Mini Normal 2141: The World of Tomorrow [Game over!]

[Umlaut]

Vote Count 2.1

ready2rock

(2): Gammagooey, mavsfan41

CantLynchAPuppy

(1): votato

Gammagooey

(1): Blair

votato

(1): Quick

Not Voting

(6): ready2rock, CantLynchAPuppy, VP Baltar, midwaybear, Atarashi Hajimari, Dunnstral

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-05-30 13:06:00)

Notes:

• Atarashi Hajimari has (expired on 2020-05-21 13:06:00) to pick up their prod from yesterday.

[votato]

r2r has yet to give a single confident original read. everything has been hedged, most reads are wishy washy and neutral.

Spoiler: r2r analysis

OK hey everyone

-Overall thoughts on votato are that I don't love some of the things he's saying, for instance, I find it kind of amusing how in post 80 he's talking about how there's "so many votes to place" and that he's suspicious of a ton of people, then a few pages later keeps repeatedly insisting that it's way too early to determine anything. Also not a fan of 301 when he misinterprets what puppy is saying. On the other hand, his overall style and tone feels too abrasive and overly defensive, which I feel like would be really bad for scum to do this early. Not sure what to make of him atm.

-Agreed on Quick v Blair being TvT

-Do agree that more scum may be hiding among the more inactive, and yes I realize that's coming from me leave me alone it's been a long day and I'm tired

-Among active people, I think my biggest suspicion is on VP, as he seems to be trying to jump on minor more obvious things people say

pedit: OK was about to vote and wanted to look for the last vote count first and 2 new votes on VP happened, brb gonna go count

"wishy washy on votato, agree with some other people"

@Umlaut: Does scum have daytalk?

DENIED.

That is WAY too many to "show you are Town" so...

VOTE: Nauci

I don't buy this line of reasoning, I can't honestly see a scum!Nauci somehow thinking she's so clever by oh so subtly slipping out a towntell

eh this isnt really hedged but doesnt really do much either

Possibly, I suppose I'll revise and say that I don't think it's any more likely to come from scum trying to plant the idea than town trying to determine gamestate

For the record I lean slight town on her in general, and I don't think this affects that read either way

but here comes the hedge.

So your case on me revolves around me misreading the vote count? That's pretty flimsy, which to me strengthens my case that you latch onto minor flimsy mistakes that people make.

Here's my timeline, I reread the thread and posted my thoughts on the game as a whole at that moment, voicing my suspicion of VP among other things. In that time, there were almost 10 new posts made, including both votes on VP. Since I wanted to get my post out there before even more happened, and I hadn't payed a ton of attention to a specific number of votes in the meantime, I wanted to go back and double check that I wasn't putting you at L-1 or anything. When I went back and read, I realized that I had read a vote on you and someone else quoting a vote on you as 2 votes, hence why I was saying that I was the 2nd vote. But now that I'm rereading again today, I realize I was right the first time and didn't see votato's vote in double checking

I don't understand what the difference would be between me being 2nd or 3rd on the wagon?

Also, is me being scum dependent on votato being scum, or the other way around? If one is town, is the other still scum?

@Blair My read on quick is slight town, though I find some of the way he's been responding to some people quite unhelpful. He explained his thought process in a lot of detail to me last night, but then to other people say that he doesn't see the point of trying to explain. I also think he's gonna be the hardest to read for me, so I don't want to push anything on him day 1 anyways

explaining the vote count error thing, then a weak read on quick

@ready2rock: in 403 you mention votato and imply he’s scummy more than he’s town, but then do backtrack that a little. Any thoughts on him now? Also, why place the vote on VP Baltar vs votato when voting in 409 after previously believing votato scum and not even expressing an opinion on VP Baltar previously or even when you placed your vote?

I think if you read back my post you'll see that my read on him was pretty much neutral. I'd basically said that I wasn't a big on his style out the gate, but I'm not sure that scum would be so abrasive this early (e.g. his "fuck you" post). I also think his posts have gotten a bit better as the game has progressed, including since I've made that post, though still hit and miss on how strong his reasoning is.

So yeah, some good, some bad, overall neutral

My overall point about VP is that I think he's mostly the one who I think has been going for the low hanging fruit in the way that people are accusing votato of doing

@Quick Any more specific reasoning to share behind your townread on VP?

