Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly

[CantHateAPuppy]

Mostly just a prod dodge cause I'm going to be busy all day

Still think we should spare. I think the math is actually slightly better because we can save two town and get a cop check, instead of only 2 cop checks at the end. Can write up a case on this later if anyone wants or not if everyone's sick of it

No strong opinions on the other issues. Redtea / suji is a hard lurker slot that has given me 0 to work with, tanner I still have as lean town from yesterday, his prickly paranoid conspiracy today fits what I'd expect from him although I really don't know much else about him

[Isis]

Spare Votecount 2.1

Hectic--------------------------

Chara---------------------------

Prism --------------------------

PookyTheMagicalBear -------

Morning Tweet----------------

Tayl0r Swift -------------------

Lavender ----------------------

Sujimichi--------------------------

Tanner -------------------------

CantLynchAPuppy-------------

Not sparing:

- (10) Hectic, Chara, Prism, PookyTheMagicalBear, Morning Tweet, Tayl0r Swift, Lavender, Sujimichi, Tanner, CantLynchAPuppy

Fight Votecount 2.0

Hectic--------------------------

Chara---------------------------

Prism --------------------------

PookyTheMagicalBear -------

Morning Tweet----------------

Tayl0r Swift -------------------

Lavender ----------------------

Sujimichi--------------------------

(3) Morning Tweet, Chara, Hectic

Tanner -------------------------

CantLynchAPuppy-------------

(1) Tanner

Not Fighting:

- (6) Prism, PookyTheMagicalBear, Tayl0r Swift, Lavender, Sujimichi, CantLynchAPuppy

Hectic saw the effort that Morning Tweet had started. He was too big to ride Sujimichi as a turtleboat, but liked the idea of several actors sailing down the river.
"YIP!"
Hectic slammed down onto the cave floor to make the earth shake, staggering Sujimichi's balance. But his tail also slapped the water, splashing everyone.
"Hey! I'm not waterproof! Am I? What are my features?" Nahdia exclaimed but then slipped into something pensive.
Sujimichi almost fell over, but right when it felt like he surely would, his tail pushed against the ground enough to stabilize him. It was a pleasant surprise for someone who didn't have a tail.
"Glub.."

---

It takes six to make a decision. The deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-28 02:00:24)

[Hectic]

[Hectic]

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Still think we should spare. I think the math is actually slightly better because we can save two town and get a cop check, instead of only 2 cop checks at the end. Can write up a case on this later if anyone wants or not if everyone's sick of it

I don't see why it makes sense to spare - if anything losing to the chara is even more likely with the smaller player list on an absolute probability basis whereas even if we miss on hurt we will see Chara flip.

[Hectic]

[Hectic]

[Lavender]

This, I just realized this game gives me a kind of deja vu
Anyways, I'm not sure what route we're going for here. But I'm guessing we focus on fighting over sparing since we had a good start with fighting beeboy?

As for my reads...uhh readsss (つω`｡)
Well, I think Hectic is definitely playing drastically different than as Marksman-scum.
I'm still somewhat biased against Tanner so my read on them being scummy might be faulty.

[Prism]

What are some differences you notice between this Hectic and Marksman-scum, Lavender?

Trying to nail down what posts you find scummy from Tanner-even if you can't quite explain why-might also be a good start!

[Lavender]

Ignoring the Undertale text difference, there's just overall more quoting and words in general.
I feel like their tone is different as well, reading through both of the ISO's again the difference isn't that much, but they way they format everything is different different.
Which is why I felt they acted diffrently.
I said different about 5 times.

Anyway, for Tanner, probably this?

also also, if i am scum trying to misfight lavender, why do i kill catboi, who (1) is townreading me and (2) is the only other person who was listening to me there and voting with me?

There are many reasons as to why scum would kill someone who is townreading them you know.
One would be to use that as a defense like Tanner just did and to cement the fact that a town member has townread them.
Since they're dead, that townread will never change.

It just seems like something said to get the smoke off his back.

Well, I say this, but I'm not certain.
Then again I'm never certain.

[Tayl0r Swift]

This, I just realized this game gives me a kind of deja vu
Anyways, I'm not sure what route we're going for here. But I'm guessing we focus on fighting over sparing since we had a good start with fighting beeboy?

