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Post Post #1750 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:13 am

Post by bob3141 »

In post 1746, TheTrollie wrote:bob

come on

20% of someone being neighborized, but only 20% chance i target them. that means 4% of a cop result PLUS youd have to piece it together. its not like the next day I KNOW if it worked

ur just wrong
serously is that teh best you can come up with.

Odds stack

by day 2 you have 40% of turning into a full cop.

A FULL COP.

The odds of you still get a result to use night one and night 2 is.

17% night 1 , 20% night.


So by day 3 you have 33% chance of eitehr havign guilty or inno. 35% chance of being neigbourized.


so if neigbhourized by day 3. you have potential to get 3.5 results.

to be balanced you would need more gating. As the swing would be massive


And then scum woudl need pr enogh to make it worthless. which weakens all roles
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Post Post #1751 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:13 am

Post by bob3141 »

In post 1748, TheTrollie wrote:IM NOT A COP BOB

jesus
Then what do you beleive your role in this game was.?

Do you think town are given roles with no use.
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Post Post #1752 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:14 am

Post by bob3141 »

And even if we look at it at the area of the rolestopper. You have one function that rolestopper does other than cop.
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Post Post #1753 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:18 am

Post by bob3141 »

only use would be to stop masons neighbourizing sscum.

Which strengthens the masons so that still strong town pr.

when


Even ignoring the potential cop element. alike with how disloyal fruitvendors have been put in games before


It still leaves town stacked
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Post Post #1754 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:19 am

Post by bob3141 »

bambi in detail tell us why you flipped from trollie hard scum read to town read. After his claim
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Post Post #1755 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:20 am

Post by bob3141 »

trollie can you quote all of your crumbs
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Post Post #1756 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:24 am

Post by bob3141 »

And again explain in detail who you think the second scum is.
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Post Post #1757 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:34 am

Post by TheTrollie »

ok, so bob has lost it.

1) ur math is wrong:
there is a 1/12 chance I target someone N1.
There is a 2/11 chance that any 1 player got targeted by the neighborizer. but then I could have targeted the neighborizer so its really 2/12 N1 targets that would provide useful information later on in the game.

So that is 8% chance I target any one person and 16% chance that person was the target of the neighborizer night action.
= 1.3% chance that I target one of the two neighborizer targets

2) I AM NOT A COP
I DONT GET A RESULT
WHAT DONT YOU GET ABOUT THAT

mala...join this wagon?
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Post Post #1758 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:45 am

Post by TheTrollie »

and to answer ur question - idk who drews scum partner is - i just know he is scum
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Post Post #1759 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:53 am

Post by bob3141 »

Wrong trollie.

you have a 1/12 chance of targeting the player night 1 that bbmola visited
This happens twice

as its not 1/12 you targeting but 1/12 the mason targeting the player you choose

Your action has nothing to do with it. AS you are fixed variable.


And if one of the masons claimed day one you have amazing odds. with just a little bit of thought


You have failed to explain how you fit in the game.

Plus your canvasing for mala vote as if he is town. And your talking to me as if im town.


SO who is teh last scum and why?
And if germa is scum why are you so happy voting with him?
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Post Post #1760 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:53 am

Post by bob3141 »

In post 1758, TheTrollie wrote:and to answer ur question - idk who drews scum partner is - i just know he is scum
You hve not come up with second scum read in two game days?
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Post Post #1761 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:56 am

Post by bob3141 »

also trollie explain mav roleclaim if cat was scum?
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Post Post #1762 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:04 am

Post by bob3141 »

And trollie you missing teh fact were not comparing you to stright cop.

which would be worth 1.5 points.

you have the potential to get inno/guilites and stop mason neighbourizing scum.

2 functiosn from the same role and same action


even it being weak role would tipp teh game to beign too town sided
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Post Post #1763 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:49 am

Post by bob3141 »

In post 326, mavsfan41 wrote:@bob3141: I’m extremely confused by your post 297. Could you please clarify exactly what you’re saying? Specifically between your version of scum having to commit instead of sitting in the middle (post 260 for that language) vs Paragon’s more common definition of fence-sitting? My understanding of this is that you think Morning Tweet is town as she voted you back in 105 (vote is still there btw) where if she were scum she wouldn’t have voted you cause scum wouldn’t commit to voting you?
Do I have this correct? If not, could you please clarify.

