Mini 2150 - Anime SeiyuU-Pick [SHOW'S OVER!]

[Starbuck]

The fluff posting from star as a entry bothers me, it look like he is posting stuff just to post

I'm catching up and reading and annotating things that I find interesting so I can find them when I go back into my ISO later. Don't be this person.

To be fair amended this in my mind after I saw you keep posting. Didn't look at the time stamps and realize you were still posting currently. Thought it was a prior post and that was it

Literally, replaced in on the overnight and caught up today.

[Mikul]

Mikul, I'm not sure if you know but there is a change on site to stop using "lynch" and use a different term like "eliminate" or "yeet" or "execute" or something besides that word.

They said it was optional for the time being. I disagree with this vehemently and actively oppose it but always use it when asked by people in the game. I'll try to use kick as much as I actively can process it for the remainder of this since you asked.

[Mikul]

The fluff posting from star as a entry bothers me, it look like he is posting stuff just to post

I'm catching up and reading and annotating things that I find interesting so I can find them when I go back into my ISO later. Don't be this person.

To be fair amended this in my mind after I saw you keep posting. Didn't look at the time stamps and realize you were still posting currently. Thought it was a prior post and that was it

Literally, replaced in on the overnight and caught up today.

Noted .I'm playing catch up as well. So was assuming all this was past posts. That is where that read came from.

[Starbuck]

So real quick, because I think the multiple timers everywhere messed me up, we have 8 days left in Day 1? I thought it was 16 hours, but I think that was the prod timer.

[Mikul]

So real quick, because I think the multiple timers everywhere messed me up, we have 8 days left in Day 1? I thought it was 16 hours, but I think that was the prod timer.

Prod timer. Mod will likely give an extension with this many replacements

[Tatsuya Kaname]

ANIME SEIYUU-PICK EPISODE 1

VOTECOUNT 1.5

Tuxedo Mask

(4): TrueSoulEnergy, Battle Mage, Panther and Fox,

mastina(L)

mastina (L)

(3): Tuxedo Mask, Mikul, Panzerjager

TheThirteenthJT

(1): Deimos27

Battle Mage

(1): HoldenGolden

Not voting (4)

: TheThirteenthJT, popopopopopopo, Sujimichi, Shiro

13 players remaining, 7 to Vote Out.
Day 1 ends in (expired on 2020-07-25 23:30:00).

DAY 1 AUDITION

AUDITION CLOSED

Winner:

Deimos27

Winner receives (until end of Night 1):

(NIGHT, PASSIVE) You survive ONE Pick/Kick Out attempt.

The next Audition will start in Day 2.

MOD ANNOUNCEMENT

Battle Mage is V/LA until 7/18 (my time).
mastina is in indefinite V/LA. May find a replacement if not heard from her after (expired on 2020-07-22 12:30:00).

Still finding replacements for Tuxedo Mask and popopopopopopo...

Shiro, and Panther and Fox have (expired on 2020-07-17 02:47:38) to get back in the game.

Wow.

[Deimos27]

Mikul, since mastina has established a meta of multiple dozen games fakeclaiming mason

only

as town, on what basis have you decided that this is the game she is breaking against her scum philosophy?

[Mikul]

Mikul, since mastina has established a meta of multiple dozen games fakeclaiming mason

only

as town, on what basis have you decided that this is the game she is breaking against her scum philosophy?

It's nothing about this game specifically but how someone can abuse metas and get a free pass. If you also operate under the assumption that someone "always" plays by their meta, it's very easy to get burned. Especially if they have an established meta and are very aware of this which she is

On the flip side pushing this does a few things

1) shows if she is lying which we can look back in iso and evaluate intent. Maybe she's vanilla baiting a nk etc. The information in iso is very useful

2) it prohibits scum (if she is scum) from having an out later and claiming as her partner If they make it alive later in the game. There may be no way to verify it then

3) also if she is scum If they commit to this Gambit and she flips scum , if someone claims it with her now it ties them together


So the question is do I believe if she's Mason

Absolutely not and that is true whether I look at it from a town mastina or scum mastina perspective

So there is no harm in forcing pressure on her to confirm this is a lie. Because it stops potential fake claims later and also lets us look at why she lied later without having to risk any threat of her partner being killed because she doesn't have one

[Sujimichi]

How long can I expect to see all questions and no reads from your slot, Sujimichi?

Until such a time that I have established reads.

You've been here since the start and there's 16 hrs left. Establish some reads. I just got here and I already did.

There are 8 days left. Please do not tell me when or how I should establish my reads. I have a process that I use.

[Sujimichi]

Hey Sujimichi, can you condense your posts a bit? Also, why 20 questions and no real statement of your thoughts?

Apologies, but no. This is my process.

[Sujimichi]

But I'm still not moving on mastina. I may reconsidering lynching her if it's "her meta" but I really want pressure on the possibility of a second mason. To clarify I likely would still lynch her either way but I want to know if she's lying about that mason claim and I'm not moving off this

Would you walk me through your thought process on why it is beneficial for the second mason (if there is one) to claim at this point?

[Deimos27]

Here's why we don't force mastina to resolve her claim today:

Spoiler:

If town!mastina = True, it's obviously counterproductive to resolve her claim. To confirm it as real requires another mason to out and gives scum two conftown targets for NKs when those conftowns would be more valuable later. To confirm it as fake undermines the purpose of the initial fakeclaim (I think we can reasonably presume that a town!mastina doesn't fakeclaim mason unless she thinks it's +EV, such as via the possibility of drawing an NK as an otherwise useless role). Both of these are

immediate

downsides (they impact the very next NK).

