Newbie 2012 - Game Over

[Micc]

Votecount 2.03

72offsuit (3) -

WaltertheDunce10, Ydrasse, DoctorPepper

GuiltyLion (2) -

72offsuit, ItalianoVD

Not Voting (3) -

MiniMegabyte, UNOwen, GuiltyLion

With 8 players alive it takes 5 votes to Eliminate.

The deadline for Day 2 is in (expired on 2020-07-07 13:05:00).

Ydrasse is V/LA until 7/5.

[72offsuit]

Okay. If 72 flips town I will turn my sights onto two. If he flips scum then one of the two will be town in my book and the other will not change. Basically regardless of 72’s alignment I feel this person is scum.

If I was scum, then by virtue of the 2-scum setup, that means there would only be 1 other scum, therefore one of UNO or GL would have to be town.
What point are you trying to make here?

[ItalianoVD]

I’ll be looking at two players should you flip town and should you flip scum I will only be looking at one of the two players.

So to elaborate. One of the two players I feel is scum regardless of your alignment, the other of the two players I feel, at least in my mind, can only be scum if you are town. Figured I’d put some pressure of one of the two.

[GuiltyLion]

In the interest of ensuring this game isnt stalled by the eventuality of 72's lynch

Rest of town:
Who are your possible scum teams today if not 72?

I'm currently thinking Mini+UNo

I agree with this. UNOwen's latest push on me is bad bad bad and I will get to that in a moment. 72 not claiming any PR actually makes me think he may not be scum after all

[GuiltyLion]

@GuiltyLion. Could you explain your transition from 718 to 744 to 757

I think I may have missed the reasons behind not scumreading Owen and Ydrasse.

When I posted 718, I hadn't reread the game yet.

When I posted 744, I had just reread the game, looking for signs/tells of UNOwen or Ydrasse partnered with 72, and hadn't found any.

The reasons behind not scumreading them were - I went looking for things that would stand out assuming a red!72, and didn't find any.

What about this do you find more likely to be coming from me as scum? Especially considering that if I'm scum, I

know

I need to be setting up reasons to push mislynches onto other townies, and therefore there's literally no benefit to me to be waffling and saying things like "geez I'm having a hard time figuring out who is scum here", like, that's the exact opposite of what I should (and would) be doing as scum where I'm finding fake scummy-looking things to push people on

[GuiltyLion]

Re: GuiltyLion, I feel more strongly that he is scum than before. I had noticed that the reasons he suspected me over Ydrasse never materialised and also his case against Mini felt like he was more concerned with trying to get me to consider Mini-72 rather than it being something he actually believed (that he was using misleading vote analysis adds to this suspicion). I also note that GuiltyLion went from betting the game on 72 being town (424) to not being willing to consider 72 town unless he flips town. Since his only reason for suspecting 72 is the quickhammer this seems a drastic change. That makes me think GuiltyLion either knows 72 is going to flip scum and doesn't want to be seen as defending him or knows he is going to flip town and wants to frame the day in such a way as to be useless post flip.

so on this

a) Do you not see how a quickhammer is the precise reason for a drastic change
b) Again, as I just pointed out to Italiano - what on earth is the motivation/benefit to scum!me for ... failing to make a case on people? Why do you see that as something that I'm intentionally calculating to do as scum? I was exactly trying to get you to consider Mini-72, because I'm really struggling to find a solve that makes sense with scum!72 and trying to explore a variety of options.

One other point on the "misleading vote analysis" - it's pretty clear I didn't go back and pay close attention to that sequence

regardless of my alignment

, because if I knew that I was wrong and going to be corrected/called out for that, I wouldn't have posted it. Do you actually think scum!me knew that 72 had unvoted earlier than I was going to claim, and went and deliberately lied about it, hoping that nobody went back to check on it?

Then, the next question I'd pose to you is - given that I clearly was mistaken/erroneous, why is scum!GL less likely to make sure he is right about things like that than town!GL?

[GuiltyLion]

I really don't see why scum!72 wouldn't claim a PR there to try to out the PR.

It makes no sense to me as a scum move. Obviously it'd be an implausible claim, but at the very least it would force the real town PRs to CC to make sure he is lynched.

I don't think 72 is scum.

VOTE: MiniMegabyte

This is the lynch that should happen. MiniMegabyte is coasting and hasn't taken any useful/definitive stances on most of the slots in this game. I think her play makes a lot of sense as someone who is

not

partnered with 72, whereas it does make little sense as someone who

is

partnered with 72.

72 and DocPep, what are your thoughts on this?

[GuiltyLion]

anyways I was on vacation and kinda putting this game on the backburner a bit but I intend to play a lot with the remaining time, so I'll be around. I have more things I might want to say depending on how the votes go

Doctor Pepper can you jam with me on 72 claiming VT there? I strongly feel that's a genuine claim. Scum!72 has every reason to claim a PR there

[DoctorPepper]

I don't buy it but I'm letting my actual disdain for 72 cloud my read here.

Because even as scum if play the VT card to try to gain sympathy off of AtE.

[GuiltyLion]

my worry is if 72 does flip town we're in trouble at this point

Italiano and UNOwen are set to vote me, a game losing miselimination, and scum would also be free to CC any PRs as needed.

which is why I think 72 would have claimed PR if scum, it would at least set the partner up to guaranteed murk an important PR at night and give them a fighting chance. Only way he's scum is if he's completely given up on the game IMO

[Ydrasse]

i touched upon 72's lack of pr claim earlier because i had similar thoughts about it not doing anything to help a partner in 802 — but like, at this point the ship had long sailed to claim pr. i'm similarly wary of the VT claim because fmpov it is the only option for a scum 72 to do right now that could contribute to any survival.

like, it feels... last effort to me, sort of? like at this point 72 admits himself that he's lost steam in this game and i can't blame him for that, but all together i don't know if that is a town player who is frustrated they're getting miseliminated or a scum player getting eliminated for a suboptimal play.

