Death Curse

[Toogeloo]

2nd shot hits scum, they kill LLD and Noraa lives.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

yea but noraa isnt going anywhere

and 2nd shot only hits scum only happens if we miss on 1st shot - which is the same scenario as Noraa -> LLD - > Miss

[Theta Alpine]

we want scum to have the third scroll more then the first scroll
because we want to limit the number of kills scum gets to make and that is how we do it

This is a fallacy.

We don't intentionally save scum for third and possibly kill two town to get to them. If we think we have scum, we try to get them first AND third. Second slot should in most cases be more likely town than scum.

Trying to play differently is wrong.

i mean i am suggesting we save our highest scum read for third since our highest scum read is a likely choice to give the scroll to anyways
and put our second highest in first

because doing it the other way around which i believe is what you are suggesting is less likely to get scum in the third slot

p-edit
if it is t-s-t then we get scum and we still have a highest scum read to kill the next day

[Noraa]

I have enough respect for Noraa as a player to believe that if town she does not kill someone she thinks is town, regardless of what she is saying right now.

then do you think Taylor is scum here? she states that pooky is scum and LLD is town but very anti town so she will kill LLD.
This is in fact my exact reasoning(except I don't think pooky is scum) and I actually said that was why I was going to kill LLD before Taylor did. I believe LLD is likely to be town but she squashes all opinions that don't agree with hers and is overly confident and aggressive.

[Toogeloo]

If scum kill a town intentionally, it means they are scared of them,v which means a killed townie's venge shot is more powerful in the second slot than first or third.

[Noraa]

My reasons:

Considering she can push this hard, she is 100% a threat to town. I did mess up some but I don't believe at all that she's willing to reconsider even for a second. She is way over herself and squashes all other opinions. I will bring her down with me to prevent town from having this absolute domineering player that is, as far as I'm concerned, pushing in 100% the WRONG places. She is not helping town and is so fucking frustrating to work with. I do not think town benefits from her reads and presence AT ALL. Perhaps this is hypocritical coming from me considering my playstyle also sucks ass but I mean in the end, its beneficial for town cuz we get basically two policy lims.

[UNOwen]

then do you think Taylor is scum here? she states that pooky is scum and LLD is town but very anti town so she will kill LLD.
This is in fact my exact reasoning(except I don't think pooky is scum) and I actually said that was why I was going to kill LLD before Taylor did. I believe LLD is likely to be town but she squashes all opinions that don't agree with hers and is overly confident and aggressive.

Similarly I do not think town Taylor would actually go through with killing someone she thinks is town.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Noraa, I centered the entire town on my tunnels MULTIPLE times, particularly on Day 1. I forced everyone to react to what I was doing regularly. This is identical to my style, LLD is just corralling more players, which makes sense with 20 players. I would do the same thing -- I'd want to lock up 4-6 players to silence or polarized opinions so I could focus on content from the rest of them, then swap half of my locked players when I swapped focus so I could generate AI content for the whole lobby without total chaos.

Pay attention to LLD as the target pivots to Hopkirk, I've already noticed release of two players from the lock and addition of one. (Betting on more stuff from LLD, I'm not ready to put it out but I'll put a couple things down so I can say "haha called it": "from 1 to 2", and "sign flip".)



PEDIT: Noraa, you're beyond help. It's not even /just/ your fault. Yeah, your play this game is trash, but lots of townies have bad games and survive -- witness my second game with Shelly, where I threw away my towncred because I didn't understand the setup and perfect game strategy and ended up throwing the game. The problem is town is out for blood and your play is getting worse, not improving. There's no helping you here. I joined, read through, and IMMEDIATELY said "Noraa's doomed." I had genuinely wanted to help but I might as well ask the mod if we can all have quadruple votes for the chaos of it all. I'd have better success for sure.

I'm sorry.

[UNOwen]

I think I can see the argument on mechanics now, it is not about improving the best outcome but maximising town's control over who dies. Not sure I am convinced that it would actually work yet, I will look at it again tomorrow.

[Theta Alpine]

If scum kill a town intentionally, it means they are scared of them,v which means a killed townie's venge shot is more powerful in the second slot than first or third.

i suppose you might not have noticed

but i suggested that everyone keep their planned venge shots a secret until they get the scroll

so that in the event that this happens
scum is scared of that players public reads which will be public
or their ability to gamesolve which uh
will be pretty much the same situation probably

p-edit
it also means scum is choosing to bus or push on towns second highest scum read and not towns highest scum read which will probably change how they behave
but that is just a side effect and not a good reason to do this strategy by itself

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Nah, UNOwen, it improves town's chances. The values LLD put out are accurate: we kill scum once, twice, or not at all. There's only one possible world where we hit scum twice and only one possible world where we hit scum none. If we hit one scum every time we win before game over. So if we treat the middle player as conftown and work with them, there is no downside: we get to shape the final kill (because we hit town, maximizing chances of a hit on the third, which maximizes chances of hitting two scum if we were lucky with the first scroll-recipient) or we already hit scum (because only scum has no reason to work with us). The mechanics argument is good for improving best outcomes too, don't be too hard on it.

