Mini Normal 2141: The World of Tomorrow [Game over!]

[Umlaut]

Vote Count 5.2

VP Baltar

(1): votato

votato

(1): mavsfan41

Not Voting

(3): ready2rock, hellbooks, VP Baltar

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-06-20 16:11:00)

[ready2rock]

hellbooks, you are today's inevitable lynch.

i literally love the vibe evoked here, it's like "hellbooks, you are today's 100th caller." congratulations, the prize is We will Come to your House and Punch You

Also this feels very much like trying to push a quick mislynch as well, especially since you knew that I was scumreading and voting hellbooks yesterday

[ready2rock]

Pedit: Hellbrooks and I were in the middle of a convo yesterday, Mavs, and I think it is probably fair for me to give her a chance to continue today. Much like yesterday, I don't see a need to rush a wagon. Yesterday proved that we can put the info out there and still make the right call. Had I rushed my vote yesterday, I can almost guarantee Dunn would have self hammered to end the day sooner, don't you think?

Compared to this, which comes across as town interested in getting it right and listen to as much information as possible

[ready2rock]

Probably should be closer to this:

Hellbooks, VP, R2R
Puppy, votato, Dunn
mav

why are hellbooks and r2r so high up? why is mav so far down?

nope. i didnt turn against VP. i asked quick a question. i still TR VP (ish). the movement on my read is in the general towards towny direction. not sure what youre reading, but it isnt my post. and i've been pushing for the same wagon since yesterday. i want a wagon on midway. im really not changing at all. but i suppose i could go for a dunnstral wagon.

VP Baltar seems to me to be setting up to lay down a Dunn vote but wants to be more careful about it plus it feels like he's letting the quick hammer argument (which I don't find compelling at all) completely redirect him from his gameview yesterday which seemed to be that me and midway were the scummiest people (and now there's not a mention of me) + has not really posted anything to escape my POE pool for a full day phase

Dunn+hellbrooks is a very real possibility. Putting it out there now.

the fact that you're just now realizing that makes me think theyre both town and that you're the real scum. but maybe i should stop being paranoid.

VP gets to be town for now, even if that post was a steaming pile of shi - shih tzus

Pictured: votato scumreading VP since Day 1

(disclaimer, there have been times where votato has scumread/voted VP, but the point being that it certainly hasn't been the consistent stance since day 1 like he's claiming)

And if you think that's a weak and unfair argument (which it is probably a bit nitpicky), there's this speculation later:

assume for a minute dunn is scum. His buddy probably wants to be on a counterwagon, but they probably dont want to be on the same wagon because it looks like dunn is the lynch. that means scum dunn probably means scum VP, yes? im still thinking the likely scumpairs are [dunn, vp] or [hellbooks, puppy], and im not sure where i would put mav in that mix. hellbooks and mav: why arent you voting at all? dunn, why are you on a vanity wagon? r2r, why books over dunn?

And yet when dunn flips scum and puppy is killed, it still logically makes the most sense for hellbooks lynch to be "inevitable" by your logic and to throw out the window this scumread on VP that you've supposedly always had? Doesn't feel at all natural.

Not gonna vote yet because I'm interested in hearing what hellbooks has to say, but I'm feeling better about this

[votato]

im still waiting on VP's thing and decision about where to place his vote and then ill say my thing.

[VP Baltar]

im still waiting on VP's thing and decision about where to place his vote and then ill say my thing.

Both r2r and I have asked you specific questions. Answer them.

[votato]

im happy to. but im waiting to see how you respond. i dont want to poison the well here, your next content post is going to have significant bearing on what i have to say. i'd be happy to write down my reads on a piece of paper and then show you the piece of paper after you present your reads. its pretty obvious what you're doing here. but i kinda have to let you do it before i narrate, or you'll change your tune.

[VP Baltar]

We aren't having some kind of stand off here. I asked you questions specifically about your positions stated in this thread and your thoughts on setup. I've done some rereading, and I'm still not certain between you and Mavs. I'm asking questions to help decide what is likely my last vote of the day. This song and dance is not points in your favor. So...pretty please...just answer the questions.