As for my reads...uhh readsss (つω`｡)
Well, I think Hectic is definitely playing drastically different than as Marksman-scum.
I'm still somewhat biased against Tanner so my read on them being scummy might be faulty.

this post made me tilt my head...

the reasoning for fighting is out there even if the conclusion is right. the reads arent actual reads. hectic is a bit of gut based on meta. tanner is ? meta? and thats it? no townreads? was hectic a townread? i almost dunno if scum would make that post because its so... weak. it isnt even fence sitty, its just disengaged.

[Tayl0r Swift]

lavender how would you describe your town and scumgames? do you enjoy playing scum?

[Morning Tweet]

Mostly just a prod dodge cause I'm going to be busy all day

Still think we should spare. I think the math is actually slightly better because we can save two town and get a cop check, instead of only 2 cop checks at the end. Can write up a case on this later if anyone wants or not if everyone's sick of it

No strong opinions on the other issues. Redtea / suji is a hard lurker slot that has given me 0 to work with, tanner I still have as lean town from yesterday, his prickly paranoid conspiracy today fits what I'd expect from him although I really don't know much else about him

Shouldn't we just start sparing after Chara is dead if that is the case? Is there any reason to do it now rather than later?

[Prism]

The EV for sparing is much, MUCH worse than fighting to the end.

I punched EVs a few nights back. The EV for fights was 72.6%. The (overestimated) EV for spares was ~63.8%. In reality it is lower because I didn't correctly remember how Chara worked in a way that benefited town.

[Prism]

I can get a proper number for it if people insist but given that the upper bound is already significantly worse I'd rather not revisit to find the lower number.

[Chara]

hey all, apologies for my absence yesterday. i'll be back to normal this evening.

[Tanner]

i don't have much to say right now, since the slots that currently interest me kinda... aren't here.

lavender is still... well, lavender, but i don't know anymore. i hate that post, but it might be because they're cherry-picking one post from me (which i do still stand behind, i never kill catboi last night but self meta bad etc etc) and spinning it into something scummy while not engaging with anything else but hey. what do i know at this point.

the only thing that's genuinely bugging me at this point (since i'm gonna pretend i trust hectic's read there for the time being) is why *didn't* scum try to get lhf!town!lavender? especially since if Not Chara were to hardpush her through, they could do so without consequence. like, from my pov, the only two people to ever actually vote there were two town. was hectic really that convincing with that read?

also the fact that i also got 72.6% for genocide is making me regain faith in my math skills.

[Prism]

Being honest I'm swinging between extremely motivated and extremely unmotivated which is....pretty typical for me but I wish I could find a healthier medium. Half of me is really annoyed that I wasn't able to really solve the game on reread like I hoped. Half of me is really annoyed that for whatever reason I haven't been able to get more out of Lavender or Tayl0r.

[Prism]

I'm not really onboard with the Sujimichi vote but they need to come play.

[Prism]

I guess I should take a page from Tanner's book here. I can sit around waiting for someone to swoop in and say something that shines a heavenly light, dispersing the fog over this game, but I can also be an engine that helps us move forward. Taking 2/3 days off and giving others space did absolutely nothing for us.

I'm eager to hear more from Chara/Sujimichi, and Pooky too, but I've also got to put in the work and stay in gear.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Please let me know what you want to know my thoughts on

[Prism]

It looks like you thought Tayl0r and Sujimichi were the most likely scum here based off of gut a few days ago. Do you still feel that way, and do you have any confident townreads?

[Prism]

Also I literally keep saying "I can't wait to hear from Chara" and then either put off reading them or go "I don't really understand but this is fine" but one day. One day.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

in my re-read I like Suji more because Redtea seems to have trouble articulating his thoughts - making them less likely imo to be true thoughts - he had trouble explaining when asked simple things like "why?" for example.


I feel better about the people who were discussing mechanics with Elements during the beginning of the day 1 - none of the conversations felt very S/S but I don't have enough game history with them to make these TRs highly confident per se.


I'm going to re-read Catboi's ISO and re-read elements interactions again when I have time but I think a wagon on Suji has a decent chance of hitting red and if we miss the Chara will suicide and we will be down to 1 scum left over so it shouldn't be too bad.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

when I said I like suji more I meant as a elimination today - on re-read I realize that might not have been clear. I'd like to see more thoughts and engagement out of TS.

Another thought I had was that perhaps the scum-team does not have a very strong mechanical player for elements to expose himself like that? It is really strange the way he pushed for spares and then kind of faded into non-existence when it was clear that 4-spare was not going to be the plan going forward - I would think if there was such a mechanically strong player he would've persuaded his scum-mates that genocide was the only viable path forward.