As a result, I'm happy with just hitting one very scummy player (Hopkirk) right now, and letting my no-hope townread go since she's dead no matter what I do. That'd be, if my reads are worth a damned thing, a scum-kill value of 1, which means we're on track to win still.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Nah, UNOwen, it improves town's chances. The values LLD put out are accurate: we kill scum once, twice, or not at all. There's only one possible world where we hit scum twice and only one possible world where we hit scum none. If we hit one scum every time we win before game over. So if we treat the middle player as conftown and work with them, there is no downside: we get to shape the final kill (because we hit town, maximizing chances of a hit on the third, which maximizes chances of hitting two scum if we were lucky with the first scroll-recipient) or we already hit scum (because only scum has no reason to work with us). The mechanics argument is good for improving best outcomes too, don't be too hard on it.

As a result, I'm happy with just hitting one very scummy player (Hopkirk) right now, and letting my no-hope townread go since she's dead no matter what I do. That'd be, if my reads are worth a damned thing, a scum-kill value of 1, which means we're on track to win still.

Where the fuck have you been my whole mafia life

I'll say this again later when this game ends so less paranoia, but god damn you play like I do. I have not been this mind melded or understood by someone in years, lol.

[Adorable]

I have read 20 pages since from where I last left off and I still haven't fully caught up. I'm still scum reading Noraa and I'm also scum reading Unowen because once when Noraa started to get defensive and all those votes piled up on her, Unowen says the wagon on Noraa looks promising and then randomly shaded me about my vote on Noraa which looked sus.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

No paranoia here: we just think the same. I am /very hard/ to pocket, I'm as likely to attack my townreads as my scumreads and I go hard when I pick my target, so I'm not worried about anyone who even brings up the possibility I might get paranoid of them. Only world where you aren't town is the world where you, Pooky, Isis and maybe even Bell are ALL in the scumteam (there are no other meaningful associatives at all with you, and all of those are OOG or tilting with a side of stupidly risky scum theater involved in this world I'm bringing up), which is so absurdly unlikely when I townread you this hard that I'm willing to dismiss it.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Adorable, I have this feeling you won't respond, but I'm going to lean on you anyway to give us a readslist and make a case on your strongest non-Noraa scumread.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

For now, I want content from our lurkers.

UNOwen is giving me nothing and giving the thread nothing.

Zdenek is low-information and has mostly been engaging with mechanics.

Adorable, to be fair, is busy, but I'd really like to see engaging with multiple points in the thread and not just a single question per, uh, 8 hour period. VaultDweller just plain doesn't initiate engagement, which makes their 7 posts a barren desert devoid of all association. Lapsa has no questions to ask and no input to offer aside from saying the game sucks because Isis got away with the scum-claim -- which, I mean, fair... but useless for sorting them.

And while I'm thinking of Adorable? A reminder! (Zdenek is now excused on account of becoming the scummiest player on the board from where I'm standing. UNOwen has stepped up content, so I'll be able to read them soon.)

Point to note: I don't quote if I can help it. You might have noticed. This is me getting lazy and overwhelmed in a very active game.

[Bell]

You guys

[Bell]

*sigh* it’s going to take me 2 hours to read whenever I find the energy to start.
Never mind interpret it.

Good afternoon. Mushagana looks better to me now.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I love how I give up on my usual play because of the post pace and the thread /stops dead/ immediately.

Good afternoon Bell.

[MURDERCAT]

I know I've just been going with the flow, but here's some of my hot takes. I don't understand all the tip toeing, this isn't like a normal setup where town has to stop talking once we flip someone. There's still scenarios where Noraa flips town and I'd rather have time after that first Noraa "flip" and after we have more info to come to a decision about flips 2 and 3. Also this is like the most fun setup to get miselimed in so I don't really understand why town Noraa would be so upset, but whatever. I think odds of hitting 2 scum day 1 are higher if we flip Noraa scum and get LLD confirmed early than if we try to go backdoor, and I think if we flip 2 scum today we win outright. I don't think town Noraa venges LLD out of spite. If this is town Noraa I want to know sooner rather than later.

[Noraa]

then do you think Taylor is scum here? she states that pooky is scum and LLD is town but very anti town so she will kill LLD.
This is in fact my exact reasoning(except I don't think pooky is scum) and I actually said that was why I was going to kill LLD before Taylor did. I believe LLD is likely to be town but she squashes all opinions that don't agree with hers and is overly confident and aggressive.

