Open 791 | Forest Fire | Game Over

[Isis]

i actually pretty rarely pressure people to read them, and it follows that if I were scum I wouldn't be trying to emulate a towngame that votes people for pressure

i am townreading everyone and trying to place a vote on someone who might be scum right now and feeling the least doubtful about you. for now. that is what I'm doing. I wouldn't call it pressure.

[tea leaves]

Moooooooooorning, do you believe Bell's reasons for switching off Ydrasse? He's already explained everything the best he can, so I want to hear a stance from you on it.

[Bell]

i actually pretty rarely pressure people to read them, and it follows that if I were scum I wouldn't be trying to emulate a towngame that votes people for pressure

i am townreading everyone and trying to place a vote on someone who might be scum right now and feeling the least doubtful about you. for now. that is what I'm doing. I wouldn't call it pressure.

There’s a town case for pretty much every player remaining.

[Bell]

2/2 scum in (tea, mt, isis, bell, farren) feels like something i could never solve but that's more of a personal take

Weird.

because he's pre-emptively trying to tie himself to you + waste time for d3/d4

i think that the most reasonable thing to assume is that when i'm flipped (town), gl becomes tomorrow's elim based on the general poe. it's better to try and obfuscate who his partner is at this point rather than fight his elim tomorrow; he still will, i'm sure, but he's making it a point now to try and claw at whatever he can to help his partner who's endgaming over him.

also the reason i said i don't wanna be flipped today is because i would rather take away the "safety cushion", so to speak, that the scum have currently in that: while they know gl will most likely go down tmrw, if they get me elimmed today they have a free night to prime someone knowing that there will be at least 1 partner alive to ignite the following night. basically it's a free kill for them so long as dunn doesn't manage to protect who they're targetting.

[Morning Tweet]

i think that the most reasonable thing to assume is that

when i'm flipped (town)

, gl becomes tomorrow's elim based on the general poe.

lol i just noticed this

This isn't related to the current game at all but i do find it kind of funny she clarified that she flips town

[Morning Tweet]

Moooooooooorning, do you believe Bell's reasons for switching off Ydrasse? He's already explained everything the best he can, so I want to hear a stance from you on it.

im unsure what to make of the response below

Alright, so -- Bell. You were very hard onto Ydrasse D1, until the end where you waffled onto Gamma, saying that your new opinion was Gamma>Ydrasse>tea to be killed

However, on the next day, you proceeded to vote for me, and then GL.

What made you change your mind on Ydrasse to the point where you dropped her off completely until the hammer vote (Where you specifically call attention to how your initial read on Ydrasse was to scumread her)?

i'm sure the answer is probably in your ISO but i dont have the time atm

this is still what im wondering

In general, I don’t go back to old wagons day 2 after day 1. It’s to gather more information about different players to create further associations. If we mess up again.

I'm not sure this really make sense, if Ydrasse was your top scumread, why should the day change matter?

[Bell]

*breaks out the challk*

A few of bell’s town beliefs(i’ve really already addressed some of my scum beliefs).

1. Votes can be used for pressure to get a better read or attempt to get a better read on a player or force them to reveal more information to hopefully make an informed decision. If you have suspicions, vote and see where it leads! If you have doubts try to get clarity through gathering more information.
2. You can ~probably~ determine the difference between a town and scum player if you look at the data with the correct lense.
3. Datadatadata.

D1: Bell suspects Ydrasse > votes her and tries to understand her. Engages with others, about her. > bell makes the wrong decision and unvotes ydrasse to pursue a miselimination on gamma instead.

A: This is a common consequence to how I use my vote. If you vote people you merely suspect for something you will end up changing your mind a lot and often because of your focus end up being the person that unvotes. Because I was the one with the suspicions, the wagon naturally collapsed when I made up my mind. GL pointed out that the wagon and the attention on ydrasse would not have existed without me coming in.

D 1-2. bell reads morning tweet meta. > Bell suspects her > bell votes her and questions her. > Bell. makes another decision.
A. Same thing as ydrasse approach. Bottom 3 reads at the time were MT, Ydrasse, farren. GL moved up after reshuffling with thinking MT is town etc.


You can see this in past games too, I think. This doesn’t always mean my vote is on those I suspect, sometimes I really do think they’re scum. But I don’t ever really stop engaging with my reads and this causes a lot of fluctuations.

