Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly

[Prism]

HURT: lavender

i probably wont be on until deadline, but i

proxy my vote over to prism as needed

.

[Prism]

That was Lavender's second ever post between like, 4a-1p CST by the way. Not just this game. They again had not voted for literally the

entire game

It is plausible a hammer could have happened. Not just letting it sit would be stupid to the point of throwing the game.

[Prism]

Arguably if that's really the case-that no one will wake up-you can safely point it out anyway but sounding the alarm for it is another step.

[Prism]

...Okay, and giving us an extra midfight for no reason? Is that supposed to be worrh getting two to him or something?

[Isis]

Line

[Krazy]

It is plausible a hammer could have happened. Not just letting it sit would be stupid to the point of throwing the game.

That's totally fair, and I don't deny that addressing it as an issue does increase his towncred. However, that towncred is lost to me when someone takes something that is +townie and tries to force it as being [forced locktown] and viewing any doubt about their alignment as suspicious. Scum can do townie things for towncred, and given that he's the one making the biggest deal about mech I can also see him finding *a reason* to no kill given he is already in the process of building a narrative before really anyone was seriously pushing him today. Like his posting today feels reactionary and almost desperate which is not the way someone who thinks they actually *should* be locktown would act

[Prism]

I guess I'm also talking around the crux of your push-which seems to be based (before 3180) a lot in how he's approaching you-and switching the topic to what I find town rather than what you find scum. I'll try and approach it more from your perspective/do a more thorough trace of the engagement when I'm at a computer.

[Krazy]

I'm also pretty skeptical of MT being hard town but I probably need to find some span of two or three hours where I can actually process my notes and see if I'm just totally off the deep end, if not later tonight than hopefully tomorrow at the latest. I kind of want to just do a soft reset on my reads and try to come at the game fresh but that's really hard when I feel like Tanner is either a third or a fourth scum the way he began today (can't wait for him to say I'm 'butchering mech' again with that comment)

[Prism]

Chara. I know it's been like, one day, but I'm really eager to get you back involved and active in the game and having fun. Is there any way I can help you get more engaged with the game/any thoughts you want to bounce off of me?

[Prism]

I also have to do a soft reset so no worries. My reads yesterday were a disaster lmao

[Morning Tweet]

Spoiler: Krazy on Tanner

though my question still stands, i do feel like i'm being more lurky/reactive this game than town!me usually is, and you described my usual townplay as that iirc, so uhh... what gives?

When I replaced in, you were talking about the necessity of lynching "lower" slots, dropping lists, and pushing dog, a read you seem to have kinda almost entirely lost interest in?

Like coming in on 57/58, that would not give me the impression of a lurky reactive player, my first impression of those pages was that you were one of the more active players. You have dropped off in the last thirty pages or so but you haven't given any sort of sense of apathy in the same ballpark as post-apoc for sure.

Since then you keep listing me in the bottom three pool but at this point I honestly can't remember why you even put me there

and I do remember you being capable of having stronger reads, I'm just trying to remember the games you were in that gave me that impression and I'd have to look back at our shared games

but yeah, maybe your self-conception of your play this game is thrown of by my impression based more on where I entered the game and what I read when I entered. But every time you have posted I've kinda been like, "huh yeah tanner seems like scum" -- like even right now your questions seem kinda scummy lol. Maybe the reason I wasn't updating my meta discussion of my read on you was because I wanted to see how you engaged with the evolving conversation and real time interaction is generally better than meta anyway? :P

This case feels very personal to you so it's hard for me to connect with it, if that makes sense. You find Tanner extremely scummy but not for reasons I can understand

I actually feel pretty good about this

who has been blocking this? I think I'm ready to fite someone to fight Tanner

I will bring with me the power of meeeeemes!

hmm

i don't think i have anything specific i want you to look at because the game is kinda weird right now, in a sense that i don't think we can procceed in a huge manner without flipping a "lower" slot first and seeing whether that gives us victory or a deepwolf not-chara flips and we need to start over. again, would be lovely to big brain snipe the deepwolf today if they exist, but i'm kinda thinking that's unrealistic.

