Death Curse

[UNOwen]

I think this is a kind of standard scum play of trying to throw shit around, it seems kinda newb scum to say this if I'm being honest. So I think consistent with that would be fred doing the same thing to adorable. It's not a deep read but just something I noticed.

Yeah I can see this perspective, going for the WIFOM play is kind of a bold strategy too.

If we are talking small things we've noticed though I'll point out that way back I had my eye on a potential Zdenek/Adorable team because of this interaction:

Ah yes, I knew that my vote against Noraa would lead to good things.
The wagon looks promising, Noraa's reaction to the pressure has indeed been flaily.
Adorable's vote was not great.

@Zdenek - But what's it all about?

Laziness, and bolstering and attacking the wagon on Noraa in the same post.

Laziness, and bolstering and attacking the wagon on Noraa in the same post.

You believe that Adorable = the wagon?

Zdenek never responded, but he was bothered by me calling out Adorable specifically but mischaracterises it as an attack on the whole wagon. Thought this might be scum wanting to make a point but avoid drawing attention to their buddy.

[Adorable]

When I am scum reading a player, I vote for my scum reads and town should always vote on their scum reads. Scum are the ones who have to be careful on their reads.

Yeah, I know you're gonna vote for your scumreads, I'm not arguing against that. Your reasoning in your vote post

Noraa's play has been confusing me and that 180 she did earlier on me when Toogeloo was holding the scroll was sus. Her post on #3942 about Hopkirk also looked like scum shading him. So from what I gathered, scum Noraa likes to put pressure on players and she has been doing that in this game and town Noraa doesn't put pressure.

VOTE: Noraa

was utter insanity. When Gloria brings up meta that is more reasonable for evaluating Noraa

Could someone tell me why they are townreading Noraa or Tayl0r Swift? I am absolutely not.

Noraa’s emotional range is much greater here than in any of her scumgames + she’s making detailed, nuanced readslists. She didn’t do that in ANY of her scumgames and here, she’s doing that like it’s going out of style almost.

So, either Noraa’s suddenly switched up her scum meta or she’s town. The readslist also reads super genuine and not coached, so I’m obviously a lot more confident on Noraa!town than Tayl0r, especially after skimming The Trials but I still think it could be playstyle.

I’ve already explained Tayl0r but she should definitely be able to give reasons for that read, I did.

I have had some bad experience with meta and most of the time I don't focus on meta anymore. In my last micro game I played someone was getting town read for meta and that player turned out to be scum. I was getting scum read for meta and I was town. I have said earlier on why I scum read Noraa. That read list Noraa made when she put me as newbtown gave me a bit of a pause and I started wondering maybe Noraa could be town and if she was scum, I would have assumed she would continue on trying to get me eliminated and then later she did a 180 on me. On my first completed scum game I also made a read list and I didn't get coached. Noraa's play really has been confusing me.

You dismiss it based off of "bad experiences with meta". Gloria saying that Noraa is out of her emotional scumrange is very much what I am thinking, too. Noraa "not putting pressure" as town is not a thing. You are only accepting meta that helps you scumread Noraa. Why?

During this time frame you are also ignoring Frederick in favor of talking about Noraa and asking me for my reads. You have never had Zdenek/Fred on the table this game. You dismissed my read as "If Fred is scum, then Adorable is scum", rather than actually respond to it.

You are calling me a bad town player for this read, but I am only calling it as I see it.

Noraa's play has been confusing me to the point when I quickly skimmed 2 of her town games and 2 of her scum games. I have had other reasons for mainly scum reading her before I even looked through her completed games and the part when I mentioned meta was a bonus and the meta read was not the main thing I scum read her for and you should have already known that by isoing me.

Me ignoring Fred is not a bad thing and that's actually more town indicative since I was not expecting Fred to be scum and town are the ones who don't even know who scum is and are the ones who talk about their scum reads. I responded to your post that made Fred vote me and then Fred said he got a case and I said to him that your post was saying Fred and me are a team and Fred voting me literally made no sense to me since your posts was talking about me and Fred being a team and since I thought Fred was town, then why in the world would he vote me when you were talking about a team of Fred and me.