If you apply this lense you should be able to understand me.

[Bell]

Mostly though, you should just listen when I say I don’t replace in and bus my partner. Unless there are some very good reasons to do so.

[Isis]

do you have a scumgame that would convince me you're bus-averse?

[Bell]

isis, could you word that question differently.
I’m not bus adverse, but there needs to be some advantage and i’m cautious about it when I do.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=83774

^ i bussed both partners in this game.
But read the mafia PT.

[Bell]

There are a lot of attempts to discuss and engage. To make sure I didn’t do something they wouldn’t respond well to.
I even messed up a little on starbuck by questioning them and it made them look mildly scummy.

In the PT I need to mention there are two posts out of context that will lead to a visceral reaction.
But I need to be clear there, both of those don’t apply to this game because, not scum reading them would have gone against the flow of the game. Whereas here I went counter to it.

[Dunnstral]

Ydrasse assumes no cc because she knows I'm town

Does she, though, in a no day-talk setup? At least, if her partner is last in line to claim and could theoretically counterclaim?

That'd be another piece of evidence that it's not Ydrasse|GL. If GL is her partner, she can't know there's no counterclaim coming even though she knows Dunnstral's town. The only way she knows there's no cc coming is if GL is Town as well.

What do you mean? She would know who her partner is regardless of daytalk, right? So she'd know I was town, and wouldn't expect me to be fake claiming

[tea leaves]

2281 is fine on theory and all, but are you suggesting you were pressuring Ydrasse without suspecting her? Because that isn't true at all from all the reasons you were dishing out, and so I'm unsure what you're trying to prove from that post. I think you were distancing while she was reasonably townread and then backed off without any given reasoning on why when it looked like her launch might actually go through.

I'm surprised Morning is still voting for me tbh

[tea leaves]

isis, could you word that question differently.
I’m not bus adverse, but there needs to be some advantage and i’m cautious about it when I do.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=83774

^ i bussed both partners in this game.
But read the mafia PT.

Uh, your best example for you being bus averse is linking a game where you bussed both your partners? I'm not going to read the whole mafia PT so you could you explain why it helps your case?

[Bell]

isis, could you word that question differently.
I’m not bus adverse, but there needs to be some advantage and i’m cautious about it when I do.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=83774

^ i bussed both partners in this game.
But read the mafia PT.

Uh, your best example for you being bus averse is linking a game where you bussed both your partners? I'm not going to read the whole mafia PT so you could you explain why it helps your case?

Maybe don’t quote me if the quote contains “not bus averse”
When accusing me of being bus averse.

I’ve differentiated between what I think is a smart bus and what I think isn’t.

@2281: are you intentionally trying to make me angry? I said i pressure people who I suspect of being scum and then make a decision and this creates a common situation. You’ve misrepresented and twisted my words repeatedly and i’m honestly not sure what you’re doing that for if you’re town.

[Isis]

VOTE: tea

[Isis]

VOTE: Bell
I think tea is more likely to flip scum, but bell is more likely to be covered in gasoline and function as a free elim

[tea leaves]

I see. I got averse and averses mixed up.

[Bell]

VOTE: Bell
I think tea is more likely to flip scum, but bell is more likely to be covered in gasoline and function as a free elim

I almost said that was absolutely terrible reasoning and then I thought about it and you know.
You kind of have a point. But like, what if it’s not me, but farren.

[tea leaves]

Hobbes and I definitely aren't doused.

Any 2 in [Isis, Bell, Morning, Farren] I could see? Isis slightly less likely because she was being FoSed by many EoD yesterday.

[Isis]

if it's farren i tar and feather myself and run through the town square as an embarassing spectacle to all

[Bell]

It’s not even that unlikely that’s the case.
He was more confident and adamant about ydrasse when it mattered.
Unless you misinterpreted me and you thought I meant that farren was scum.

[Bell]

Averses isn’t even a word tealeaves.

[tea leaves]

I thought you were saying you wouldn't enter the game bussing Ydrasse because you're bus averse, and then linked a game showing you're bus averse, but it's actually a game where you bussed two partners. I realised my error afterwards.

[Bell]

I didn’t enter the game and bus my partners in that game either. I pushed a miselimination first because my partners weren’t really responding to my requests about how they would prefer I interact with them. Plus the first miselimination was fairly easy.