Open 794 Pick Your Power X/Y (finished)

[Grumpy Cat]

The biggest reason to keep the higher positions around are because some of them will self-resolve by virtue of being NKed. The numbers do not lie though.

I don't see colours, I only see in 1s and 0s.

[Hoopla]

Also, italicizing

might

is pretty disingenuous. According to your stats DrDolittle for instance has a 30% chance of being mafia. That puts him at a 70% chance of being a town PR, and probably a strong one as well.

in my eyes, the damage scum can do with vigs/PGO's/redirectors etc. is worse than the value a town PR can yield in slot number 1. because if they're town, they're likely to be blocked/NK'ed/redirected etc.

winning top of the draft actually kinda sucks as town since you're a magnet for interference. whereas scum in top slots can wreak havoc because town's tend to leave them unchecked out of fear.

sometimes you have to step up and execute PR's or PR claims to win games.

[Hoopla]

The biggest reason to keep the higher positions around are because some of them will self-resolve by virtue of being NKed.

^this is decent a counter-argument to leaving top slots alive.

anyways, this is probably enough naval-gazing theory pontification from me, so i'll let others jump in as i read the thread.

[Something_Smart]

Redirector I'll grant, but the thing about scum redirector is they kinda have to claim cop. And then pretty soon you have the issue of, well hold on, why hasn't the claimed cop died yet? And they have to keep giving results and if they're the last scum left those results have to be accurate... and meanwhile the redirector shot is only one-use, and it could end up doing nothing.

With 1-shot vig or 1-shot PGO, sure they can get one kill. Getting more than one kill as PGO is quite unlikely, especially since as you said people tend not to target the higher-ups on the list. But when they have to claim, again they will probably have to claim their real slot, and then it's going to be obvious where the second kill came from.

Roleblocker and jailkeeper I will again grant, but again, if it ever becomes obvious that one of these roles interfered in an action, then the person who claimed the flip side of that role is immediately in trouble. And scum near the top can't just not claim their true slot, because odds are someone down below them tried for it and failed, and if they claim VT then it will, again, probably become apparent.

So I'm really not scared of any of those roles. On the other hand, I am scared of killing a town cop, or a town tracker, or a town doctor, or a town vig, or a town universal backup.

[Something_Smart]

anyways, this is probably enough naval-gazing theory pontification from me

what, you don't like watching boats?

[the worst]

VOTE: Ico

hey talk to me about this? i don't think it was random, and that is a weird and mystical and exciting feeling.

Greeeeeen Cryaoooonnnnnsssss

[Green Crayons]

I already responded. Twice.

[Clover Ebi]

Hm, Grumpy Cat can you talk to me on why you think scum are less likely to take the stance Green Crayons did? He was the first person I was getting some wolf pings on not because of him going after the fake hammer but because I disliked the reasoning/way they worded it.

I get the reasoning of scum not wanting to take the lead, but I feel like that's more player dependant than anything from what I've seen. I also like hat guy who's name I forget at the moment!

[Green Crayons]

I didn’t fake hammer.

Please read the game.

[Clover Ebi]

I'm also not the type of person to put much value in the placement of a slot on the list besides the number thing mostly because that just seems silly to go for. I mean yeah it gets you some towncred but willingly taking lower numbers? Gosh, that has to make you pretty confident. But there's probably not much to go into on this until later on.
pedit: I never said you did?

[Green Crayons]

Green Crayons did? He was the first person I was getting some wolf pings on not because of him going after the fake hammer but because I disliked the reasoning/way they worded it.

[Clover Ebi]

Your entire iso is about going after the dude who faked it and then you changed your vote, it seemed pretty odd to me because you felt really stubborn about it from when I was reading. Then you go on to make another statement about it that makes it so any kind of defense would be seen in a bad late all while still keeping your vote on Ico. It's just odd to me!
pedit: You're reading it wrong

[Green Crayons]

Oh I see.

[Umlaut]

Okay, I'm starting to read

This is going to be one of those games that hits page 80 halfway through day 1 and I never quite catch up, isn't it

[the worst]

Am I gonna have to bring up the

duck

dragon

elephant in the room regarding Hoopla's plan?

The people toward the top of the list are more likely to have PR's. And, uh, PR's are how you win games.

wait literally anyone was taking her plan seriously?

[the worst]

Is this gonna be a meme game cause I'm ok with it being a meme game

you always bring the meme

[Green Crayons]

Certainly hope not.

[Green Crayons]

an example of how we should use number analysis;

- gypyx is 11th in the draft (a low frequency slot for scum)
- he also chose 11 (a low frequency selection for scum)
- he is also on a doubled up number (an average frequency outcome for scum)

i'd want to be quite confident gypyx is much more likely scum than random if we're to wagon there.

I mean this is fine but don’t know if she was ever really saying let’s elim from top down.

[the worst]

Am I gonna have to bring up the

duck

dragon

elephant in the room regarding Hoopla's plan?

The people toward the top of the list are more likely to have PR's. And, uh, PR's are how you win games.

this post feels fake.

VOTE: Something_Smart

I could think of like 3 reasons to vote ss for that post and it feeling fake is probably directly opposite to all of them.

[the worst]

VOTE: iamausername

why did you vote username here

[the worst]

hoopla, you better be town this game. I'm sleeping GreyIce if you're scum.

How did you know I was greyice? wow.

[the worst]

I dnt like DrDolittle a.k.a. Doc from now on
VOTE: DrDolittle

This is a fairly poor choice imo
is it a scummy choice? meh

[the worst]

i'm getting townpings from ico

no

s_s and drd are my "my gut is telling me this person is town but i have no reasoning to back it up with" reads

Same

i have a sorta scumread that i'm gonna sit on for a bit more

is it username or grumplez

[the worst]

S_S, Gypyx, Green Crayons, Clover town.

elaborate on green and especially clover?

ohey green I actually liked

[the worst]

Green Crayons accurately ascertained Gypyx was faking a reaction after being fakehammered. Scum are less likely to take that accusatory route given they have no reason to think town!Gypyx is lying there, and no one else had seen his reaction as fake.

Gypyx's response was.......very cheesy but yeah I did like that Green was the first person to call this out