

doing (hehe) so I'll concede that as well.

right, but she's not able to. so what's the relevance? or, to put it another way, what relevant information am i supposed to take away from that? saying that she can't post – okay, that's new information. saying that if she could post (she can't) and if you guys were scum you would make her post – why bring it up?

Simple. There's a case to be made that I'm lying about her inability to post actively, and that I'm making up an excuse for her lurking; I'm pointing out that that's unlikely.

[northsidegal]

i see.

i hope i didn't come off as too anti-social "why are you talking to me, what is the relevance of this conversation". just wanted some insight into your mindset.

[Trojan Horses]

i see.

i hope i didn't come off as too anti-social "why are you talking to me, what is the relevance of this conversation". just wanted some insight into your mindset.

I don't care about all that, and that's completely cool by me.
BUT, I'm actually wondering how you missed that and instead readily believed my explanation - it almost feels like you know I'm town, NSG.

[northsidegal]

i believe that i tend to assume that people do not lie about real life circumstances. i was almost certainly psychologically primed to assume so from RC's comment on this very same page on a similar topic.