Newbie 2012 - Game Over

[72offsuit]

No hammer opportunity is sad.
I will catch up in a bit.

*referring to this post ^

[72offsuit]

VOTE: UNO

[ItalianoVD]

Regarding Mini/pii/Sera slot: Sure, she could be scum. 3 players have all had the spot and all 3 have played similar. For me that is too much of a coincidence for three people to have equal amounts of real life issues. It makes more sense, at least for me, that

1)) The slot is probably scum and the players don’t want to play or understand how to play as scum and/or they don’t like the partner they are with.
2)) There more experienced partner told them to play that way so they would have a reason to bus and get town crew.

The problem #2 is that I doubt any town crew would come from bussing Mini because everyone can see how bad the slot looks. It’s not a pull.

So if we’re going with the idea that Mini is in fact scum, who is most likely her partner? And then the question is: Would her partner distance themselves from her or try to bus her? For me it’s too much to analyze for today with not a lot of time left.

UNOwen now is your chance to put your money where your mouth is and vote for GuiltyLion.

[ItalianoVD]

*cred not crew. Stupid autocorrect.

[ItalianoVD]

What is everyone’s thoughts on UNOwen’s 844? Pretty telling if you ask me.

[DoctorPepper]

Would scum be that transparent

[ItalianoVD]

Who knows, maybe, probably.

[GuiltyLion]

I really don't see why scum!72 wouldn't claim a PR there to try to out the PR.

It makes no sense to me as a scum move. Obviously it'd be an implausible claim, but at the very least it would force the real town PRs to CC to make sure he is lynched.

I don't think 72 is scum.

VOTE: MiniMegabyte

This is the lynch that should happen. MiniMegabyte is coasting and hasn't taken any useful/definitive stances on most of the slots in this game. I think her play makes a lot of sense as someone who is

not

partnered with 72, whereas it does make little sense as someone who

is

partnered with 72.

72 and DocPep, what are your thoughts on this?

Why Mini over Uno?

Mini just feels like an empty slot that is impossible to get a solid read on one way or the other, I'd rather not have to deal with it in 5p LYLO. If we pivot to UNOwen and he flips town that leaves me feeling just as screwed as if we eliminated you and you flipped town

[GuiltyLion]

@GL: you seemed pretty adamant that 72 was scum and needed to be eliminated, so is the claim the only thing right now that's making you think 72 is town? in truth it looks a bit odd that you're backing off of the elimination only as someone else has begun to support 72's push against you, but i dunno if that's the timing of coming back or not.

Yeah, it's the claim and the weird feeling throughout today of me not being able to find a solid 72 partner and everyone else seemingly unwilling or unable to work with me on that, at all. The fact that so many players are planting seeds to vote me either right now or tomorrow makes me feel like this is a losing game state.

[GuiltyLion]

we have 1 day left until deadline

I'll be around throughout. If we default to eliminating 72 then I'll vote there to make sure a flip happens, but I'm no longer confident he flips scum and so I'd be happy to deadline wagon elsewhere

[UNOwen]

Like I said, DP sapped my enjoyment out of this game.

If this is true then it is a shame, because you were one of the more proactive players day 1. It's also a shame because your play today has been indistinguishable from defeatist scum half-heartedly attempting reverse psychology to get out of elimination.

[UNOwen]

so on this

a) Do you not see how a quickhammer is the precise reason for a drastic change
b) Again, as I just pointed out to Italiano - what on earth is the motivation/benefit to scum!me for ... failing to make a case on people? Why do you see that as something that I'm intentionally calculating to do as scum? I was exactly trying to get you to consider Mini-72, because I'm really struggling to find a solve that makes sense with scum!72 and trying to explore a variety of options.

Yes it's the justification for the drastic change in read, but it is still a drastic change. If you were that locked in on someone being town beforehand I'm surprised you weren't even willing to entertain the possibility that they weren't scum today. I see though that you have dropped that viewpoint in response to 72's claim.

If you set out to frame a day under false assumptions, then any arguments you make during that day can be easily walked back. That is what I am arguing. Though I think the scum suggestion is more likely. On Mini-72: yes that's the point. You were trying to get me to consider something that you yourself didn't believe in.

One other point on the "misleading vote analysis" - it's pretty clear I didn't go back and pay close attention to that sequence

regardless of my alignment

, because if I knew that I was wrong and going to be corrected/called out for that, I wouldn't have posted it. Do you actually think scum!me knew that 72 had unvoted earlier than I was going to claim, and went and deliberately lied about it, hoping that nobody went back to check on it?

Then, the next question I'd pose to you is - given that I clearly was mistaken/erroneous, why is scum!GL less likely to make sure he is right about things like that than town!GL?

