FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt (Game Over!)

[Servant Caster]

Still planning to answer those Qs but it's gonna be a few days before I have time

[Servant Assassin]

Also I may name a pick but rushing eliminations is actively antitown so I can't promise a full commitment to that vote because I don't want to fall into the trap I did yesterday of never moving off the primary targets of suspicion

[Servant Rider]

If any of you lot want to talk to me about anything I'll be on in about an hour

Am A-OK with Lancer or Saber or Ruler

Anyone else I'd probably have to think about or just no

[Servant Avenger]

Also I may name a pick but rushing eliminations is actively antitown so I can't promise a full commitment to that vote because I don't want to fall into the trap I did yesterday of never moving off the primary targets of suspicion

Sure. That's fine by me.

@Rider, could use some thoughts on those three you're interested in eliminating and which you think is most likely.

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I'd compromise on Lancer but based on today's developments I think Caster, Moon Cancer, and Beast are better lynches.

Which 'developments today' led to those three names?

(Preferably an answer with something more than "Berserker's claim")

[Servant Moon Cancer]

Taking a contrary stand against the Shielder elim doesn't look bad on them at all, given the flip.

That is why it's a good thing for scum to do and why I wouldn't give anyone credit just for thinking that Shielder is town (and actually, why I started being more wary of Lancer, because I'm pretty sure there was probably scum somewhere among the voices being contrary). I'm not looking at what he did, but whether I think he really had a good reason to think that.

Do you believe the things he was saying he thought about Shielder?

[Servant Moon Cancer]

From what I remember, the voices being contrary were: Berserker, Lancer, Rider, me. The rest of the game was some mix of iffy to certain, but nobody else really outright called Shielder town. (And Rider is uh... well Rider didn't outright call Shielder town, but Shielder wasn't in Rider's scum pool at least and the reasoning for that was interesting enough that I'm including that name here)

[Servant Moon Cancer]

I guess the question for anyone who really cares to think about it is whether or not you believe zero scum thought about having a contrary opinion on Shielder.

(My POE pool is small enough that I sincerely doubt both Lancer and Rider are town outside of this perhaps flimsy reason anyway.)

[Servant Assassin]

There's usually at least one that stays off wagon to distance themselves from a miselimination. Lancer's main reasoning for Shielder being town is in 1269 1284 and 1289. I don't actively hate any of those posts but they don't strike me as things scum wouldn't say. Their followthrough of scumreading Caster for their push on shielder also feels like a natural extension, along the same line of reasoning as Berserker. Think their stance stayed fairly consistent overall. I'm not sure where the hate was coming from, exactly, other than slightly odd posting at the end of day yesterday.

[Servant Avenger]

I've had enough experiences where I can confidently state it could go one of three ways. The last time, it was both town, but we hashed it out.
Based just on his posts around that time, I don't see anything that would tip me in one direction over another.

[Servant Avenger]

Rider probably isn't scum if that helps any.

[Servant Assassin]

If he is I'm not going to be around long enough to catch him anyway.

But a detail I'm forgetting that does likely to point to a more passive scumteam is the fact that Archer's fakeclaim clearly wasn't edited, and I think most scum players here worth their salt would want to give it a once-over before posting it and not let him post it as-is. That may be reading too much into things but with certain people here I'd expect them to at least try to help.

[Servant Lancer]

Didn't realize day had started. Stuff is stuff but I'm here, let's go.

[Servant Assassin]

I'm going to do the thing I did before where I quote a post and ask: am I the only one who has a problem with the way this is written?

I mean, Lancer's at E-2, you should be happy, no?

Also if Caster's your top scumread why do you care if he scumreads you?

I don't care for me. I care for other people to see that and realize it's a ridiculous thing to believe and they're hiding behind my fervent belief they are scum to OMGUS back at me as a defense.

Because no one listens to me.

I can see why Berserker is so upset.

Lancer is consensus scum and thus can be lynched any day. If Berseker dies, who would push his guilty? Moon Caster could lie based on Berserker's flip based on the sounds of slim chance of a false positive.

It's a very townie reaction.

[Servant Assassin]

Didn't realize day had started. Stuff is stuff but I'm here, let's go.

I wagoned you to E-2 already, quick, what's your reaction

[Servant Rider]

@Rider, could use some thoughts on those three you're interested in eliminating and which you think is most likely.

