In post 156, PlusJOYED wrote:i love touhou so im TRing remilla until further notice
In post 213, Something_Smart wrote:I mean, I didn't mention it before because I didn't find it significant, but there is a nonzero chance that 156 was an awkward scum attempt to avoid saying "Nothing."
I think this is worth noting.
Remelia tinfoil, but i just trust them so much right now, it’s gonna be shattering if they are scum.
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Actually, Morph trying to target SS early might be telling that Morph was paranoid of SS. Then on top of SS talk on Plus, and the ability to break up the SS-AL connection, Morph has every reason to kill SS who they probably believe has the best chance at catching them, because you know they just brushed me aside, lol
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In post 4017, Something_Smart wrote:I'm gonna check out +Joyed overnight, and see if I can't get anything a little more clear-cut than I currently have on him (which is not much).
Nah, this is why SS died, I already went down this rabbit hole yesterday, this is why I went Plus. I think I emptied the SS reserve of information. I’d give that heavy assist to SS getting Plus yesterday then.
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In post 1059, zMuffinMan wrote:what an awful read. it's funny, because i think you were doing pretty well until you started suspecting me and bork hydra
In post 1072, zMuffinMan wrote:it's awful because you clearly have no ability to read the intention behind any of my posts so you come to incorrect conclusions
people can be wrong and not awful; for example, i think bell thinking my attack on morph was bad is wrong but not awful
youre trying to dissect my posts in a way that shows a complete inability to read intent, tone, etc
that's what makes it awful
In post 1099, zMuffinMan wrote:april, the fact that you even mistook the FoS vote as a serious vote shows you don't have the ability to discern when i'm saying something in jest and when i'm being serious about something, which means i already know you're off base in being able to read my tone - it doesn't matter if you took that back. the fact that you thought me asking whether a potential RVS vote on fferycabd was serious might have meant i was trying to discredit them on page 3 and the fact that you agreed with plusjoyed's wall on me tells me you have zero idea how to read the intent behind my posts - also the mistake you made with thinking i was defending alisae, even if you also took that back, compounds this
and the fact that you're clearly misreading the intent behind me pointing out your read is awful also compounds this
In post 1100, zMuffinMan wrote:you know what the difference between you and plusjoyed is? i thought you were doing ok until you started veering off
that's also what makes it particularly awful
sad
Zmuffin has also been pushing me down heavily. Interesting.
Plus was trying to keep me as a close town pocket, which makes sense that the other scum members would be against me.
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ST and Remelia i'm seeing as much townier lately. 420 could be scum, I guess, same with Maid.
Morph's scumming it up, though, but might be because I think their playstyle is sooooo absurdly slow paced.
Morph, Zmuffin, Plusjoyed is my tinfoil solve.
This is why my default setting with you is no cooperation. You have no fucking idea how to read us. So why should I think you are competent to read anyone else in this game, given you spin like a top from solve to solve solve.
In post 4789, zMuffinMan wrote:i am half expecting april reaches lylo, "solves" the game, votes town, but the only thing april remembers about this game is that at one point he called the scum team and that makes him good at solving
i fully expect to find a similar pattern in past games from april if i could be bothered looking into them
it's been there, i just didnt feel like dealing with it today, and it's just much better to assume town since everyone else is.
Which 100% gives that 5 person POE extreme likelihood of being the actual solve. Even if it isn't, the possibility of there not being at least 2 scum in the 5 is just beyond great odds.
If Morph/Zmuffin, then I got it correct with this tinfoil. Look how they came and both instantly attacked me.
After thinking about it, this entire game has been back and forth first Morph coming at me, then Zmuffin. They’re like tagging in and out to keep me down.
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Which also makes sense considering Plus was right up next to me for so long. In theory, if Plus flipped, it would pair Plus and I up a bit, but I hard turned on Plus, and muffin/Morph werent able to keep that strain going.
@Remelia - why do you think Zmuffin is scum?
