Mini Normal 2141: The World of Tomorrow [Game over!]

Blair · Post Post #1125 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 8:02 am

In post 1121, VP Baltar wrote:Is there reasoning beyond that I've missed?

I'm trying to avoid hiring a skywriter here.

Yeah, that's the basic premise.

Quick · Post Post #1126 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 8:08 am

In post 1094, VP Baltar wrote:
In post 1086, Blair wrote:P-edit: I'll ISO him and find the quote from him, but basically when I initially looked into the vote count after you said he was lying, I started scrolling and saw "two votes," then realized one of them was actually in a quote block and thought "whoops, that's one vote, actually." I kept scrolling to make sure the quoted vote was current, and it was, but guessed that R2R probably didn't do that diligence. That ended up being his explanation, and since his explanation matched my (unstated) explanation, I'm inclined to believe it.
Looking back at this as well. He explained his reasoning in #547, which you say you believed.

But in post #570 you said this:

In post 570, Blair wrote:No, I think R2R lied about the vote count for some unknowable reason. I pretty plainly said I'd be okay with lynching him today if I can't have Quick.
you said he's still lying and that you'd be OK with lynching him. I don't believe you ever said yesterday that you believed his reason given. Am I missing something?

Where is that LaL now @Blair?

BTW, some serious Déjà Vu going on in this game so far. I feel like people are going to think Blair is inno based on me pointing out the LaL thing was a lie.

Umlaut · Post Post #1127 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 8:16 am

hellbooks replaces Atarashi Hajimari.

VP Baltar · Post Post #1128 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 8:17 am

In post 1125, Blair wrote:
In post 1121, VP Baltar wrote:Is there reasoning beyond that I've missed?
I'm trying to avoid hiring a skywriter here.

Yeah, that's the basic premise.

If there is more nuance, I want to hear it.

P.edit: yo, hellbrooks, welcome.

Umlaut · Post Post #1129 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 8:18 am

Vote Count 2.3

ready2rock

(3): Gammagooey, mavsfan41, Quick

Gammagooey

(3): Blair, Dunnstral, ready2rock

Blair

(2): VP Baltar, votato

Not Voting

(3): CantLynchAPuppy, hellbooks, midwaybear

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-05-30 13:06:00)

Blair · Post Post #1130 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 8:25 am

In post 1096, Blair wrote:
In post 1094, VP Baltar wrote:you said he's still lying and that you'd be OK with lynching him. I don't believe you ever said yesterday that you believed his reason given. Am I missing something?
You're right, I never said I believed him yesterday.

I waffled back and forth a bit on whether or not I bought his excuse. I'm still waffling on it. It's not a verifiable thing. I was okay with testing it on Day 1, because zero information Day 1 lynches are historically risky, today I think we can do better though.

I'm not sure why Quick is pretending this doesn't exist.

When I believed R2R was lying, I was open to lynching him.

Now I am not sure if R2R was lying and would rather lynch Gamma.

In other news: Votato is openly manipulating Quick, and Quick usually notices things like that but hasn't pointed if out in this case.

Quick · Post Post #1131 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 8:31 am

In post 1130, Blair wrote:
In post 1096, Blair wrote:
In post 1094, VP Baltar wrote:you said he's still lying and that you'd be OK with lynching him. I don't believe you ever said yesterday that you believed his reason given. Am I missing something?
You're right, I never said I believed him yesterday.

I waffled back and forth a bit on whether or not I bought his excuse. I'm still waffling on it. It's not a verifiable thing. I was okay with testing it on Day 1, because zero information Day 1 lynches are historically risky, today I think we can do better though.
I'm not sure why Quick is pretending this doesn't exist.

When I believed R2R was lying, I was open to lynching him.

Now I am not sure if R2R was lying and would rather lynch Gamma.

In other news: Votato is openly manipulating Quick, and Quick usually notices things like that but hasn't pointed if out in this case.

This makes zero difference given:

In post 1002, Quick wrote:
In post 1000, Blair wrote:Which part do you disagree with?

And what agenda do you believe I have?

(Hint: My agenda is to lynch Gamma)
I thought your agenda was to "sort" Gamma. It's a lynch now? Why? I think your reasons for wanting to lynch there are bad and you'd be better off on the R2R wagon I think.

In post 1046, Quick wrote:
In post 1045, Blair wrote:
In post 1039, VP Baltar wrote:like why is she acknowledging r2r is prob scum and then pivoting to a Gamma case...huh?
There are really only two explanations:

1. Gamma is town; Blair is scum with Ready2Rock

2. Blair feels more confident in her Gamma read.

Occam's Razor might be prudent here.
R2R is a better push since it appears Gamma is the better player.

Blair · Post Post #1132 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 8:33 am

You're missing the forest for the trees.

VP Baltar · Post Post #1133 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 8:34 am

Blair, at what point did you reconsider your view of r2r's comment I made my original case on? Also, what do you think of his votes and contribution to this game?

Quick · Post Post #1134 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 8:34 am

In post 1132, Blair wrote:You're missing the forest for the trees.