[Adorable]

By the way, that's not how I play as scum. I only have 3 completed scum games and first completed game I was distancing with a scum buddy and afterwards I played passive and voted no one, second completed scum game I fake claimed vt in a mass claim and was forced to get in a 1v1 because of my claim since players were suspecting scum to be in a vt claim, third completed scum game I played so passive and I voted no one.

You yourself have told me that meta is a bad way to read you, and yet, you use it as your defense repeatedly, this being the third time I can recall.

You even admit to have bad experience with meta (but only when it goes against your Noraa scumread). What am I supposed to think, Adorbs?

But I should still entertain it, yes. You are saying you are more passive as scum and tend to not throw your vote around unless you absolutely have to? So in this situation, you would not have been voting for either wagon for fear of being caught out on a CW? Is that how I should interpret this meta?

You keep bringing up meta which is why I talk about it. First time you talk about meta mentioning me was when you said you have played with me in my scum game and I said I have never played with anyone by the name of Fidget and then I figured out you are an alt and second time you talk about meta was me looking into Noraa's completed game since her play has been confusing me. To answer your question in the third sentence, I would have bussed for the town cred which is why I think there is some scum who voted Fred and bussed him.

[Bell]

Tentative don’t kill list.
Bell, Noraa, mush, murder.
Hesitant: Gloria, adorable.

Remaining: Titus, tswift, shellyc, Fidget, dgb, pookie, theta.

[Fidget]

You keep bringing up meta which is why I talk about it. First time you talk about meta mentioning me was when you said you have played with me in my scum game and I said I have never played with anyone by the name of Fidget and then I figured out you are an alt and second time you talk about meta was me looking into Noraa's completed game since her play has been confusing me. To answer your question in the third sentence, I would have bussed for the town cred which is why I think there is some scum who voted Fred and bussed him.

I never asked you to give all these "Do you honestly think I would do X as scum" posts. I find it hard to believe you're giving them simply because I brought up us playing together in a previous game earlier this game.

So far I am possibly willing to accept that town!Adorable simply tunnel visions on Noraa, ignoring defense of her, and then also ignores Fred because you townleaned him. I am thinking about how Noraa was scummy for things besides your crazy meta, which might have contributed to it. And I am not sure you call me a terrible player if you are scum.

Some scum bussed him probably, sure. There's four other scum and nine people on the wagon, after all. I do think it was much more optimal for scum to push their early lead by not bussing. At least they should have tried to do that before falling back on bussing. When town is starting to get apathetic... it just starts to feel like a no-brainer. If you want scum that looks like an obvious bus on Fred, look no further than shellyc dipping on and off the wagon and also speaking to Fred exactly how I expect scum!Shelly to do to try and get towncredit off a partner coming under fire.

[Fidget]

i do not really see the case on fredrick myself

If Adorable is town this is where I'm interested in instead.. I already went over that I think the blank defense of Fred is suspicious because it came after a couple of posters were defending Fred:

also this fred wagon is ridiculous. the people on the fred wagon prove that fred is town 90%

I think there is a good shot fredrick is town and we are being snowed by strong scum players

Granted, there was a lot of heat on Fred at the same time, too. I am still suspicious that this was the only message Theta wanted to give at the time.

i am perfectly fine with adorable being handed the scroll

i am very confident

which to be perfectly honest
given my past history with reads
probably means i am wrong here

This is also worrying me a little bit given Theta has been tunneling Adorable probably the entire length of the game and yet is hedging her bets at the end.

I understand worrying your read is wrong (That's kinda what I'm doing right now), but it's not like Theta is engaging with Adorable or giving alternatives or anything. Feels a tad disingenuous to push hard for Adorable, have second thoughts, but still confidently say "Kill Adorable" anyway.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Bell, how do you feel about some of those combos? Tayl0r + Shelly rings false to me, can't say why. Fidget + Shelly doesn't ring false, that sounds plausible. I'm particularly interested in thoughts on Theta + Shelly and Titus + any active "remaining" slot.

Unrelatedly, Adorable posts like someone who is trying to write a persuasive essay that they aren't feeling and don't agree with. I really hope I'm not the only one who notices the big, clunky, mechanical (as in machine-like) posting there.

[MURDERCAT]

mush how do you feel about the idea that LLD got scroll to avoid a shelly shot?

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Smells plausible to me. Actually, it's my preferred theory given where all the other general townreads were looking.