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In post 4073, zMuffinMan wrote:delaying the action makes no sense unless they can continue doing that indefinitely
like if mariaboy is town, what does delaying it a single day do?
i guess maybe one day closer to lylo or something? eh. not like it makes a diff really?
I feel like they mentioned there was a delay?
I think they target someone at night, and they blow up at day end or after the timer? Idk.
It probably ends the day if it’s the timer.
they said they'd blow up at the start of the day cause they were frustrated. i don't think this is part of their ability
In post 4296, zMuffinMan wrote:they did indeed say theyd do it straight away and i kinda figured that implied it wouldnt end the day so that is why we are playing the waiting game
It looks like I’ve had Plus and Muffin paired up a lot. ST was with them a lot as well, so I guess there’s the chance I’m wrong, and that’s a possibility for team. I also found a couple TMI posts by Plus and Maid, so I could believe the team is Muffin/Plus/Maid.
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3 of these are scum unless Morph is scum, then 2 of these are.
If you trust I'm town, this is literally the case. I know that I am town, so I know that this is the case.
I have said all game pretty much I think exactly 1 of Plus and Remelia were scum, 420 got a protect. I just wanna say Maid is town, i really can’t get past the idea of how entirely terrible this would be if Maid is scum here. Like, what if we had hit scum day 1 and 2?
So it’s Zmuffin and ST or Zmuffin and Morph.
In post 4622, zMuffinMan wrote:in before april says im frankensteining him or cookiemonstering him or something
This is important because Plus is the one I told that was “warlocking” me, and Zmuffin here brought up silly things like this, which is yet again a discredit attempt on someone pushing them as scum and super suspicious on partner Plus as well. This is exactly how scum should act if I nail their partner and them in this way. Zmuffin has been stating i had terrible and bad reads, when Plus was one of my main components, alongside Zmuffin.
In post 4609, midwaybear wrote:It doesn't seem like April is doing all of this for post game cred. It just seems like they are constantly shifting their reads with each post in thread even if it means bouncing around a lot. Seems really hard to fake as scum even though I know that he is a great scum player.
I also really like this post for townMidway in this area, so even midway sees that Zmuffin is posting things that isn’t what it looks like. Bell also stated that Zmuffin is a puppet master scum, which the entire discredit play by them onto me legit looks like it is happening, especially around the time I was pushing Plus, and remember, there was Plus vs Zmuffin, so this is actually a really scum motivated hatchet plan on me. I was pushing their partner, so they hatcheted me, discrediting me, chopping me down from the bottom to keep me from growing.
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Zmuffin No Killed gambit because they expected me to target them, so if I died, and was the only death, they could help clear 420 because they could push his protect more.
Zmuffin is also trying to no fade with a plan of “420 targeting April. Let’s see what happens.” Mindset.
It’s Zmuffin and 420.
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We fade in there today, we have 420 protect me in case he is town, and then we essentially can get an auto clear. If there’s ever only 1 death, and it’s me, whoever I target is scum who tried to get out of it because we will be actively stating 420 is targeting me, which also hinders scum420. This gives us a free conf townie or a caught scum no matter what.
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In post 5984, zMuffinMan wrote:we're at evens and i doubt scum have more than a 1-shot role block given (the lack of) town power. and i wanna see if the mariaboy thing persists
and you cant even die if 420 is town
just target me again
easy
ah, i understand.
Zmuffin is scum possibly misunderstanding the role. I will die from my Weak modifier even if I am doctored if I hit scum.
My best bets are Zmuffin/420 and Zmuffin/Morph. Again, ST is possible, but I would go in that order right now.
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In post 2629, 420 Blaze It wrote:+'s reasons for pushing me are pretty bad. It's fine if it's policy and all, but saying the apathy/not caring has to come from scum is disingenuous
VOTE: +
In post 4482, 420 Blaze It wrote:yeah, I'm a Unconditional Love, a Town-Aligned Conditional White Mage.
my ability is Hope Is A Hell Of A Drug where I can target someone every other night to protect them for the next two nights
I am also town, apparently
In post 4484, 420 Blaze It wrote:oh wait hope drug thing is me being town aligned. True Affection Floats is the name of the ability
Actually, these look kinda anti associations, and I generally do like that mess up, and they seem like not caring town.
