Open 784 - Hard-Boiled (Town Wins!)


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Post Post #1225 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:22 pm

Post by Froppy »

What if they managed to find another PR there is also a 50/50 that the detective was even selected.
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Post Post #1226 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:23 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

How about if the tracker found a vt, they claim first, and then hider claims?
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Post Post #1227 (ISO) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:25 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1225, Froppy wrote:What if they managed to find another PR there is also a 50/50 that the detective was even selected.
Even if hider outs, they can continue investigating people

If mafia ignores the tracker and double kills the hider/their target from within the poe pool, we also win, I believe
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Post Post #1228 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:07 am

Post by Aristophanes »

Hey, so, before you guys vote to get rid of me for arguing against both Red flips thus far, consider that I would never have done that as scum!

It's about all I've got, here. I'm town tho.
I'll see about rooting out that last scum before the day is up.
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Ari has appeared way too competent for me to even pretend to know what they're thinking
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it wouldn’t be an ari sig unless it takes up half the screen on mobile - Vonflare
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Post Post #1229 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:13 am

Post by Aristophanes »

Tracker can't be 100% sure they got a VT other than last night phase, but I agree that a massclaim can only benefit us right now! We have 3 Miselims before we hit ELo. Game should run itself now, unless the last scum is some kind of god!
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Post Post #1230 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:21 am

Post by Battle Mage »

massclaim probably good. Dunnstral speculation bad. I'll be back tonight with more wisdom so we can wrap this one up. Don't get too trigger happy in the meantime please.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #1231 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:27 am

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1230, Battle Mage wrote:massclaim probably good. Dunnstral speculation bad.
??
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Post Post #1232 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:35 am

Post by Dunnstral »

ok... I'll start us off

I'm the
Tracker


Night 1 - Aristophanes didn't perform the kill
Night 2 - Battle Mage went nowhere

The second result is the most important, Battle Mage is confirmed to be
Town and VT


So that's one of two town VTs accounted for, we need one more for a win today

So if the hider thinks it's a good idea, they can claim next. If they don't do that, it's fine if I die tonight - I got my result out and there's another investigative, and they can skip over Battle Mage and I in the hider charts

(It doesn't really matter that I revealed him as vt since I'm a primary target anyway)
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Post Post #1233 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:49 am

Post by Battle Mage »

you tracked me last night? what was the point of that?! :facepalm:

I was essentially conftown anyway...

Not to worry, I think this game is pretty much in the bag anyway.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #1234 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:50 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 1231, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1230, Battle Mage wrote:massclaim probably good. Dunnstral speculation bad.
??
dont worry the speculation was fine actually, I was distracted and not thinking properly.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #1235 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:53 am

Post by Battle Mage »

seriously though, imagine not tracking Nash or Drew.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #1236 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:55 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Did Aristophanes visit anyone N1? I'm assuming not, based on his weird posting so far today.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #1237 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:56 am

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1235, Battle Mage wrote:seriously though, imagine not tracking Nash or Drew.
I didn't want to overlap with other prs
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Post Post #1238 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:57 am

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1236, Battle Mage wrote:Did Aristophanes visit anyone N1?
There's no reason for me to claim that
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Post Post #1239 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:59 am

Post by Battle Mage »

I'll be amazed if we can't make it a clean sweep today if we finish the massclaim quickly, and spend some time going through the voting patterns and interactions.

Key is: no rush.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #1240 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:02 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 1238, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1236, Battle Mage wrote:Did Aristophanes visit anyone N1?
There's no reason for me to claim that
It's a massclaim. No offence, but your claim hasn't told us anything really apart from the fact you are town if you don't get cc'd. At least we can narrow down the pool today with 2 more conftowns (hider and other PR), and then we can actually solve it with maximum information.

You were right to suggest it, but if we're doing it, let's not fk around? :roll:
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #1241 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:04 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Ok so, for clarity,
EVERYONE SHOULD CLAIM IMMEDIATELY
:

Nash
Battle Mage - Vanilla

Aristophanes
Gypyx
Looker
superbowl9
Froppy
Doctor Drew
Dunnstral - Tracker
Confirms BM-town.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #1242 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:06 am

Post by Battle Mage »

if you saw Aristophanes target somebody who wasn't NKed night 1, it would also confirm them as town.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #1243 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:07 am

Post by Battle Mage »

and they aren't the hider, so there's only 1 PR they could even possibly be
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #1244 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:10 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 1221, Dunnstral wrote:Isn't this setup crazy townsided?
town got annihilated last time this setup ran.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #1245 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:12 am

Post by Gypyx »

i'm VT
bottom text
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Post Post #1246 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:14 am

Post by Froppy »

I am the Psychologist

N1: Drew - Either killed that night or VT

N2: (So I was vig hunting since the only mafia would have killed that night) Tux/Dunn
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Post Post #1247 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:15 am

Post by Froppy »

The question whether Pengy would have killed N1 and if so that would clear Doc as well.
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Post Post #1248 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:22 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Massclaim tally


Nash
Battle Mage - Vanilla

Aristophanes
Gypyx - Vanilla

Looker
superbowl9
Froppy - Psychologist

Doctor Drew
Dunnstral - Tracker
Confirms BM-town.[/quote]


Not sure why Froppy is discounting the possibility of Drew as Hider, which is a distinct possibility. Although he could also be scum. Don't think that result tells us much.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #1249 (ISO) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:23 am

Post by Dunnstral »

Alright with that claim it's deducible that Ari didn't target anyone night 1

Drew isn't cleared it's a 50/50 on who would shoot, which we can't figure out

we just need 1 hider result on not me/you/dead person

if not then that's fine, hider doesn't have to claim and we can make a new target list that doesn't include you + battle mage + me so we're not overlapping anything
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