Similarly I do not think town Taylor would actually go through with killing someone she thinks is town.

You really think Taylor is scum here? Taylor standing up for me I generally consider town indicative because she has no business getting herself in hot water for a random townie that's perfect limbait if she's scum. Y'all say the "she wouldn't do this as scum" argument is bad but it literally isn't. I cannot see a single reason for why scum!Taylor would pull this play out right here, right now.

Noraa, I centered the entire town on my tunnels MULTIPLE times, particularly on Day 1. I forced everyone to react to what I was doing regularly. This is identical to my style, LLD is just corralling more players, which makes sense with 20 players. I would do the same thing -- I'd want to lock up 4-6 players to silence or polarized opinions so I could focus on content from the rest of them, then swap half of my locked players when I swapped focus so I could generate AI content for the whole lobby without total chaos.

Pay attention to LLD as the target pivots to Hopkirk, I've already noticed release of two players from the lock and addition of one. (Betting on more stuff from LLD, I'm not ready to put it out but I'll put a couple things down so I can say "haha called it": "from 1 to 2", and "sign flip".)



PEDIT: Noraa, you're beyond help. It's not even /just/ your fault. Yeah, your play this game is trash, but lots of townies have bad games and survive -- witness my second game with Shelly, where I threw away my towncred because I didn't understand the setup and perfect game strategy and ended up throwing the game. The problem is town is out for blood and your play is getting worse, not improving. There's no helping you here. I joined, read through, and IMMEDIATELY said "Noraa's doomed." I had genuinely wanted to help but I might as well ask the mod if we can all have quadruple votes for the chaos of it all. I'd have better success for sure.

I'm sorry.

Mush can you go into detail for why I am town? Taylor is not willing to because she says I have town tells that I am unaware of. Can you give your view on it? If LLD is SRing me hard and you think both of us are town, you literally might be the only hope to resolving this TvT conflict. I'm not willing to reason with her. I can and will have good reads with time. Ik the start was crappy but I absolutely think its possible for me to pull through bc I have some faith in town!me. I got limmed kinda early in some places lately but regardless, I definitely have more faith in town!me that doesn't have to pull everything out of her ass. (also I'm still curious what my mystery town tells are but Taylor won't tell me)

I have read 20 pages since from where I last left off and I still haven't fully caught up. I'm still scum reading Noraa and I'm also scum reading Unowen because once when Noraa started to get defensive and all those votes piled up on her, Unowen says the wagon on Noraa looks promising and then randomly shaded me about my vote on Noraa which looked sus.

Do you have any SRs that aren't OMGUSed?

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I could absolutely see town Noraa smashing LLD out of spite. I think it's less likely than the other option, but its fully within Noraa's playstyle and personality. I don't think it matters at that point, you treat Noraa as if Noraa's scum (e.g. try to work with her but expect nothing) if she's going down anyway. Personally I'd prefer to hit someone else on the third slot, and put Noraa as first to go down, but I cannot convince anyone about this, and I'd rather be able to agree on a scrollbearer for day 1 and work with associatives on the flips rather than champion a hopeless case and derail town while we're working on finding possible other targets and arranging our town-bloc.

Otherwise, MURDERCAT's post I agree with. Going down in a scroll-passing competition is fun as hell, and the nature of voting in this setup means a doomed target can still help the town out. Hell, if I read the rules right we can stretch days out to half again their original length, and give all our targets a ton of time to work with us. There's no need to be as cautious as in a normal setup early in the game, especially not on Day 1 where we have no hard facts that aren't vote placement and setup details.



PEDIT: Noraa, seriously, I'm not going to champion saving you. That drags me down and /no one is going to agree/. It's just throwing out towncred I need to be able to spend when I begin my patented pushes, and achieves nothing else. Absolutely not. It's TvT and it sucks but the read's all based on stuff everyone already dismissed and the way your posts ping my brain which is impossible to share, it's just a gut read based on brainworms. Cannot help you. Look elsewhere.

[MURDERCAT]

MUSH, I know what town Noraa is like tonally and I can see how people think this is town Noraa based on that, but I'm curious how you are excusing the "townslip" where Noraa pretends not to know number of scum. Like, I'm actually curious I'm not going to try to convince you of scum Noraa. Do you think Noraa really just didn't read the setup post?

Also, another hot take: if Noraa is town, scum Isis felt bad and replaced out?

[Noraa]

The prob is ... I don't got the aggression or persuasion skills of LLD so there's no way I win this fight on my own. Though I do understand your stance since helping me doesnt help you much bc I likely die tomorrow or something. Though my green flip would give you towncred, it could also get town paranoid or something. I'll try to fight this fight on my own.

[MURDERCAT]

Noraa, once again, why fight it? Like, you aren't 3p survivor, you are (according to you) a vengeful townie who could be a hero and flip scum.