Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[Menalque]

*thonk*

what was this thonk for/about?

S_S’s posting at L-1

[Menalque]

idk voting people seems to push people to do things that make them easier to read?

Do you think this is likely to work on bingle?

[Menalque]

I just don’t think pushing at bingle with votes is any more likely to make him do something strongly AI than doing the same to you

[Datisi]

*thonk*

what was this thonk for/about?

S_S’s posting at L-1

was that what caused you to townread him or?

[Menalque]

Put simply, do you think that this:

Spoiler:

Okay so first of all I want to apologize to the game. Regardless of what Menalque says is or isn't plausible, my enjoyment of a game can actually be killed pretty easily, and I've actually had pretty much no wim for the entirety of D2.

The gamestate as a whole I think quite frankly has not at any point in the game been healthy. Gobble and lilith and I were all pushed pretty much entirely for being low-hanging fruit. Menalque's case on me is riddled with assumptions, generalizations, and just poor critical thinking in general. In a vacuum I would say it's scummy but I do think everything else about the way he's handled this game is extremely genuine.

The case on lilith is similarly tenuous, and while I almost certainly should be voting my counterwagon here, I'm not sure that it would actually be better for the game if she got lynched. If she's scum, she's probably being bussed or I'd be long since dead, but if she flipped the attention would probably go to my wagon.

Anyway. I definitely don't have a read on everybody. Some people have just slipped by my radar time after time, and some people I've paid attention to but wouldn't trust myself to read at this point in the game.

Skitter is town, because she doesn't have suicidal tendencies.

Menalque is town. He's extremely interactive, and every move is pushing the game closer to potentially being solved.

PP is leantown. His posting today has been pretty dynamic and it seems like he really does care about how things go down. When I've seen him as scum (at least Alisae v. Pine but there may have been others I'm forgetting) he faded into the background, pretty much always.

A50 is leantown. Very hard one to explain. I feel like with all his "I might not be the hider, but IF I AM..." bullshit, he's genuine reveling in trying to troll scum and not worrying about looking weird.

Maria and Blake are null. I know better than to think I can get a handle on these two very crafty players when I'm not invested in the game.

Firebringer and Datisi are null. I don't think I can recall a single thing of relevance either one has done aside from voting me.

Lilith is null. I can't in good faith extricate my read on her from my colored view of the gamestate, and I can understand how this gamestate came about with her as either alignment. Her early posting was towny. Her later posting wasn't. I want to give her the benefit of the doubt and say that she could be town shutting down under pressure, because I've been known to do that and she hasn't played town much since coming back. But I can't commit to a read on her.

Bingle is a scumlean. I know it's stale, but it's the only scum lead I have and it's better than nothing. It feels like he's trying to control the gamestate while keeping his distance. He jumped on my wagon earlier citing skitter's dubious reasoning and wouldn't engage me on it; he's challenged my mechanics but doesn't seem interested in talking it out. In other words, he's distant, and doesn't really seem to be engaging.

ss part of why i was scumreading you this game is that you went after the low-hanging fruit in gobbles at just the times i thought scum would, at just the times i thought it was p obvious his actions didn't come from groupscum

Even though he wasn't groupscum, I disagree that that was obvious. The political aspect of the SK makes claiming SK definitely something that scum would consider doing to save their skin, and gobble is definitely the type of player who would consider fakeclaiming SK as scum (as evidenced by the fact that he did the even weirder play of claiming it as TOWN).

The timing of the retraction was when it seemed to be a foregone conclusion among most people that he was gonna be the lynch but they were going to scumhunt for a while first, which is pretty much the worst-case scenario for him in that spot (as scum he would have been hoping to derail and confuse the game), so he claimed VT to either try to avoid the lynch entirely or bait it onto him immediately.

To me, that made more sense than claiming SK as VT, something which surely means you'll have to be lynched at some point, and people aren't going to take you seriously, and town PR's might be distracted.

I’m not asking for a point by point refutation but I would like you to say what you think was generally wrong with my thinking there

Just to make sure we're on the same page, I'm referring to 2957.

