Mini Normal 2159 | Cinder Block Mafia | Game Over!

[Tayl0r Swift]

im ready to lunch raya and move on to day 3.

[GeorgeBailey]

Votecount 2.7

Raya36(4)

~ RCEnigma(37), Tayl0r Swift(46), Nosferatu(17), WaltertheDunce10(21)

RCEnigma(3)

~ Raya36(43), geraintm(24), Looker(16)

callforjudgement(2)

~ Frogsterking(33), ItalianoVD(54)

Looker(1)

~ Gamma Emerald(28)

ItalianoVD(1)

~ callforjudgement(63)


Not Voting (0):

With 11 alive it takes 6 to eliminate.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-22 17:44:55)

[callforjudgement]

Raya and cfj pushing the same angle still.

Cfj I asked about Shelly being bussed because I would find it difficult to believe with a wagon already leading on scum!Italiano, with Shelly involved -- would then designate Shelly as the buss and have her lurk out.

Also the spearheads of both the cfj wagon and Italiano wagon were mostly present on the Shelly wagon. It makes the walter wagon look a ton worse in retrospect. I mean, worse than it did in being the counterwagon to a scum flip.

Add in the night kill, likely to specifically set up a walter elim, and cfj you are part of the tandem pushing these counter-town angles.

I've kind of been wanting to give you the benefit of the doubt because maybe you're just a townie on the wrong side of the tracks. But you have not had the thought that maybe you had been voting against town interest and were wrong on walter with A.) The wagon composition on scumflip and 2.) The company you are keeping. For example Raya with soft defending the Shelly slot before votes were in favor of flipping Shelly.

I don't think it's unreasonable for a townie to have soft-defended the shelly slot. There wasn't all that much which was scummy there. At least one player called it the slot town even while voting for it, and much of the rest of the wagon doesn't seem to have cared about it either way.

Also, what conclusion are you trying to draw from the voters on the Italiano wagon also being on the shelly wagon? That sounds kind-of like you're assuming that Italiano is scum, if you're lumping together his wagon with shelly (on flipped scum) and mine (on town, but you seem to think it's on scum). For what it's worth, I think the main conclusion is that some people just like to wagon, and some people don't; this game contains a number of players who are very cautious to place their votes.

I agree that the nightkill may have been to set up Walter to look bad. (This doesn't necessarily mean that Walter is town; scum may have wanted him to look bad from the nightkill so that they could use the argument "the nightkill is setting Walter up to look bad" to defend him.) This is actually one of the better arguments for Raya as scum (if she were town, she would likely have been a better nightkill for this purpose than Not_Mafia, although if scum are inexperienced with Not_Mafia they might have been paranoid of what he might do later in the Day).

In terms of Raya soft-defending, I looked into this; there does seem to be some evidence of it, e.g. #580 / #699+#704 / #805; Raya seemed to be townleaning on geraint, whereas her read on shelly is more neutral, so why rank geraint above shelly when it becomes time to compromise? I don't, however, see this as at all strong a tell about Raya. If she had defended shelly a little harder than she had, I would expect the day 1 wagon to have ended up elsewhere. Soft-defending would serve no purpose for scum unless they expected it to accomplish something; if the player flips anyway, and flips scum, you've just made yourself look bad for no reason. The behaviour in question more frequently comes from town with a null or nulltown read, because they don't expect the slot to flip scum and thus aren't thinking about how bad they'll look if/when it does.

[callforjudgement]

I just realised that there's a scenario in which Italiano could be town, but nonetheless display the behaviour shown so far this game – if Italiano is

not

a Friendly Neighbour, but

is

confirmable as town via some other means. This would explain the otherwise inexplicable stalling: if he confirms himself, he'll likely just end up drawing the nightkill, whereas if he just waits and hopes the pressure will go away, there's a chance that day ends with him looking very scummy, and scum shoot elsewhere, and there's always a fallback plan for if a wagon does build on him.

It doesn't explain the focus on deflecting the pressure against him rather than on scumhunting (like he says he wants to), and it doesn't explain the lengths he's going to to intentionally antagonize people. But at least I can now just about imagine his behaviour coming from town.

With that said, RCEnigma seems pretty likely as an Italiano partner, and is also pretty likely scum if Italiano is town (even if Italiano thinks he has a good reason to wanting to increase the general confusion and antagonism surrounding the game at the moment, RCEnigma doesn't really). My main reservation against joining that wagon is that I don't much like the wagon that's there at the moment – I would have expected it to dissipate upon realising that RCEnigma has a tendency to do stupid and ill-advised gambits as town, but it didn't (in particular, the fact that Raya is still there is something of a point against Raya, as she doesn't seem to have a scumread for independent reasons). I guess I'm starting to see where the Raya wagon has come from.