[mavsfan41]

Look, I’ll break it down like this:
R2R claimed tracker. I buy this claim as he ONLY did it to clear hellbooks. Sure he could fake claim here, but due to the lack of PRs, this makes sense. Also, scum!R2R is better of just letting hellbooks get lynched. It makes NO sense for him to fake claim tracker here.

Since R2R/hellbooks are cleared, the final scum is down to VP, votato, and me. We’re the only ones not cleared. I don’t quite understand the debate you guys are having. Your options are the other two. If there is a mislynch today (and it’s not me), whichever one survives is going to try super hard to lynch me as that is your only option. So for scum to win, you’re going to hafta mislynch me. Both backing off now doesn’t bode well for scum tomorrow regardless of what happens here as eventually you going to reach the “conclusion” that I’m scum to get me lynched. You either get me lynched (but somehow would arrive at that conclusion now reading your other option as less scum) today or you achieve a mislynch then hafta convince hellbooks tomorrow to vote with you to lynch me. Those are your only options right now.

With that being said, votato’s 2296 looks ridiculous. I get what you’re saying, but scum!votato also needs two mislynches to win and that’s what someone who needs two mislynches to win would say. Also, you haven’t really presented a case on me.

[votato]

Look, I’ll break it down like this:
R2R claimed tracker. I buy this claim as he ONLY did it to clear hellbooks. Sure he could fake claim here, but due to the lack of PRs, this makes sense. Also, scum!R2R is better of just letting hellbooks get lynched. It makes NO sense for him to fake claim tracker here.

Since R2R/hellbooks are cleared, the final scum is down to VP, votato, and me. We’re the only ones not cleared. I don’t quite understand the debate you guys are having. Your options are the other two. If there is a mislynch today (and it’s not me), whichever one survives is going to try super hard to lynch me as that is your only option. So for scum to win, you’re going to hafta mislynch me. Both backing off now doesn’t bode well for scum tomorrow regardless of what happens here as eventually you going to reach the “conclusion” that I’m scum to get me lynched. You either get me lynched (but somehow would arrive at that conclusion now reading your other option as less scum) today or you achieve a mislynch then hafta convince hellbooks tomorrow to vote with you to lynch me. Those are your only options right now.

With that being said, votato’s 2296 looks ridiculous. I get what you’re saying, but scum!votato also needs two mislynches to win and that’s what someone who needs two mislynches to win would say. Also, you haven’t really presented a case on me.

i havent presented a case on you because I townread you the whole game. I just have been unable to swallow your role/claim. And at this point I'm almost willing to lynch you purely based on that. FMPOV its 50/50 and it'll be really humiliating if you win based on that fake claim.

The reason I wanted VP to explain his thoughts is that it seemed strongly like he was voting mav because mav was the way the wind was blowing. mav voted me, and I backed off mav a bit. immediately, VP unvotes and "re-evaluates". I was thinking if the three suspects cross-voted (triangle-voted?) it would be nice because the ICs could decide the lynch. but theres far less pressure on mav, and now VP is reconsidering, or pretending to. he wants to wait to see what i have to say and what people's reactions are so he can go for the mislynch that suits him the best. it wasnt a surprise at all that VP unvoted - not because of his own progressions, but because of the progressions of the other people in the lobby. VP followed onto mav, and once other people expressed doubt, VP started expressing doubt. his next move is to vote me.

[votato]

oh and VOTE: VP

[hellbooks]

Last and most important, setup wise it doesn't make sense for there to be THREE investigative roles unless the scum have some kind of super powers we have not seen this game. The fact that they weren't killing power roles left and right makes me think that is not the case (ie, some type of role cop or something to compensate for three investigators).

definitely something I'm thinking right now\

I really don’t know between votato/VP. You’re both voting me and one of you guys is scum and one is town being duped....

earlier you said votato was clear from dunn push
+ re: you saying you can't generate guilties. There's really little reason for scum to lie about getting fruit if they don't suspect disloyal bc if they perceive you as a regular fruit vendor then saying they didn't get fruit would enter them into a 1v1 between them and you.