Probably the biggest single thing is that you're taking everything I was saying really literally (like for instance, that I don't scumhunt on D1) when they are emblematic of how I approach the game in general and not absolute incontrovertible law. Your comment about 662 is a good example of this-- I said that scum was probably going to be doing similar things to town at that point. You said you disagreed with that, but it misses the point that that's still a very good representation of how I think-- it is always better to assume that something is NAI than to assume that it is AI.

The other thing I'd like to mention is the turkey thing, you seemed surprised that it could kill my motivation that badly. I guess you've never played in a game where that kind of thing has happened, but here is an example; I was a JOAT with a cop shot and I copped the N1 kill and was tilted for pretty much the entirety of D2. You said that you don't think what gobble did was bad but I heavily disagree, and when you try to think about the way I see the game I should think you'd be able to understand that. What he did basically demolished any chance we had of a normal D1.

is within S_S’s scumrange?

[Menalque]

Cause I don’t really think it is, and if I’m right about that then I don’t really care about the prior bits that I thought were scummy because I’m not sold that those posts are posts scum him is capable of making ESPECIALLY if he knows he’s reasonably likely to be lynched anyway

[Menalque]

I think the only case where S_S tries that hard as scum is if he knows he’s being bussed and that his bussers will unvote which doesn’t fit because you and skitter were two of the first people to come off him

[Menalque]

@S_S when you get back here do you trust me to read datisi?

[Datisi]

i mean i thought it was towny (hence my unvote) but i have no clue about what is or isn't within S_S's scumrange

[Menalque]

You’ve played with S_S before right? Go back and look at a couple of his past games and decide if you think that could be a collection of posting that he, as scum, makes, especially while reacting in real time

[Datisi]

i've played with S_S once in GnR3 and i've been trying to forget that game

if you really want i can look at a few of his games but the only thing that happens when i use second-hand meta is i confbias myself into whatever i've been already thinking so

[Menalque]

Okay well at least go and have a look back at GnR3 and how he played that

For the record, I don’t think S_S is bad at scum by any means (I’ve never won against him when he’s been scum actually) but I think I’ve always been susceptible to how reasonable he tends to be and to townread that. But I think the amount of content there was very genuine and earnest and trying to provide help to solve after death rather than trying to wriggle out of a lynch

[Datisi]

i'd rather not and i don't see excatly how it would help me in determining his scumrange

[Menalque]

Eh it helps me checking my baseline expectations by trying to remember how I felt in past games with people

[Datisi]

if it comes down to s_s + someone else spicy being leading wagons and me being the deciding vote or if we're both alive in lylo and i need to sort him pronto i might start feeling

inspired

desperate and use any and all resources i have

but that time is not now

[Menalque]

Okay that’s fine

What did you think about the wagon breakup and change of directions in thread after?

[Datisi]

err, dunno? i was fine with not voting s_s and starting to build a wagon on maria but i think i share the sentiment with skitter in that i'm really not sure where to vote right now

[PenguinPower]

lilith

[Something_Smart]

Quite an odd breeze we're having today.

[Something_Smart]

@S_S when you get back here do you trust me to read datisi?

I think so? You're pretty familiar with him, aren't you?

[Almost50]

VOTE: bingle

Sorry, skitts, but I'm not gonna sheep you on this one. Bingle not trying to take control of the game is town indicative of him. Of course, he may not feel the need to do it because the town is doing scum's work for them, but in that case the other scum is/are in our town reads, which I find to be an even harder proposition. Like, does something like Bingle + PP/menalque (or both) look feasible to you?

[Blake Belladonna]

I don't have a particularly strong read on Something_Smart, no.

[skitter30]

Of course, he may not feel the need to do it because the town is doing scum's work for them,

ok but in the town!ss and town!lilith universes that townie would be me, no?
i'm not sure why this would necessitate a scum in the townreads

[Blake Belladonna]

I've seen Something_Smart have strong scumgames in the past, and the exact wording and topics of discussion in the quoted posts don't give me much confidence that they can't be faked at all.

That's the type of content that I put out when I'm scum in order to look like I have more to say than I actually do.

[Almost50]

Of course, he may not feel the need to do it because the town is doing scum's work for them,

ok but in the town!ss and town!lilith universes that townie would be me, no?
i'm not sure why this would necessitate a scum in the townreads

Because who else is scum with Bingle? Everybody else has been pushed, aside from FB and Bingle himself.