Micro 940: A Normal Blitz II - Game Over

[shiki]

we're massclaiming (i guess), do you mind? Same @shiki actually

i am a vanilla town.

[humaneatingmonkey]

yep totally doing it on purpose, no one else saw it

A genie tells you I'm town. Who do you think is the scum team?

[Micc]

Votecount 2.02

Umlaut (1) -

humaneatingmonkey

Hiraki (1) -

Madoka

humaneatingmonkey (1) -

Hiraki

Not Voting (4) -

Datisi, shiki, HoldenGolden, Umlaut

With 7 players alive it takes 4 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 2 is in (expired on 2020-05-21 11:30:00).

[shiki]

VOTE: umlaut

[Madoka]

shiki, is Madoka scum?

Shiki, did you have an answer for this?

[Madoka]

But can you still explain why you believe Umlaut? IMO there's a lot of reasons not to believe him.
Also, how confident are you in that monkey-bugs were similar to monkey-shiki?

I will reconsider Umlaut, and I will look through the bugs stuff now.

[shiki]

Shiki, did you have an answer for this?

was waiting to see if either of you would point this out.

We have a mislynch, correct? I say we just lynch Hiraki and if he flips green it is HEM + Shiki.

this^ feels like it is attempting to set up a mafia victory. paired with the suspicious nature of umlaut's vote on me early game i feel like madoka is umlaut's most likely partner. madoka townreading my read of said vote and referring to it as paranoia could have been an attempt to subtly get me to stop thinking about it.

[humaneatingmonkey]

okay but what is madoka's meta as scum according to you?

[shiki]

okay but what is madoka's meta as scum according to you?

on madoka she has never rolled scum. outside of madoka, i really don't think my meta on her is useful, as last time i applied it i did so incorrectly despite having read all of her games in order to do so. her effort is nai as hoctac said earlier. i think reading her intentions is the best i can do.

[Madoka]

was waiting to see if either of you would point this out.

For what purpose?

[shiki]

For what purpose?

it seemed like town would probably be slightly more likely to want the answer to it, and it didn't feel time sensitive.

[Madoka]

If it has not influenced your read, what was the use?

[shiki]

If it has not influenced your read, what was the use?

it has influenced my read, but it certainly isn't the only factor. it has also influenced my read of monkey.

[Umlaut]

Since absolutely no one asked what Hoctac and I discussed in the nhood, here's a fairly comprehensive summary. Nothing super useful that I can see, but I want to be transparent now. I'm highlighting parts that talk about our reads on other players specifically in case you don't want to wade through a bunch of inconsequential posts.

Spoiler: This is kind of long

Pregame

• 1-5: "oh hey, it's you"-style chatter
  6: I asked Hoctac if there's more to his role
  7: he claimed Miller Watcher (bcuz Hoctac)
  8: I side-eyed the claim but said if he was serious and was town then I could blatantly soft a PR and he could watch me (but really if he had stuck with the claim I would have just disbelieved it and likely voted him day 1)
  9: Hoctac retracted the claim but suggested what we actually did, saying either one of us would get shot instead of a real PR or else one of us was scum
  10-11: I went along with it and specified "you just lolclaim and I'll come in and get pissy about it"
  12: Hoctac said he was looking forward to it

Day 1

• 13-15: we agreed to probably back off talking about the claim because continuing to talk about it would make it more dubious
  16: I said as long as we never actually deny it outright scum will probably work on the assumption it's true
  17: Hoctac said people don't seem to be buying it
  
  18: Hoctac said Datisi's naked vote might be trying to force a full claim (I assume this was about 118)
  
  19: Hoctac said I was seeming kind of scummy to him and asked why I had no reads on anyone
  20: I said I'd been distracted from the game
  21-22: Hoctac said okay and that he was doubling down
  23: I said also I've been kind of so worried about keeping up appearances with the claim that I forgot to scumhunt
  24: Hoctac lol'd
  
  25: I said I think HEM hard-disbelieving the Mason claim is towny
  
  
  26: Hoctac agreed re. HEM, said Datisi was pinging him, and that he was having trouble reading shiki
  