[Nosferatu]

VOTE: ItalianoVD

Normally, if someone claims a confirmable role early in the game, but it fails to confirm, you leave them alive for at least one more Night just in case something went wrong and it can all be fixed. But that assumes that there's actually an attempt being made to confirm the role.

If someone claims a confirmable role and then

retracts

the claim, that's different: there is now no prospect of the player being confirmed by Night actions, and they've caused a distraction / derailed scumhunting for no good pro-town reason. This normally makes the player look scummy, and Italiano was looking scummy Day 1 has been acting even more so Day 2.

In this case, Italiano hasn't retracted the claim by his words. However, he has, in effect, retracted the claim by his actions. He isn't acting in a way remotely consistent with a Town Friendly Neighbour (or Town Friendly Neighbour Neighbour); if he really did have such a role, I'd expect him to soon be in serious trouble with the listmods for repeated, outright, intentional flagrant breaches of the "play to win" rule. Everything he's been doing at all recently appears to be calculated to make it harder for the town to scumhunt; and his actions are completely inconsistent with his stated opinions (e.g. he's stated that the talk about his Night target is a distraction, but has failed to clear up this distraction even though it would be trivially easy to do so,

and

has been talking about the distraction rather than posting a list of reads he's apparently already created). This isn't a situation I've been in before, but I suspect that it's theoretically correct to vote Italiano out here. (There's very little risk to this wagon; if he's town, and thus telling the truth, he could stop the wagon at any time simply by finishing his claim. Normally, you don't want to take the risk of voting out a confirmable player, but in this case there is no way a hypothetically town Italiano wouldn't claim to save himself if he were anywhere in the same solar system as the "play to win" rule.)

u really think he's playing against his wincon by not confirming himself w no pressure on him to do so? what does he get out of confirming now?

[callforjudgement]

Still torn about the existing RCEnigma wagon, but I don't think that's a reason not to vote there:
VOTE: RCEnigma

If someone on the Raya wagon would prefer to push that one through, I'd be interested to hear your case.


PEDIT: If Italiano is town, he is playing against town wincon because the significant uncertainty around his slot is making it very difficult to scumhunt. Remember that he originally claimed under duress; the claim was to prevent a wagon building on him, it wasn't just a random claim out of the blue (see #876 / #[post]878). So right now, players who don't know whether or not Italiano is confirmed town have to take into account both the possibility that a) Italiano is town, and b) Italiano is fakeclaiming scum. (In fact, there's a third possibility, "Italiano is fakeclaiming town", which makes things even harder.) The more possibilities you have to sort through, the more uncertainty there is in the game and the harder it is to form conclusive reads. This also makes it harder to read everyone else, because town are confused by the uncertainty and give weaker signals, and scum can take advantage of it to hide.

On top of that, if Italiano is trueclaiming (i.e. is town, and is a Friendly Neighbour), the information about who he targeted is useful information for scumhunting the player who he targeted. Failing to reveal for this long doesn't help town, so the player in question has been acting in an anti-town way and thus is more likely to be scum.

[RCEnigma]

Damn, cfj might have to vote scum today.

Pedit: I was mistaken.

[callforjudgement]

Or to put it another way, it's not "what does Italiano get out of it?" but "what does the rest of town get out if it?" The amount of that the rest of town gets is quite a lot. The amount that Italiano gets is much smaller, but the amount that Italiano

loses

is also very small or nonexistent; scum already know whether or not Italiano is town, so (excluding the possibility of fakeclaiming town) they know whether or not the claim is real already, but town doesn't have that information.

[RCEnigma]

With that said, RCEnigma seems pretty likely as an Italiano partner, and is also pretty likely scum if Italiano is town (even if Italiano thinks he has a good reason to wanting to increase the general confusion and antagonism surrounding the game at the moment, RCEnigma doesn't really).

It literally DOES NOT MATTER if Italiano is confirmed today or not. I take issue with you using it as a crutch for the gamestate when it is such a miniscule part of the day.

If he is FNN then he is either night killed tonight or he isn't and can confirm tomorrow regardless of who his target was last night. This affects 0 parts of the day today.

If he isn't FNN then he has two options, try and super anti spew his partner or have his partner claim to get the message. Worst case there ends up being a 50/50 down the line about which world to dive in but that's it. Italiano isn't being elimmed today regardless of alignment.

[Nosferatu]

personally i think we could let it hang for like another day since walter knows who it is as well

[Nosferatu]

If someone on the Raya wagon would prefer to push that one through, I'd be interested to hear your case

honestly if i wasnt scumreading raya i wouldnt remember that shes in the game

100 posts with almost no substance, no impact on the game that i can think of, and she also refuses to put her vote where her mouth is wrt the italiano claim, almost like she knows that he's town and knows his claim will get confirmed :o

[callforjudgement]

With that said, RCEnigma seems pretty likely as an Italiano partner, and is also pretty likely scum if Italiano is town (even if Italiano thinks he has a good reason to wanting to increase the general confusion and antagonism surrounding the game at the moment, RCEnigma doesn't really).