All the value of resolving the claim come from the possibility she might be scum, by sabotaging possible future scum fakeclaim potential. This is a

delayed

upside. I don't buy your argument that her readability would be substantially enhanced by getting to analyse her intent here (I don't consider that this would be a promising method, and there are myriad unrelated ways that you can still try to sort a scum!mastina here), but even that would be an upside that can easily be delayed.

In other words, if we pushed her up tomorrow, for instance, we would gain almost identical upside benefits against a scum!mastina as we would day 1,

and

we attain the bonus EV from a town!mastina claim, since an NK goes through. So the value of resolving her mason claim increases linearly with how many nights we can postpone it, though the returns are diminishing since scum value for fake confirming her also increases.

So even if it was rand whether mastina is town or scum, (the latter being much less likely just by base rate), it would be +EV not to resolve the claim today, and possibly tomorrow too (but I only need to convince you for today). As it stands, however, the claim actually creates a probabilistic town-AI presumption due to the sample size of her meta.

This means that town has a burden to identify compelling reason

independent of her claim

why she is scummy, before we can push her. As long as there is a probabilistic presumption that she is town, to force a resolution on the claim is a highly negative EV play.

This is also why I am pointedly not responding to BM's question to me as to whether I am masons with mastina, because both to confirm and to deny help scum more than they help town.

[Sujimichi]

I really don't want to Lynch tux

Can we please just lynch mastina. I'm perfectly willing to make that sacrifice if no second mason claims and she doesn't reveal her motivations if she is lying.

I really really really don't want to give clemency based on meta and then go for a lynch in tux that is a reach

Why do you have strong feelings on not wanting to eliminate Tuxedo Mask?

[Sujimichi]

But I'm still not moving on mastina. I may reconsidering lynching her if it's "her meta" but I really want pressure on the possibility of a second mason. To clarify I likely would still lynch her either way but I want to know if she's lying about that mason claim and I'm not moving off this

Would you walk me through your thought process on why it is beneficial for the second mason (if there is one) to claim at this point?

Apologies. It looks like you answered this already. I will read that post and comment.

[Deimos27]

Why do you have strong feelings on not wanting to eliminate Tuxedo Mask?

+1

[Deimos27]

So the question is do I believe if she's Mason

Absolutely not and that is true whether I look at it from a town mastina or scum mastina perspective

So there is no harm in forcing pressure on her to confirm this is a lie.

Since you already don't believe her claim, you gain no added value from her confirming it as a lie. You can just play the game under that assumption anyway. But in the situation you're wrong and the claim is confirmed true, it's huge -EV compared to status quo.

[Mikul]

So the question is do I believe if she's Mason

Absolutely not and that is true whether I look at it from a town mastina or scum mastina perspective

So there is no harm in forcing pressure on her to confirm this is a lie.

Since you already don't believe her claim, you gain no added value from her confirming it as a lie. You can just play the game under that assumption anyway. But in the situation you're wrong and the claim is confirmed true, it's huge -EV compared to status quo.

Whether I Believe it's a lie or not doesn't matter. I may not be the person making the choice as to kick her or not. Locking that in as a fact helps everyone evaluate intent later in the game.

I also thinking having a second mason out isn't necessarily horrible. Sure it directs nks but there are ways that can even help town if we expect it.

There is one way I'd be okay with not lynching her and im not even sure she will draw that


As far as tuexedo , I just don't get scummy vibes from him. I also really don't like the wagon. There is a claimed tp that we can focus over him , I have no idea why so many people are so intent to get on him over gut reads.


The one thing that strikes me as odd is he clearly knew that vig was a reaction test. He over dramatizes it in 203 and reads Holden as town in 206. That entire interaction chain was was weird to me but I'm not sure it's kick him weird.

[Panther and Fox]

TheThirteenths post seems pretty ballsys to me on page 13. It makes me want to townread them considering the fact that they were going after a slot that seemed to be getting quite a few townreadis.
Deimos page top on 14 is my exact thoughts on the Suji slot but I wasn't going to say anything about it.

[Panther and Fox]

I think distancing away from the Mastina claim is a good call, we now know that she does this over many games and honestly, it was pretty NAI to begin with. In my eyes it's pretty clear the inthet from Mikul was obvious and coming from a good place. Deimos are you disagreeing with that or?

[Mikul]

So let's say not mastina for giggles.

Why the fuck not panzer ?

[Deimos27]

I think distancing away from the Mastina claim is a good call, we now know that she does this over many games and honestly, it was pretty NAI to begin with. In my eyes it's pretty clear the inthet from Mikul was obvious and coming from a good place. Deimos are you disagreeing with that or?

Nah we are agreed.

[Deimos27]

So let's say not mastina for giggles.

Why the fuck not panzer ?

I'd rather eliminate scum than a 3p that seems harmless, especially if it's 3p that can become strong town. They are a valid default/compromise, though.

[Deimos27]

TheThirteenths post seems pretty ballsys to me on page 13. It makes me want to townread them considering the fact that they were going after a slot that seemed to be getting quite a few townreadis.

I'd be more inclined to agree if he'd put his vote where his mouth is.

[Mikul]

So let's say not mastina for giggles.

Why the fuck not panzer ?

I'd rather eliminate scum than a 3p that seems harmless, especially if it's 3p that can become strong town. They are a valid default/compromise, though.

What makes you think he is not scum trying to eat night actions and results?

[Deimos27]

I can't imagine what scum role that might be, but the possibility certainly exists. Do you have reason to believe the probability is > rand?