Mini Normal 2135 (Endgame)

[Persivul]

Can we be lynching Persivul now? I'm tired of his attempts to twist people onto his side by twisting the facts constantly.

He still has done basically nothing all game, yet wants to make out he's a town leader.

I agree that we all want to hear from that slot. But still, I don't see where you really need to hear from that slot to make up your own mind between me and popo. All the facts are there.

I get a feeling it's more "would rather not go to night without everyone" than "I require hearing from that slot right now".

Also, everyone responding to the situation is good in advance of the next day phase, it's much easier for someone to say "I knew that would be the result" after the fact, than making them comment on it before a lynch.

Like I said day one. More information is better for town, never worse.

[Persivul]

Can we be lynching Persivul now? I'm tired of his attempts to twist people onto his side by twisting the facts constantly.

He still has done basically nothing all game, yet wants to make out he's a town leader.

I agree that we all want to hear from that slot. But still, I don't see where you really need to hear from that slot to make up your own mind between me and popo. All the facts are there.

I get a feeling it's more "would rather not go to night without everyone" than "I require hearing from that slot right now".

Also, everyone responding to the situation is good in advance of the next day phase, it's much easier for someone to say "I knew that would be the result" after the fact, than making them comment on it before a lynch.

Like I said day one. More information is better for town, never worse.

[Persivul]

No clue how the duplicate post came up.

[Not Known 15]

Vote Count 3.4

Ruby Red

Riabi

(0)

GeorgeBailey (1)Ruby Red;

mavsfan41 (0)

popopopopopopo

Luca Blight

(2)Tanner;Persivul;

UnaBombaH (0)

PranaDevil (0)

Knightmare491 (0)

Persivul (3)PranaDevil;popopopopopopo;mavsfan41;

Tanner (0)

NoLynch(0)

Not Voting(3):UnaBombaH;Knightmare491;GeorgeBailey;

With 9 alive it is 5 to lynch.
Day 3 ends in (expired on 2020-05-11 23:14:00) or when a lynch has been achieved.

Ruby Red is being replaced. Deadline extended by 12 hours due to one slot being replaced twice in a single game day.

[Tanner]

A quick PSA:

While lynching scum (e.g. popo) is obviously superior to lynching Town (e.g. Persi), no-lynching in this dayphase (most likely Day before lylo, two conflicting claims) is literal gamethrowing. We have 36 hours left. If the replacement doesn't come in reasonably soon, and if there's no extension, y'all who are not voting right now (i.e. Una, Knightmare, George) need to be ready to actually vote. So start making your minds up.

[GeorgeBailey]

Ok, I just did. Here's a list of all Mini Normals played in the last year and a half or so without a single Town investigative.

There's one problem with this:

None of those setups had a miller.

Going through, the only double miller setup I could find was this:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=71689

And it most definitely had a cop.

Other setups with miller were:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=74651
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=72515
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=65794
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=71618
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=62688
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=64039

One-shot Cop is looking a lot likelier than Town follower but I still don't really know.

But on the flip, it seems like double miller is incredibly rare. So much so that i'm starting to doubt Mavs again.

But it's shitty, cause like, there HAS to be a rolecop, right? I can't imagine there even being 1 miller without a role cop or any way with dealing with it.

I think if there's another cop, they should out right now. Because looking at the other setups there are usually only 1 cop roles.

[Knightmare491]

2 things make sense and I cannot decide which one I should go with.

[Tanner]

George, there was a different problem with that too: there definitely is at least one Town investigative because one of popo and Persi are Town. I was pointing those setups out because of a hypothetical that didn't have much to do with the game anyway.

There doesn't HAVE to be a Cop/Rolecop just because we have a Miller. There also doesn't have to be a Cop either. Stop rolefishing.

[PranaDevil]

Yeah, if there IS a cop... do not out yourself.

We lynch Persi, and learn loads by that alone. If he's scum we can look into that, if he's town, popo is insta-lynched.

[GeorgeBailey]

If there's a cop we don't have to risk the mislynch.

[Persivul]

The gamestate is: either a rolecop or a tracker. Read my game. Read luca/popo. Decide which one is townier. Vote.

