Newbie 2004: Trash Panada Hour. Redux! GAME OVER

[Battle Mage]

Blair, you've been trying to subtly set me up as tomorrow's mislynch for like 4 pages now

Notice here how he knows there will be a "tomorrow" after Dunnstral's lynch.

Turns out he was sure about Dunnstral after all. Who knew?

My solve is sorta predicated on you bussing Dunnstral, so duh? But do feel free to keep trying.

[Blair]

Then vote for him.

Feel free to expound upon the many convincing reasons why Dunnstral and I would cross bus today, by the way. I'll wait.

[Blair]

(Do note, by the way, that he just admitted he was lying the two separate times he has said he wasn't sure about Dunn in the last handful of posts)

[Battle Mage]

because you know you need a mislynch tomorrow to justify bussing your partner today.

Here you are again knowing Dunnstral is scum.

Yet you keep claiming you're undecided.

Go ahead. Help me "bus my partner." We can deal with the next step after.

I've already said I'm not 100% sure, so no? And in fact, even you've said you're not 100% sure, so why you'd be making such a dumb play as town is anybody's guess. Although there must be at least 1 townie on that wagon. I guess this is a newbie game though so I should set the bar lower.

Besides, Aloratom is smarter than me - if he's town and thinks we should hammer, then we will anyway.

Just don't be embarrassed that I've caught you - it was really easy.

[Blair]

And in fact, even you've said you're not 100% sure

I eagerly await this quote.

[Blair]

You know, since it will accompanied by about a dozen times that I have, in fact, stated I am 100% sure Dunnstral is scum.

You know, because he claimed he tracked me to Aloratom. When I am a VT.

Read the thread next time.

[Blair]

Just a few of the many posts in which I have indicated I am sure Dunnstral is scum:

Spoiler:

OK, so obviously I misinterpreted what the jailkeeper was doing, because that makes no sense

It doesn't actually matter if it was true or not (it wasn't, as even you attest now)

What matters is that you claimed you believed it was true while simultaneously claiming you received no result that night.

No one who received No Result would believe that.

The follow up to that is: If Dunnstral were telling the truth, really was the Tracker, and really did receive "No Result" on Night 1, Dunnstral never would have believed that the Jailkeeper targeted the Rolecop, because he would know that was impossible.

Dunnstral claims to believe that Aloratom is the Jailkeeper, crumbled that they jailed Blair, and Blair roleblocked him, causing him to receive no result Night 1.

This is impossible.

Dunnstral claims it is possible because whenever the two roles conflict, Roleblocker resolves first. But the two roles aren't conflicting unless we target each other, which he is claiming did not occur.

I'll just leave you with this.

Mafia Roleblocker

action takes precedence over a

Town Jailkeeper

action should that apply.

"Should that apply."

Nauci is actually right. Natural Action Resolution, and all other forms of night action order resolution, only apply in situations where two roles target each other or otherwise conflict.

So Roleblocker would resolve before Jailkeeper

if the Roleblocker and Jailkeeper target each other.

Not every single time a Roleblocker is jailed.

Dunnstral is essentially suggesting that Roleblockers are

immune

to Jailkeepers (because their action would always resolve first, no matter who they target).

I'm about 99% positive Roleblockers are not immune to Jailkeepers, so Dunnstral is lying here.

Nicely caught, Nauci.

I still oppose a mass claim. I have yet to see from anyone the logic behind doing so.

The logic:

1. Everyone knows 100% there is scum between Blair/Dunnstral

2. This means town has a 50% shot at nailing scum by lynching between those two players. Waiting until tomorrow does not improve those odds.

3. Lynching between those two players today means that the non-Blair/Dunn players (i.e. the players deciding the lynch, since Dunn and I are voting each other) are 75% town. If we wait until tomorrow, the players deciding the lynch are only 67% town.

4. The more townies we have deciding this lynch, the better.

5. We have no mislynches left, so we need to make this count.

The fact that Dunn outright states he was gunning for me to claim before him and BM had already moved me up the list is interesting.

Interesting how? Isn't that NAI? Like, if Dunn isn't lying, that's exactly the order he'd want to catch you in a lie? A maneuver that you yourself are absolutely expert at? And BM would do that as scum but would also do that as town who scumreads you?

You're misinterpreting me here (check the context).

I wasn't suggesting that the correlation made Dunnstral more likely to be scum (I already know Dunnstral is scum, he cannot be more than 100% likely from my perspective). I was suggesting that Battle Mage was more likely to be his partner, since Battle Mage reorganized his preferred claim order to move me from near the bottom to second-from-the-top

before

Dunnstral claimed and made it clear that I should claim next. I'm suggesting it appears coordinated.

@Nauci I notoriously hate this Newbie setup (I say as much every time it comes up) and I very publicly fumbled the setup analysis in that game you referenced. (Although my Day 1 wagon analysis was 100% accurate!)

So yes, you really did just witness me assessing the setup and trying to suss out which sub-setup we're in. I'm actually pretty proud of the fact that I was able to identify it based off of one fake claim with no flipped PRs.

As for your point that Dunn would know (if he weren't lying scum) about the Jailkeeper due to receiving no result, I guess so but scum could have no killed so you don't technically know that in that scenario.

More importantly, I think it's worth mentioning here that A) I was not operating from the mindset of actually believing Dunnstral in the first place and B) Dunnstral didn't even use this super obvious explanation himself when responding to that very question.

