Guns & Roses IV [Game Over]

chkflip · Post Post #275 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:38 pm

That's part of the problem, though?

Intentionally trying to "townslip" isn't something town does.

In post 175, chkflip wrote:
In post 171, chkflip wrote:Pagetop.

DonCorleone · Post Post #276 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:40 pm

In post 272, chkflip wrote:It's been a while but yes I am familiar with Rampage.

I've never been, nor will I ever be, banned from mafia for toxicity. Not koombaya'ing with every player does not a toxic player make.

Okay, so my question stands: why bussing and not just ABR being ABR?

I apologise for saying toxicity, that was unfair. My concern remains the same — I believe it decreases the odds of town ultimately winning to have too much conflict and to not build sufficient cohesion on Day 1. If one looks at GnR III one reason why scum seemed to win there was because they encouraged conflict between two townslots on D1 that even after it faded was ultimately important for the town not being able to get onto scum as they were too focused on said conflict. That same conflict was then used in LYLO against the eventual mislynch target.

I haven’t gotten around to fully reading GnR II yet but that seems to be somewhat of an exceptional game due to the excess number of guns and very few roses. Here, I think GnR III is a more useful guide for what to avoid due to the similar rose-stacked set-up.

DonCorleone · Post Post #277 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:43 pm

Hmm, momo is posting a elsewhere on site but chose not to respond to his role PM in this game. Also, firebringer appears to be happy. I’m moving him out of my townreads and into my probable scum group.

farside22 · Post Post #278 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:44 pm

In post 252, chkflip wrote:Newb is not just newb. There are definitive differences between newb!town "I don't understand how mafia works" and newb!scum "het guys I'm new watch me make these GeNuInE mIsTaKeS" and I absolutely do not believe you don't understand the difference. We can agree to disagree on extracting what we believe happened there, I'm 100% okay with that, but newb is not just newb.

To answer your question, yes. I have 100% seen people fake the dumbest shit. Before you ask for links, no. I'm not dredging through three pages of game links to find the times I saw it happen to satisfy you.

Thats fair. I could be wrong. Day 1 rvs bw on scum are rare so im typically against them.

In post 255, votato wrote:Actually, chkflip is doing the non-RVS version of my vote on farside, so ill UNVOTE: farside and instead VOTE: chkflip. I'm probably wrong, because I automatically read twats as scum, but im getting a pretty big clue here

Spoiler:

I am predicting some big fights in your future.

In post 263, DonCorleone wrote:Tentatively, I’d say farside, Something_Smart, firebringer, ABR, and votato are all town. Least confident on ABR there, but I have no real experience with him first hand so I may be incorrectly reading him playing in a fairly relaxed manner as him being town. Which I know is the opposite of his reputation, but I think scum!ABR may feel more pressured to act in line with his high pressure reputation, thereby making his relaxation actually in favour of town him.

Farside, what do you see in paragon that’s townie? I have something gut pinging me town there but not enough for me to really call the slot as town.

Lilith I’m holding back on for now, not sure.

Chkflip is my top for scum among the posting slots, but I want to interact more there. They may not be a bad lynch even if town.

All the other slots haven’t produced enough content yet to be read.

In post 264, DonCorleone wrote:ABR, farside, S_S: what do you make of Lilith so far?

I like paragons points on abr. Its a soft town read, but ill take what i can early on. I think lilith is town. If she is this carefree and relaxed as scum I would give her a big high 5 and nom for best scum.
I am concerned fire hasnt obvious town yet

eyestott · Post Post #279 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:45 pm

Okay, DonSirloin is my strongest townread

chkflip · Post Post #280 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:01 pm

In post 276, DonCorleone wrote:
Okay, so my question stands: why bussing and not just ABR being ABR?

I'm not inherently against the idea, it's obviously a hip-drawn read at best, that's just where I'm at currently.

In post 277, DonCorleone wrote:Hmm, momo is posting a elsewhere on site but chose not to respond to his role PM in this game. Also, firebringer appears to be happy.

Don't be that guy.

In post 278, farside22 wrote:Thats fair. I could be wrong. Day 1 rvs bw on scum are rare so im typically against them.

I'm having difficulty understanding your progression on why you're against lynching votato when you've just gone from "newb is newb" to this. Would you mind elaborating?

farside22 · Post Post #281 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:26 pm

In post 280, chkflip wrote:
In post 276, DonCorleone wrote:
Okay, so my question stands: why bussing and not just ABR being ABR?
I'm not inherently against the idea, it's obviously a hip-drawn read at best, that's just where I'm at currently.

In post 277, DonCorleone wrote:Hmm, momo is posting a elsewhere on site but chose not to respond to his role PM in this game. Also, firebringer appears to be happy.
Don't be that guy.

In post 278, farside22 wrote:Thats fair. I could be wrong. Day 1 rvs bw on scum are rare so im typically against them.
I'm having difficulty understanding your progression on why you're against lynching votato when you've just gone from "newb is newb" to this. Would you mind elaborating?

I see your point, i just don't have the same read on it as you do.
Currently i read him as just very immature, which isn't an alignment thing.

Paragon · Post Post #282 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:47 pm

In post 279, eyestott wrote:Okay, DonSirloin is my strongest townread

How dare you

Paragon · Post Post #283 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:48 pm

Albert, why is votato obvscum?

Lilith, why do you townread Cakez?

eyestott · Post Post #284 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:49 pm

In post 282, Paragon wrote:
In post 279, eyestott wrote:Okay, DonSirloin is my strongest townread
How dare you

Don't worry Paragon, you can have my townread too

But you'll have to earn it

Paragon · Post Post #285 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:50 pm

What must I do to earn your legendary townread?

eyestott · Post Post #286 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:55 pm

Legendary :O
Hmmm... Don't do scummy stuff, do do solvy stuff?