In post 5044, 420 Blaze It wrote:Why can't that exist with mine? I guess that's like an IC but you have to survive till eLo to pull it off. Oh I guess you have to get scum to hammer too so more risk reward since it's gg if you get a town to do it
UNVOTE: Remilia
they unvoted remelia here after Rem claimed, and I don't necessarily understand why Rem thought they couldn't exist. We hadn't mass claimed yet, and our small amount of PR's makes me decently happy about it. Especially considering scum are confirmed to have an Ascetic or Roleblocker now.
honestly could flip scum for his continuation tunnel on me being the easiest stance or thing to pursue in the game. also i'm weirdly afraid that people think i'm scum eith him if he doesn't dlip scum so lest not have any of that
they dropped a vote on Plus pretty easily.
And they specifically mentioned that they are afraid of people thinking they are scum with Plus, I actually think this is super townie. Yeah, I think I'm happy with 420 town, and the role does make sense here. I'll look over Prism in a second, but yeah.
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420 was voting scum in VC 1.11 until 1.15, and then moved followed by Remelia/Morph, and this was deadline votes.
It's interesting to note that Midwaybear was voting Alisae, Morph put Alisae to F-1, and then Midway unvoted, all in between vote counts. I also believe the Maid Cafe wagon in 1.15 has scum in it, and that would likely be Morph picking the other side that Plus picked, while other scum Zmuffin stayed off.
The final day vote count likely has 2 scum on, 1 scum off, also fits with Morph/Muffin.
Day 2 Some VC's
Spoiler:
VC 2.9-VC 2.11, then the VC 2.16 highly indicates Morph scum. There was a strong back and forth, and the day pretty much changed and I feel it's because scum stopped trying to stop the Plus wagon and just went with it, so I believe both scum are on the 2.16 Plus wagon.
VC 2.12 seems like Morph's attempt to get 420 killed instead of Plus, and that was essentially Morph's turn on 420 temporarily.
Mid way bear was on the early 420 wagon, but didnt join anywhere else. Zmuffin and Midway both jumped at the end after spending the majority of the day not voting.
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Both fades weren't able to go through until Morph threw down a vote, which is scum obstructing and not allowing defenses to get past unless they want it too. Zmuffin is perfectly setup to come in and tear me down every single time I started pushing in the right direction. Morph would control gamestate a lot as well.
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If you notice when Alisae and plus are the biggest wagons, Morph moves momentum over to Maid Cafe, and it ends up being Alisae vs Maid and Plus ends up in the clear.
I think VCA also makes Morph scum in addition all the other reasons stated, like me targeting them last night. the overreactions. Them being ready for the 1v1.
These reasons separately aren't damning, but all of them together, Morph is just scum.
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1.16 with likely having scum on the alisae wagon other than Plus also indicates ST/Muffin not being a team.
So I believe, that unless something weird happened with Remelia/Bell/Midwaybear, Morph and Muffin are the team. I'll stop posting for now, but I really wanted to do some deep dive and analysis work to show my thought process through everything, and to make sure I wasn't missing anything.
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In post 5277, Bell wrote:@Apiril target Morph, muffin, Rem or ST.
Just trust that you're read of me is accurate.
sorry, last thing until people post. I think this is extreme anti Bell/Plus associations. I said I target Bell if plus is town, and zmuffin if plus is scum. they say Plz dont, then go ahead to ask me to target within a group, one of which is Zmuffin, and if Bell was scum with Plus, they would have instantly knew zmuffin would have been my target, hwever they then put Zmuffin in the POE group to target, which means Bell clearly saw the chance of Plus flipping town. Okay, bye!!
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