In general I think if someone is genuine, they are more likely to double check their assumptions because they are sincerely trying to find scum. If someone is faking then they are more likely to make mistakes because they aren't sincerely trying to find scum, only pretending to. I feel like this is a fairly straightforward point.

[GuiltyLion]

In general I think if someone is genuine, they are more likely to double check their assumptions because they are sincerely trying to find scum. If someone is faking then they are more likely to make mistakes because they aren't sincerely trying to find scum, only pretending to. I feel like this is a fairly straightforward point.

When I'm scum I'm a lot more cautious and careful to check what I'm saying, whereas when I'm town I'm just vomiting thoughts into the thread freestyle all the time because I have nothing at stake other than to try to express myself and get other players constantly talking as well

[UNOwen]

I really don't see why scum!72 wouldn't claim a PR there to try to out the PR.

It makes no sense to me as a scum move. Obviously it'd be an implausible claim, but at the very least it would force the real town PRs to CC to make sure he is lynched.

I know you didn't ask me, but the point I made previously still applies - if the question is "why would scum do that?" then the answer is so people will ask "why would scum do that?". If you are town, then you have flipped your view on 72 on the basis of his claim. If a couple more players take that view then the move worked. Excluding the claim: do you think his play today has been town?

[GuiltyLion]

Excluding the claim: do you think his play today has been town?

Not especially so, no. But at this point his flip was so near certain that I really don't understand why he wouldn't make sure to out a PR on the way down. What he's done has basically put him at high likelihood of going down with the PRs still uncertain. That's strictly suboptimal from a scum perspective and I doubt he thinks a VT claim alone is enough to avoid getting flipped today or for the rest of the game.

[UNOwen]

Rereading this post just gives me scum vibes ++.
Uno: 1) Referring to me as a "strong player"

while

2) Simultaneously thinking !scumMe would deliberately hammer town without getting a claim as scum

Just because I think you are a strong player does not mean I think you can't make bad plays, just that you would have some motivation behind those plays before making them.

[UNOwen]

No idea why people have a problem with 844.
VOTE: 72offsuit

[UNOwen]

When I'm scum I'm a lot more cautious and careful to check what I'm saying, whereas when I'm town I'm just vomiting thoughts into the thread freestyle all the time because I have nothing at stake other than to try to express myself and get other players constantly talking as well

This is the opposite of how I think you would play.
Could you link me your most recent games so I can investigate this?

[GuiltyLion]

I don't have a problem with 844

if anything I think you doubling down on 72 here reads town

idk I just feel lost this game. if 72 flips red all is fine but I have this gnawing fear that he's going to flip green and this is a loss

[UNOwen]

Not especially so, no. But at this point his flip was so near certain that I really don't understand why he wouldn't make sure to out a PR on the way down. What he's done has basically put him at high likelihood of going down with the PRs still uncertain. That's strictly suboptimal from a scum perspective and I doubt he thinks a VT claim alone is enough to avoid getting flipped today or for the rest of the game.

Depends if he thinks he can avoid going down. Given that he has sprung into life attempting to rally a counter push against me (and I note that he did not move his vote from you until Italiano suggested it was a go-er) I would suggest he is still trying to avoid elimination.

[GuiltyLion]

here's a recent towngame where I efforted a lot and I'm sure made plenty of mistakes throughout - https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=82824
here's another recent newbie towngame - https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=81899

here are some of my recent scumgames in Newbies -
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=82570
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=78203

here's my other most recent scumgame
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=80998

[ItalianoVD]

VOTE: Unvote:

[ItalianoVD]

UNVOTE: GuiltyLion

[ItalianoVD]

VOTE: UNO

All I know is someone is playing a masterful scum game. I am so confused and I both distrust and trust what everyone is saying, if that makes sense. I have no idea who is who anymore. 72 is at L1.

@UNOwen: You think GuiltyLion is scum, been saying all game that he is and now you have a chance to vote for him and tie the score at 3 and you did not. Either you are protecting the heck out of GuiltyLion or you don’t actually believe he is scum and was just throwing that out there fishing for responses. I don’t like it. You failed the test.

Vote count is:
72 (4)
UNOwen (1)

I don’t mind hammering, but I want to vote UNOwen. I feel scum is on 72’s wagon. If he is scum then the other is probably not voting (Mini) or wasting a vote (GuiltyLion). If he is town, I doubt both of them are on it. It still fits the scenario that one is on and one is off. I think we will know for sure once 72 flips. @72: I’m sorry if your town brother, but kudos to you if you’re scum because I’ve been crazy confused. You have me questioning my reads over and over.

[ItalianoVD]

*you’re town

VOTE: 72offsuit