Open 791 | Forest Fire | Game Over

[Farren]

MT / Ydrasse:

Votes:

Interactions: MT mentions Ydrasse is great at scum, 82. Triggers a bit of mechanical talk. One question from MT to Ydrasse in 153, immediate answer in 154 on a pedit. Feels ... genuine, but brief.

Reads: 179, Ydrasse has a slight TR on MT. 269, MT describes Ydrasse as "could get excited about being town, but not there yet", or words to that effect. Seems fundamentally equivalent to Ydrasse's read on MT. 283: Ydrasse more emphatic about the TR on MT, cites open-mindedness. 499: MT puts Ydrasse "below the Pine line" - although mentions that Pine should be lower, but put Pine in the middle as a joke, while Ydrasse is one step below Pine. So call that ... nullish / mixed / whatever, it's pretty similar to the last one in terms of positioning. 506: MT mentions she'll need to interact with Ydrasse more. Not really a read per se, but I'm putting it here. 642, MT speculates on comfortable Ydrasse possibly being Town|Ydrasse. 719: MT still thinking about Ydrasse. No interactions here, but looking at timestamps makes this NAI completely. 784: indicates an interest in eliminating Ydrasse, but again reiterates wanting to re-read. 788: the Ydrasse meta-dive. Multi-quotes from this game, links to three other games with details. Clearly a lot of work put into that. About 45 minutes between 784 and 788 being posted.

Which is a point of concern - not necessarily s/s indicative specifically, but the speed with which that was built makes me think it could have been pre-planned. Which could have been the result of drafting into a Notes PT, but 784 makes it sound like MT was starting from scratch.

Okay, stopping here for a sanity check. I don't think I could do that in 45 minutes. But I have an overactive filter at times, and any sort of analysis post like that triggers it. My sense of time could be off. Is it plausible that town|MT comes up with 788 in 45 minutes?

[Bell]

MT herself says that effort is scum indicative for her (in another completed game). But if she's literally thinking what I'm thinking and then looking another step ahead, she might as well be town for all the difference it makes.
Maybe she'll slip up later. But she's doing very solid so far.

[Farren]

"Might as well be town" would be the most important category of scum to take out. The hardest to find, and the ones capable of doing the most damage. All the more reason to take a look at what might be a slip now.

[Bell]

How earnest, I admire that. So I guess you do want me to go back and read, even though MT is kinda bussing her partner (or got on this wagon late).
Do you want to keep focusing on associations or would you like to focus on guiltyLion and making sure he's scum/town? I've never been particularly great at finding scum partners pre-flip.

[Bell]

Though, I feel that's a little unfair when I have been reading and rereading and metaing her etc.
Though maybe I think you're accusing me of a lack of effort when you aren't.

[Farren]

I figure watching GL's reaction to being at E-1 will provide some insight on his alignment.

Until then, this is helping me look at things from a different perspective - and seeing some things I missed earlier. Like this, for example.

Please take a look at those two posts - mostly the big one; the short one just establishes the timeframe.

PEdit: Nope. But I definitely am getting a sense of some snark creeping into your tone, as well as some dismissiveness.

[Bell]

Nah, I admire earnestness. I can be sarcastic, so when a genuine compliment comes through it gets muddled sometimes.
Sure I'll read it.

[Bell]

Why not directly ask MT to clear up these questions?
To my knowledge MT has not done a META exclusive scum read on her partner before.

It terms of plausibility? I'm not sure she could read those games, iso those games, get an understanding of those games quote those games and write all that in exactly 45 minutes.
She's self aware enough to know that level of effort makes her look town which is in part why she said she efforts as scum and that's alignment indicative for her. In terms of her angle whether she's being selfless enough or trying to look town hard enough and comparing it to this game. What I can immediately share with you is that she always spoiler tags her stuff when it gets too big.

I think some of the confidence in that meta read is a little strange in how she grasps it but I expect it may just be because she knows the alignment going forward and she's focusing on what's important to HER about Ydrasse. I think you could reach these conclusions she made easily enough even if she wasn't inside this game in particular, it's a bubble space because she's interpreting games that have already happened in the same way someone might comment on a movie, what I mean by this is that she absolutely 100% can have genuine town opinions and it's about whether she manipulated her findings or felt she needed to censor them because, if Ydrasse isn't her partner what if my case makes her look super town as she actually is and I unlock her into obv town to the rest of the town? Or the opposite and she shows her partner to be scum.

Er. I don't know? Those questions are really hard for me to answer.

[Farren]

Asking directly isn't going to give me any meaningful response, unless I think I can accurately tell if she's lying when she answers. In this case, I don't. Plus in this case, I will be surprised if she doesn't comment on this regardless.