Devils in the details, Blair.

Why is Gamma a better lynch than R2R when R2R was the off wagon?

Blair · Post Post #1135 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 8:45 am

In post 1133, VP Baltar wrote:Blair, at what point did you reconsider your view of r2r's comment I made my original case on? Also, what do you think of his votes and contribution to this game?

The beginning of Day 2 when I discovered it was more important to sort Gamma today.

Quick wrote:
In post 1132, Blair wrote:You're missing the forest for the trees.
Devils in the details, Blair.

Why is Gamma a better lynch than R2R when R2R was the off wagon?

I don't get this. Are you suggesting that there is something inherently optimal about lynching the runner-up after a mislynch?

Quick · Post Post #1136 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 8:52 am

In post 1135, Blair wrote:I don't get this. Are you suggesting that there is something inherently optimal about lynching the runner-up after a mislynch?

It means Scum may be on the NPOM wagon to save R2R, duh. Thus, flipping R2R because they have a decent shot at being Scum (since second tier wagons are often on Scum) and looking at the latish voters on the Town wagon get to be Sused a lot if the off wagon flips Scum the next day. (You are Scum in both cases given R2R flips Scum here.)

Like I said, you have it backwards. We don't lynch Gamma to sort R2R, we lynch R2R to sort the NPOM wagon. Else, you are assuming R2R is Town here.

Blair · Post Post #1137 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 8:57 am

I'm not voting for Gamma to sort R2R.

I'm voting for Gamma to sort Gamma.

Your belief that "second tier wagons are often scum" is unsubstantiated.

Quick · Post Post #1138 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 9:01 am

In post 1137, Blair wrote:I'm not voting for Gamma to sort R2R.

I'm voting for Gamma to sort Gamma.

Your belief that "second tier wagons are often scum" is unsubstantiated.

It's pretty common and you really

should

know off wagons are usually on Scum since you play on MU.

Blair · Post Post #1139 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 9:06 am

I am aware that people believe it.

I am not aware of evidence of statistical significance.

Quick · Post Post #1140 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 9:07 am

In post 1139, Blair wrote:I am aware that people believe it.

I am not aware of evidence of statistical significance.

Well, you are lying since you should have said that at first instead of as a defense second.

Blair · Post Post #1141 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 9:09 am

Oh look, that is exactly what I said:

In post 1137, Blair wrote:Your belief that "second tier wagons are often scum" is unsubstantiated.

Blair · Post Post #1142 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 9:10 am

Maybe you thought "unsubstantiated" meant "unpopular"?

But I doubt it.

ISO · Post Post #1143 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 9:10 am

In post 1128, VP Baltar wrote:P.edit: yo, hellbrooks, welcome.

hi! looks like i have some light reading. I will probably be ready to participate by tonight.

Blair · Post Post #1144 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 9:13 am

Greetings, hellbooks.

What manner of catch up can we expect from you? Are you a full-reader, a skimmer, or a highlighter (focuses on specific parts other players identify as relevant)?

votato · Post Post #1145 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 9:15 am

In post 1137, Blair wrote:I'm not voting for Gamma to sort R2R.

I'm voting for Gamma to sort Gamma.

Your belief that "second tier wagons are often scum" is unsubstantiated.

what do we gain from sorting gamma via lynch? it seems that thats a pretty bad information lynch. flipping r2r gives us a lot of information about the NPOM wagon. Flipping you gives us a lot of information too.

ISO · Post Post #1146 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 9:17 am

I'll read fully, but I think its counter productive to write out long responses to posts that happened dozens of pages ago. i'll let the early game inform my thoughts and probably give a small summary of what they are. but my attention will be focused on the here and now!

Blair · Post Post #1147 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 9:17 am

votato wrote:
In post 1137, Blair wrote:I'm not voting for Gamma to sort R2R.

I'm voting for Gamma to sort Gamma.

Your belief that "second tier wagons are often scum" is unsubstantiated.
what do we gain from sorting gamma via lynch? it seems that thats a pretty bad information lynch. flipping r2r gives us a lot of information about the NPOM wagon. Flipping you gives us a lot of information too.

Yeah, lynching me today would mean lynching Gamma tomorrow.

So let's skip that formality.

Quick · Post Post #1148 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 9:18 am

In post 1147, Blair wrote:
votato wrote:
In post 1137, Blair wrote:I'm not voting for Gamma to sort R2R.

I'm voting for Gamma to sort Gamma.

Your belief that "second tier wagons are often scum" is unsubstantiated.
what do we gain from sorting gamma via lynch? it seems that thats a pretty bad information lynch. flipping r2r gives us a lot of information about the NPOM wagon. Flipping you gives us a lot of information too.
Yeah, lynching me today would mean lynching Gamma tomorrow.

So let's skip that formality.

LOL. Unless you have a guilty on Gamma, just stop. Too much. You have too many sorts based on R2R flipping green and it's annoying.

Blair · Post Post #1149 (ISO) » Thu May 21, 2020 9:21 am

That is one of the most anti-town posts in this game.