Death Curse

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i think its too fancy - I don't really care if the scum who gets the scroll first decides to obv-scum and toss it to someone who is obv-town it only gives us more info to work with on the 3rd scroll recipient.

[Nero Cain]

¶

Votecount 1.3

[8] Noraa:

UNOwen, Lady Lambdadelta, Hopkirk, MURDERCAT, PookyTheMagicalBear, Adorable, Flea The Magician, Toogeloo

[2] Tayl0r Swift:

shellyc, Tayl0r Swift

[2] shellyc:

VaultDweller, Bell

[1] PookyTheMagicalBear:

Isis

[1] Bell:

Lapsa

[1] Adorable:

Noraa

[5] Not Voting:

Gloria Cleary, MUSHSHAGANA, Theta Alpine, Fidget, Zdenek

With 20 alive, it takes 11 to curse someone with the scroll. If there is no majority by the deadline, the mafia will choose who to curse.

The cursing deadline is in (expired on 2020-10-28 03:35:35).

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I am curious what would qualify as a good wagon to Tayl0r rn. Or if there are no good wagons, then what is stopping Noraa from being the best one out of currently available options?

Also, a question to the people discussing the mech: Did you decide it was worthwhile enough to give the final scroll pass to the scummiest player? Or should we not bother?

I understand that, in a way, we block a night kill if the final bounce is to scum. But that will require us dictating to the second chosen player who to pick, which is unfortunate. We also might learn something from who scum passes the scroll to anyway. That is why I am not sure what our best option is.

There are the following outcomes

Vote to Kill Town-> Pass to Town->Pass to Town=0
Vote to kill Town->Pass to Town->Pass to Scum=1
Vote to kill Town->Pass to Scum->Pass to Town=1
Vote to kill Scum->Pass to Town->Pass to Town=1
Vote to kill Scum->Pass to Town->Pass to Scum=2

Those are all the outcomes. You need to think of it like this. Because scum will always pass to town, if we vote to kill a townie, we basically get 2 vig shots to make it up and avoid the 0 result. A result of 1 is a "fine result" and what we want to aim for. If we score 1 on all our rounds, we will win the game.

So essentially, if we get a townie, we should consider our two shots as independent because remember scum can lie about if they were scum when they get cursed.

So, in essence, the first pass from the person we vote to the next player we should always assume they are a townie. 4/5 times they are, and in the only time they are NOT, we're always in the "Score 1" world which is just fine by us.

So basically, we can work and do plans and stuff with the middle person as if they were a confirmed townie. The voted for person... less so. If they're scum, they'll pass to a townie and there's just no work we can do with them.

If they're a townie, they will just do as they want given we voted them out.

So in my mind, you just want to let the person we voted do what they want, and then let the middle person be treated as a confirmed townie, ask questions and work together to help them make a good informed choice but not control them.

And if we focus on it like that, we up our odds to hit the 2 score world, and lower our odds to hit the 0 score world.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

[1] PookyTheMagicalBear: Isis

Spoiler:

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Also another thing is if we hit S with the scroll to begin with - the S can't just blatantly take out the most obv-town townie on our side like they could with a NK because it gives us valuable info for the 3rd pass. If the scum pretend like they are actually following a thought process and nail a player that could plausibly be scum for 2nd pass - it would still be positive EV for us.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I am curious what would qualify as a good wagon to Tayl0r rn. Or if there are no good wagons, then what is stopping Noraa from being the best one out of currently available options?

Also, a question to the people discussing the mech: Did you decide it was worthwhile enough to give the final scroll pass to the scummiest player? Or should we not bother?

I understand that, in a way, we block a night kill if the final bounce is to scum. But that will require us dictating to the second chosen player who to pick, which is unfortunate. We also might learn something from who scum passes the scroll to anyway. That is why I am not sure what our best option is.

There are the following outcomes

Vote to Kill Town-> Pass to Town->Pass to Town=0
Vote to kill Town->Pass to Town->Pass to Scum=1
Vote to kill Town->Pass to Scum->Pass to Town=1
Vote to kill Scum->Pass to Town->Pass to Town=1
Vote to kill Scum->Pass to Town->Pass to Scum=2

Those are all the outcomes. You need to think of it like this. Because scum will always pass to town, if we vote to kill a townie, we basically get 2 vig shots to make it up and avoid the 0 result. A result of 1 is a "fine result" and what we want to aim for. If we score 1 on all our rounds, we will win the game.

