Newbie 2012 - Game Over

[GuiltyLion]

Furthermore, I dislike your concern about how you are being read by others (walter), it gives me the impression of a mindset of scum-survivalism.

This is a bad point.

Townies should be concerned with how people view them too, I don't think being worried about why you are being scumread is scum-indicative. Also, I may be misunderstanding or missing something, but in that quoted post I think he's asking Italiano about his read on Walter, not worried about how Walter is reading him

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: ItalianoVD

[ItalianoVD]

You know I realize I understand nothing in this game. I’ve tried to no avail.

VOTE: ItalianoVD

L1

Anyone care to hammer?

[Ydrasse]

dude, what? why are you giving up?

[72offsuit]

Err, please don't self vote, regardless of your alignment.
You are doing just fine. What has caused you to come to the conclusion that you "understand nothing in this game"?

Mafia is a game that involves deception on the part of mafia, so it can get heated and frustrating at times, but in the end its a game and its for fun. If you really aren't enjoying the game, then thats fine too, its not for everyone, or sometimes you just need a break.

You can always ask for the mod to replace you out of the game, but i would strongly encourage you to give this game a go. This playing roster seems like a nice group of people (my last game OTOH got a bit toxic).

[Ydrasse]

yeah, like... i understand getting frustrated because that definitely happens in this sort of game, but no one is taking this personally and we're all just trying to have fun.

[72offsuit]

Furthermore, I dislike your concern about how you are being read by others (walter), it gives me the impression of a mindset of scum-survivalism.

This is a bad point.

Townies should be concerned with how people view them too, I don't think being worried about why you are being scumread is scum-indicative. Also, I may be misunderstanding or missing something, but in that quoted post I think he's asking Italiano about his read on Walter, not worried about how Walter is reading him

??

See TTJT's response. He confirms he does ask Italiano for both their read on walter AND on TTJT (himself)

[Ydrasse]

i'll post more in a bit but italiano, i really think that you shouldn't just give up like that. if you think it's not for you, sure, but you should try to have fun with this. :<

[72offsuit]

Im a bit torn regarding early outing of early town reads. Generally town read players just tend to get killed off and you get left with the scumbuckets. Though obviously taking a stance is important so others can get a read of yourself.

What are your thoughts re: the benefits of posting these early town reads vs the cons?

Honestly I've experimented with some different styles regarding sharing townreads and I don't think there's a one-size-fits-all best approach to this dilemma. I think sharing townreads is important because it is a way to tell others who you will NOT vote, it helps build thread consensus and shape the pool of players up for debate about who might be scum. It narrows the trajectories scum can take by reducing the amount of slots they can effectively push.

However, I do think it's valuable to not always explain how strong your townread is, or why you are townreading people in complete detail, because that info does help scum figure out their standing and who might be mislynchable later, and helps them make better NKs.

So it depends. I think I tend to gravitate towards oversharing as town because I think transparency and being correctly townread is extremely valuable and overall makes the game state harder for scum, even with the drawbacks. But there are times when it's correct to mask a little bit about why you townread certain players or how confident you are in it, that's partly why I kinda rebuffed Ydrasse's question.

Ok much appreciated for the response.
This pretty much id exactly what sort of a response i was after. Yeah, this probs doesnt belong within a game thread, but meh.

Think ill continue to keep my town and null reads jumbled up on day one.

Only point i dont get, is that narrowing trajectories part. As town, im more than happy for scum to push obv town, and in doing so make themselves look more Scummy.

[72offsuit]

I just read your previous game Italiano. I can see you were lynched day one as townie. I can reiterate what NK15 said in the post game there. Scumhunting isnt easy, not only for newbies, but also for more experienced players.

I see you scumread piisirrational in that game as well as NK15 who were both town, but dont be discouraged. Sometimes you can help town not necessarily by nailing scum by your own reads, but rather just being genuine and other players reading you as town, thus allowingbthem to identify scum through process of elimination (PoE)

I mean odds are, any given townie WILL be wrong in their reads. From town PoV, any particular scumread has just a 2/8 or 25 percent chance of actually being scum.

[72offsuit]

Just keep doing what you are doing, contributing, such as post 136, and first and foremost remember its just a game!
(which must be won at all costs!!!!!! - just kidding )

[ItalianoVD]

No I’m having fun. I love this game. The main thing is even when I read over things, certain things don’t jump out at me that jump out for the rest of you and then I don’t even know what questions to ask. Or when I don’t know how to answer a question or if I do it doesn’t satisfy the poser of the question. It’s frustrating. And when I don’t know, I just feel lost.

