Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[Infinity 324]

Not cop, I’m pretty sure everyone who could be cop checked in?

[Infinity 324]

Dave, I'd also like you to talk about your reads.

I think claiming JK unprompted when liltih did is a pretty good play as scum, it could've gotten mena limmed and it's pretty low risk.

[petapan]

ahh fuck it, maybe we should just massclaim

S_S? thoughts?

Like I said. First massclaim cop/not cop, then we'll figure out what to do from there.

Not cop.

not cop, if that wasn't clear enough already. only person it could be is dave and i don't think dave is cop.

Dave, I'd also like you to talk about your reads.

I think claiming JK unprompted when liltih did is a pretty good play as scum, it could've gotten mena limmed and it's pretty low risk.

weren't you...just saying it was unlikely yesterday?

[Infinity 324]

I'm reconsidering because of things I can't talk about atm. I'm still not sure it's the most likely, but maybe someone suggested the play to her.

[Infinity 324]

Like, PoE is getting pretty real for me, and if lilith is town it's the most wrong I've been on a scumread in a long time. Every time she posts I want to lim her.

[petapan]

I'm reconsidering because of things I can't talk about atm. I'm still not sure it's the most likely, but maybe someone suggested the play to her.

no one here seems that sort of gutsy and if you were going to do it menalque seems a rather poor target

[Infinity 324]

I guess? I think she wanted to claim her real JK target in order to not get CCed later on. Like I do think the claim is +town for her overall but that’s not enough at this point.

[Hoopla]

I guess? I think she wanted to claim her real JK target in order to not get CCed later on. Like I do think the claim is +town for her overall but that’s not enough at this point.

i'm not usually one for sheeping dead townies in any big way, but skitter's read on lilith surely needs to be factored into the equation. it's probably tilting me in the direction of limming there, but it means there's something screwy happening mechanically which is the main feeling holding me back.

like, for lilith to be scum, it means scum either no-killed N1 with the intention of faking a guilty on menalque (if so, why do it on menalque - he's not exactly a sitting duck).

OR a doc made a save N1, then scum came up with that plan on the fly at the start of D2. that's a rather creative line to cook up on the spot. if this is the case, i feel it probably rules out certain scumteams that don't have that "thinking-on-your-feet" creative zeal in them (as there's no way lilith thinks up that on her own). JV & BB would be the main characters i'd rule out from thinking this up, with players like SS, infinity & maybe dave as potential scum mastermiinds.

either way, for a mechanically minded player like me, probabilistically, it still feels like we're veering into the realm of conspiracy, but given we've mis-limmed thrice, and there are no obvious standout scum (or scum pairing combos), i'm willing to entertain conspiracies.

[Infinity 324]

I’ll take it as a compliment that you think I could’ve come up with that play, but you’re overestimating me

[Something_Smart]

there's no way lilith thinks up that on her own

what makes you say this?

[Hoopla]

how's this for a conspiracy:

lilith and menalque are actually

both

scum. they no-kill N1 with the intention of lilith "claiming a pseudo-guilty on menalque"

knowing

that the "guilty" won't be enough to get menalque eliminated D2, but in turn have effectively distanced and ruled out anyone ever considering them as a scum pairing.

...if this is actually what happened N1, just give them the scummy right now.

[Hoopla]

there's no way lilith thinks up that on her own

what makes you say this?

she's barely been present all game.

it seems to me that "faking a pseudo-guilty" in that spot would be such a keenly acute play that displays a level of awareness of the current gamestate that i just haven't seen from her.

i guess the counterargument to that is, faking a pseudo-guilty on a player like menalque in and of itself implies a lack of awareness.

either way, if lilith is scum, i don't think that play came from her brain.

[petapan]

i'm not sure anyone currently alive is likely to think of that play as scum and to be honest i'm not sure we have a doctor so i'm not sure it's worth discussing lilith today

[Infinity 324]

either way, for a mechanically minded player like me, probabilistically, it still feels like we're veering into the realm of conspiracy, but given we've mis-limmed thrice, and there are no obvious standout scum (or scum pairing combos), i'm willing to entertain conspiracies.

Also hoopla is mindmelding with me too much to be scum here.

[Hoopla]

i take it nobody is claiming cop? i think that was everyone.

the question is, does scum gamble on cop still being available at 4/5/7, risking a valuable pick on a purely preventative play when roles with more utility are available, or are they more likely to take a flyer on it low in the draft when they're unlikely to get anything useful

tricky question. i mean, cop still has some value for scum in early picks as it's paired with 1-shot redirector. if scum aren't going to go for vigs, picking 1-shot redirector is a pretty cool role to create chaos (plus blocking a powerful town role). i think it's likelier in the 4/5/7 bracket than the lower picks, but that's just intuitive speculation.

we'll probably be able to narrow it down more with more claims, which is another reason to complete the massclaim.

[petapan]

i'm just gonna say it: i think not_mafia is probably the neighborizer, because virtually no one else in the game would have neighborized dunnstral.

[Infinity 324]

Peta who’s scum?

[Hoopla]

i'm not sure anyone currently alive is likely to think of that play as scum and to be honest i'm not sure we have a doctor so i'm not sure it's worth discussing lilith today

if there's no doctor, that would be a spanner in the works, as it implies that lilith must have stopped the kill or scum deliberately no-killed.

whereas if there is a doctor, it gives a little more equity to lilith being scum as it enables universes where there was a doc save and lilith fakeclaims a guilty, without there needing to be a scum no-kill N1 (which seems like a pretty low% play).

problem is, outing a potential doctor now to get more info about lilith's alignment doesn't seem worth it.

[Not_Mafia]

I am the neighbouriser

[petapan]

Peta who’s scum?

probably you or menalque lol

i'm not sure anyone currently alive is likely to think of that play as scum and to be honest i'm not sure we have a doctor so i'm not sure it's worth discussing lilith today

if there's no doctor, that would be a spanner in the works, as it implies that lilith must have stopped the kill or scum deliberately no-killed.

whereas if there is a doctor, it gives a little more equity to lilith being scum as it enables universes where there was a doc save and lilith fakeclaims a guilty, without there needing to be a scum no-kill N1 (which seems like a pretty low% play).

problem is, outing a potential doctor now to get more info about lilith's alignment doesn't seem worth it.

the doctor is essentially worthless given the remaining roles on the town side. no value in staying hidden if there are no roles worth protecting (do not tell me a 1-shot watcher is that valuable)

[Hoopla]

the doctor is essentially worthless given the remaining roles on the town side. no value in staying hidden if there are no roles worth protecting (do not tell me a 1-shot watcher is that valuable)

this is a near-certainty to be town and worth protecting:

I am the neighbouriser

or at the very least, people's solves shouldn't include this slot.

[Menalque]

you know what would be really funny

[petapan]

I am the neighbouriser

yeah, figured. JV neighborized uncrowned night 1, right?


minimum 1 in 5 in {me, infinity, menalque, dave, smart}.

[Something_Smart]

i'm just gonna say it: i think not_mafia is probably the neighborizer, because virtually no one else in the game would have neighborized dunnstral.

Lol.

[Menalque]

you know what would be really funny