Newbie 2016: Snapdragons (Game Over)

[JamSV]

You seem to have missed the sample size, and the statistical significance of the results. Gonna be real buddy, you don't have my respect as long as you lose to players like Mikul, who has NK'd me N1 in 7 consecutive games when he's been mafia because he cannot beat town!Lucky as scum. For the record, I correctly solved that game almost immediately after D2 started. Go ask your mod how accurate the PMs were. <3

I have 2 bags. Both bags look very similar. Inside both bags are balls. You pick out some balls form the first bag and decide 70% are green and the rest are red. You conclude the second bag had 30% red and 70% green. I'm not saying your statistical data won't work. Regardless of the accuracy of your data and your process of getting it there will be times it overlaps. However it simply is never going to be a valid point.

As someone studying Statistics for a degree, I really do wish we could just go with what you say, however, you will never be able to convince people you're right just be barking on about a data set you have.

[LuckyLuciano]

You are entitled to keep throwing games as town. You do you boo.

[Homura]

Says the pot to the kettle.

[LuckyLuciano]

Says the pot to the kettle.

lol

[JamSV]

A dichotomy would be correct, but not a false dichotomy.

It is a false dichotomy my friend. I took over 200 games on my old site and ran a statistical analysis on town winrate in terms of D1 post count per player. The result was a strong, statistically significant trend. Want to take a guess what the trend said?

You are entitled to keep throwing games as town. You do you boo.

I don't want to have to explain this. A False Dichotomy means out of my given options there are alternatives I purposely missed. I explained how that wasn't true, I explained how and why the options I gave were accurate. You didn't address an option missed out. You didn't point out a flaw in my logic. What you did was quoted the fact you have a data set, of which relates post count to alignment, not one which relates post quality to alignment, and not one which relates post content to alignment. I'll repeat stuff I've already said just so you understand it. During this game there are 2 alignments, scum or town. With a generic anti-town action, there are 3 possibilities: Scum, a bad play on behalf of town, or a town PR trying not to come across as a PR. This isn't a generic anti-town action. In this case I explained why the last case isn't valid, but as a quick rundown Town PRs want as much time to make the correct night play. This leaves 2 possible options. Scum, or a bad town play. A scenario, presented with 2 options, where no valid alternatives exist. A dichotomy, not a false dichotomy. (PS Town PR wanted to end a day abruptly and early would come under bad town play, assumed thats common sense).

What this tells us is you aren't going to have a positive impact on the game. You either refused to debunk something properly, or were too inexperienced to do so. You shove issues and questions under the rug with profound and incorrect statements, instead of addressing them or providing an explanation. The sole explanation you have is an arbitrary data set which only has Post Count (as far as you've explained) taken into account. This just shows you can't handle a issue regarding post quality or post content and can't rationalise an argument. I have confidence that throughout this game there'll be many points where you dismiss everything a person asks of you, and is suspicious of you for due to a statistical source of a different website, which I already pointed out the issues with. Due to that, you're officially scum read. No longer a lean. I'm already okay with Hammering Lucky if we get the opportunity.

If you can prove me wrong feel free, I'll redact my statements if you do, I don't like being blunt and unpleasant, but I felt this situation called for it.

[JamSV]

I'll be in work over the next few hours, the next chance for me to respond will probably be 4pm GMT. See you all then.

[Raya36]

Lucky and blopp. Maybe Clark but I'm unsure

Where's your vote then?

My vote is "on" Blopp I just don't want him at L-1

Perhaps it is a coincidence, but since being wagoned, Blopp has removed their profile pic. That means they have been onsite and decided not to post. So now we have her ignoring the initial wagon that I started with 72o, despite posting after it began and ignoring my case. In addition, we have her logging on to remove her profile pic and still not posting. Feels a lot like giving up to me.

This is a bad case and very reachy.

Also can you all look back at my two questions (rqs) I asked. I really want to know the answer for the first one.

I'll do this in my next post.

UNVOTE:
I don't want a quick hammer. L-2 is plenty for pressure. Scumlean on Lucky for not removing his vote. Could be hoping for that quickhammer

Is he your only scumlean or do you have more?

Lucky and blopp. Maybe Clark but I'm unsure

"I scumlean Lucky for possibly wanting a quick hammer on my other scumlean."