Point being I find it troubling that with this gamestate and this little time left, George is talking setup spec. Looks like he wants to be able to pin his eventual decision on mechanics, rather than reads.

[Persivul]

2 things make sense and I cannot decide which one I should go with.

Go with the one where popo gets lynched.

[Tanner]

If there's a cop we don't have to risk the mislynch.

If there is a Cop who has either a clear or a guilty on either of Persi or popo and he

hasn't

come out yet, then he's a fucking moron. Otherwise, the Cop (which probably doesn't even exist, let's be honest) stays quiet, and we lynch one of the two. That is what's mechanically optimal ffs.

[GeorgeBailey]

Looks like he wants to be able to pin his eventual decision on mechanics, rather than reads.

Mechanics are a lot more tangible. You were both on the Red Panda wagon, and both would make the Farside NK. So I think reducing it down to "who's role seems likelier in this setup" is fair.

[PranaDevil]

The gamestate is: either a rolecop or a tracker. Read my game. Read luca/popo. Decide which one is townier. Vote.

Point being I find it troubling that with this gamestate and this little time left, George is talking setup spec. Looks like he wants to be able to pin his eventual decision on mechanics, rather than reads.

This right here. Regardless of Persi's side, people need to make a decision which way they are voting, and actually put a vote down, because a no-lynch does not help town, so work out who you feel is scummier and vote for them. Ideally let the disappearing town/scum slot get back to say something, but be prepared to vote if it comes to it.

Discussing set up spec so close to end of day, especially when set up spec boils down to "we need an investigative role" is not helping town... nor is ignoring the fact that we have two claimed investigative roles that do not exist together in this game (unless Persi is a scum rolecop of course)

If there's a cop we don't have to risk the mislynch.

If there is a Cop who has either a clear or a guilty on either of Persi or popo and he

hasn't

come out yet, then he's a fucking moron. Otherwise, the Cop (which probably doesn't even exist, let's be honest) stays quiet, and we lynch one of the two. That is what's mechanically optimal ffs.

All of this too.

[Tanner]

Looks like he wants to be able to pin his eventual decision on mechanics, rather than reads.

Mechanics are a lot more tangible. You were both on the Red Panda wagon, and both would make the Farside NK. So I think reducing it down to "who's role seems likelier in this setup" is fair.

It's not, because of two reasons.
(1) you don't know the entire setup, and therefore can't say which role is more likely. (especially considering your knowledge of Normals.) And even if we massclaimed today (which we don't have time for anyway), ratio of scum to Town is too high to draw an accurate conclusion.
(2) that's assuming popo's and Persi's plays so far were equal. They weren't. Have you read any of popo's posts. Holy fuck.

Also, I have an interesting theory on why [town!Tanner and scum!Persi] are very very unlikely at this point. Do you think I'm Town? If so, I might be able to sell you on it.

[UnaBombaH]

popopopopopopo (2)Tanner;Persivul;

+

Persivul (3)PranaDevil;popopopopopopo;mavsfan41;

This almost has to have 2/3 scum in it.
Like, it's not an "Heureka"-moment that'll blow me away, but I feel like I'm seeing it more clearly now.

mavs' turn on Persivul seems forced, and is actually the biggest red flag to me when it comes to choosing between Pers/popopppopoop being scum.
I can only see it the same way that I originally felt about the Rolecop-claim - that they are both scum and this claim by popopopopo turned their plans around.
Persivul+mavs = scum -> Tanner is a townie being lead on by the nose?
I've had my gutfeels about the slot ever since the beginning, but I guess they could've been off anyway.

On the other side of the coin is obviously popopoppopopo+Prana.
The biggest reason for my continued suspiciousness here, has been the way Prana has been forcing narratives throughout the game.
First it was against me and my "reaction-test" towards the Drew-Sta -lynch, and now it's the way they are coloring their posts about this whole popopoppopo vs Pers situation.

[UnaBombaH]

Why the fuck would a claimed role cop make the night kill?

Seems like obvious tracker bait.

If Perisvul is scum, weird decision.