It literally DOES NOT MATTER if Italiano is confirmed today or not. I take issue with you using it as a crutch for the gamestate when it is such a miniscule part of the day.

If he is FNN then he is either night killed tonight or he isn't and can confirm tomorrow regardless of who his target was last night. This affects 0 parts of the day today.

If he isn't FNN then he has two options, try and super anti spew his partner or have his partner claim to get the message. Worst case there ends up being a 50/50 down the line about which world to dive in but that's it. Italiano isn't being elimmed today regardless of alignment.

It may well matter if it's the difference between eliminating you today and eliminating Raya today. (For example, you are more likely to be town if Italiano is town than if Italiano is scum, although you could easily be scum in either situation.) Or are you deciding "OK, let's assume that Italiano's town, if he's actually scum it's OK if we accidentally waste the entirety of Day 2 and vote out a townie due to the lack of information because we'll then have caught scum Day 3". Then say Day 3 actually comes round, and there's a weird nightkill and Italiano claims to have targeted the killed player, and also that his Night 1 target was the Day 2 elimination.

Again, remember that this wasn't a random Friendly Neighbour claim out of the blue; it was a claim to save himself, on explicit request by Tayl0r (who is very likely town).

Scum

already have

the main part of the information that's being kept secret (Italiano's role and alignment). They don't have his exact target, but I don't see that mattering much to scum. Town do not have this information. Town can scumhunt much more effectively if it has as much information as possible; the only reason to keep information secret is to prevent scum from getting it, and yet scum have it already in this case! So there is no pro-town reason not to out it, assuming that outing it is even possible.

[RCEnigma]

Or are you deciding "OK, let's assume that Italiano's town, if he's actually scum it's OK if we accidentally waste the entirety of Day 2 and vote out a townie due to the lack of information because we'll then have caught scum Day 3". Then say Day 3 actually comes round, and there's a weird nightkill and Italiano claims to have targeted the killed player, and also that his Night 1 target was the Day 2 elimination.

Yes because we'll have traded town for scum. Which is 100% in favor of town.

[RCEnigma]

Again, remember that this wasn't a random Friendly Neighbour claim out of the blue; it was a claim to save himself, on explicit request by Tayl0r (who is very likely town).

Taylors been calling me too scum for 2 day phases so what do I care about her reads for?

[callforjudgement]

Or another scenario: say there's a scum roleblocker, and they roleblocked Italiano N1. If he doesn't out today, it looks really suspicious when he tries to out D3 and both of his targets claim not to have received the Friendly Neighbour message (scum would definitely block rather than kill in that scenario). If he does out today, and the recipient claims not to have received the message, we'll be somewhat suspicious of Italiano, but at least we'll know that there's a scenario in which he's town, and maybe town will have power roles that'll be able to check for any shenanigans N2.

[RCEnigma]

Or scum are ascetic, or there's a scum jk or, or, or, or.

[Nosferatu]

@cfj: do you scumread italiano right now yes/no. if yes then whats your theory for why despite the apparent clamor for him to claim, that his wagon is strangely empty?

[Nosferatu]

what if there is no fn and italiano is scum and on d3 his partner claims to have received a message and the n2 "target" is the nightkill :o

[RCEnigma]

Then gg town wins.

[callforjudgement]

Or are you deciding "OK, let's assume that Italiano's town, if he's actually scum it's OK if we accidentally waste the entirety of Day 2 and vote out a townie due to the lack of information because we'll then have caught scum Day 3". Then say Day 3 actually comes round, and there's a weird nightkill and Italiano claims to have targeted the killed player, and also that his Night 1 target was the Day 2 elimination.

Yes because we'll have traded town for scum. Which is 100% in favor of town.

We'll have traded three townies for one scum. This is a very neutral outcome in most scenarios, probably slightly scumsided (as scum would get to choose two of the kills – their nightkills – and would have a lot of influence over the third due to assumed-town-but-actually-scum Italiano's input into the D2 elimination). Simply being able to hang on one more day is a huge benefit to caught scum.

(Admittedly, this would be less bad for town in the current gamestate than it would in most cases, because the D1 elimination hit scum and the N1 nightkill got rid of a useless townie.)