For the record, I'm expecting Blopp not to post again until the slot is replaced, and if the slot claims VT I will be pushing for the slot to be eliminated.

Just because I scumlean him doesnt mean I'm right (I never take associations into account D1. I often have multiple scumread that don't work together). And its perfectly viable to be concerned about someone not removing their vote at L-1 when Blopp hasn't even talked yet.

Actually since I can't vote Blopp right now VOTE: Lucky. I think this is more likely anyway. Your stats case also was reachy and the whole basis of your scumread isn't concrete. I would accept your case if and only if it was supporting evidence of a much stronger and more viable case.

[Raya36]

Also I think Jam is town. For reasoning and tone

[Raya36]

1. Are you a straightforward player or like to do a lot of private analysis?
2. How upset would you be if you are lynched Day 1 from a scale of 1-10? 10 being highly upset.

1. I think I'm somewhere in the middle. Anything I think is important enough to say I will post about. I like to comment any major thoughts i have on posts. Sometimes I will keep a read secret to get more reactions etc out of someone but that's not common for me. And often I'll have reads I don't comment on because they're on the weaker side but that's probably true for everyone. I'm definitely more on the straightforward side though.

2. 3? I want to play obviously but I wouldn't be very upset D1 mostly because I'm not that invested yet.

[JamSV]

Also I think Jam is town. For reasoning and tone

It's not a usual tone don't worry, do you know when you just get that sudden flow of information and ideas? I'm rather all or nothing in terms of input unfortunately.

[Raya36]

Also I think Jam is town. For reasoning and tone

It's not a usual tone don't worry, do you know when you just get that sudden flow of information and ideas? I'm rather all or nothing in terms of input unfortunately.

That's exactly why I tone read you as town. The flow of ideas sounds natural

[72offsuit]

Too tired, will post tomorrow morning

[JamSV]

1. Are you a straightforward player or like to do a lot of private analysis?
2. How upset would you be if you are lynched Day 1 from a scale of 1-10? 10 being highly upset.

1. I think I'm somewhere in the middle. Anything I think is important enough to say I will post about. I like to comment any major thoughts i have on posts. Sometimes I will keep a read secret to get more reactions etc out of someone but that's not common for me. And often I'll have reads I don't comment on because they're on the weaker side but that's probably true for everyone. I'm definitely more on the straightforward side though.

2. 3? I want to play obviously but I wouldn't be very upset D1 mostly because I'm not that invested yet.

This is just curiosity, I'm not suspicious but, would I be right to assume if you're quiet with reads you're likely suspicious of somebody but want more concrete evidence? - Just to be safe for later on in the game

[Raya36]

1. Are you a straightforward player or like to do a lot of private analysis?
2. How upset would you be if you are lynched Day 1 from a scale of 1-10? 10 being highly upset.

1. I think I'm somewhere in the middle. Anything I think is important enough to say I will post about. I like to comment any major thoughts i have on posts. Sometimes I will keep a read secret to get more reactions etc out of someone but that's not common for me. And often I'll have reads I don't comment on because they're on the weaker side but that's probably true for everyone. I'm definitely more on the straightforward side though.

2. 3? I want to play obviously but I wouldn't be very upset D1 mostly because I'm not that invested yet.

This is just curiosity, I'm not suspicious but, would I be right to assume if you're quiet with reads you're likely suspicious of somebody but want more concrete evidence? - Just to be safe for later on in the game

Honestly if I'm quiet with reads I'm probably just tired or something. If I'm suspicious of somebody and want more evidence I'll likely be questioning them without giving a read on them but I'd still be vocal about other reads.

[Nahdia]

Vote Count 1.03

LuckyLuciano (3):

Homura, JamSV, Raya36

Blopp (2):

LuckyLuciano, 72offsuit

ClarkBar (2):

Blopp, TheThirteenthJT

Homura (1):

ClarkBar

Not Voting (1):

EchoVision

Deadline is in

(expired on 2020-07-11 13:52:07)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With nine players alive, it takes

five

to reach majority.

Mod Note:

Still seeking replacement for EchoVision.

[JamSV]

Hmm. Well this is only my second game, and my first one was out of RVS and humming along pretty quickly. So... not sure if there are any other good strategies to break the ice a little.