Intent to vote Persivul

but don’t want a self-hammer in this situation.

Prana would be cleared (my bad Prana...).

THIS.
Exactly this.
Think about it folks - if Persivul were to be a scum!RoleCop, he would never check OR kill Eve here.
They already knew Eves role since it was globally revealed, and they'd want a result from Persivul.
So someone else would've done the killing anyway since Eve was the target.

This stuck out to me when I was rereading this gameday.
We agree on the sillyness of Pers claiming Rolecop -> committing the kill N2 towards the IC, but we arrive at a completely different conclusion.

I'm hesitant in allowing this to guide me too much, but Persivuls play here makes no sense as scum.
Like, it would be superbly weird.
1. Make a claim-gambit
->
2. claim a result that puts you right next to the no-lynch/lynch -line but stand by your claims
->
3.

ADD IN A ONE-SHOT CAVEAT

AFTER MOVING N2 AND DOING THE KILL FOR THE SCUMTEAM (???)

, still considering their target would've been someone that simply doesn't fit their claim.
->
4. Get easily guiltied by all the potential Trackers/Followers/Watchers etc.

[UnaBombaH]

Yet somehow mavs deems it more likely that Pers is scum, and they just decided to claim Rolecop D2 but also risked it all as soon as N2?
Is there something there?

Shouldn't be, because town!Pers always leads to town!mavs.

[UnaBombaH]

You make a GREAT point about why a townie role would be targeting the IC. The only thing I could possibly imagine is a watcher/voyeur (the one where you see who visited that person during the night) on Eve. And that would make sense as Eve was the most likely to be targeted.

Even with this being the case and Eve being dead, if Popopopo is the tracker and targeted Percivul, Percivul would’ve seen who targeted Eve and therefore should be pushing that person as scum and would’ve likely claimed in that scenario.

No way town!Percivul targeted Eve last night and is now pushing Popopopo if Popopo’s telling the truth about being the tracker.

I also have no idea what happened here..?
Why was there ever any talk about Pers being anything other than a 1-shot Rolecop at this point?
Assumed town!Pers, would have NO REASON to target Eve N2, and then withhold the information on why they targeted there, AND THEN CLAIM 1-SHOT ROLECOP.
This straight up feels like scum!mavs trying to find a foothold for not voting Persivul, before deciding to bus instead.

[UnaBombaH]

Yea, I guess this doesn't come down to Persivul vs popopopo after all.
It comes down to mavs vs Prana.

[UnaBombaH]

Yea, I guess this doesn't come down to Persivul vs popopopo after all.
It comes down to mavs vs Prana.

And no, don't be silly.
We are never lynching outside of Pers/popopopopo today.

I just meant that my decision will be based more on how these two slots acted around the claims.

[UnaBombaH]

Yet somehow mavs deems it more likely that Pers is scum, and they just decided to claim Rolecop D2 but also risked it all as soon as N2?
Is there something there?

Shouldn't be, because town!Pers always leads to town!mavs.

I had to write this down separately just because I realized how EASY it would've been to group up all the ones voting for Persivul (on a green flip there, obviously), but since mavs is "cleared" by town!Pers, it's not possible.

[UnaBombaH]

~24hours from now, I'll be putting down my vote.
And as of right now, I'm leaning towards keeping it simply and voting Persivul.
The only reason stopping me from doing so yet, is because I'm still hopeful we might get a replacement that actually says something about the situation and picks a side before the end of the day.

[mavsfan41]

Just posting here to avoid a prod. I’ve got really nothing to add.

I will say however, Persivul pushing George/Popopopo team feels extremely forced. I don’t see how scum!George busses his partner in 857 AND ALSO votes Popopo in 1058. There’s reason enough for him to NOT vote Popopo and keep his vote on Persivul from 901. I just don’t see a scenario where George is scum. The only thing I could possibly maybe see a scum!George scenario is that if Persivul is scum, trying to distance himself as much as possible from George by pushing for a George scum team.

With that said: George straight up role-fishing when the outcome of Day 3 is all but decided between Popopopo/Persivul lynch is wild.