One of my concerns with tanner involves the push to "lower slots" which which admittedly does relatively match how a lot of the game is viewing the gamestate and the current lavendar push which reflects that a lot of town have similar feelings to this, but it bugs me when I see a list like this:

i don't know if this is really exclusive to Tanner, though? You do mention that as well. Tayl0r/Lav was super consensus. Also including Puppy in there is actually +town for me tbh

i'm kinda shoving all of hectic/prism/morning tweet/chara/pooky as "this is most likely town, and even if it's not we're not flipping them today unless something mindblowing happens, so moving on" (yeah, i get it's funny saying that while watching the prism-chara thing brewing, but hey)

which leaves
suji - at the start of day two i pointed out that some of their connections with elements aren't... great, and i've talked about my read progression on redtea at the bottom of 1349. i have never played with suji, but from what i've seen of their play around the site, they're usually not that invested as scum and they often flake? and this game is kinda similar to their scumplay? the issue of "who are they partnered with?" is the only thing bothering me.

lavender - do we need another chapter of tanner ranting about lavender? i kinda wish they were at least, i dunno, trying to interact with me. actually kinda wanna hear what hectic thinks of this slot now. @hectic pls help.

puppy - we also don't need another chapter of this. also i kinda wanna talk to them on the things i brought up recently. will give an update at some point maybe.

taylor - i don't know. they're like. meh. i pretty much don't remember anything they've done.

Aside from puppy, the scum pool here all feel like they're coming from the position of "lynchbait" rather than scum, and I've felt like Tanner has been more interested in maintaining the "lynchbait" pool than in solving. I also feel like he didn't really engage with the rebuttals to my slot being scum presented by Prism and Pooky but still keeps pushing me into the lower pool anyway which is something that reminds me of how someone like Elsa Jay responded to my rep in in the shakespeare boon game

Maybe. I did the same thing until I kind of town toned you up higher. I feel like that pool matched yesterday pretty well -- there were many many people who seemed strongly towny, and then there was the other pool which was mostly our elimination considerations. It was difficult to effort really hard for me personally yesterday, which certainly didn't help.

On the connections, a big part of his argument is:

them pretty much disappearing the last 3-4 days of day one, where the weird lack of resistance of the scumwagon could be explained by an afk buddy

and this just feels like a weird and kinda scummy thought process. I generally find "resistance" based arguments about wagons to be highly suspect. If scum bussed, they probably wanted towncred. If scum didn't bus, yeah redtea could be scum, but I just didn't like this thought process or the formulation of this evidence. Like saying "I think scum would be reacting this way to this wagon" is just very often wrong and I more often see scum faking speculation about resistance than town actually using it, but maybe that's just my subjective take

I like your take on wagon resistance, it might have some merit. Scum can abuse that kind of reasoning to their advantage, for sure. Pick out what helps them n what not

Selective evidence gathering also bothers me in 938 since "scum killed this person for this post" is something scum is very likely to argue to screw with NKA. I feel like I've written posts exactly like 938 as scum, particularly in Titus v. Alisae most recently, and seeing posts I feel like I would write as scum from Tanner bother me

Fair enough. I like NKA but it again is inherent to being abused, sure. Catboi I feel was a somewhat off kill so there had to be a reason he was chosen.

Other people have also formulated reasons why Tanner just seems out of sync even though they don't really conclude he's scum off it:

I really am struggling to see 1084-1092 scum in the same way you are. Sparing isn't happening, scumPuppy knows it, it's only going to draw attention, and the chance of them personally getting spared even if successful is zero. That doesn't mean they're town for it, but it is plausible as town, so the scumread is really tenuous here to me...The piece Puppy seems to be missing is that 2 correct spares isn't much better for us than 2 misfights, if it even is at all (I again don't want to do math). Without that, their reasoning lines up.

The person they immediately push to spare in 1298 is Chara for the push on Elements. This stuck out to me because I think Hectic was much more of a driving force there-Chara opened it with a vote for scumpings but Hectic really carried that through as I continued to press him to justify it-but is consistent with their 1090, where they don't seem to remember Hectic shoving. Maybe they're being willfully blind as scum, but this process seems really plausible to me.

From Puppy's perspective, this seems to be the case: Sparing might be slightly worse mathematically, but bussing Day 1 is so stupid that no one would do it. We've got such a good chance of getting two good spares that we should take it. I remember Chara as the person who really pushed that vote, so that's my first spare vote for sure.

You (Tanner) challenge the assumption that no one would bus Day 1, but I really see why someone would assume that. Even I, who has bussed their way to mathematically suboptimal extremes, am tempted to believe the same.