So essentially, if we get a townie, we should consider our two shots as independent because remember scum can lie about if they were scum when they get cursed.

So, in essence, the first pass from the person we vote to the next player we should always assume they are a townie. 4/5 times they are, and in the only time they are NOT, we're always in the "Score 1" world which is just fine by us.

So basically, we can work and do plans and stuff with the middle person as if they were a confirmed townie. The voted for person... less so. If they're scum, they'll pass to a townie and there's just no work we can do with them.

If they're a townie, they will just do as they want given we voted them out.

So in my mind, you just want to let the person we voted do what they want, and then let the middle person be treated as a confirmed townie, ask questions and work together to help them make a good informed choice but not control them.

And if we focus on it like that, we up our odds to hit the 2 score world, and lower our odds to hit the 0 score world.

Everyone needs to read and agree to this. This is a breakthrough. In ALL RELEVANT WORLDS the 2nd cursed player who has their final choice is AN EFFECTIVE CONFIRMED TOWNIE.

Because if they're scum there's just no point. They can troll and fuck around but with no power roles, they're just wasting time.

So literally the 2nd person is always confirmed town and we should treat them as such and work with them to get the best outcomes.

[MURDERCAT]

So literally the 2nd person is always confirmed town and we should treat them as such and work with them to get the best outcomes.

+1, makes sense to me

[MURDERCAT]

Noraa, who would you pass to right now?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

that makes sense

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Also another thing is if we hit S with the scroll to begin with - the S can't just blatantly take out the most obv-town townie on our side like they could with a NK because it gives us valuable info for the 3rd pass. If the scum pretend like they are actually following a thought process and nail a player that could plausibly be scum for 2nd pass - it would still be positive EV for us.

Agree. If they kill the most obvious townie, even with the rest of the town being like "no fuck that" we can be ASSURED they are scum.

Like if we kill Noraa, and noraa turns around and kills a really obvious town out of "spite" we can write them off as "scum" and just deal with it.

That's huge information. Lets us do associatives.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

you've gotten really good since the last time we fought those evil euro scum together :3

[Noraa]

Noraa, who would you pass to right now?

Aorn I would pass it to Adorable. That slot's vote on me really didn't rub me the right way. If I wanted to be god tier level petty, I'd prolly give it to Pooky for starting my wagon but I think that isn't the best play here in my position.

Another possiblity is that I'll pick one person that I'm fairly convinced is town whose reads I agree with and kill their top SR. I don't trust in my own reads especially not when I'm the top wagon. My reads are ... honestly garbage especially day 1 and I have zero doubt they are worse when I am under pressure. Plenty of examples if you need them. My first town game I was JKer. My scum team guess was two vts and I jailed two vts as well. My second town game, I tunneled a vanilla townie really really hard at the end and came somewhat close to giving scums the win. The above two scenarios were when I was universally TRed. I don't think I do better under pressure and I'm sure my reads are worse as well.

The second possibility would mean I would spend a lot longer trying to find someone I trust. I think the second possibility might actually be better cuz quality>time.

But if I had to like hand someone a scroll right here right now, Adorable gets it 100%.

[Adorable]

Noraa, your play makes no sense. You made a readlist and put Shelly, Vaultdweller, and Hopkirk as scum but you didn't vote them and instead you vote me for not voting and same thing can be said about you for not voting those 3 you listed earlier as scum. I don't mind getting the scroll since I've been busy lately and won't be able to put much effort.

[Toogeloo]

I asked for expansion of reasoning for Vault dweller and never got it.

[Noraa]

Lel im sure I have such huge privileges that I can spawn three extra votes out.
Shelly and Vaultdweller have straight up said like two things so most of my attention isnt directed there tho ftr, I do still SR them.
Hopkirk idk. I wouldn't say I SR him so idk where you get that.

[Noraa]

I asked for expansion of reasoning for Vault dweller and never got it.

gut scum pings is your answer. the tone wasn't right imo. I'm not able to exactly describe what's wrong but it doesn't feel right.

[Toogeloo]

What exactly pinged your gut? It was only 4 posts at the time, I'm curious.

[Noraa]

What exactly pinged your gut? It was only 4 posts at the time, I'm curious.

only two of them pinged. I believe one was addressed to shelly and the other was ... idk can't remember which one it was. One sec lemme go quote the post that I made on this slot.

[Bell]

I Like LLD’s reasoning it occurs to me that because of the chain there’s no possibility of wifom kills.