From my perspective, her vote on you is NAI. With all due respect I think the premise on which you started pressuring her was very weak. Initially the first time you pressured her (prior doubling and tripling down) comes off as a scum-read on you for trying to jump start a wagon with little to no evidence. Scum could jump for a potential mislynch or town could jump on that reading you as scum for using a flimsy premise. The commitment as being a town tell vs scum being in the middle I think is most appropriately put into practice with you committing to your pressuring of Morning Tweet vs Morning Tweet voting you.

@Cat Scratch Fever: in 279, this is in hindsight. When bob3141 first pushed Morning Tweet rather than Dany, sure it wouldn’t be too far fetched to think Dany/bob as a scum pairing at the time, but as bob has committed more and more with a weak premise, I don’t think scum would make that gambit to put themselves in the spotlight like THAT. Inevitably a wagon started on bob3141 cause of his push.

@bob3141: what do you make of Morning Tweet’s Pi 314 post about the make up of your wagon vs 292 post? I tend to agree more with Morning Tweet, but boy, I really do get a town read from you and would find it difficult to think 4 townies jumped on that wagon. By the triple down on Morning Tweet (post 149 is where I would put this cutoff as that’s where I personally thought, scum! wouldn’t push THIS hard before giving up) and before your removal of her vote (post 178) is where I find you most town and if scum were to jump onto your wagon, here’s where they could.

This leaves Allomancer and Paragon within that timeframe. Idk what your cut-off in terms of vote count that you place on “wagon” but Allomancer is the 3rd vote and Paragon’s 4th vote could be the cutoff for wagon. If scum were on your wagon, here’s where I’d look. Any thoughts on either?

what does everyone read from this. in particular the @ at cat and me.

and would , and would , and would, and would ,and would, and would


read it again and again. Strikes me as mav talking of them as town. in other words he said - he would find difficulty believing that would jump on me.

And the crux of narrative that kept happing from mav. was that my wagon was all town. He was usign that fact to push it


ontop of that cat v mav interactions dont look like svt.
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Post Post #1764 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:52 am

Post by bob3141 »

if he was town i would of expect him to use words like

I find it hard to beleive
I find it unlikely
And i doubt


but he used "and would"

here he is using wording that implys from his pov that 4 townies voting me was past event. And not a potential unlikely occurance
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Post Post #1765 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:09 am

Post by TheTrollie »

i'm talking to mala because i have literally zero understanding of what you are thinking right now

u are making no sense to me.

If you actually want to discuss this, I would appreciate a single post with a tl;dr version of what your case is.
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Post Post #1766 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:00 am

Post by Malakittens »

In post 1724, Drew-Sta wrote:And here we go. If Mala votes Trollie, then she’s town. If Mala / bob votes me, then they hammer and confirm they’re scum.
Yeah I’m sorry

I just want this game over with.

It’s one last thing I have to come on and check daily and keep posting. ESP with me about to lose my day off starting next week.

VOTE: drew
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Post Post #1767 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:05 am

Post by Bambi Jay »

So Drew's at L-1, right?
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Post Post #1768 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:08 am

Post by TheTrollie »

i think that was a hammer no?
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Post Post #1769 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:41 am

Post by Malakittens »

He might be at L-1
No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.


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Post Post #1770 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:42 am

Post by bob3141 »

drew just hammered
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Post Post #1771 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:42 am

Post by bob3141 »

i mean mala
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Post Post #1772 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:46 am

Post by bob3141 »

trollie, bambi, germa , mala
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Post Post #1773 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:20 am

Post by geraintm »

So, 4 people left tomorrow. Is the plan to no lynch and get it down to a final 3? I think though scum will no kill then though hoping for a draw
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Post Post #1774 (ISO) » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:21 am

Post by geraintm »

As in a final 3 it will be very obvious who the scum.is.

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