I feel like I agree with Prism on basically everything here, and from this I more wonder why Tanner doesn't end up lower in Prism's list since the weird assumptions Tanner is making (scum don't bus day 1?) to me seem scummy

Tanner also complains that in posts like 1644 I remark that he's saying scummy stuff but he doesn't really engage me on it so let me expand:

so uhh what was the deal with 1494?

this bothers me because it feels like testing the water on my Hectic townread without really pushing back on it directly. like if tanner is scum then me townblocking with Hectic would probably be game-losing if we are t/t so this reads like a panicked scum reaction

f puppy's not scum, then from my pov it's either some combination of lavender/krazy/taylor or something's very wrong

this just feels like a scummy rule of 3 list and since I'm in it that would point to TLav or TanTaylor; he continues more in this pool as the day goes on without really doing anything that would spew lavender or taylor in particular imo. The way he's treating his pool right now feels very cautious

Well that's revealed to be an all-town pool now.

In slightly more recent posts:

your meta on me is just... post-apoc and flying scumsman, right? those two are probably the worst games to meta me from

I admit that my comments about his alignment earlier did play into a baseline intuitive sense that "datisi feels diff this game" but I feel like arguing about my ability to meta-evaluate him is scummy regardless of whether my meta read is actually good or not. I feel like I've made this argument often as scum, where I argue someone can't meta-read me particularly if I feel like they *shouldn't* have been able to meta read me or the meta read is garbage but 'right for the wrong reasons'. I think the reason I see this as more scummy is because as town I would have more confidence people will just *find town in me* because it's there whereas as scum I would feel a bigger need to pushback on the kinda weak gut-take meta evaluation

Yeah, I see what you mean with regards to "caught for the wrong reasons" kind of there.

Tanner feels different than usual in this game but I don't think it's for AI reasons.

either you're scum trying to set basis for my execution the next day, or you're town and wrong and tunnelled.

I also felt like this was kinda out of left field. I do not feel at *all* tunneled on Tanner. I did park my vote on him but he's been under almost no other pressure and there's been a lot more "why don't you hammer lavendar" than anything else. Like I can't just always move my vote when moving my vote to the next most logical spot risks a chara quickhammer if we're wrong. This feels a lot more like a justification to keep me in his pool rather than a towny reaction

I do think that Tanner is the slot I can actually see scum in much more so than Lavender who I feel more just 'fits every team because she hasn't really done anything'

shrug

i'm reading prism's points on why hectic is scummy and like "this probably makes sense, prism knows what they're talking about"

hectic's push on me felt like scum knowing the pool is tight and they need to have some nice progressions so they're setting me up for a later day - the counterpoint to this is that i've thought this same thing about all of hectic/krazy/puppy/maybe ever taylor i don't remember

but hectic's points on why he doesn't hardbus there? i dunno? it vibes? at least not as not-chara?

i don't think i want to vote for hectic today?

it's unfair to call this a soft defense because why?

Does the soft-defense of Hectic still ping you or is that irrelevant now? Just wanted to bring it up again

i mean, same works in reverse... find a game where i either forgot to submit a kill, or no-killed knowing it would give an extra execute (and please don't make the argument that i didn't know that would happen), *while* showing up eod, reminding everyone that we need a hammer, as opposed to lurking then removing my vote when it's too late, where i don't tell my partner to lurk out as well, and knowing that the "oops i didn't know about that rule" would've been a viable excuse today considering absolutely nobody other than me was aware of it.

like, i don't get how you see that sequence of events and go "you know what? we should fight tanner."

I haven't even begun to start evaluating the VCA and I'm still thinking about EoD, I just don't like your posting. Why are you asking me to not make the argument you didn't know it would happen but feel okay making that argument for me? I feel like you're trying to make an oog insult to me in the process of casing me here lol

I feel like you really want this to be a 1v1

...which is fine actually, go for it

I am seeing this vastly differently from you. It makes me somewhat feel like your perception of Tanner is being altered by his push on you. It doesn't come off like a 1v1 invitation

Yeah excuse me for dropping in due to insomnia

I feel like your meme could just as easily apply to me, but the fact is you're sitting here making memes trying to instigate something when I literally just said I haven't taken the time to fully analyze the game yet. We have two new flips and you came into today literally acting like YOUR reads haven't changed overnight at all. You're literally taking my problem with your slot and accusing me of it.

HURT: Tanner

I have searched your ISO and not come up with the end-all reason for Tanner being scum. I am totally convinced that you believe Tanner is scum, though.