  
  27: Hoctac said shiki's takes have been pretty good since 70
  
  28: I asked if Hoctac thought what he was seeing scummy in me was what HoldenGolden was seeing, because I was mildly pinged by his push on me but not if the post really was suspicious from an outside perspective
  29: Hoctac just said HG's reasoning for that push was weak (this kind of bothered me since it didn't really answer the question I asked)
  30: I said I didn't want to post in the main thread until we talked about whether to retract the claim or double down again
  
  31: I wrote out pretty much the thoughts I eventually shared here in 230, except I added that I'm pretty sure Hoctac is town because the Datisi push and his way of presenting it appeared like genuine sorting to me
  
  
  32: I said HEM's suspicions of HG also seemed genuine to me, but so did HG's responses
  
  33: I told Hoctac if he didn't get back in two hours I was just going to confess our real roles
  34: [Question for the mod]
  
  35: I gave a readlist: HEM and Hoctac town, HG probtown, GeorgeBailey scum, idk about everyone else
  
  
  36: Hoctac reappeared and said let's go all in, also said he didn't really buy that HEM would think backtracking now is "not AI" but doing so later would be, and that HEM could be scum who just really needs to know for sure that we're masons and wanted to confirm it
  
  
  37: Hoctac said HEM's progression on HG felt unnatural to him, that he townleans shiki, and that my reasons for scumleaning her are just how she plays
  
  
  38-39: Hoctac liked Madoka's read on Datisi, liked Holden for town but wanted to meta-dive his scum game
  
  40: I confirmed I was going all in, said I would be super salty if Hoctac was scum
  41: Hoctac said he probably
  wouldn't
  be salty if I was, since this was all his idea
  42: [Answer from the mod]
  43: I asked Hoctac why he said he wanted to end the day in 43
  44: Hoctac said it was a joke
  
  45: Hoctac said George had an unwilling-to-offend tone to him that might be scum
  
  
  46: Hoctac pointed out shiki was dead-on about the mason gambit
  
  47: Hoctac pointed out scum might have information from their own roles that would let them genuinely doubt a mason claim
  
  48: Hoctac said this is why HEM's doubt was not necessarily as town-indicative as I thought
  (though in retrospect given that there really are masons scum couldn't possibly have 'known' there weren't)
  49: I said shiki's accuracy was awesome yet annoying, and that I was getting paranoid of a scum!Hoctac killing me to "clear" himself as town
  50-51: Hoctac said he hadn't thought of that, also said it was kind of towny of me to consider it now
  52-53: Hoctac jokes
  
  54-55: I said I wanted to see if Hiraki retracted his suspicion after HEM explained the misread, and if not then I wanted us both to further pressure him on that and see if he flinches (spoiler: he didn't)
  
  
  56: I said one of us could also raise the point that HEM eventually changed his mind about pushing the mason claim, and see if someone like e.g. Hiraki jumps on it,because it's a weak point and pushing it further could be scum-indicative
  
  57: I acknowledged Hoctac's 47
  58: Hoctac said he was raising the point I brought up in 56
  59-67: banter
  
  68: Hoctac said he was unsure how to take Madoka's accepting the mason claims at face value and that it didn't seem like her, but maybe she had more suspicion than she was letting on
  
  69: Hoctac asked how I was reading him
  70: I said probtown but asked why it mattered
  71: I said we should try and gamesolve during the night so if one dies the other can share their thoughts

Night 1

• 72: VOICE OF MOD:
  73: Hoctac said he's not confident I'm town but agreed to work on solving at night;
  Hoctac said the hammer looked really scummy (for the reasons I've shared in this thread) and thought maybe Datisi feared people would be convinced by Madoka's case and wanted to end the day asap
  
  74: I said good point
  
  75: I said Hiraki's "don't townread me for that" in 319 caught my eye because I have seen scum players attempt to get towncred for refusing a townread and I was trying to figure out if this was an example of that, and that while this didn't seem to quite fit that pattern it was still stuck in my head
  
  76: I complained about not feeling great
  
  77: I said HEM and Madoka are the towniest towns to me, and if we can convince ourselves HG is also town then we can just lynch everyone else to win

And then it was Day 2

[Madoka]

I honestly do not know how everyone else (shiki) knew the mason claim was not legitimate. Her IQ is too high (or it is a knowledge slip from being Umlaut's partner).

[Umlaut]

I mean, I know it's not a knowledge slip from being Umlaut's partner, but whether you know that or not you have to admit she quite clearly and deliberately presented it as a

deduction

and that can't really be called a slip in any case.

