Newbie 2027 | Doggos | Town Win

[Frogsterking]

There were four sources I used for BW vs BW which is a part of a method for scum hunting called "Vote Count Analysis". The links below may not all work and might have to be copy + pasted into the web browser :

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... unting#VCA
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... _VCA_Guide
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=VCA

Also a discussion topic on the forums here:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=70951

If you can't get these links to work (taking you to separate pages each) I'll do some more fanangling.

99% of my experience playing this game comes from a single website, EpicMafia (also the same website shelly is from) which is a live-chat format of this game, where vote count analysis is not commonly applied to this level of depth because behavioral scum tells are more reliable, so I'm learning about this topic as well.

The gist of it is that Nora's confusion/confliction about which side to hammer is a town tell and assuming shelly flips scum then Growlithe's refusal to take part is also a town tell. Had the hammer been town vs town then Growlithe's irreverant behavior would have been a scum tell instead because it's an indicator he knew result would not matter.

[Noraa]

OH GOD. I already see my brain's fate. oh gosh ok I'll read them after I'm done with my hw otherwise I ain't even gonna be able to finish this hw
T^T thanks for pointing out I'm indecisive as fuck
I thought everyone had agreed that I was being stupid in thinking they were both town so then I was like fine it does make sense. So then I switched to believing one was town and one was scum. Then it logically made sense that shelly had to be scum but then ur voting for mundivore even tho uk shelly is scum so I'm like T^T confused af as to how u think.
idk idk I seriously have no idea. but now that plus flipped green, I have no choice but to believe she is scum.....

[Mundivore]

VC DAY 1 FINAL

shellyc (3)

- PlusJOYED, Redados, EchoVision

PlusJOYED (5)

- shellyc, Mundivore, 72offsuit, Frogsterking, Noraa

Noraa (1)

- Sirius9121

Redados (1)

- Noraa

With 9 unfortunate souls alive, you need 5 votes to eliminate.

PlusJOYED has been eliminated!

Who was voting for Shelly? It was PlusJOYED, Redados, and EchoVision. I'm feeling like all those guys are town. In fact I am 100% without a doubt sure.

Who was not voting for Shelly? It was Mundivore, Shelly, 72offsuit, Frogsterking, Noraa, and Sirius9121. I feel like the scum lies in this set of players.

We can pack it up guys, I did it! I solved the game! I love voting analysis. Very useful.

lmao

Excellent deduction

Honestly, I'm just flabbergasted that Shelly did that. It feels very throw, I can't imagine a situation that outing yourself as scum day one is worth one miselimination...

VOTE: Mundivore

Here's to solidifying my FoS with a vote.

I feel that's a pretty reasonable suspicion to have, given the way I was pushing for a elim on a townie last round, but I'd appreciate it if you withdraw your vote until we take care of shelly. If one more townie votes, scum could quickhammer me, which I'd not be too happy with. And while in theory that would lead to town victory (since y'all would know who's who) this has already been a very weird game and I'd rather not risk it.

Would anyone have any complaints if I put down my vote on Shelly? I don't know how much we can glean from this day, and I'd like the ratio of townies to scum to improve before we spend too much time thinking—two scum votes are a lot more dangerous than one, especially when one of those scum votes is completely divulged of any responsibility to look town.

[shellyc]

prodge

[shellyc]

VOTE: Shellyc

[shellyc]

time to spam the thread

[shellyc]

Honestly, I'm just flabbergasted that Shelly did that. It feels very throw, I can't imagine a situation that outing yourself as scum day one is worth one miselimination...

when I get to dead thread I'll explain but not now nah

[Mundivore]

There were four sources I used for BW vs BW which is a part of a method for scum hunting called "Vote Count Analysis". The links below may not all work and might have to be copy + pasted into the web browser :

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... unting#VCA
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... _VCA_Guide
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=VCA

Also a discussion topic on the forums here:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=70951

If you can't get these links to work (taking you to separate pages each) I'll do some more fanangling.

99% of my experience playing this game comes from a single website, EpicMafia (also the same website shelly is from) which is a live-chat format of this game, where vote count analysis is not commonly applied to this level of depth because behavioral scum tells are more reliable, so I'm learning about this topic as well.

The gist of it is that Nora's confusion/confliction about which side to hammer is a town tell and assuming shelly flips scum then Growlithe's refusal to take part is also a town tell. Had the hammer been town vs town then Growlithe's irreverant behavior would have been a scum tell instead because it's an indicator he knew result would not matter.

I'm not sure about Sirius' irreverence being a town tell in this case. Sirius seems to be irreverent kind of just period.

I actually thought about this game quite a bit during the night. I came to the conclusion that Mundivore is scum, and if not him then 72offsuit. I'm actually pleased with the night results as well, even though Echo died who was one of my strongest town reads, he was also my read for the PR, so the fact he flipped VT is a bit of silver lining for me. I think his death is also incriminating for Mundi, who Echo pushed yesterday.

I'd be curious to hear your cases for these scumreads, particularly on 72.

[shellyc]

I won't let you use these 6 days for scumhunting

[Mundivore]

VOTE: Shellyc

Also, Shelly is at E-1, I think?