My point, though, is that this situation could happen regardless of Italiano's alignment. Obviously, a scum Italiano could fake it; but it could also happen to a town Italiano if the target of his night action ends up being the elimination today, and fails to claim it during twilight at the latest. So the next Day, we

still

won't know whether or not Italiano is scum; if he can't substantiate himself by that point, we'll almost certainly be forced into eliminating him just in case, and if he is town, town may end up collapsing.


PEDIT: (re #1266) I had a very strong "either scum, or intentionally throwing the game" read on Italiano until a couple of hours ago (to the extent that I got very angry in real life about the whole situation), when I realised that it was possible that he was town fakeclaiming one confirmable role as a different confirmable role – that's one of the few ways to make sense of the game, so I calmed down somewhat and also my read got somewhat weaker. I no longer have much of a drive left to push the slot, and am not that certain of my own thoughts on it any more.

It is not surprising that the wagon of someone who claims to be confirmed town is empty. You need a really strong read on someone to not at least test their claim before eliminating them. (That's what I was trying to do, test the claim. We can do that D2, we don't have to wait until N2.)

[callforjudgement]

Then gg town wins.

I'm not convinced: in Nosferatu's scenario, then D3 we have Italiano (scum), Italiano's buddy (claims a town result on Italiano), 7 townies. We'll probably waste a few days miseliminating townies in that scenario, and if we do get suspicious of the Italiano+buddy pairing, we'll almost certainly eliminate the buddy first. At that point, we'll still have no idea whether or not Italiano is scum; after all, even if he's town, he could have targeted scum and the scum player in question would confirm him. I fail to see how this scenario is an automatic town win.

[RCEnigma]

We're talking elim targets, scum get a NK every night. We aren't playing semantics.

[Nosferatu]

It is not surprising that the wagon of someone who claims to be confirmed town is empty. You need a really strong read on someone to not at least test their claim before eliminating them. (That's what I was trying to do, test the claim. We can do that D2, we don't have to wait until N2.)

i kinda don't buy this

as you said, he didnt just claim willy nilly, he was run up and almost lynched. how are we as a town confident enough to run him up the first time, let him claim but apparently not confident enough to run him up a second time to verify the claim from before?

[RCEnigma]

Then gg town wins.

I'm not convinced: in Nosferatu's scenario, then D3 we have Italiano (scum), Italiano's buddy (claims a town result on Italiano), 7 townies. We'll probably waste a few days miseliminating townies in that scenario, and if we do get suspicious of the Italiano+buddy pairing, we'll almost certainly eliminate the buddy first. At that point, we'll still have no idea whether or not Italiano is scum; after all, even if he's town, he could have targeted scum and the scum player in question would confirm him. I fail to see how this scenario is an automatic town win.

We're 11 now, 2v9. Say Raya is town and we elim town today tomorrow we are at 2v7 and scum!Italiano is "confirmed" by their partner, we elim another townie. 2v5. Scum!Italiano is still alive and has no confirmation message, claims to have fn'ed the night kill. Yes you're right we elim the partner first and on a scum flip Italiano is dead.

Say we get to that point and Italiano is town going through a series of unfortunate events AND we've been hitting town every single day because lol scum hunting is hard. Italiano is still in 2v3 Melo with the possibility to hit yet another target, though it's a significantly higher chance he hits scum and they just go nah no message. In that case yeah probably a deserved loss.

Also keep in mind this is all assuming Italiano is the only town power.

But like....3 miselims is a lot so I'm not particularly worried about this one thing having to be hashed out immediately or OMG WE CANT EVEN SCUM HUNT.

[callforjudgement]

If someone on the Raya wagon would prefer to push that one through, I'd be interested to hear your case

honestly if i wasnt scumreading raya i wouldnt remember that shes in the game

100 posts with almost no substance, no impact on the game that i can think of, and she also refuses to put her vote where her mouth is wrt the italiano claim, almost like she knows that he's town and knows his claim will get confirmed :o

As for the "high postcount but no substance or game impact" read, I can sympathise with that.

This game has quite a few other slots of that nature (Gamma, geraint, and you), but I have a townread on all three of those slots. So I guess the wagon on Raya is a sort of "active-lurker PoE"? The main thing that worries me about voting for slots like that is that they're nearly always where scum looks to get their miseliminations, especially on Day 2 of a game, so I tend to be suspicious of wagons on them.

In this case (especially as my reads have been fairly off this game and there's evidence that the town as a whole may have good PoE reads this game), I'm interested in joining the wagon if it actually is a "this is a scumread, I want this player flipped" wagon (I was reading it more as a "well, I have to go somewhere, and I'm getting bored of toDay" wagon, and it seems massively against the odds to hope that those somehow end up hitting scum two Days in a row). I am not willing to vote Raya on the basis of having a scumread there myself. However, I am willing to vote there on the basis of sheeping you and Tayl0r, if you feel that it's a wagon that's worth pushing.