Lancer - This guy. 2108 are some thoughts I had. They have a habit of shading whoever's attacking them with tangentially related at best buzzwords, e.g. moving the goalposts wrt Assassin, there was something they said about Berserker strongarming the master upgrade (this wasn't an attack, but it felt like they were crafting a reason to scumread Berserker), they did it again in the second round vs Assassin (btw this was the pattern I was watching during d0 that I was being cagey about for those of you with long memories/good notes). They haven't done it in a while, but then, they haven't really played the game in a while either, other than that mediocre display against Caster yesterday.

Ruler - Not a whole lot has changed about Ruler since 1779, the last time I spoke about them. In fact, Ruler hasn't made a single post since. Not the new one either. And I ain't gettin any younger.

Saber - This is the weakest of the three I list here. Mostly here by POE and because newSaber just hasn't really been a shining beacon of town like much of the rest of the playerlist. I guess I should include Beast here too, but I just don't think about Beast. Maybe someone should talk to me about Beast.

[Servant Lancer]

I did ISO the mod to see when day started I'm very sorry

[Servant Rider]

am I the only one who has a problem with the way this is written?

You ain't.

[Servant Lancer]

I mean, Lancer's at E-2, you should be happy, no?

Also if Caster's your top scumread why do you care if he scumreads you?

I don't care for me. I care for other people to see that and realize it's a ridiculous thing to believe and they're hiding behind my fervent belief they are scum to OMGUS back at me as a defense.

Because no one listens to me.

I can see why Berserker is so upset.

Lancer is consensus scum and thus can be lynched any day. If Berseker dies, who would push his guilty? Moon Caster could lie based on Berserker's flip based on the sounds of slim chance of a false positive.

It's a very townie reaction.

Consensus scum? Do you scumread me?

[Servant Foreigner]

Looking at the votes on Caster yesterday is what I'm doing and of those, Saber's feels the least valid to me.

Great. Help me flip Caster tmo and then we can argue if I was bussing or not.

Why are you still convinced that caster is mafia?

[Servant Lancer]

So we can run you up and we'll see if you're really okay being executed instead of claiming your full role and actions list and seeing what happens.

Oh, do you think I was bluffing when I said I had zero intention of fighting against my own wagon if I happened to be run up in this game?

lol

don't sign up for mafia games if you are going to be like this

if you're town i will be avoiding you in the future

+++

Assassin I get why you're upset, but you're not in charge of the entire town's collective decision making. You had a wrong read on a miselim. It happens.
I felt like shielder was town but I wasn't confident enough to really push against it because the claims were so weird.

[Servant Foreigner]

I haven't seen Ruler actually say anything.

Lancer was a vote because he definitely falls in my bottom 3 of my reads. I don't have strong scumreads but he's down there.

Assassin talking about Saber seemed pretty convincing to me

[Servant Lancer]

playing to a win condition over "amusement" like some sort of anime villain should be an enforeceable rule

I really shouldn't TR posts like this. But Caster's reactions have been consistently good and in hindsight maybe I should be listening to that over what could actually be playstyle. Trying to be all smart about shit has not been working.

[Servant Alter Ego]

Taking a contrary stand against the Shielder elim doesn't look bad on them at all, given the flip.

That is why it's a good thing for scum to do and why I wouldn't give anyone credit just for thinking that Shielder is town (and actually, why I started being more wary of Lancer, because I'm pretty sure there was probably scum somewhere among the voices being contrary). I'm not looking at what he did, but whether I think he really had a good reason to think that.

Do you believe the things he was saying he thought about Shielder?

I don't disbelieve them.

I'm a meta player. In this game, I'm relying on townhunting/scumhunting stuff that are usually at least secondary and some tertiary info streams. Unfortunately, reading for conviction isn't working all that great. I'm focusing more on progressions and whether there's enough info they've put in the thread to support the stance changes players make.

[Servant Lancer]

Lancer proceeds down that road of trying to tamp down on Berserker's momentum. #117.

@Beast, @Alter, @Saber, @Ruler, what do you think of Lancer?
Lancer what do you think of those 4?

@Beast, yeah that's what I meant. k.

I TR Alter, their posting just feels good and I liked the comment about how TRs on them should be going down.
Beast and Saber could both be scum. Both of the reads are partly PoE/not townreading, but I did like some of Saber's posts day 2, I think their ISOs are also short so I could take a better look.
Ruler I've got nothing on. Maybe at one point I did have thoughts, but I don't remember.

@Alter - do you have a read on me?