@GL: you seemed pretty adamant that 72 was scum and needed to be eliminated, so is the claim the only thing right now that's making you think 72 is town? in truth it looks a bit odd that you're backing off of the elimination only as someone else has begun to support 72's push against you, but i dunno if that's the timing of coming back or not.

[DoctorPepper]

Nah, nevermind that. I'm utterly convinced that 72 had a really scummy case on me.

Get your votes back to this wagon

[GuiltyLion]

i'm similarly wary of the VT claim because fmpov it is the only option for a scum 72 to do right now that could contribute to any survival.

but does this even contribute to his survival? like I think he's highly likely going down either way, why not just claim doctor or JKer and force the counterclaim

[72offsuit]

I really don't see why scum!72 wouldn't claim a PR there to try to out the PR.

It makes no sense to me as a scum move. Obviously it'd be an implausible claim, but at the very least it would force the real town PRs to CC to make sure he is lynched.

I don't think 72 is scum.

VOTE: MiniMegabyte

This is the lynch that should happen. MiniMegabyte is coasting and hasn't taken any useful/definitive stances on most of the slots in this game. I think her play makes a lot of sense as someone who is

not

partnered with 72, whereas it does make little sense as someone who

is

partnered with 72.

72 and DocPep, what are your thoughts on this?

Why Mini over Uno?

[72offsuit]

I don;t see any associatives with Mini. Literally could be scum with any player.

[72offsuit]

GL + Mini is very unlikely given GL's 218

TTJT was most likely prior to that, and the change of tack by GL towards Pii/Mini seems unlikely in a GL + Mini team.
There was decent chance of that wagon flying, given pii's lurking and the overall sentiment towards that slot.

[72offsuit]

Bus by Walter also seems unlikely.

[72offsuit]

IVD also unlikely with him having Pii/mini as 2nd most likely scum in 190

[72offsuit]

Yd declared in 386 that Mini was within PoE slots for elimination
Yd seems to have a reasonable stance on Mini throughout the game, nothing really felt out of place for me.

[UNOwen]

No hammer opportunity is sad.
I will catch up in a bit.

[72offsuit]

I guess as a starting point, UNOwen I want to get more of your thoughts on this. Are you really comfortable totally ruling out Mini as a partner based on this logic? I get where you're coming from and I've been thinking much the same way, but I think I still have hesitation in that if his partner

is

the compromise lynch and now he's perceiving that he's losing a 1v1 with DP - what if he felt the loss was inevitable if he was hammered yesterday and hence he took the first opportunity to guarantee survival for at least one more day?

If we take this hypothetical and say 72 feels the situation is desperate, I don't know why he decides to kamikaze himself instead of attempting to throw Mini under the bus - something he had already set up. We are agreed he is a strong player, even if he was under pressure do we really think he decides Mini is the better bet to win the game than he is?

I know I'm assuming the conclusion there instead of showing why the evidence supports the conclusion, but I don't know if I want to completely rule out the plausibility of 72/Mini pairing solely on the idea that 72 would have slow played it a little more in that case. You seem to be saying you are willing to do that, and that you'd chain eliminate Ydrasse and myself back to back, and I want to know if you don't have any doubts/uncertainty about that

Day 1 ended in a way that I was so sure wouldn't happen that I actually suspected JT for entertaining the possibility, so I'm aware that I need to keep an open mind. However I am confident in my logic here and I am confident it is either you or Ydrasse.

Rereading this post just gives me scum vibes ++.
Uno: 1) Referring to me as a "strong player"

while

2) Simultaneously thinking !scumMe would deliberately hammer town without getting a claim as scum

doesn;t seem congruous. Doesn;t feel as if its coming from a town mindset.


Furthermore the analysis on me+mini feels forced

[72offsuit]

I’ll be looking at two players should you flip town and should you flip scum I will only be looking at one of the two players.

So to elaborate. One of the two players I feel is scum regardless of your alignment, the other of the two players I feel, at least in my mind, can only be scum if you are town. Figured I’d put some pressure of one of the two.

@IVD: Would you be open to considering to voting+eliminating UNO today?

[72offsuit]

To me the other potential scum could be mini or unowen, with 72 being one of them.
However, if 72 is town then my reads are off.
I plan to do a reread but need to find the time.
Docpepper is town along with jt now.

If you had to choose between Mini or UNO, who would you vote to eliminate?

[ItalianoVD]

I’ll be looking at two players should you flip town and should you flip scum I will only be looking at one of the two players.

So to elaborate. One of the two players I feel is scum regardless of your alignment, the other of the two players I feel, at least in my mind, can only be scum if you are town. Figured I’d put some pressure of one of the two.

@IVD: Would you be open to considering to voting+eliminating UNO today?

Yes. I haven’t taken my eyes off of UNOwen. His last post is weird.

[72offsuit]

I’ll be looking at two players should you flip town and should you flip scum I will only be looking at one of the two players.

So to elaborate. One of the two players I feel is scum regardless of your alignment, the other of the two players I feel, at least in my mind, can only be scum if you are town. Figured I’d put some pressure of one of the two.

@IVD: Would you be open to considering to voting+eliminating UNO today?

Yes. I haven’t taken my eyes off of UNOwen. His last post is weird.

Pretty much.

It speaks volumes in my opinion. More concerned with his pre-determined plan, rather than the current game-state.