I'll be honest here, I do see a scenario where you are some type of scum fruit vendor and town PRs receive fruit.

had this thought but I don't see this being a normal role?

im so fuckin thankful for R2R. unlikely allies born from a mutual suspicion... what a beautiful story. you better be town. anyway gonna go reread D4.

[hellbooks]

oh thats L-2. ok I'm gonna leave the vote, because i have faith in you all. and because its very unlikely that scum will come in and quickhammer here considering I am already hard bussing and cant double-vote.

cheeky af if scum

As far as I’m concerned, I’ll like vote Puppy/Dunn and see what happens after a flip....

feels like someone gauging where the wind blows to see if they can squeeze out a Puppy ML

This does actually read like you're defending Dunn a bit ngl

motivation for votato to kill puppy (his solve being a potential dunn / votato)

Someone give me a Dunn case outside of the hammer. Sure, they look sketchy af, but WIFOM, scum wouldn’t do that twice cause they know how sketchy it is. His progression to midway was bs. I’ll agree with that. His progression day 3 from votato to puppy I think is fair. I’ll hafta look through him in way more detail, but if you make the claim that Dunn is scum, then his vote on Gamma was an early bus to gain town-cred. His 1175 appears fishing for town-cred. I still believe Occam’s razor is that scum!Dunn wouldn’t actually bus his scum mate there.

uh oh!

Maybe quick was onto something when he said it was one of Votato/Vp Baltar

is this mavs being presented to us on a silver platter... seems too clean lol

i feel like we kinda have to lynch dunn today in the end

dunn's partner would probably be *thinking* this but dunn's partner would probably not be *saying* this

I kind of had some wifom thoughts like that but I decided to trust my gut and my VCA and not overthink it when I've got way bigger scumreads

motivation for VP to not kill puppy

^ tl;dr version -- "hi, I'm scum and I don't like people pointing that out. I'll make a drawn out process of arriving at Dunn scum soon!"

VP baltar and I, now the best of friends, nostalgically looking back at old photos of us yelling at each other

Because Dunn could just self hammer then, thus ending the day and giving you a better chance of escaping.

Nice try to goad me into that though.

i guess i'll be watching closely to see if there's a clear reason for VP to hammer when he did, since he really didn't want the day to end early

[mavsfan41]

@votato: humiliating letting me win as scum based on that claim? What I’m looking at right now is two players who claimed VT (a very very easy claim for scum to make that in fact, Dunn has done it) and one of you is NOW doing. That makes more sense for a claim.

Let me try again to break things down for you.....
Disloyal fruit vendor would be a fake claim. I couldn’t possibly be scum as a disloyal fruit vendor trying to get an extremely soft unreliable guilty on someone if I was scum and knew who was town and who was scum. -> this means that I fake claimed disloyal fruit vendor for you to say I’m scum. Since scum’s case to inevitably get me mislynched you need to argue I fake claimed.

If I’m fake claiming disloyal fruit vendor, that’s one super elaborate fake claim. It also makes me very susceptible to a tracker with that type of claim, and that I would be targeting players I think are scum (aka I’m unlikely to visit the NK) so I wouldn’t be targeting the NK (in fact, I haven’t this entire game) possibly giving a false positive of a night investigation from the tracker. Granted, at that time the tracker had yet to come to light but one of watcher/tracker had to be present or my role would basically be extremely unreliable and ultimately useless without any confirmation from the mod or another player corroborating who I visited.

