Mini 627 - Riverworld Smalltown - Over!!!

[iamausername]

There's only one mafia left, shafted.

[armlx]

OK, then what possible flaw is there?

I don't know. Someone might find one. That is my point.

Shaft.ed has been scrambling a ton these past few pages.

[shaft.ed]

There's only one mafia left, shafted.

Jesus Christ. I seriously Fail today.

[shaft.ed]

Shaft.ed has been

scramb

failing a ton these past few pages.

I just want to make sure this thing has all the bugs worked out. I've already realized I'm either going along with the plan or the likely lynch for today.

[M4yhem]

What if Bob is mafia and Armlx is the SK, Bob is lying about tracking Armlx and Armlx isn't correcting him because he's been falsely cleared? It seems like the best plan a SK could come up with would be a plan that kills as many people as possible.

Also, the massive flaw is that you're lynching me even though I've played as close to perfect as I ever get. Seriously, I find a scum, I get him lynched and what's my reward? You want to lynch me, the very next day, for no goddamn reason that I can see.

I hope you lose. I hope the SK and the mafia carve you up into equal sized portions.
I'm leaving town and moving to a castle far away from here.

[armlx]

What if Bob is mafia and Armlx is the SK, Bob is lying about tracking Armlx and Armlx isn't correcting him because he's been falsely cleared? It seems like the best plan a SK could come up with would be a plan that kills as many people as possible.

I said this a couple pages back. If Bob is mafia and one of IAUN/myself is SK, that is the semi-awkward scenario. But its not even remotely as bad as if we had to spend time lynching Alabaska + Shaft.ed + NN individually.

I just want to make sure this thing has all the bugs worked out. I've already realized I'm either going along with the plan or the likely lynch for today.

I realize that too. Me saying that doesn't actually mean anything, as the long term result is the same (you die tonight as town or tomorrow as scum).

Also, the massive flaw is that you're lynching me even though I've played as close to perfect as I ever get. Seriously, I find a scum, I get him lynched and what's my reward? You want to lynch me, the very next day, for no goddamn reason that I can see.

Fail as the SK wants to lynch scum too.

[shaft.ed]

Mayhem, armlx is incredibly vig happy as town. I think that makes his plan for killing many people less of a tell.

And yes the armlx SK, bob mafia is about the only situation that worries me at this point. So if that's true:

Town opens with:
TSPN dead via armlx kill.
Bob then has to fake a false result on Rishi being the SK or he is lynched for being the SK via process of elimination. (This is something to be prepared for tommorow guys should Bob get a hit).

Town then lynches Rishi or Bob, more likely Rishi if they trust the result. Rishi flips town, we go to night with a prisoners dilemma:
Claus-town (has jailkeep ability)
NabNab-town
armlx-SK
Bob-mafia(armlx knows this)

Actually if the town no lynches I think they could work out if Rishi is town?

[M4yhem]

Fail as the SK wants to lynch scum too.

Statistically speaking, I'm far more likely to be a townie than the SK and since I haven't dropped any tells (not that anyone has mentioned, anyway) I'd say it's you who fails, for lynching a likely protown player just because you're scared of what their role can do.

Also, I'm less likely to be scum than Nab is, if you take both types of scum into account. So, you fail again.

[armlx]

Change of plan. I forgot we can do this.

Unvote, Vote Alabaska

He can feasibly be SK or mafia. NN and M3yh3m less likely on the mafia part. Having a scum dead going into night is the optimal plan.

Shaft.ed hides with M4yh3m tonight, I kill M4yh3m. Same diff as M4yh3m lynch today.

And M4yh3m, your arguments are irrel. Who are we supposed to be lynching/vigging other then you, NN, or alabaska? One of the info roles? No thanks. Try again.

[M4yhem]

Who are we supposed to be lynching/vigging other then you, NN, or alabaska? One of the info roles?.

The mafia and the SK. Fuck the roles. If we'd gone by roles, Pug would have been let off the hook.

How about we lynch NabNab, kill Alabaska and jail/track me so that I can prove I'm town and I don't have to die at all?

[armlx]

The mafia and the SK. Fuck the roles. If we'd gone by roles, Pug would have been let off the hook.

Uhh, no. Not true. Read NN's explanation of why. And don't "Fuck the roles" when we have a set up that breaks the game open and determines who is scum regardless right now?

And how about we lynch Alabaska, kill you, and jail/track NN to prove that and keep a more useful role around?

[shaft.ed]

Why is it better if we lynch scum and kill a townie, versus lynch a townie and kill scum? Has anyone tried thinking about adjusting the plan in the case that we do hit scum with our lynch?

Only benefit I can see in keeping NabNab around is proven town he can feasibly pick up Alabaska's role Night 3. But the only way he is proven town is if there are two kills tommorow night and he is jailed. This cuts the opposite way in a very dangerous fashion should NabNab be scum.

[armlx]

Why is it better if we lynch scum and kill a townie, versus lynch a townie and kill scum?

1 less NK.

Has anyone tried thinking about adjusting the plan in the case that we do hit scum with our lynch?

I don't know if we need/want to change anything.

NN can do a bunch of things as town.

[shaft.ed]

NN can do a bunch of things as town.

Yes but he will only be able to do them on Night 4 given the current circumstances. At the rate we are planning to kill people off this will have little effect on the game. A scumNab picking up an extra life N3 could be very problematic, and force the town's direction with lynchings and night choices. Something to think about.