"So yeah, some good, some bad, overall neutral" that says it all. the thing about VP is ok maybe? eh

You know what, I can get on board with this

UNVOTE:
VOTE: NoPowerOverMe

I think his cases in general have been very flimsy, which wasn't enough for me in and of itself, but the fact that you're pointing out of him being inconsistent with the supposed basis behind his reads has swayed me

Am still keeping an eye on VP though. List coming shortly because I probably should have a while ago

a vote because NPOM wasnt doing enough good solving? this seems like sheeping with a weaker version of the read that other people were giving.

Town: Blair, Atarashi, Puppy

Lean town: Quick, Nauci

Neutral (because I'm uncertain on my read): Mavs, Votato

Neutral (because there isn't enough to go on): Peter Pan, Gamma, iDany

Lean Scum: NPOM, VP

hey look, a readlist. but as we've seen the reasoning is pretty meh. also, most of the reads come after people specifically asked. the people not asked about? theres no read.

Putting pressure on is not the same as tunneling.

On Atarashi, it's nothing super deep, just like the posts they've made early, and didn't really love the case being made against him, but we'll have to see how they are when they come back

an admittedly weak read.

I think I've pinpointed the main issue I have with NPOM, which is that he's boiling down the game into very simplistic terms. Lurking is scummy. Hesitation is town. People on wagons are scummy.

What I find scummy about that is that it's easy and convenient to then take that and fit people into nice little boxes, and even have your read go wildly back and forth, without really having to justify it all that much, and to meld those broad generalizations into whatever read suits you at that point in the game

@VP Thoughts on NPOM and his case/wagon? (want this answered before I reapply my vote)

@Mod

Should Atarashi get a prod, or am I misreading prod timers?

ehhhh i guess this counts as content

Couple of thoughts

Starting to raise some eyebrows at Nauci, particularly the way she seems to be indirectly defending NPOM to Quick. Still leaning town, but might be worth looking at if NPOM flips scum, which I'm feeling better and better about.

Mavs is coming across as more town to me, feels much more like he's actively participating and scumhunting rather than searching for tiny details to nitpick.

I have noticed that votato has changed his tone since the start of the game, and it seems to have taken the target off his back. Not sure if this is a scumtell in and of itself, but may affect my read if other things come to light

i dont remember nauci's reads, but this could implicate r2r in the murder maybe. sheeps a consensus mav read, and then takes my being townread as reason not to townread me.

pedit: blair isnt ruling out the possibility of a bus, shes arguing for why it isnt a bus

wow this was actually pretty convincing. i guess I'll sheep it. VOTE: r2r

[Quick]

>>> gives reads
>>> waits
>>> goes and finds reasons to have those reads

That's exactly what I did D1 and it turned out bad.

Also, where is VP so far today? I really want his take on all this since he is a fairly stron Town Lean for me rn.

[midwaybear]

I’ll be honest, I had a slight scum read on Nauci. Anyone have a hypothesis on why it was her?

I don't think scum says that they scumread the NK.

[ready2rock]

So reflecting on Quick and Blair yesterday, their movement throughout the day seems strange, mostly from how they went from tunneling each other for pages straight to suddenly uniting to lynch NPOM. For a few pages, it was like the rest of were running a marathon, working to catch scum, while the two of them were racing in laps around a track, arguing with each other. Then suddenly, they start agreeing on this “slip,” realize that everyone else is miles away from them, and Quick especially starts pushing for a NPOM lynch.

@Quick/Blair: was there anything deeper behind your motivation to push each other so much aside from your suspicion of each other? And if so, was there anything you got out of it?

I’ll summarize my thoughts that I had yesterday on VP in this way: he talked about not liking the phrase “low hanging fruit.” What I meant by using that is that I personally feel that one of the better ways to look for scum is to look at overall broad patterns of behavior, because I think it’s rare to catch scum in a super obvious slip or one particular vote (it’s part of that philosophy that Blair found of me 10 years ago saying I dislike day 1. So what I didn’t like about VP is that even early on he seemed to be trying to pick on particular bits of phrasing that were slightly off and build an entire case around it, where if anything I feel like scum would be overly cautious with their phrasing (27, 74, and 535 are a couple of examples of this kind of thing). To me reading, especially those early posts, it felt like scum not being able to do actual scumhunting and so trying to reach for supposed “slips” or tiny bits of phrasing. Later on in the day I found his post to be better, so I want to see how this day develops.

866 - I’m not sure I like Gamma jumping right on the opportunity to jump on the next most popular wagon from yesterday in me. Feels like wanting to push the scumread on me to end the day even faster on day 2. Kind of similar for Mavs jumping and suddenly shifting to reading votato as scum, but gamma jumps out to me more since I’m 100% in my town alignment, vs only leaning town-neutral on votato, plus mavs later shifts back on this, which feels genuine

879 - The reason I asked VP that question is because he was the only one who was semi-active and not on the record about NPOM. Since I thought at the time that he was my most likely candidate for scum, I didn’t want to end the day with him not posting any thoughts on his wagon.