[hellbooks]

Okay, so I’m super torn between hellbooks and puppy. Dunn has been scummy, but see my argument why I think he’s not actually scum. I l’m concerned right now with hellbooks amassing votes cause she does seem like low hanging fruit. And before y’all blast me for the terminology, midway was basically the same thing. And at least a few townies voted that.

draw your own conclusions from this

To be clear hellbrooks: I am not frustrated with you. This is a game played online and I think you're a very nice person for potentially worrying about upsetting people. I would never take a game so seriously as to be mad at you or anyone else over it.

beginning of our friendship arc

just as im starting to have some doubts about dunn he comes and reassures me that he really is the best lynch for today.

lol.... if votato is scum he is pulling off some pretty slick interactions

@Dunn: dude, you gotta give me more than that? Who is Puppy’s partner? You had votato/Puppy not that long ago. So now you’re on Puppy? What is your read on votato? Why hammer midway if 1) he’s extremely unlikely to be partnered with votato and 2) you’ve previously never really suspected him and didn’t previously suggest a Puppy/midway pairing? Look, I tried to get Puppy lynched yesterday. Both Puppy and midway were at 3 a piece then votato and eventually you jumped to midway for the lynch.

idk does scum press for information from a partner when they draw the conclusion that their lynch is inevitable? (mavs switched to dunn just a few posts before this)

admit i was surprised to read this and then find a dunn vote at the end

^ possibly points to an awkward pivot then

I think I’m alive over Quick either cause scum!Puppy didn’t want to kill me and have everyone swarm on him OR cause scum!Dunn knew getting me to lynch Puppy with him was almost assured. Quick was such mislynch fodder that VP & myself had voted him. Votato I think would’ve as well. He was all over the place and had lead lynched on NPOM, resisted the Gamma lynch forever, and was a major reason midway was lynched. Why he was NK’ed is beyond me. NKA is useless and very subject to WIFOM but I’d be lying if I didn’t say it played some factor in my turn on Dunn.

oh jeez. this seems towny

[hellbooks]

I don't think there's a normal queue role that checks to see if somebody has fruit - so you're overthinking with Votato

Don't you think you should have asked me/midway to claim whether we had ever gotten fruit before revealing your full hand?

You claim to have sent me disloyal fruit... which is kind of like an investigation result; why didn't you ask me if I received it at some point?

I see you saying grapes here though, which looks like another soft. Or was that you trying to get my attention?

feels like implicates mavs town
but -- then what the fuck is this setup

[hellbooks]

i might acquiesce to R2R because he's had a better track record so far and is gonna die tonight but
happy to talk it out. dunnstral could definitely be bussing votato, he was perfectly capable of bussing gamma

[ready2rock]

Votato, if you've been townreading mavs all game, can you explain why you suddenly were the one who put an intent to hammer on him, and then refused to claim when asked if you were just VT? Also can you address the other questions/cases that have been posted that you promised you'd answer and then haven't?

Also votato putting "been scumreading someone all game" and "been townreading them all game, but the role feels a bit off to me" as 50/50 feels super scummy to me. Not only that, but his first instinct after my claim is to vote the townread???

@hellbooks: I don't know about better record, as you puppy and midway were scumreads for me for quite a bit of this game. Do I understand your ranking to be mavs, then votato, then VP from scummiest to not?

@mavs: Thoughts on VP at this point?

[ready2rock]

And now some musings about why I'm inclined to believe the mavs claim:

I am curious what this other scum role is if mavs claim is true, but I still think both the way he crumbed the role and the timing (there was almost no pressure/votes on him at the time he was crumbing, so there wasn't reason to think he was in danger of having to claim) leads me to believe it.

Other questions on the mavs claim to think about if he's making it up:
Why would he claim something that strange and verifiable by a PR while at L-1 with intent to hammer?
Dunn clearly had a play for claiming that mavs has admitted would've been better. If that's the case, why didn't Dunn discuss and advise this with mavs in the thread?
If the scumteam thought there was some kind of fruit checker in the game, as mavs clearly did, why did he pin fruit on his scumbuddy that he thought was clear?

