Smuggler's Port [Game Over]

[Iconeum]

suppose i shouldn't be talking reads here?

[Titus]

Alisae is the lynch. We are needing your input on the investigations.

[Iconeum]

well like has been stated in game

i'm not the best when it comes to mechanics so i don't know if it's better to investigate in a new pool, or relook into moment + datisi while we focus on dayplay

leaning to reinspecting moment + datisi

[Menalque]

Alisae is the lynch. We are needing your input on the investigations.

Err, incorrect

Alisae is the first guillo candidate. If we now have a majority there, we start voting for a second candidate so that Icon is able to choose between the two to avoid outing the TD by veto-ing a guillo on them

[Menalque]

leaning to reinspecting moment + datisi

I would support adding nk15 but I don’t think it’s entirely necessary

[Menalque]

Moment, I’d like you to go back through and find the posts that you thought were indicative of town!maxwell as of 1017?

[Datisi]

I think 1.9 spews umlaut town tbh

Or at the very least substantially increases the odds he’s town, given that he’s the CW to a scum wagon that was minimum 3 maybe 4 townies

do you think there's scum in {maxwell, Alisae,

NorwegianboyEE

, GuiltyLion}? or, if alisae were to flip town, do you think it's likely maxwell is scum?

~

I mean, I get why Moment/Datisi are LIKELY Town, but also I know that if I were scum, I would absolutely try to hide on a ship with my buddy, expecting the Town to stop after finding one scum there.

I do recognize that this couldn't really have been done intentionally in this instance since Iconeum decided the pool, but if Ico DID happen to find multiple scum there, they could definitely still try to coast off that.

Yeah but I also think they’d be aware that in a game like this there would be the potential for there being strong mechanical reasons to check there again post-scumflip and so I agree with whoever said that they’d expect them to have bussed harder to take advantage of being in that pool with someone they knew would flip red

Unless they were ALSO aware that they'd be expected to bus harder....
Which is getting into WIFOM territory yes, which is why I don't really want to execute any of them today, but really, really want an investigation.

radical, you read like you're confbiasing and tunnelled. like, you're talking about how you'd as scum definitely want to hide on the same ship as your buddy while then immediately saying you know that can't be the case here when we weren't the ones choosing to get on the ship. then followed by "oh but what if they actually weren't bussing FOR THE WIFOM"

do you have any Actual Reasons to think there's scum in me/moment?

~

hi s_s nice to see you

~

hel, i'd appreciate your thoughts on umlaut still. also, what's your read on guiltylion ignoring the post count? and what do you think of his explaination for it?

~

suppose i shouldn't be talking reads here?

you can talk reads of people who are SpEwEd nOt Td
like me
hi

~

leaning to reinspecting moment + datisi

I would support adding nk15 but I don’t think it’s entirely necessary

for what it's worth, considering we get another investigation, today is the last day we can yeet three people into the invest pool and still be able to brute-force a scum execution though if the tea is found, but i̷ ̴d̸o̵n̷'̷t̴ ̴k̶n̸o̵w̵ ̸w̸h̴a̷t̸ ̴t̴o̸ ̷t̷h̶i̵n̷k̷

[Menalque]

do you think there's scum in {maxwell, Alisae, NorwegianboyEE, GuiltyLion}? or, if alisae were to flip town, do you think it's likely maxwell is scum?

I mean yeah that seems quite likely

Idk, I think there’s both scum in (username, Titus, alisae, hel, umlaut, GL, maxwell)

If we reinvest you and moment (and ideally NK15 although I’m not certain that’s needed) and get no tea then that’s confirmed

****

Now, working on the basis that there are two scum in there:

I think username is pretty much cleared from the thing with notscience on D1. I think umlaut being the counterwagon to notscience on D1 is pretty clearing for him too. I think titus is more or less cleared for helping but less so than either of the other two, so we’re down to 4 names.

3 of them were on umlaut, so if ali is the person who we flip today, yes, I think there’s pretty good odds that the final scum is in (maxwell, GL)

And may I just say, I will be so fucking vindicated for D1 if that is the case

[Menalque]

Obviously the implication there is “if ali does flip town” which I could see going either way albeit with a lean to it ending game

[Menalque]

Hel is sort of a wildcard and if they were anyone else (well, maybe not if they were Elsa) then I’d consider them town, but I don’t consider them out of their scumrange given who they are.

[Menalque]

Actually that may be a reason to put them as more town than I currently do and say I think the most likely pool for remaining scum is (ali, maxwell, GL) with a backup pool of (Hel, Titus)

I’d like to check you and moment for sure tonight to check my working and make sure I’m not confbiasing on you both being town given the scumflip in that pool of 3

[Menalque]

My proposed 3 for Ico is
{Datisi, notscience, Umlaut}

Some credit to GL for proposing this before Icon fixed the invest pool on D1 though I guess

[Titus]

well like has been stated in game

i'm not the best when it comes to mechanics so i don't know if it's better to investigate in a new pool, or relook into moment + datisi while we focus on dayplay

leaning to reinspecting moment + datisi

I am a mechanics expert. Redoing Datisi and moment is gamethrowing.