Not cursing Pooky might also suggest Tayl0r defense, though more weakly. It certainly makes me want to hit in the Tayl0r/Pooky area soon.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

By the way: reason the scum might hit Pooky here is similar to why they'd hit LLD. Active player with low information, lack of engagement, and presumably scumreads outside of the scumteam. LLD was going to be getting revisited, had only two notable scum reads, one of which flipped green, and didn't have the apparent motivation to really get back to obvtowning. All of which combines to make her an extremely interesting and informative slot to hit.

Pooky shared most of this, except both of Pooky's scumreads were still live. So Pooky's scum or at least one of Tayl0r or Noraa is red.

[MURDERCAT]

@Hectic can you include DrippingGoofball in the playerlist?

[MURDERCAT]

Alright. Good night.

HURT: Lady Lamdadelta

The only person who didn't post in thread between these posts is fidget

[MURDERCAT]

HURT: Lady Lamdadelta

I don't want this blood on my hands if you are town Fred

Her blood is all over your paws if he is town. It's on his, too, of course, but I don't really see how choice could be attributed to anything but you.

I believe Fred is scum because he had no build up to that vote. I don't see why town!Fred abandons Adorable and Noraa.

Shooting LLD is not terrible IMO

Congratulations, you have managed to make yourself null read by me when I was townreading you earlier.

Oh yeah also it conflicts with this. I think your paws are safe.

Just to be sure I'm going to wait a moment, though. Wait, that's not how the scroll flips work. Nyeh.

Fidget was around when adorable was hit with the hurt tag, but then didn't post again until the change. This is an hour after LLD was targeted, so right at deadline

[MURDERCAT]

Timer: (expired on 2020-11-07 04:04:49)

Ok, it looks like an hour before deadline

[MURDERCAT]

I'll be honset I've been completely ignoring fidget this game because there's too many people to really try to read deeply and I'm not going to look that closely until I get the scroll. But I will probably look closer now

[Gloria Cleary]

Re: MUSH

This:

Spoiler:

Reminder that Shelly tried to start /two/ counterwagons. One was just as Fred was getting started, the other was at the stall point of the wagon.

What stops Shelly and Taylor from being wrong town though?

Nothing stops it. I've already been wrong once this game (Hopkirk -- I was fairly sure Toog was town but was feeling time pressure, and I needed to dig into Vax before I had an opinion, then that became irrelevant). No one is immune to being wrong, or we could pick that person to do all the science for the rest of us.

I would have thought that was self-evident, though, so I didn't say it. Also, what's the point? Confidence lets me get ahead of the game on a red flip, and honestly if we don't hit scum this pass I think we're in for a long, grueling, miserable late game loss anyway, so confidence also keeps my interest alive.

I do think that scum is in the townblocs and sitting pretty, though. I think Fred's wagon stalled and they had over-distanced from each other too hard to create a useful narrative for building a counterwagon in time. Hence being in the townblocs -- we have a lot of prominent players who don't like each other but get a ton of townreads from the outside. Lurkers could naked-vote a different wagon, or Adorable could do another pass at Noraa though I think that ship has sailed -- oh wait, Adorable DID do that, so sure, Adorable can be scum, whatever.

But this doesn't account well for many -- you have to presume most of the scum is in lurkslots (which makes yesterday look like a freak coincidence where we precisely miss the few scum in the category) or that most of the scum is in consensus scumreads (which is weird since it's mostly consensus town slots getting those out of trouble, e.g. me with Noraa) or that the scum has at least some presence in townblocs. Which means that our townreads are going to be covering for 2-4 scum.

IF I am right about that, we need to rely on scrolled town shooting from the hip and taking no direction in the process, because scum is inside the town decision loop and building our consensus for us. If we let town help direct scroll-passes, scum that has near-universal townreads gets to control where it lands, and we never hit two scum in a day.

It also means we need to start doing serious VCA, and paying close attention to the context of that VCA. Some examples, right?