Would anyone have any complaints if I put down my vote on Shelly? I don't know how much we can glean from this day, and I'd like the ratio of townies to scum to improve before we spend too much time thinking—two scum votes are a lot more dangerous than one, especially when one of those scum votes is completely divulged of any responsibility to look town.

In retrospect, this kind of means 'intent to hammer' since we all know Shelly is scum. I don't intend to hammer yet, we should make sure everyone checks in at least once so that if anyone has good insights, we get to see them before night.

[shellyc]

It's not the worst gambit ever. it paid off

[shellyc]

have you considered that there was a mod mistake and plus was actually scum?

[shellyc]

I TR everyone in the game at the moment

[Mundivore]

[shellyc]

time to find some of my own gifs

PRs admit yourselves now!

[Redados]

UNVOTE

[shellyc]

do you realise the longer you leave me up the longer I have to play for scum

[Noraa]

Alright I was thinking about how frog voted while I was eating and here's what I think now: Since plus is tfn, we are in column b of the chart thingie. That means that we have a mafia goon and a mafia roleblocker. Shelly outed scum d1. Imo that means she is a mafia goon. So I will, along with frog, attempt to find the mafia roleblocker. I would like to put some pressure on Mundivore for pushing me towards a plus lim. VOTE: Mundivore

Also would like to point out that this post sounded so so fancy imo so lol if ur gonna reply to this post, it would be much appreciated if u noted how smancy and SE it sounds

[shellyc]

hi SE

why are you suddenly TR-ing frog?

[Mundivore]

Alright I was thinking about how frog voted while I was eating and here's what I think now: Since plus is tfn, we are in column b of the chart thingie. That means that we have a mafia goon and a mafia roleblocker. Shelly outed scum d1. Imo that means she is a mafia goon. So I will, along with frog, attempt to find the mafia roleblocker. I would like to put some pressure on Mundivore for pushing me towards a plus lim. VOTE: Mundivore

I pressured you to make a kill because we had hours left on the deadline for a day and I didn't want to throw it away. Also, most of what you said here is totally nonrelevant? It's also not even correct, there's a rolecop, not a roleblocker. IDK why you're buddying up to Frog so hard, but it's making me all kinds of uncomfortable.

I'm still sus of you from Day 1, and this doesn't help your case. Scum bandwagon here could totally kill a townie. I don't agree with Frog's statement that your waffling is indicative of towniness—deliberating extra long to eventually end up on the townie side of a scum-versus-town vote-off feels extra scum to me, not less scum.

And I stg if I get hammered day 2 when we have confirmed scum I will personally call each of you a clown in the next game we play together (only once tho I won't hold a grudge)

VOTE: shellyc

because SOMEONE has to vote for the confirmed scum

[shellyc]

I'll be in dead chat

remember I did that all for a reason

[Sirius9121]

Noraa
wanna put down the things yesterday and scumhunt together?
you might not be scum, after all.

[72offsuit]

Alright I was thinking about how frog voted while I was eating and here's what I think now: Since plus is tfn, we are in column b of the chart thingie. That means that we have a mafia goon and a mafia roleblocker. Shelly outed scum d1. Imo that means she is a mafia goon. So I will, along with frog, attempt to find the mafia roleblocker. I would like to put some pressure on Mundivore for pushing me towards a plus lim. VOTE: Mundivore

Also would like to point out that this post sounded so so fancy imo so lol if ur gonna reply to this post, it would be much appreciated if u noted how smancy and SE it sounds

TFN means we are in a setup with a roleCOP, not a roleBLoCKER.

[Noraa]

Alright I was thinking about how frog voted while I was eating and here's what I think now: Since plus is tfn, we are in column b of the chart thingie. That means that we have a mafia goon and a mafia roleblocker. Shelly outed scum d1. Imo that means she is a mafia goon. So I will, along with frog, attempt to find the mafia roleblocker. I would like to put some pressure on Mundivore for pushing me towards a plus lim. VOTE: Mundivore

I pressured you to make a kill because we had hours left on the deadline for a day and I didn't want to throw it away. Also, most of what you said here is totally nonrelevant? It's also not even correct, there's a rolecop, not a roleblocker. IDK why you're buddying up to Frog so hard, but it's making me all kinds of uncomfortable.

I'm still sus of you from Day 1, and this doesn't help your case. Scum bandwagon here could totally kill a townie. I don't agree with Frog's statement that your waffling is indicative of towniness—deliberating extra long to eventually end up on the townie side of a scum-versus-town vote-off feels extra scum to me, not less scum.

And I stg if I get hammered day 2 when we have confirmed scum I will personally call each of you a clown in the next game we play together (only once tho I won't hold a grudge)

VOTE: shellyc

because SOMEONE has to vote for the confirmed scum

But I think my logic is good. It makes sense to me. ur low-key threatening me with that last sentence. I don't like it and plus as far as I'm concerned, u kept pushing for plus' lim and u pushed other people to join u, which 100% is a scumtell imo. Also how's my info not correct? I checked the chart thingie in post 3

[72offsuit]

@shelly - just some feedback - im really not sure why you fake claimed. Plus was heavily scumread, there wasnt rly a need to sac urself. TFN is also a rly weak PR.

Pretty sure frog wudnt agree to shelly saccing herself, in scum pt

Mundi is probs scum.

VOTE: Shellyc