I'm so glad you asked!
There is a fantastic scumhunting tool called RQS (that's Random Question Stage to the uninitiated).
I do not proclaim to have devised this foolproof tool.

1. What is your experience in mafia outside of mafiascum?
2. Do you prefer playing as town or scum?
3. What do you think of lynching lurkers?
4. What do you think of lynching liars?

1. This is my first forum game but I have played mafia (or werewolf) a few times at parties live (or IRL as the cool kids say it).
2. I haven't played enough to say if I have a preference yet but town was fun when I played with my friends. One of my friends has a really bad poker face so it was fairly easy to see that she was lying to us. I had an "Aha!" moment.
3. I would say not good. Sometimes someone is shy but innocent. I think I'd rather try to hear their thought process first.
4. I'd say good?

What about you @72offsuit?

Nah, ill abstain from answering . The RQS tool is incompatible with myself. My alignment cannot be verified via RQS.

So then. Let us do some nitpicking, it's all issues with the process. Experience is NAI. Preferance of play is NAI. Lurker interpretations are NAI. Lying is hard to identify as lying rather than a mistake, similarly, also NAI. However, refusing to answer a question, while NAI, it certainly doesn't look great for town. Address this please, or respond to Blopp. Its difficult to identify a lier so the closest thing one can do is to vote for a hypocrite.

[JamSV]

It is all well and good to try to be the cool 500IQ anime protagonist, Detective Conan level scumhunter. However, what is much cooler, much more respectable, would be to actually help town. A mysterious, secretive, low impact town member might aswell not be town but have an entirely neutral role.

[JamSV]

For the record, I'm expecting Blopp not to post again until the slot is replaced, and if the slot claims VT I will be pushing for the slot to be eliminated.

So I am going to address this after all. As Jam may recall, I can be somewhat of lush and tonight is no exception, but I'll try and keep my thoughts clear.

I do find activity on this site by a player which does not occur in the thread(s) in which they are playing to be scum-indicative. In other words, if you're here doing stuff (on Mafiascum) but not

posting in the game you're in

I find that suspicious. I hate to keep referencing my last game, but it's my only frame of reference. In my last game there was a player whose activity/behavior outside of our game thread was distinctly different than it was inside it. I voted for that player, the wagon got to L-1, and then the player was replaced. That slot ended up being scum.

Which brings up my next point, and I am just thinking out loud here. I think Lucky is correct in pushing this "angle". I think I disagree that a replacement be lynched unless they claim a PR. How can a replacement answer for another player who has barely posted? What information can be gleaned from that Lynch provided it doesn't turn up scum? Just a wagon exam?

I know: "here goes Clarkbar defending Blopp again". I disagree that I ever did, and I'm not doing so now. I like the wagon well enough, I just wonder about the virtue of that last bit regarding lynching a replacement unless there's a PR claim. Since Lucky has made that the condition of a successful claim, couldn't any replacement (even town perhaps) make a PR claim? Thus forcing possible counter-claims?

If you think the target of a wagon is scum, it doesn't matter that it's not fair to their replacement that they have to defend another player's actions. If scum fake claims TPR and gets CC'd, we still win the trade. Scum trading 1-for-1 is a losing trade for them.

I've never been a typical D1 elimination target, so I couldn't tell you.

How would you characterize a "typical D1 elimination target"? What makes you different? Would you consider that difference a conscious choice or just your natural style?

Players who push the game forward and generate AI content don't die D1. There's also the fact that I come from a site where the metagame was literally to cop / track me N1, and mafia would NK me N1 if I was town. As in, over the course of ~10 years I was targeted for the kill N1 in

over 40%

of my town games, and in roughly half the games I survived N1 as town I was the target of a mafia framer, so in a way I guess I was off the table for D1 lynches because it was assumed that my slot would resolve itself eventually anyway.

While its on my mind Lucky, can you tell us more about your previous site? What I'm mainly interested in knowing is game size, and role allocation, ie, 9 players, 2 scum 7 town, 11 players, 3 scum 8 town, etc etc.

[JamSV]

Hmm. Well this is only my second game, and my first one was out of RVS and humming along pretty quickly. So... not sure if there are any other good strategies to break the ice a little.