But if that messes up the game I will remove it

unvote:

I’m not trying to mess up the game. My bad.

[ItalianoVD]

VOTE: UNOwen

[ItalianoVD]

Don't mind me I was having a bit of a huff. I'm okay. This what I wanted to post, but...well...yeah.

I'll elaborate on 119 & 121 in a moment, just wanna get everything out.

Scum-you would not think you were putting a target on your back.

You and I both don't know this. Maybe scum you wouldn't think that, but you don't know what scum me would think and neither do I.

What is your thinking when deciding which of us is scummier?

I answered it in 134

Italiano's reaction to pressure has been overly defensive, so I'm content with keeping my vote there. There is quite a bit of content in the game now and he hasn't engaged with any of it, even through the prism of thinking that the people who voted for him must be scum (which is a perspective I could imagine a townie having).

You're right I haven't interacted at all except to zero in on you and Doctor and I noticed it before you said that so I wanted to change that because it's not helping.

In particular I would like to hear what your opinion of JT is.

Said that here 136

I also agree with the votes against ThirteenthJT. His stated suspicions are pretty mechanical - two people made an early push so he pressures them because he has seen scum do that before. Both of us have made further posts but I see no analysis of them so to me it looks like an attempt to take positions without being tied to anything that is specific to this game.

Do you still think that TTJT is my scum partner? Because I think maybe pii is yours.

[ItalianoVD]

so, your scumreads are both doctorpepper and unowen right now, yeah? if you could explain, do you genuinely think that both of them are aligned by virtue of a vote placed on you and do you think that as a team, two players would coordinate themselves to push early/vote together on a person? in 91 you state your reasons to believe they aren't random, but fmpov i don't think both scum would want to jump on a person like that; it seems like it's an easy way to get caught out for buddying.

I don't think they are both scum, no, for reasons you already stated. When I initially posted that was just a quick read. I could say it was to pressure them, but it wasn't.

furthermore, what do you think of doctorpepper's post in 29, where he calls out unowen for being sheepy himself? do you think that a scum player would do that to their teammate that early on? similarly, what do you think of owen saying that his mindset is matching up with pepper's? (58)

No I don't think that. I think that's why I'm feeling a little different towards DoctorPepper and I'm trying to reevaluate things.

i think that your tone so far is a bit defensive, because i don't think that a mislynch was going to come off of a two person wagon. i think that 94 is unfair because scum DO do scummy things, and that's how we find them? it seems disingenuous to say "your reads are wrong because you're reading my actions" because what else is someone supposed to read you off of? that, and the way that you've insisted so far that you're a New Player, thus you wouldn't do this or that (79, 91) seems like a convenient defense as well.

That's fair, but you never know how fast wagons can form. I've read that they can form quickly. My last game was similar: got votes early and ended up getting hammered by scum, so yeah I'm a bit defensive seeing as how things can happen. And I guess I'm going with the understanding that scum are experienced and able to hide the normal tells, but I forget that these are newbie games and apparently different from the non-newbie games?

where are your reads sitting in general right now? it seems so far you've been working with a very narrow scope as to who you've been looking at thus far fmpov. if you think that one of doctorpepper or unowen are scum, who are their partners if they aren't aligned?

You're right I'm gonna put my leads up in a moment.

[ItalianoVD]

Town read(s)

GuiltyLion
Ydrasse
72offsuit
All reads are on gut alone and cannot really put to specfics of why I feel this way, just overall posting and feel. Last game I townread 5 players and only one was scum (which was a surprise to everyone actually). The same feeling I had then I have now.

Semi Town read(s)

DoctorPepper - Saw my initial vote as scummy and said as much. I understand now it and if I was not me, I'd probably see it the same way. I still think it was a bit overzealous though. Also I believe his interaction with 72 to be town v town as I've already stated.
Walter - I cannot really read here; seems townie. Hasn't posted much, but has contributed in the posts that he has.

Null read(s)

TTJT - Don't really have a read here. Could go either way. The reason could be true about why they were asking questions and I suppose it makes sense, but it also seems like something they would do as a private analysis. Wary of his vote on UNOwen because of similar reasons I voted for him. Also 2 of my townreads are voting for him, so I'm questioning any good vibes I may feel.

Semi-scum read(s)

piisirrational - The reason pii here is for one reason only. Activity. I just played a game with him and he was very active and involved from the start. He flipped town that game. This game, he made a couple of posts and hasn't really been involved. He may have some real life things he's taking care of or dealing with, but he's playing very differently.