Time to play another game of "hypothetical scum chat"

mavs: OK so here's the plan everyone, I'm going to crumb disloyal fruit vendor

Dunn: Doesn't that feel super scummy and unverifiable?

mavs: Oh don't worry, I think votato's a fruit checker, so he'll be able to get a confirmed guilty on you even though you have no suspicion on you right now! Then it's just 3 mislynches away from me solo carrying us to victory!

Dunn: .........

[votato]

And now some musings about why I'm inclined to believe the mavs claim:

I am curious what this other scum role is if mavs claim is true, but I still think both the way he crumbed the role and the timing (there was almost no pressure/votes on him at the time he was crumbing, so there wasn't reason to think he was in danger of having to claim) leads me to believe it.

Other questions on the mavs claim to think about if he's making it up:
Why would he claim something that strange and verifiable by a PR while at L-1 with intent to hammer?
Dunn clearly had a play for claiming that mavs has admitted would've been better. If that's the case, why didn't Dunn discuss and advise this with mavs in the thread?
If the scumteam thought there was some kind of fruit checker in the game, as mavs clearly did, why did he pin fruit on his scumbuddy that he thought was clear?

Time to play another game of "hypothetical scum chat"

mavs: OK so here's the plan everyone, I'm going to crumb disloyal fruit vendor

Dunn: Doesn't that feel super scummy and unverifiable?

mavs: Oh don't worry, I think votato's a fruit checker, so he'll be able to get a confirmed guilty on you even though you have no suspicion on you right now! Then it's just 3 mislynches away from me solo carrying us to victory!

Dunn: .........

yeah exactly. mav kinda has to be town.

[votato]

Votato, if you've been townreading mavs all game, can you explain why you suddenly were the one who put an intent to hammer on him, and then refused to claim when asked if you were just VT? Also can you address the other questions/cases that have been posted that you promised you'd answer and then haven't?

Also votato putting "been scumreading someone all game" and "been townreading them all game, but the role feels a bit off to me" as 50/50 feels super scummy to me. Not only that, but his first instinct after my claim is to vote the townread???

@hellbooks: I don't know about better record, as you puppy and midway were scumreads for me for quite a bit of this game. Do I understand your ranking to be mavs, then votato, then VP from scummiest to not?

@mavs: Thoughts on VP at this point?

all my day 2 reads were really skewed because people had strange progressions stemming from nigh action results. and yeah, i've kinda waffled over the days. but if you look at my scum meta (see micro 938: butterfly mafia in particular, you could look at animals upick but i dunno how much youd learn), i dont really waffle or re-evaluate. i might take my time deciding where to push, but then i push it and stick to my guns. why is it scummy to reconsider?

at this point, im ok with lynching VP today and me tomorrow. i think that gives us 90% chance of the win today. If you feel like you need to lynch me first thats ok i suppose, but it feels really awkward to just let myself be lynched in case R2R is deepwolfing or mav's claim really is fake.

[VP Baltar]

R2R claimed tracker. I buy this claim as he ONLY did it to clear hellbooks. Sure he could fake claim here, but due to the lack of PRs, this makes sense. Also, scum!R2R is better of just letting hellbooks get lynched. It makes NO sense for him to fake claim tracker here.

Yeah, I don't think there's any reason to doubt his claim. I mean, if Gamma went after him like that AND he faked a tracking on a townie...that's some genius level scum play and they deserve to win.

i havent presented a case on you because I townread you the whole game. I just have been unable to swallow your role/claim. And at this point I'm almost willing to lynch you purely based on that.

I don't care for this honestly. Looking at your iso, I definitely don't get strong town read vibes on mavs -- more like ambivalent, with some shade over the claim tossed in occasionally. I mean, if you think he is town, then it would make sense to believe the claim. That is where I was at all game. I think it only sort of makes sense now to question that assumption of a town read when the scum pool is very limited. I also think the last sentence here is keeping the door open if you can't get the momentum on me you want. To some degree, I get that if you were town because the logical assumption is it has to be one of us. But I also I don't see a town player being like 'well, whatevs'. It seems like with just a little bit of thought we can make the right choice today and not have to value lynches A & B as a coin flip.

mav voted me, and I backed off mav a bit. immediately, VP unvotes and "re-evaluates".