I have a theory as to a way to achieve a solve, care to help me iron the theory out?

eyestott · Post Post #287 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:00 pm

The question is, during a mass claim, will the three scum all claim gun, all claim rose, or some mixture of the two?
statistically, (assuming that all townies claim truthfully) there are four scenarios

1: 8 town rose claims, 6 town gun claims
2: 9 town rose claims, 5 town gun claims
3: 10 town rose claims, 4 town gun claims
4: 11 town rose claims, 3 town gun claims

in scenario 1, we confirm 8 players as town, and in scenario 4, we confirm 3 players as town.
2 and 3 arent quite as useful scenarios, but they do allow us to make interaction based scumhunting much more accurate, especially within the n+1 claim groups (rose in 2, gun in 3)

The main downside to this is that it gives the mafia full setup knowledge (other than which night people's activities activate).

eyestott · Post Post #288 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:04 pm

So my question to you is:
When does the benefits of a mass claim outweigh the drawbacks? And given that a single fakeclaim from town would ruin said plan, how likely do you think a town fakeclaim would be?

Maybe once one scum is dead, and there's only 3 scenarios, all of which result in the 2 scum either being in the same group (clearing the other group) or different groups (narrowing down possible pairs from factorial based to multiplication based)

Paragon · Post Post #289 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:32 pm

I'm not actually sure whether scum want to shoot for roses or guns. Shooting for a rose poses a decent chance of the shot being wasted, while shooting for guns are guaranteed kill-shots. I think it depends whether the rose elimination strat is viable, and I don't think it really is based on the number we have. Gun claims are probably just free shots for scum.

If we mass claim, scenario 1 or 4 never happens for obvious reasons. Scum are gonna claim so they don't confirm one of the pools. 2 would probably claim rose, and the other gun. Technically you can try and lynch the gun to clear the other guns, but I really don't think the payoff is worth it.

Paragon · Post Post #290 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:34 pm

Basically: we don't mass claim.

That being said... I am a venus fly trap. Take that as you will.

Paragon · Post Post #291 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:36 pm

In post 288, eyestott wrote:So my question to you is:
When does the benefits of a mass claim outweigh the drawbacks? And given that a single fakeclaim from town would ruin said plan, how likely do you think a town fakeclaim would be?

Maybe once one scum is dead, and there's only 3 scenarios, all of which result in the 2 scum either being in the same group (clearing the other group) or different groups (narrowing down possible pairs from factorial based to multiplication based)

Yeah, you're right. It becomes a lot more useful after the first scum is dead. I haven't actually played this setup before, so I'm sure others that have can chip in here with some back breaking insight.

Paragon · Post Post #292 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:40 pm

Your vote is looking lonely and unused there, eyestort. Do you fancy joining me on cakez? He essentially sheeped someone else who gut read Something_Smart as scum without giving any reasons for it.

Paragon · Post Post #293 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:40 pm

*eyestott

eyestott · Post Post #294 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:49 pm

In post 292, Paragon wrote:Your vote is looking lonely and unused there, eyestort. Do you fancy joining me on cakez? He essentially sheeped someone else who gut read Something_Smart as scum without giving any reasons for it.

Sure!
VOTE: cakez

Firebringer · Post Post #295 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:50 pm

In post 277, DonCorleone wrote:Hmm, momo is posting a elsewhere on site but chose not to respond to his role PM in this game. Also, firebringer appears to be happy. I’m moving him out of my townreads and into my probable scum group.

thank u sir

chkflip · Post Post #296 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:53 pm

Paragon, I will only be calling them eyestort now tyvm.

All I see is SC saying they gut-scum-read S_S and that it has solidified since. Being that I'm in a similar boat, and genuinely do this on the regular, I'm not understanding how one can be accused of sheeping a gut read. Is your position basically that you think this is an instance of scum going with the flow of what they think is an easy wagon?

Paragon · Post Post #297 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:02 pm

In post 33, Something_Smart wrote:The best way to get out of RVS as quickly as possible is to not do RVS.

In post 55, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 37, Firebringer wrote:do u actually want to get out of rvs cause this isn't doing it.
Sure but not when I made that post. When I made that post I wanted to sleep.

These were Something_Smart's 2 posts of content at this point.

I have to multi-part because mobile is a pain.

eyestott · Post Post #298 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:04 pm

In post 289, Paragon wrote:I'm not actually sure whether scum want to shoot for roses or guns. Shooting for a rose poses a decent chance of the shot being wasted, while shooting for guns are guaranteed kill-shots. I think it depends whether the rose elimination strat is viable, and I don't think it really is based on the number we have. Gun claims are probably just free shots for scum.

If we mass claim, scenario 1 or 4 never happens for obvious reasons. Scum are gonna claim so they don't confirm one of the pools. 2 would probably claim rose, and the other gun. Technically you can try and lynch the gun to clear the other guns, but I really don't think the payoff is worth it.

At this point, guns are so much more likely to hit town than scum, I reckon scum would be fine with leaving guns alive until they've 'thrown away their...
SHOT'
I think that waiting till 1 scum is dead is probably the best middle ground too.

Paragon · Post Post #299 (ISO) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:04 pm

In post 30, lilith2013 wrote:VOTE: something smart

No RVS vote?

In post 34, lilith2013 wrote:Then consider my vote non-RVS.

In post 59, SirCakez wrote:
In post 16, eyestott wrote:Has a lynch ever actually been achieved during RVS?
Yes...just look at any of Radja's games lol. We used to call it the Radja day 1 curse, someone would always be lynched within 5 pages.

VOTE: S_S
serious vote
sadly I think you may have rolled scum my friend

Maybe SirCakez gutreads him for the same reason Lilith does, but this "serious vote" did alarm me.