Genuine scumslips are so rare nowadays - this is exciting!

Now that I'm realizing that, this is interesting:

My slot targeted Formerfish night 1 - Received no result (implying a roleblocker or jailkeeper -> there has to be a jailkeeper because someone stopped a kill and it wasn't me)

It never occurred to Dunnstral that there could be a Doctor in the setup, because it never occurred to him that we could be in B3.

Because he's known we weren't in that column since Day 2.

You'd still be confirmed scum to me, silly, but there isn't a power role in that setup that can know for sure that you're lying.

No, Nauci, I'm town because Dunnstral tracked a VT.

I'm just pointing out, in addition to that, there is no scenario in which scum!Blair doesn't try to take another PR down with me here.

VOTE: Dunnstral

I'm a VT genius. Read the thread next time before you fake claim.

[Blair]

You forgot this again, by the way:

Feel free to expound upon the many convincing reasons why Dunnstral and I would cross bus today, by the way. I'll wait.

[Blair]

(Hint: He doesn't have any, he's just trying to manipulate Nauci's paranoia, since she speculated about this first)

[Dunnstral]

This is getting real tiresome, I'll make the vote everybody is thinking about making:

VOTE: Dunnstral

Wp Blair! I bet you won't find my partner though, he's hiding behind at least 3 layers of wifom (1 of which should hit pretty close to home )

First person to hammer Dunnstral is town cleared. This offer also extends to Dunnstral.

Ay I did it, can I save my town clear for the next time we play together?

[Nauci]

Blair, you've been trying to subtly set me up as tomorrow's mislynch for like 4 pages now

Notice here how he knows there will be a "tomorrow" after Dunnstral's lynch.

Turns out he was sure about Dunnstral after all. Who knew?

I don't fucking understand why he wouldn't hammer if he's either sure that Dunnstral is scum or he's sure that Dunnstral is scum

[Nauci]

This is getting real tiresome, I'll make the vote everybody is thinking about making:

VOTE: Dunnstral

Wp Blair! I bet you won't find my partner though, he's hiding behind at least 3 layers of wifom (1 of which should hit pretty close to home )

First person to hammer Dunnstral is town cleared. This offer also extends to Dunnstral.

Ay I did it, can I save my town clear for the next time we play together?

Dunnstral are you a Not_Mafia alt

[Elmo TeH AzN]

OH look a lynch. Flip when I get home. I hate my job sometimes.

[Elmo TeH AzN]

Votecount 3.04

Dunnstral (4)

- Blair(Freddietheladie), Nauci, Tuxedo Mask, Dunnstral (Lilith2013),

Not Voting (2) -

Aloratom (Votato) Battle Mage (Formerfish),

With 6 players alive it takes 4 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2020-06-11 08:15:00)

[Elmo TeH AzN]

Dunnstral Was Lynched Day 3a! They were a

Mafia Goon

!


Actions due in: (expired on 2020-06-07 09:00:00)

[Elmo TeH AzN]

Aloratom (Votato) A

Vanilla Townie

Was Bitten By A Trash Panda Night 3.

[Elmo TeH AzN]

Votecount 3.04

Not Voting (4) -

Blair(Freddietheladie), Nauci, Tuxedo Mask, Battle Mage (Formerfish),

With 4 players alive it takes 3 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2020-06-14 09:00:00)

[Tuxedo Mask]

We should probably no lynch, right?

[Battle Mage]

yeah No Lynch has to be the play, and massclaim of course (same as yesterday!).

Blair is scum though, I'm fairly confident of that.

[Battle Mage]

massclaim first, then we decide about No-Lynch vs Lynch, is strictly speaking STILL the right play.

[Battle Mage]

If anybody had any doubt, Dunnstral's parting words SCREAM Blair-scum.

[Blair]

We should probably no lynch, right?

The answer is... it depends.

If we lynch today:

3 Townies
1 Scum

Pros:

Scum can't quickhammer and win the game as soon as one Townie votes for another Townie. Two Townies have to vote wrong (together) for Scum to quickhammer and win.

Cons:

Each Townie has three potential suspects, meaning a random vote has only a 33% chance of hitting scum.

If we No Lynch today and lynch tomorrow:

2 Townies
1 Scum

Pros:

Each Townie has only two potential suspects, meaning a random vote has a 50% chance of hitting scum.

Cons:

Scum can quickhammer and win as soon as just one Townie votes for another Townie.

---

In my opinion, we should mass claim today and then decide.

Why? Because the cons of lynching today only apply if we are voting "randomly." If the mass claim gives us enough information to lynch non-randomly, then we should lynch today, while we have more townies and it is harder for scum to steal the win.

If the mass claim doesn't reveal anything to us and our lynch still feels effectively random, then we should no lynch and put it off until tomorrow, when our odds for a random scum lynch are better.

I've already claimed, so I nominate my top scumread to claim next:

Battle Mage

[Battle Mage]

Given you're probably the only scum left, I'm fine with that. I'm vanilla town.

[Blair]

(I'll support everyone claiming as soon as the previous claim has nominated them, but let the record show my preferred claim order is: Battle Mage, Nauci, Tuxedo)

[Battle Mage]

with respect, I do ask that fellow players take everything Blair says today on game strategy with a pinch of salt. I'm very happy if you treat me in the same regard.

Let Nauci call the play I think.