Shelly looks awful here if Fred flips red, not because of her position in the vote-counts, but because she jumped on, off, back on, back off of the wagon (and I don't recall her getting back on at the end) and kept trying to get attention spotlighting her when she hopped off.
Adorable looks sorta bad here if Fred's red, because of the eleventh hour Noraa push long after everyone else has sort of ruled Noraa out (though I'm reconsidering for the reasons I'm going into here).
I and Bell (but more me) look pretty bad in a world where Fred flips green, because we were the /primary drivers/ of this wagon, especially me. I think this is less useful for overall sorting, because I do believe my reasons for the scumread were damned good, and it's the ...what, second time Bell has shown animation about a wagon? Maybe even first. Also the first day's scroll hits show that town can't find town very well here, which does also diminish the degree to which we look bad. Or I'm biased and will be eliminated afterwards, but as I said: confidence, etc.!

This:

Spoiler:

No aggressive resistance to it, Tayl0r. Lots of more or less passive resistance, though. Resistance doesn't always take the form of "STOP NOW OR ELSE".

Shelly trying to pull votes onto different wagons (twice), Adorable attempting to resurrect a long-dead wagon, Gloria requiring a knockdown case that tickled her specific reads, MURDERCAT initially trying to resist softly then realizing that maybe their reads suck, Pooky trying to put more attention on you and themselves while the wagon was at a lull point. Add in you and Fred, and yeah, that's way more players than there are scum, but keep in mind scum distancing as well here -- defending too directly ties players to their scumbuddies. In a case where that scumbuddy isn't likely to go down, it's fairly safe. But Fred's wagon was more of a when than an if: his predecessor was Maximum Scum and his play was scummy even by the unique standards you have to read him by.

So passive defense is more likely for scum in such a position, because if they defend too hard it guarantees town goes 2-for-1 instead of 1-for-2. The scum team wants nothing less than that, because that's the path to a town win at this state (where we've already gone one day without hitting scum).

And this:

Spoiler:

For me, Fidget, Fred coming up red makes you more likely to be scum. Mostly because for the first time this game, you jumped -- and you were the hammer vote.

It's a minor shift, but significant. I see a Fidget+Shelly+Fred world as more likely than a Fidget+any-combo-without-Fred one. That said, I have other places I'd want to check before you.

Were the quotes that I was thinking of. Didn't pay attention to the third quote until Gloria raised her concerns and I looked back to consider Fidget. It's possible that scum might've thought Fidget was in danger there because of that, but I'd still say the overall message is that shelly would be receiving the scroll if MUSH got it.

Well, very clearly, Fred!scum=Noraa!town, since there’s no way scum!Fred gives the scroll to LLD otherwise, so hopefully she’s reading this and doesn’t kill town!Noraa.

[MURDERCAT]

I kinda wanted to dayvig Shelly in a second game but if I can't do that then I guess LLD can do it

At least you got to post in this game Shelly

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Fidget's a plausible one to me. I can see a Shelly+Fidget+Fred team. The immediate reaction for me thinking on that team is Adorable, Theta, Pooky, Tayl0r all fit to varying degrees, but Tayl0r takes some serious nudging to fit and can't pair with Pooky at all. That said, Tayl0r+Fred and Tayl0r+Theta look promising from a quick ISO skim, even though it feels inexplicably wrong to pair Tayl0r and shelly at all and Fidget+Tayl0r is sorta clunky too. Take Tayl0r out and the other three can all pair up in the last two scum slots pretty solidly. So Fidget is a fairly promising scum slot, though I'd hit elsewhere. I feel like the scumteam accidentally opened up their playbook to the town, which means we can get major POE off of red flips. So I think we should focus on extremely highly scum-like slots here, and leave middling slots like Fidget till later. (Or we can let Fidget grab scroll 3 this go around, I'm ok with that too, though I'd still prefer the top scum likelihood slots to Fidget. Up to LLD of course.)

[Bell]

Bell, how do you feel about some of those combos? Tayl0r + Shelly rings false to me, can't say why. Fidget + Shelly doesn't ring false, that sounds plausible. I'm particularly interested in thoughts on Theta + Shelly and Titus + any active "remaining" slot.

Unrelatedly, Adorable posts like someone who is trying to write a persuasive essay that they aren't feeling and don't agree with. I really hope I'm not the only one who notices the big, clunky, mechanical (as in machine-like) posting there.

I iso'd Taylor and Shelly and I don't particularly see an issue with Taylor or ShellyC being scum or scum together.

In regards to Adorable's writing style, probably should Meta him to verify whether he usually writes like that.

[Gloria Cleary]

Spoiler:

When I am scum reading a player, I vote for my scum reads and town should always vote on their scum reads. Scum are the ones who have to be careful on their reads.