Nope. I was posting already and you posted while I was posting. Me having second thoughts on mavs had nothing to do with you. Don't try to twist facts. That was very clear in my unvote post because I marked it as a p.edit when I responded to you.

Post in question here:

UNVOTE: mavs
I'm thinking, but also at work and will be busy this afternoon. I need more time to think this through completely. I still don't know if Mavs role works setup wise, but I'm not 100% I'm right there.

Pedit - The still alive argument doesn't make sense, and definitely one I'd expect scum to make. I've been on everyone's scum list at one point or another because I've been active and pushing hard on people when I think they are scum. I personally think I'm ideal mislynch bait in LyLo, and there is no way I'd be a preferred nightkill over more confirmed towns like puppy or r2r.

oh and VOTE: VP

You...were already voting me. Are you even paying attention to what you're saying today?

had this thought but I don't see this being a normal role?

I actually had to look up the normal rules when he claimed because I was very confused. It seemed to me like any role that doesn't have misinformation or a third party is considered normal. I have never played with a fruit vendor before. Very bizarre.

VP baltar and I, now the best of friends, nostalgically looking back at old photos of us yelling at each other

lol

at this point, im ok with lynching VP today and me tomorrow.

This is absolutely silly. I can't imagine a scenario where I as town would ever say "give me this one today, and then if it's wrong we can just lynch townie ol' me tomorrow in Lylo". Like, what?

Anyhow, here is where I'm at.

I think there is a mountain of complexity in mavs claim, and while unprovable, would be quite elaborate as a fake. Like, that's some quality counterfeiting operation stuff. The setup balance with the claim definitely gives me pause, because it seems like town OP with the scum power roles we have seen so far. There is still one unknown variable, and that's whatever the last scum role is.

BUT

I think I need to trust my instincts here, and I've been reading mavs town since he claimed. That only leaves votato. It's pretty simple process of elimination and it's got to be him.

VOTE: votato

[mavsfan41]

@R2R: after my push on VP day 1, I generally had him as a town read. Him emerging as town leader come day 3 has given me no reason to doubt him. But at this point, I’ve had a SR on basically everyone this game. Pretty sure I’ve voted everyone in a somewhat serious manner at one point or another except Gamma and Blair IIRC (but I strongly suggested a Blair/R2R/Dunn solve).

The only things I would say about VP is that on both scum lynches, he voted in a traditional bus’ing position. His Dunn hammer was quick as if he was trying to end the day ASAP at L-1. Also, the night kills make more sense for VP to make than votato (especially the Quick kill which remains the most mysterious of the entire game).

VP did the hard push on R2R day 1 and day 2. I don’t believe scum goes HAM like that knowing it’s a mislynch.

Votato has been pretty consistent on using meta in his reads. His case on Atarashi and midway was meta. He has even suggested using his own meta to support himself. However, votato’s progression onto wagons that resulted in mislynches is weak sauce. He did death tunnel midway, so that was fine, but him being swayed off that despite being so adamant midway was scum just read as scummy. Reading it, it’s very reminiscent of what Dunn did where he wanted a Puppy/votato lynch (but pushed Puppy waaaay more even though it was pretty apparently Puppy/votato weren’t scum together) then settled for midway out of the blue. Votato scum would also mean 2 scum were on the NPOM lynch and I do have an extremely hard time believing 6 townies and 1 Dunn hammer got NPOM lynched.

Tl;dr -> I’m seriously reading Dunn’s votato/Puppy solve (which imo is ridiculous based on day 1) as Dunn going out of his way to distance himself and votato. There’s absolutely no other reason to have a Puppy/votato solve.

Side note (if votato is scum): @Puppy: for two days I tried to get you lynched...... you nailed votato day 1 and nailed Dunn.... my bad.

[Umlaut]

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[Umlaut]

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