I'm so glad you asked!
There is a fantastic scumhunting tool called RQS (that's Random Question Stage to the uninitiated).
I do not proclaim to have devised this foolproof tool.

1. What is your experience in mafia outside of mafiascum?
2. Do you prefer playing as town or scum?
3. What do you think of lynching lurkers?
4. What do you think of lynching liars?

1. Extensive play close to 10 yrs ago. Third game here.
2. Mafia.
3. You know my answer here. Not really but might be changing my opinion on this. Depends on circumstances.
4. A bit of weird question. Context is important.


Now let me add two more.

1. Are you a straightforward player or like to do a lot of private analysis?
2. How upset would you be if you are lynched Day 1 from a scale of 1-10? 10 being highly upset.

I want to partake in this also.

1. Played with (UK) college friends in a WhatsApp group chat, also watched OfflineTV Mafia which has disgraceful quality of game play but its funny occasionally.
2. I actually really like to play Vanilla Townie, this obviously might sound really weird, but if you're playing VT, if you decide to go balls to the wall with aggression, if it backfires and you get hammered, you had a fun game, and it doesn't hurt town too much.
3. Post count is irrelevant, post content and quality is relevant. However there probably will be times where I'll want to hammer a lurker, because they might be ruining the game for the rest of the players by not inputting. If its not ELo, and its a case of lurking with prod evasion, I might vote for them because they could be making the game boring.
4. Hard to know when somebody is lying and not making a mistake so I don't like hammering / voting for someone on a potentially completely false pretext. Hypocrisy is a different kettle of fish, and if its regular and to a bad degree, I will start to scum read them more and more as it continues.

1. If the game interests me I'll be very straightforward, post a lot, be honest and open, and be more aggressive. If the game gets boring, agonisingly slow, and isn't going anywhere, I'll do risky plays just go get something on the table.
2. 10. I don't want to be killed early. I like the vibes I get from playing with ClarkBar so I want to play this game out and win with him / beat him this time. Also nobody really wants to be hammered.

[ClarkBar]

I guess Homura is too cool to answer my questions or respond to my vote.

[JamSV]

I think we just have a dead group to play with

[ClarkBar]

I wonder if it'll be like last game and the bulk of the players are replaced.

[JamSV]

I wonder if it'll be like last game and the bulk of the players are replaced.

By the way Clark may I ask for your opinion on 72 and Lucky? Its okay if you're unsure, its still early in Day 1

[Nahdia]

Prodding Blopp.

[72offsuit]

As a matter of courtesy, it would be nice if somebody replaces in to give them the benefit of the doubt,

Replacing into a slot doesn't make it town.

we have more than a week to make a safe kill.

Why is a longer day phase inherently better than a short one?

Whether its scummy or a bad play is a different kettle of fish.

This is a false dichotomy.

1. I never said it made them town
2. Helps prevention of a town elimination
3. No it isn't but I like your attempt at discrediting. There isn't town incentive to end a day early. The longer the day the less chance of killing of a town, similarly, if a Cop, you want time to work out who to investigate, Doctor's want time to learn who to heal, Trackers to track, Jailkeepers to Jail, Friendly Neighbour to Neighbour, Masons to get extra stuff worked out amongst the two of them. Ending the day early allows the following:

• Town elimination
• Shorter discussion and the prevention of discussion
• Free time for Scum under suspicion to work out excuses
• Less time for Scum to be found

The list can go on but they're the most important to take into account.

To disallow a day phase to be brought out sufficiently, it is inherently anti-town. If somebody purposely does something anti-town there are two options:
They are scum
OR
They are town and it's a bad play.

We have arrived at the simple conclusion I got to with more detailed explanation than you simply dismissing it as a false dichotomy. A dichotomy would be correct, but not a false dichotomy.

PS I also find it bad practice to quote an answer to the question you're going to ask...

we have more than a week

to make a safe kill.

Why is a longer day phase inherently better than a short one?

Leaning on Lucky, mostly for his post, and partly because he's an English lit student who doesn't quote context to make a quote more accurate.

NAI post. I don;t really see the !scumAgenda here. Its not like he is pushing for a quickhammer.
LL always states he prefers shorter day ones.
I've come round to his line of thinking too.