Scum read(s)

UNOwen - Seemed to jump at the chance to sheep DoctorPepper and build my wagon. Stated that his reason for voting should seem obvious, but still never explained why. I think the quick piggyback is what stood out to me more than the

reasoning

of the vote.

[72offsuit]

It's just trial and error. You can;t expect to be a pro in just 2 games.

1) Read the wiki regarding strategy and common scum tells

2) After a game reflect on what you thought were scum tells. If that player was in fact town, perhaps that scum tell isnt a thing?

If you read someone as town, who was in fact scum, then your reasoning for townreading them is not reliable

[ItalianoVD]

It's just trial and error. You can;t expect to be a pro in just 2 games.

1) Read the wiki regarding strategy and common scum tells

2) After a game reflect on what you thought were scum tells. If that player was in fact town, perhaps that scum tell isnt a thing?

If you read someone as town, who was in fact scum, then your reasoning for townreading them is not reliable

Appreciate that. Will do.

[ItalianoVD]

@Italiano

: Could you expand on your GuiltyLion read?

It is more gut than anything. His overall posting and interaction with the players makes me feel like he is town. He's playing similar to the game he said he caught the scum on day 1 on page 1. It's possible he is the experienced scum, but I'd rather deal in what's probable or more likely.

[Micc]

Votecount 1.04

ItalianoVD (3) -

DoctorPepper, UNOwen, GuiltyLion

TheThirteenthJT (2) -

Ydrasse, 72offsuit

UNOwen (2) -

TheThirteenthJT, ItalianoVD

72offsuit (1) -

WaltertheDunce10

Not Voting (1) -

piisirrational

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to Eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2020-06-28 20:00:00).

DoctorPepper is V/LA until 6/21.

[ItalianoVD]

nah mate, that's not how probability works haha. If I roll a die, either I could roll a 1 or I could not, that doesn't mean these things are 50/50. Your mistake is to say we are working with "no information", townies are already working with information in that 6 other players are town and 2 are scum.

So for any given post right now, it's more likely to be town posting than scum posting.

Yeah I get this, but I guess my question is what math are you using? I'm trying to understand your 75/25 example.

better explanation how? do you want me to talk in greater detail about each player, or one in particular?

Yeah, it doesn't have to be a book, just a quick synopsis on why you think those three are town please.

[WaltertheDunce10]

UNVOTE: 72offsuit
yeah, 72 is seeming more towny to me based of off his interactions with Italiano.
I find it more suspicious now that piis has not posted that much because it is different from his other games in terms of activity.
However, this could be irl stuff, idk as his posting activity seems decreased in that game also.

[DoctorPepper]

Sorry mod, gonna need 24 more hours on that V/LA. Work has been killing me lately, apologies to the rest of the game

[TheThirteenthJT]

And I don't agree with your last point. When you are the highest vote count wagon, (l2) were to scum players could still be off wagon and come in and lynch you, you want to know where everyone stands on you in order to see progression vs random voting to join a wagon. Now if I have no votes and I'm going around asking everyone their opinion on me I can see that as scummy reaching for townpoints.

If you are town, do you think it is likely that two scum will double team you for a lynch on day one having previously not mentioned thinking you were scum?

Well there are many variables to how things can go down. People can have quick turnarounds when wanting to join a wagon. They can go from defending a player to turn on them quick for various reasons. Sometimes when you have suspicions on someone you want to make sure you know where they stand to see if som something can become suspicious turnaround or gradual. So while it's not likely that two scum off wagon would jump into to quicklynch a player, the possibility exists and you want to make sure you cover some ground so it's not so much of a blindside. There also chance that one town one scum or two town decide to quicklynch a player on accident or as a play and it comes out of nowhere.

I'm sorry I'm posting after waking up not too long ago so I hope I'm not jumbling too much and that I've answered your question. I just might not have much time to post later.

[TheThirteenthJT]

VOTE: 72offsuit

I now upon a reread think that last question could be used by scum to change their play in a subtle way.
I would like to know your thinking on the last one and why it is important?
If town, my feeling is that it is a test, but a sloppy one, which, an experienced player would be able to better conduct in a better fashion.
This only adds to my scum read as it gives scum an easy out and ability to adjust.

on another note, Anyone else find it odd that piisirrational popped up answered 72's questions and then dissapeared.

Was this prompted by TJ's post or were you already troubled by the lurker question?

Tj alerted me to that fact, and I did a reread on that to think why that question would be there?
I have also checked 72's posts in previous Mafia games onsite but could not find another instance where he asked this question.
So 72 what game did you post this question?

he asked the question in 4 games that I counted, one scum 3 town. I didn't read further into each game but they are newbie 1994, 1987, 1977 and 1986.