That is why I'm voting for Pooky. You're not mafia, are you?

[Morning Tweet]

I'm also pretty skeptical of MT being hard town but I probably need to find some span of two or three hours where I can actually process my notes and see if I'm just totally off the deep end, if not later tonight than hopefully tomorrow at the latest. I kind of want to just do a soft reset on my reads and try to come at the game fresh but that's really hard when I feel like Tanner is either a third or a fourth scum the way he began today (can't wait for him to say I'm 'butchering mech' again with that comment)

I volunteer as the next fight if it's not Pooky

[Hectic]

<3 I'm happy at the faith you have in me, Morning. I'm pretty confident it's Pooky, probably more than my confidence was in Ele-scum.

Prism, did you read my case yet?

[Prism]

Naw not really (#BIGSORRY), I've been mostly hipfiring in between doing other things, I feel too guilty if I sit down for an hour+ of deep focus instead of Doing The Things I Should Do Right Now.

I'll be finished midday Friday though and there's a good chance I tackle it way before that

[Prism]

I'm gonna have a long backlog RIP but I will get through it

[Hectic]

Okay, but take any longer than that, and I'm cashing in some favours to make Isis set your prod timer to 4 hours.

[Lavender]

( ó╻ò)!!!
Pure Evil!
Making a prod timer to 4 hours.....

I'm more inclined to think of Tanner as town because, why would he ever out the rule...?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

HURT: Pooky

It's not Prism, Tanner, Hectic, Lav, or Chara

Pooky's suspicion of Hectic feels more fake than Krazy's suspicion of Tanner. Also his paranoia of dying yesterday was kind of weird.

Oh also I read Hectic's case so yeah. Even the WIFOM part of "who would do a no-kill?" just points to Pooky

Am I crazy for locktowning Hectic or am I correct that Pooky probably shouldn't be giving Hectic the OMGUS technique today?

Where did you get the idea that I'm OMGUSing Hectic? I'm the one who suspected Hectic first...

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

like Hectic opened D2 by saying Pooky is probably town etc.. I'm the one who suspected him and pushed him and then he came back on me. His entire case of me going after him is just nonsensical timeline manipulation.

[Morning Tweet]

HURT: Pooky

It's not Prism, Tanner, Hectic, Lav, or Chara

Pooky's suspicion of Hectic feels more fake than Krazy's suspicion of Tanner. Also his paranoia of dying yesterday was kind of weird.

Oh also I read Hectic's case so yeah. Even the WIFOM part of "who would do a no-kill?" just points to Pooky

Am I crazy for locktowning Hectic or am I correct that Pooky probably shouldn't be giving Hectic the OMGUS technique today?

Where did you get the idea that I'm OMGUSing Hectic? I'm the one who suspected Hectic first...

I meant more of the whole "Oh Hectic it must kill you do to this, there's no way you believe in that case" like you're pretty much certain it's him. OMGUS was a bad way of putting it. You're reciprocating Hectic's certainty back at him but I guess the difference is i just don't think it's Hectic and I forgot why you suspect him

I will research more of how your reads on each other developed...... after trigonometry

[Morning Tweet]

<3 I'm happy at the faith you have in me, Morning. I'm pretty confident it's Pooky, probably more than my confidence was in Ele-scum.

Prism, did you read my case yet?

<3 no reason to make the same mistake of not listening to you again!

Also, I'm out of suspects

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

yesterday I suspect him because he was not really present. He felt very "satsified" with the solve and dismissive almost of putting more time into the game. It felt very uncharacteristic of Hectic's play.

today my suspicions are solidified by his interaction with Puppy on D1/D2.

I am also very alarmed that people I consider highly likely to be town such as you and Tanner are willing to townbin Hectic - meaning that if I am right he has a very good chance of winning this game.

[Prism]

yesterday I suspect him because he was not really present. He felt very "satsified" with the solve and dismissive almost of putting more time into the game. It felt very uncharacteristic of Hectic's play.

Can you elaborate on why this is scummy to you considering our situation yesterday and the knowledge that Hectic isn't Chara? Is this just because you don't expect Hectic to be this content as town given that situation?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I didn't like how content Hectic was with the Suji wagon

[Prism]

I still feel like this is worth some justification as to like, where that dislike is coming from. It seems uncharacteristic to you, but there are some clear mitigating factors imo (Suji/redtea AFK, 74% chance of winning/4 fights to hit scum, several strong townreads)