We need to lynch another scum. Therefore, we need to investigate likely scum candidates. Another three confirms and scum have no place to hide. Another guilty and we can flat out stop investigating altogether. It literally wins the game. Plus, we can do it in people who are outed not!TD.

Meanwhile, investigating Datisi and Moment gets us no closer to solving the puzzle. We get two conftowns who no one actually suspects.

[Menalque]

Redoing Datisi and moment is gamethrowing.

Outing the TD is gamethrowing

[Menalque]

Plus, we can do it in people who are outed not!TD.

You keep saying this, who do you think these people are

[Titus]

Redoing Datisi and moment is gamethrowing.

Outing the TD is gamethrowing

That's why I said we can do the investigation in people already outed not!TD. There's several by my count, which is a problem already but for postgame discussion. It's frustrating beyond belief I can say that.

[Menalque]

Because I think exactly no-one in my proposed scum grouping, and incl myself, is outed as not-TD

The only people outed as not TD are the 3 hardclears, icon, moment, datisi

[maxwell]

Redoing Datisi and moment is gamethrowing.

No it's not? This is categorically insane. They are completely safe re-checks. Prematurely writing them off as town is ridiculous when we have to ability to mechanically clear them at no added risk. I think either being scum feels rather unlikely, but what does it hurt? I think I'm willing to take a shot on one new person in the pool, I don't think that hurts too much, but adding Datisi/Moment back

costs nothing to town

.

If you form a coherent townbloc here, I don't think it should be that hard to find a second smuggler, even if you're wrong on one of your reads and there's a deepwolf, you only need to find the partner, who they can't realistically protect.

[Titus]

Plus, we can do it in people who are outed not!TD.

You keep saying this, who do you think these people are

Umlaut, maxwell, and you. NK 15 too but that one is debatable. GuiltyLion probably too. Alisae has but they are the lynch.

[Titus]

Yeah. I can prove all those outs if you make me but I am supposing scum are competent here.

[Titus]

I'm waiting until it's been decided if there will be a third person and if so, who they will be.

I guess maybe you volunteering would mean that you have to be? I mean ngl I thought Icon was softing you as daughter but like if you're the daughter this is now beyond salvageable.

I think Iconeum wanted to make me a fake daughter but that`s just not happening. I looked at the situation and there is just no way that scum will fall for that attempted trick, whilst it continues to divert the attention of the town because there are enough people wanting me to be included, wasting their energy and time on that.

For instance, here on NK15.

[Menalque]

Plus, we can do it in people who are outed not!TD.

You keep saying this, who do you think these people are

Umlaut, maxwell, and you. NK 15 too but that one is debatable. GuiltyLion probably too. Alisae has but they are the lynch.

I don’t think I’m spewed not-TD at all and I don’t think this is helpful. I also disagree that the others are spewed not-TD. I think there’s some stuff that’s arguable but I think some of it is hopefully intentional. I’ve been doing my level best to suggest at some points that I am TD and at others that I’m not; I assume other town are doing the same given that the TD being caught loses the game

[Not Known 15]

well like has been stated in game

i'm not the best when it comes to mechanics so i don't know if it's better to investigate in a new pool, or relook into moment + datisi while we focus on dayplay

leaning to reinspecting moment + datisi

I am a mechanics expert. Redoing Datisi and moment is gamethrowing.

We need to lynch another scum. Therefore, we need to investigate likely scum candidates. Another three confirms and scum have no place to hide. Another guilty and we can flat out stop investigating altogether. It literally wins the game. Plus, we can do it in people who are outed not!TD.

Meanwhile, investigating Datisi and Moment gets us no closer to solving the puzzle. We get two conftowns who no one actually suspects.

BS.
Titus

Alisae

<-lynch
username

Moment

<-investigation
GuiltyLion

Something_Smart

Datisi

<-investigation

Not Known 15

<-investigation
maxwell
Menalque
Hel

Iconeum

Radical Rat

Umlaut

NorwegianboyEE

Notice something?
Not many people left, no?
Only seven people.
If this investigation fails and I am wrong we still have three chances to find scum. One of two scum out of seven people remaining.
If we investigate two outside, and me, the number falls to

five

.
If we then execute one and investigate one if the above failed the number falls to THREE, an inacceptable amount. The next execution would reduce it to TWO.
And if there`s one scum in Datisi/Moment, and I do not get why you are all townreading them, it might very well fall to two.
If Alisae is scum we are giving scum

more

conf Not TD for free.
2 scum out of 7 people with three attempts is still a very good rate, one that does not advance the other scum wincon as much.

[Titus]

NK will be inspected

i've fucking warned you guys about taking my day 1 picks into account
but if NK is insisting about being inspected himself he can fucking have it

Here too

[maxwell]

Yeah. I can prove all those outs if you make me but I am supposing scum are competent here.

I cannot understand why you would ever out those reads, hellaciously antitown even if you're wrong about someone. What good is that supposed to do? Just talk about who you think is scum.