As far as the implications of: if it's scum|MT that pre-planned that post for nefarious reasons, what can we glean of Ydrasse? Looking at that time window, I don't think Ydrasse was under a great deal of pressure right then, so it's not a case of "scum|MT had an urgent need to defend scum|Ydrasse." Staging to try to justify a townread on a scumpartner is the main reason I can think of that would fit into an s/s scenario. If there's nothing to do it with in this game, drawing on past games is one way that sounds better than just "tone" or similar. Pocketing / general towncred for s/t - except that maybe conflicts given what you said about MT saying that sort of thing is a scumtell? At least the general towncred motive. Trying to establish associatives with not-partners - that'd be some pretty far thinking given that MT hasn't really been in any serious pressure situations yet, let alone by that point. I don't get a sense of that level of ... calculation from MT, which I think would be required here - unless her partner gives her the idea. But in that case we'd still be looking at s/t, so forget about that.

Staging seems more likely. So I'd say lean s/s if it's fake.

[Bell]

While reading, I don't know why she would share some parts of the information of her analysis of Ydrasse. She notes that melo/elo Ydrasse cares a lot more as town, while as scum she tends to care all the time. Part of the formula (scum generalized anxiety) is there and can be seen at the time. But she revealed AI information for elo-melo that would be useful if Ydrasse wasn't aware of it .I also don't think she weighed how self-aware Ydrasse is about what is about AI meta information on her. But I rarely am that thoughtful either. Just due to time constraints, difficulty planning, confidence in interpreting what I'm seeing from the plan etc.

[Morning Tweet]

Why not directly ask MT to clear up these questions?
To my knowledge MT has not done a META exclusive scum read on her partner before.

Hard ignored my partner nn in my newbie game, soft bussed Chemist in 2132 (but voted elsewhere), forced Adorable into a dichotomy with another player in 2132 (had to make up reasons to scumread the other person, bob, while suppressing reasons to scumread Adorable), placed ABR into PoE in Zoey's (but spent a majority of my time being paranoid of Flavour).

I'd say i have a tendency to be nervous and careful about how i interact with my partner. I don't like to actively townread them interestingly enough

It terms of plausibility? I'm not sure she could read those games, iso those games, get an understanding of those games quote those games and write all that in exactly 45 minutes.
She's self aware enough to know that level of effort makes her look town which is in part why she said she efforts as scum and that's alignment indicative for her. In terms of her angle whether she's being selfless enough or trying to look town hard enough and comparing it to this game. What I can immediately share with you is that she always spoiler tags her stuff when it gets too big.

That post is not in my notes. I did it entirely in thread

I hadn't read newbie 2012 or 2014, but I had read a bit of the ending to secrets of anuket topaz prior.

This is true with regards to spoilers, I feel bad clogging the thread. Even though I do want people to read my posts

I think some of the confidence in that meta read is a little strange in how she grasps it but I expect it may just be because she knows the alignment going forward and she's focusing on what's important to HER about Ydrasse. I think you could reach these conclusions she made easily enough even if she wasn't inside this game in particular, it's a bubble space because she's interpreting games that have already happened in the same way someone might comment on a movie, what I mean by this is that she absolutely 100% can have genuine town opinions and it's about whether she manipulated her findings or felt she needed to censor them because, if Ydrasse isn't her partner what if my case makes her look super town as she actually is and I unlock her into obv town to the rest of the town? Or the opposite and she shows her partner to be scum.

Er. I don't know? Those questions are really hard for me to answer.

Hm hm hm hard to say whether or not I make the case as scum. I think probably not if Ydrasse is my partner, but if she isn't, I could see doing it as an effort towncred grab. There's a chance maybe i think "There's no way they think I hard defend Ydrasse as her partner" and do it anyway but I feel like i'd probably talk myself out of it

What i can say is if Ydrasse were my partner I'd have spent a huuge amount of time slaving over it to make sure it's without flaw. I am very conscious of how i post as scum. That being said I don't think 45 minutes is really that short

[Morning Tweet]

I don't get a sense of that level of ... calculation from MT, which I think would be required here - unless her partner gives her the idea. But in that case we'd still be looking at s/t, so forget about that.

Scum couldn't talk to each other til N1

[Dunnstral]

I feel like I’m not gonna be very useful going forward :/

You're conftown. Please don't willingly waste that.

Dunnstral, that goes to you too.

ohhhh do I have a feeling you'll be disappointed

I didn't have strong reads on day 1, if I were to point to someone it would be little more than guessing based on tone at this point

[Farren]

I don't get a sense of that level of ... calculation from MT, which I think would be required here - unless her partner gives her the idea. But in that case we'd still be looking at s/t, so forget about that.