[armlx]

A scumNab picking up an extra life N3 could be very problematic,

You make a point. However, the double vote does a similar thing. Maybe its just better to have those 2 be the two who die?

Mod, if the dead role absorber is jail kept, can they absorb a role that night?

[shaft.ed]

No he won't.

[armlx]

Shaft.ed, is this another question I just forgot was answered?

[shaft.ed]

1) Jailkeeper

[Alabaska J]

unvote, vote: NabNab

What are you doing armlx?????

[M4yhem]

And how about we lynch Alabaska, kill you, and jail/track NN to prove that and keep a more useful role around?

No. Forget roles, talk about alignment please. You are happy to let Claus off the hook for townie behaviour, how is my behaviour any less townie? Nobody has given a reason to lynch

me

, it's all about lynching my role. But my role isn't dangerous unless it's in scum hands, which it isn't. Please, if you are going to lynch/vig me, make a case for why I am scum, a case I can answer. Don't just base your strategy on the role which was picked before alignments were given out.

The same goes for killing Nab or Alabaska, in fact. Just because there's lots of action at night doesn't mean we can't just neglect the day game.

Now, what happens if your plan means we lynch a townie today and then four die tonight?

[M4yhem]

*doesn't mean we

can

just

[shaft.ed]

OK this analysis (hopefully better than previous) looks specifically at catching the SK.

Scenario 1, Claus or (Jailed other guy) are SK. TSPN investigates and outs the SK.
Result: SK lynched Day 3

Scenario 2, Claus or (Jailed other guy) are not SK*. TSPN is killed.
---2a, Cyberbob Dies flips town: armlx and IAUN are cleared by Night 1. Claus (Jailed other guy) is cleared by Night 2. Rishi must be SK.
Result: SK lynched Day 3

---2b, Cyberbob Dies flips mafia: one of armlx or IAUN is cleared by Night 1. Claus and (Jailed other guy) is cleared by Night 2. One of Rishi, armlx or IAUN is the SK with higher probability on Rishi.
Result: 33%? odds on lynching SK

---2c, IAUN Dies flips town. (Jailed other guy) is cleared by Night 2 Jailing. Claus can claim being jailed if he picks up the ability (can be demonstrated Night 3)* but is not cleared. Cyberbob can claim on Rishi either:
------Guilty: One of Cyberbob or Rishi is the SK, with possibly greater odds on Rishi as Cyberbob would risk dying before end game with a false claim. (Cyberbob may be mafia faking a result on Rishi, which actually makes 33% odds to lynch SK, but 67% of scum).
Result: 50% odds on lynching SK
------Innocent: In this instance either Cyberbob or Claus is the SK with greater odds on Claus as Cyberbob could push a direct case easier on claiming a guilty on Rishi. (As above Cyberbob could be mafia faking a result making the actual odds 33% of lynch SK, but 67% of scum).
Result: 50% odds on lynching SK

---2d, IAUN dies flips mafia: Cannot trust any of IAUN's jailkeeping except for Night 1 where he was tracked, unfortunately TSPN is already dead. However, Cyberbob as SK or town shouldn't have had reason to lie about his Night 1 claims thus armlx is cleared. Thus if Cyberbob claims:
------Guilty: Rishi is the SK as there are no other antitown factions and thus no reasons to not trust Cyberbob. If he is lying and Rishi flips town he can be lynched next dday.
Result: Lynch SK Day 3.
------Innocent: armlx and Rishi are cleared of being the SK. Thus one of Claus, (Jailed other guy) or Cyberbob must be the SK. If Claus did in fact absorb IAUN's power he can jail both armlx and Rishi after lynching Cyberbob or (Jailed other guy). armlx and Rishi then lynch whoever else is alive going into the next day. If Claus does not jail then lynch Claus. If Claus did not absorb the power, then the town gets two shots at the SK one at 4:1 with two confirmed innocents and one at, 2:1 with one confirmed innocent.
Result: ~50% Lynch SK Day 4, ~50% 33% odds on lynching SK.

[armlx]

1) Jailkeeper

I realize, but the dead role absorber isn't clear on whether it is actually a blockable action.

What are you doing armlx?????

Your alarm is interesting, but look at it. NN and M4yh3m decently disassociated themselves with Pug when they didn't have to. You didn't really. You are more likely to be scum then they are IMO, and therefore are the strongest choice of lynch as to limit the NK's.

Shaft.ed, in 2b, there are def lines of actions to go through that solve the issue.

m4yh3m, you attacked Pug after he was already pointed at. Claus has actively scum hunted through a PR all game.

Also, I am showing why you are the optimal lynch. Evidence you are scum is not needed.

Now, what happens if your plan means we lynch a townie today and then four die tonight?

Guess what, we then know who the scum are most likely. We still win.\

M4yh3m's diversion from the real issues surrounding his lynch is interesting.

[Cyberbob]

M4yhem, if you can't see how your behaviour is less townie than Claus'... *shrug*

Also,

But my role isn't dangerous unless it's in scum hands, which it isn't.

An ingenious defence.



As for the plan, seems pretty foolproof. There are only a minute number of scenarios where the town is screwed - it seems as though shaft.ed has pretty much every angle covered.

Unvote, Vote: NabakovNabakov

The real kick in the balls would be if Claus was scum.

[armlx]

If Claus is scum it can be dealt with easier then the double vote or absorbing 2 lives.