[Noraa]

I did a reread of what happened before I came in. A few posts that pinged me:

Spoiler:

Hey everybody!

I felt like this was a bit townsided when I reviewed it but I let it pass anyways. We're good if we just don't throw. VOTE: Fidget for hammering the game before I could /out.

Pooky dragged me into this game.

not a big thing to note but "Pooky dragged me into this game" reads towny. As town, if someone else tells me to join a game, I would absolutely put that out there along with most likely a thing being like so yeah its their fault if I die of having too many games rn.

My understanding is that scum get one day vig you can’t shoot a scroll holder.
We get three flips at once.
That occur over a 7 day voting phase.
Then 2 baton passes for an additional 6 days of content.
3 flips repeat.
No scum NK?

this strikes me as towny. I did not read the OP and had quite some questions and this definitely feels like towny confusion.

My understanding is that scum get one day vig you can’t shoot a scroll holder.
We get three flips at once.
That occur over a 7 day voting phase.
Then 2 baton passes for an additional 6 days of content.
3 flips repeat.
No scum NK?

obvious IIoA

Bell's towngame consists of quite a fair bit of IIoA tho so this is probably slightly town!AI if anything

pedit: Shelly liked this vote

I don't see how this is IIoa. all I see is confused townie trying to double check if what they know is correct. This is blatant misrep of bell. Also can you link the game you played with Bell? I'd like to meta dive a bit to make sure I'm not getting pocketed here.

Checking in, but going back to lurking soon

VOTE: shellyc

better?

not sure why but these scum ping me a bit. a light SR is appropriate here I think.

I have myself some suspicion
I’ll vote now, without omission
My choice is good, although not rare
VOTE: Pookymagicalbear

some of the wagon votes felt weird. Ik it was still RVS but I always feel like wagons that pile up big during RVS often contain a few scums and the faster it piles up, the more likely it is in fact, a town wagon. another reason why I TR pooky.

Or shelly? I mean ideally we just yeet shelly asap

I understand this train of thought though I find it a bit mean. Shelly welly is a god at scum and fooled me hard in Roses. Nonetheless, I think she deserves equal treatment. Good at scum =/= always scum. I slightly SR her here as stated previously but definitely not just bc she is a god at being scum.

[Noraa]

For clarity:

20
23

not sure why but these scum ping me a bit. a light SR is appropriate here I think.

[shellyc]

I’m not sure if we should just dogpile on Noraa now or just have a gentle beings agreement to give them the scroll later. Though I think the latter could be a problem in getting situated with good reads and atmosphere.

no this is fence-sitting

I love the bell-noraa push

VOTE: noraa

I know scum!noraa, this is exactly like them. self awareness, overdefensiveness instead of reads, cautiousness instead of stubborness

[shellyc]

I don't see how this is IIoa. all I see is confused townie trying to double check if what they know is correct.

oh and noraa hates bussing

no its not confused townie
its forcing townslip with the "scum no nk'

[shellyc]

Taylor - town for realizing that this isn't AI due to previous experience playing with me
Murder - null bc he didn't realize it wasn't AI even tho he has played with me before but the paranoia towards shelly is very town bc when playing with shelly, it is nerve-racking trying to determine if you're being absolutely fooled or if you are judging too much and she's actually town. I feel this paranoia all the way after one scum game with her where she told me about all her evil plans in the scum pt and after one town game where I was fooled by her big time. Something that town pings + something that scum pings cancel out and so I am null but prolly town lean still.
Pooky - town because I believe he believes in his SR on me and scum wouldn't bc scum knows who their scum buddies are.
Lexi - null. I still dislike the discord argument. Lexi's been more eager to push me than Pooky has which tbh is a bit strange considering normally the one that starts it is the biggest on pushing it :/
Isis - town because the tone is towny and I relate to some of those posts in that I would say something similar in her position
Bell - townie confusion. could be faked but I'm willing to believe it is real for now
Shelly - scum for misrepping people and also for throwing shade at pooky yet never voting pooky.
Vaultdweller - scum. can't quite put my finger on what's wrong here but I'm def getting scum pings.
Hopkirk - null but lean scum. dislike the jumping on all biggest wagons for no reason.

lol

this is clear scumpost
noraas trying to do 'solving', this is on the verges of TMI on some of the TRs
while town are getting a feel for the game you're fakesolving

[shellyc]

im super duper concerned at the number of people who have decided to push noraa as scum this early, and dont trust them either.

*eyebrows arching*

i think scum busses here tho
having differing takes is rather town