889 sums up my thoughts on yesterday’s wagon really well. Blair is making a lot of sense overall and it’s kind of unsettling me tbh, could be she’s very good and convincing scum

Caught up to my own post from earlier and this took longer than I thought, so gonna put these thoughts out there then continue in a little bit

[Dunnstral]

In this thread: people saying my hammer was bad, but when quick was saying to hammer the guy yesterday they didn't comment on that at all

That guy was a night 4 vigilante. Kind of a weird role for a mini normal It is heavily implied that there is another vigilante, because town killing into an even number of players in the day is bad (especially on night 4, where it brings the number from 5 people alive to 4 people alive, assuming no other kills or protects).

man, i was hoping after that atrocious hammer and missing the last few pages that i'd be nightkilled out of this game

i do want to get votato again, came into this thread two days ago to put my vote back there only to find the thread locked

any questions anyone had from yesterday that i missed, let me know and i'll answer

Thoughts:

1. Upon analysis, Gamma can talk more. Need to resolve this slot.

2. There is a lot of speculation about scum being on the NPOM wagon - which is fair, because more than half the game was on that wagon. Unless you think ALL the scum were on that wagon, however, we should probably be looking just as hard at the people who were off of it:

All seven voters from the NPOM wagon are alive today, only four of the people who were off of that wagon are alive today.

I like my odds better hunting in the group of four than the group of seven today. I do not believe it is likely that the entire scum team jumped on the Day 1 mislynch together.

That leaves at least one scum in here:

Gammagooey
VP Baltar
CantLynchAPuppy
iDanyboy

Out of that group, we can hunt for people who seemed to avoid the wagon in anticipation of a town flip. My best guesses there are Gamma and Puppy.

Gamma seemed to be reaching really hard to find a defense of NPOM where there wasn't one in their back and forth with me shortly before the lynch (not saying there was no good defense of NPOM, but the one Gamma chose fell apart upon inspection - even NPOM didn't go along with it). Gamma had very few posts during Day 1, and this awkward conversation made up about 30% of them.

Puppy swooped in to support a counterwagon with a pretty flimsy post shortly before the lynch as well.

Of those two, Gamma seems more likely to flip scum to me.

VOTE: Gammagooey

"Ok, nobody respond to anything Blair says and mysteriously oppose a Gamma wagon without explanation." - A voice everybody but me can hear, apparently

Gun to my head, if I had to solve right now it would be:

Gamma

+

Puppy

/Midway +

Mavs

/Atarashi/Quick

Bolds being my best guesses, sorted left to right by confidence both within each slot and overall.

The Mav read is my highest confidence for a third scum, but still isn't very high at all - and that's if there even are three scum.

The lurkers are basically just me accounting for the unknowable. We need more content from those slots to sort them.

I like most of this.

VOTE: Gammagooey

[ready2rock]

OK reading there wasn't as much content after that as I was worried there might be.

@Blair like I said in the last post I feel like you're making a lot of sense, but that also makes me wary that you're currently being as convincing as you are, so want to see a bit more before I put down a vote

[Blair]

Be less convincing, then you will sheep me.

Got it.

[Blair]

Consider this a trial-run of the Blair System™

The Blair System™ lynches Gammagooey Day 2. It's a good system. It has never failed.

The best thing about blindly following any system like BS™ is that you no longer have to trouble yourself with petty things like "reasons" or "explanations" you can just BS™ your way to endgame.

[Blair]

In this thread: people saying my hammer was bad, but when quick was saying to hammer the guy yesterday they didn't comment on that at all

In this case, a Night 4 Vigilante claim probably wouldn't have changed anything, but generally we tend to frown on hammers that aren't preceded by stated intent and an opportunity for the wagonee to claim.

[Blair]

I really tried to work myself up to counterclaim Moderator with a guilty on Nauci, but I just can't do it, Ready2Rock.

You're just going to have to sheep me even though you think I am making sense. I am sorry to have failed you.

[Dunnstral]

I’ll be honest, I had a slight scum read on Nauci. Anyone have a hypothesis on why it was her?

I don't think scum says that they scumread the NK.

I disagree with this, though I'm not saying mav is scum

[Quick]

@R2R, I got pretty much nothing out of my 1v1 with Blair.