[Umlaut]

Also, in case anyone hasn't noticed and is still uncertain about this: Datisi's and HG's claims are pretty much 100% confirmed unless you believe the NRG passed a setup where town's entire PR roster is a pair of Neighbors.

[Madoka]

My vibe on the similarity between your interaction with Bugs in Blitz I and Shiki here comes from how often you mentioned them. Despite bugs being a town lean, you mentioned their name more than any player in Blitz I.

B1

Holden - 6 = 4%
Luca - 8 = 5%
George - 9 = 6%
Shiki - 9 = 6%
Madoka - 10 = 7%
Datisi - 29 = 19%
Hiraki - 30 = 20%
Bugs - 48 = 32%

B2

HoldenGolden - 2 = 1%
GeorgeBailey 10 = 6%
Datisi - 9 = 6%
Madoka -17 = 11%
Hoctac -19 = 11%
Umlaut - 23 = 14%
shiki - 30 = 18%
Hiraki -50 = 31%

(Approximate)

Additionally, both the way you've called out shiki's name here and the way you spoke of bugs felt unnatural to me, as if you were trying to keep in good light. That being said, it would be funny if Hiraki was actually your partner here and this is a legitimate partner tell.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Hiraki and I being partners is something I want to see someday. Maybe in Blitz III.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Madoka, have you accounted for nicknames like HG and GB?

[humaneatingmonkey]

I seriously got curious about the stats

[Umlaut]

Here's the last vote count of yesterday, color-coded:

GeorgeBailey

(5) -

Umlaut

,

HoldenGolden

, Hiraki,

Hoctac

,

Datisi

Hiraki (2) -

humaneatingmonkey,

GeorgeBailey

Datisi

(1) -

Madoka

Not Voting (1) -

shiki

(I get to be blue because my role PM says I'm town, if you want to be blue then make your own post)

Either GeorgeBailey was subject to an all-town mislynch or Hiraki is scum. And I think it's pretty clear Hiraki's vote for GeorgeBailey was to some extent survivalistic in nature, given that it came when he was at L-1.

To rule out the all-town possibility I want to read through and see if there was any of {HEM, Madoka, shiki} were either null or inconsistent or wishy-washy on GeorgeBailey, because even if they would prefer to stay off a mislynch I'd think scum would want to leave open at least the possibility of self-consistently voting for him if it was necessary to push the wagon over the edge. If not then Hiraki is pretty much definitely scum afaic.

[HoldenGolden]

I'm actually currently in a middle of a breif VCA analysis of day one (I typically dont do it day 2, but since either me or Datisi is gonna die, might as well get it out in the thread and save Datisi the trouble of having to paraphrase it).

The VCA from when george began becoming the dominant wagon prior to the HEM/Hiraki is more worthwhile to look at imo and I'll explain why with the post coming up

[HoldenGolden]

My vibe on the similarity between your interaction with Bugs in Blitz I and Shiki here comes from how often you mentioned them. Despite bugs being a town lean, you mentioned their name more than any player in Blitz I.

B1

Holden - 6 = 4%
Luca - 8 = 5%
George - 9 = 6%
Shiki - 9 = 6%
Madoka - 10 = 7%
Datisi - 29 = 19%
Hiraki - 30 = 20%
Bugs - 48 = 32%

B2

HoldenGolden - 2 = 1%
GeorgeBailey 10 = 6%
Datisi - 9 = 6%
Madoka -17 = 11%
Hoctac -19 = 11%
Umlaut - 23 = 14%
shiki - 30 = 18%
Hiraki -50 = 31%

(Approximate)

Additionally, both the way you've called out shiki's name here and the way you spoke of bugs felt unnatural to me, as if you were trying to keep in good light. That being said, it would be funny if Hiraki was actually your partner here and this is a legitimate partner tell.

Also how is this factoring in the fact that bugs was the day 1 lynch which would force more interaction out of HEM versus here where Shiki hasn't had a serious bandwagon?

[humaneatingmonkey]

GeorgeBailey (5) - Umlaut,

HoldenGolden

, Hiraki,

Hoctac

,

Datisi

Hiraki (2) -

humaneatingmonkey

,

GeorgeBailey

Datisi (1) - Madoka

Not Voting (1) - shiki

Or alternatively.