Yeah, I know you're gonna vote for your scumreads, I'm not arguing against that. Your reasoning in your vote post

Noraa's play has been confusing me and that 180 she did earlier on me when Toogeloo was holding the scroll was sus. Her post on #3942 about Hopkirk also looked like scum shading him. So from what I gathered, scum Noraa likes to put pressure on players and she has been doing that in this game and town Noraa doesn't put pressure.

VOTE: Noraa

was utter insanity. When Gloria brings up meta that is more reasonable for evaluating Noraa

Could someone tell me why they are townreading Noraa or Tayl0r Swift? I am absolutely not.

Noraa’s emotional range is much greater here than in any of her scumgames + she’s making detailed, nuanced readslists. She didn’t do that in ANY of her scumgames and here, she’s doing that like it’s going out of style almost.

So, either Noraa’s suddenly switched up her scum meta or she’s town. The readslist also reads super genuine and not coached, so I’m obviously a lot more confident on Noraa!town than Tayl0r, especially after skimming The Trials but I still think it could be playstyle.

I’ve already explained Tayl0r but she should definitely be able to give reasons for that read, I did.

I have had some bad experience with meta and most of the time I don't focus on meta anymore. In my last micro game I played someone was getting town read for meta and that player turned out to be scum. I was getting scum read for meta and I was town. I have said earlier on why I scum read Noraa. That read list Noraa made when she put me as newbtown gave me a bit of a pause and I started wondering maybe Noraa could be town and if she was scum, I would have assumed she would continue on trying to get me eliminated and then later she did a 180 on me. On my first completed scum game I also made a read list and I didn't get coached. Noraa's play really has been confusing me.

You dismiss it based off of "bad experiences with meta". Gloria saying that Noraa is out of her emotional scumrange is very much what I am thinking, too. Noraa "not putting pressure" as town is not a thing. You are only accepting meta that helps you scumread Noraa. Why?

During this time frame you are also ignoring Frederick in favor of talking about Noraa and asking me for my reads. You have never had Zdenek/Fred on the table this game. You dismissed my read as "If Fred is scum, then Adorable is scum", rather than actually respond to it.

You are calling me a bad town player for this read, but I am only calling it as I see it.

A weak/bad reason for a read doesn’t make that player scum. Toog wanted to kill me, God only knows why, probably because of my Pooky vote and he was town. It’s the mindset behind that vote that makes that player scum/town. I seriously doubt that Fred HURT Adorable for wifom, much more likely he just changed his mind or was pressured into doing so.

In either case, he was clearly fine with Noraa dying but not Fidget.

[MURDERCAT]

I still think Tayl0r is lean town for me, but I guess if I reeval Pooky I'd have to reeval Tayl0r.

But I was feeling that Pooky/Shelly made a lot of sense so if Shelly/Fidget/Fred makes sense probably Pooky/Shelly/Fidget/Fred also makes sense

[MURDERCAT]

(Adorable is a she)

[MURDERCAT]

I still think Tayl0r is lean town for me, but I guess if I reeval Pooky I'd have to reeval Tayl0r.

But I was feeling that Pooky/Shelly made a lot of sense so if Shelly/Fidget/Fred makes sense probably Pooky/Shelly/Fidget/Fred also makes sense

@Pooky if this is right I'm still claiming to be good btw

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Remember to keep your possible teams open a bit, MURDERCAT. I would hate to have town charge down a blind path of a scumteam based on this (still unresolved) flip and the two obvious next steps and their own preconceptions to this point.

That said: I'm not too upset by that set of 4. If we have to take a gamble with a flip, I really would like to hit Pooky, because Pooky red I feel clears two slots outright (Noraa + Tayl0r). I think Tayl0r red clears Pooky and says nothing on Noraa, and Noraa red tells us fuck all. Pooky is a serious contender for best info flip, and has some degree of scum quotient as well. Clear two slots and treat our obvtowns as confs and we might be able to purely POE it to the finish line.

[Gloria Cleary]

Tentative don’t kill list.
Bell, Noraa, mush, murder.
Hesitant: Gloria, adorable.

Remaining: Titus, tswift, shellyc, Fidget, dgb, pookie, theta.

I think you’re missing some people? I know you forgot UNOwen.