[Dunnstral]

@Quick/Blair: was there anything deeper behind your motivation to push each other so much aside from your suspicion of each other?

Uh, this is what he asked though. Weren't you guys fake tunneling on each other to try to catch scum?

[Quick]

@Quick/Blair: was there anything deeper behind your motivation to push each other so much aside from your suspicion of each other?

Uh, this is what he asked though. Weren't you guys fake tunneling on each other to try to catch scum?

IDK what Blair was doing. That's why I got nothing out of it.

[Blair]

@Quick/Blair: was there anything deeper behind your motivation to push each other so much aside from your suspicion of each other? And if so, was there anything you got out of it?

I hoped to glean something from the thread's reaction - which side others would take, who would try to distract from or amplify it, etc.

Most people just whined about it and skipped most of our posts, and I still haven't made up my mind for sure on what that might mean. It was... off, somehow.

I was also scumreading Quick, though, so I wouldn't call it "fake" like Dunn is suggesting.

[Blair]

I find it easiest to sort players through extending 1:1 interactions. I also find those interactions fun and engaging, much to the chagrin of the rest of the thread.

I'll definitely do it a few more times before this game concludes.

[Dunnstral]

unvote

Vote: Blair

VOTE: Blair

I would love to see Blair Tunnel this about now.

unvote

Vote: Blair

eggs, plain

Both of you: what votato said

Mine had a double meaning.

Way too much fun.

I thought that this suggested that it was staged

[Dunnstral]

If anyone doesn't know what I'm talking about there:

Quick says Blair Tunnel with the words being capitalized in post 191, and then the two start going at each other, and quick says the post has a double meaning, and then later he points it out again

[Quick]

unvote

Vote: Blair

VOTE: Blair

I would love to see Blair Tunnel this about now.

unvote

Vote: Blair

eggs, plain

Both of you: what votato said

Mine had a double meaning.

Way too much fun.

I thought that this suggested that it was staged

Yeah, that was given NPOM was Scum like I thought they were. Their Town and Blair sheeping me of all people rubs me all kinds of wrong because people never sheep me. It's also the way it was done which is almost like Blair saying, "I'm Scum and you are never going to catch me."

[Blair]

Hot Take: Scum!Blair would have *actually* said "You are never going to catch me"

[Blair]

(Kind of like Quick saying he is unlynchable every ten pages)

[mavsfan41]

@votato: I see what you did there with 976

@Dunnstral: with regards to 980, I’ve stated this in an earlier post, but I didn’t have an issue with the hammer. My issue (and I think others feel the same way here) was the lack of conviction and underwhelming catch up for the hammer. That post read more like a “let’s start a wagon/add some pressure here” and not like “this dude is straight up scum!”

[midwaybear]

for some reason, I am townreading r2r
I also had the impression that Quick v Blair might have been theatre, so I appreciate Dunnstral mentioning it.

[Quick]

man, i was hoping after that atrocious hammer and missing the last few pages that i'd be nightkilled out of this game

i do want to get votato again, came into this thread two days ago to put my vote back there only to find the thread locked

any questions anyone had from yesterday that i missed, let me know and i'll answer

Thoughts:

1. Upon analysis, Gamma can talk more. Need to resolve this slot.

2. There is a lot of speculation about scum being on the NPOM wagon - which is fair, because more than half the game was on that wagon. Unless you think ALL the scum were on that wagon, however, we should probably be looking just as hard at the people who were off of it:

All seven voters from the NPOM wagon are alive today, only four of the people who were off of that wagon are alive today.

I like my odds better hunting in the group of four than the group of seven today. I do not believe it is likely that the entire scum team jumped on the Day 1 mislynch together.

That leaves at least one scum in here:

Gammagooey
VP Baltar
CantLynchAPuppy
iDanyboy

Out of that group, we can hunt for people who seemed to avoid the wagon in anticipation of a town flip. My best guesses there are Gamma and Puppy.

Gamma seemed to be reaching really hard to find a defense of NPOM where there wasn't one in their back and forth with me shortly before the lynch (not saying there was no good defense of NPOM, but the one Gamma chose fell apart upon inspection - even NPOM didn't go along with it). Gamma had very few posts during Day 1, and this awkward conversation made up about 30% of them.

Puppy swooped in to support a counterwagon with a pretty flimsy post shortly before the lynch as well.

Of those two, Gamma seems more likely to flip scum to me.

VOTE: Gammagooey

I feel like you have this backwards. I get what you are trying to do, but it looks really agenda-y.