Scum couldn't talk to each other til N1

That would be an even better reason to forget about that particular scenario.

[Farren]

I didn't have strong reads on day 1, if I were to point to someone it would be little more than guessing based on tone at this point

Wasn't addressing the past; just the future.

And it might be little more than guessing based on tone, but at least it's guessing based on tone that we'd know is made in good faith. Every little bit helps.

[Morning Tweet]

While reading, I don't know why she would share some parts of the information of her analysis of Ydrasse. She notes that melo/elo Ydrasse cares a lot more as town, while as scum she tends to care all the time. Part of the formula (scum generalized anxiety) is there and can be seen at the time. But she revealed AI information for elo-melo that would be useful if Ydrasse wasn't aware of it .I also don't think she weighed how self-aware Ydrasse is about what is about AI meta information on her. But I rarely am that thoughtful either. Just due to time constraints, difficulty planning, confidence in interpreting what I'm seeing from the plan etc.

I think your summary is correct. I believe my theory was "Ydrasse switches on when she feels her elimination will cause her team to lose". I arrived to that conclusion from noticing she tryharded since the very beginning as scum, but as town in Anuket, she tryharded like mad in Xylo

I think she would probably tryhard in Xylo as both alignments, so therefore it doesn't really matter if I tell her I'm aware of that. I'm judging her based on early play which has already occured, so again i'm unsure what I would gain from hiding my observation of her late play. I gain more using it as a piece of evidence for my theory i would think

[GuiltyLion]

UNVOTE:

the purpose of my tea leaves vote was to see whether there'd be resistance or joining from slots like Isis/Ydrasse/MT, but tea leaves kinda forced my hand by getting defensive about it

if Tea Leaves is town that means there's absolutely 100% a scum in Ydrasse/Isis. Both pushing TL yesterday up through deadline then completely drop it to vote me today instead

[GuiltyLion]

I figure watching GL's reaction to being at E-1 will provide some insight on his alignment.

how do you figure?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: guiltylion

ty for the well wishes today guys <3

y'all seriously don't have any issues with this E-1?

Ydrasse was also an E-1 wagon yesterday at crunch time and a CW to Dunn

now she drops an E-1 on me and nobody even flinches, that kinda hurts to be honest

[GuiltyLion]

GuiltyLion doesn't make me feel anything even when he's active tho

? I didn't get this sense from you yesterday.

Why am I scum to you here? Are you town reading all of TL/Ydrasse/Farren?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Ydrasse

literally no content on D1, no content today. there's only reason I'm being wagoned instead of her is because I don't mince words and I've been stepping on toes by actually trying to play the game

[GuiltyLion]

I think MT/Bell are town

the gamestate points to TL town, I think. I doubt her partner would have voted with her on Dunn/Gamma wagons, and I think it's suspicious that no one seems interested in voting her today despite her being a leading wagon for most of D1, especially since I didn't push her at all yesterday but I opened with voting her today. That points to scum saving her for a future mis-elimination, especially now if/when I'm chopped

Farren... idk. I don't like him angling to potentially vote me "based off my reaction" to E-1

Isis/Ydrasse has a scum in it, if not both. I think in hindsight Menalque's early game may have been distancing, and I don't think these two have substantially interacted since.

[GuiltyLion]

the one oddity about Isis/Ydrasse is both voting TL

but I think Ydrasse's TL vote was a survival vote, she was careful not to actually scum read TL at any point, instead giving that nonsense of "isn't as town as others" in 1178

[GuiltyLion]

GuiltyLion's point on Ydrasse might not be good, but I believe he believes he's good, and his stock goes up.
VOTE: Dunn
It's a little scummy for him to complain about just scumbinning all the lurkers although he'd maybe do that as town too. Dunn is kind of a lower quality d1 selection than an average one but lots of people seem townish.
I think he's slightly more likely to post a little less as scum, I don't know if he believes that about himself.

this also stands out

I scumread Ydrasse genuinely, so I'm town
even though my read is wrong because Ydrasse is town

D2 now suddenly I'm a scum suspect, no evolution of Ydrasse read at any point

[Farren]

Farren... idk. I don't like him angling to potentially vote me "based off my reaction" to E-1

I figure watching GL's reaction to being at E-1 will provide some insight on his alignment.

You're under pressure. You're going to react to that pressure. Reaction to pressure can be AI.

While I didn't explicitly say it, yes, voting for you is a possibility if I think your reaction is bad enough.

Are you explicitly calling me out as scummy here, or is this just annoyance at being at E-1?