Mini 627 - Riverworld Smalltown - Over!!!

armlx · Post Post #1000 (ISO) » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:45 am

Above post, plus the consideration of whether NN being alive tomorrow FORCES a lynch on him any more then M4yh3m being alive.

shaft.ed · Post Post #1001 (ISO) » Wed Aug 27, 2008 12:08 pm

armlx wrote:Above post, plus the consideration of whether NN being alive tomorrow FORCES a lynch on him any more then M4yh3m being alive.

I though you said you ran the numbers on Mayhem earlier and the double vote had little effect without scum partners.

armlx · Post Post #1002 (ISO) » Wed Aug 27, 2008 12:16 pm

I though you said you ran the numbers on Mayhem earlier and the double vote had little effect without scum partners.

I don't remember saying that. I said if he was town that it was only relevant if the last scum left was dumb with their kills or somehow a JK lived to night with 3 alive.

WCS

10 alive, lynch NN town, Alabaska + Shaft.ed town, Mayhem scum

5 alive tomorrow. M4yhem is one. Scum can team up and QL, but prob won't. If we don't lynch M4yh3m, we have to hit on a protective role if he is scum to not lose to the double vote.

Not sure if thats worse or better. Probably better as its more winnable.

shaft.ed · Post Post #1003 (ISO) » Wed Aug 27, 2008 12:31 pm

armlx wrote:5 alive tomorrow. M4yhem is one. Scum can team up and QL, but prob won't. If we don't lynch M4yh3m, we have to hit on a protective role if he is scum to not lose to the double vote.

So you're saying 5 alive, maf/SK lynch goes to night 3 vs 1. Mayhem kills down to 2 v 1 and wins next day. But this only matters if there's a double kill which won't happen if Mayhem is scum because he will be jailed. In fact if there is a double kill either both jailed players are cleared or IAUN is the last mafioso which is incredibly unlikely unless he purposefully planned the JK, which is even more unlikely because it only clears him if Twomz is the dead player (unless there is kill flavor that I missed somewhere in the introduction).

NabNab's ability to pick up an extra life seems like more of a threat to me. And impacts the town negatively regardless of the kill scenarios tonight.

armlx · Post Post #1004 (ISO) » Wed Aug 27, 2008 12:42 pm

Mmmk. I can agree there. Mayhem is neutralized if we aren't dumb later (ie. hold votes until a lynch is absolute and play around him being scum).

Unvote

I intend to vote NN once we move on.

M4yhem · Post Post #1005 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:52 am

Whatever.

So why can't we lynch bob? He's not cleared is he? He could be mafia if Twonz did the kill, he could be SK regardless.

Cyberbob · Post Post #1006 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 2:13 am

M4yhem wrote:Whatever.

So why can't we lynch bob? He's not cleared is he? He could be mafia if Twonz did the kill, he could be SK regardless.

Most people in the game aren't cleared. Do you have anything on me besides your confidence measured in percentages?

curiouskarmadog · Post Post #1007 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 2:36 am

Gone between 08/29 until 08/31, Bachelor Party

armlx · Post Post #1008 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 4:22 am

So why can't we lynch bob? He's not cleared is he? He could be mafia if Twonz did the kill, he could be SK regardless.

Because if he is scum he's fucked, if he is town the other scum is.

M4yhem · Post Post #1009 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 5:09 am

Cyberbob wrote: Most people in the game aren't cleared. Do you have anything on me besides your confidence measured in percentages?

Your general attitude.

The fact that you attacked me when I made my case against him and were slow to get on his wagon.

Your role pm.

How is he fucked Armlx? Fake tracking will be pretty easy tonight since we all know what the power roles are doing and it's not like the other scum will tell us if he gets it wrong.

armlx · Post Post #1010 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 5:10 am

Your general attitude.

Lol.

Fake tracking will be pretty easy tonight since we all know what the power roles are doing and it's not like the other scum will tell us if he gets it wrong.

Too many confirmeds to start with.

shaft.ed · Post Post #1011 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 5:20 am

How is he fucked Armlx? Fake tracking will be pretty easy tonight since we all know what the power roles are doing and it's not like the other scum will tell us if he gets it wrong.

If Bob is the SK:
-He has already cleared armlx and IAUN. He must kill TSPN tonight. Rishi will be the only other unjailed player. Thus he has to frame Rishi for killing TSPN. If town lynches Rishi, Bob must be scum. If town lynches Bob, he is dead.

If Bob is the mafia:
-He has already cleared armlx and IAUN. He may kill any of them tonight, more likely to go with one of the "confirmed" players. He can either claim a fake result on Rishi and suffer the same consequences as above, or leave TSPN to take the blame for the kill. If he clears Rishi and TSPN is lynched, Bob is the de facto killer.

Either way scumBob is lynched tommorow or the day after.

armlx · Post Post #1012 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 5:21 am

Yeah, that. I'm lazy and didn't feel like working it out.

M4yhem · Post Post #1013 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 5:27 am

Iamusername is the only confirmed no-scum.

You're not SK, neither's the sweatpantsninja but you could both be mafia.

That leaves Claus, Shafted, Alabaska, Nabnab, bob, rishi.

Tomorrow we'll have you, bob, rishi, claus, Iamusername, thesweatpantninja and me (except two of these people might be killed.)

If there's a mafia kill and a sk kill, me 'n whoever else is roleblocked, according to the plan, will be confirmed.

Even so, that's only three confimed as far as I can see.

Unvote, Vote:NabNab

. To get it over with.

shaft.ed · Post Post #1014 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 5:56 am

M4yhem wrote:Iamusername is the only confirmed no-scum.

You're not SK, neither's the sweatpantsninja but you could both be mafia.

That leaves Claus, Shafted, Alabaska, Nabnab, bob, rishi.

Tomorrow we'll have you, bob, rishi, claus, Iamusername, thesweatpantninja and me (except two of these people might be killed.)

If there's a mafia kill and a sk kill, me 'n whoever else is roleblocked, according to the plan, will be confirmed.

Even so, that's only three confimed as far as I can see.

Unvote, Vote:NabNab
. To get it over with.

With two kills the conformations will be:

Mayhem (town and alive)
Claus (town and alive*could be SK if Rishi is mafia and kills IAUN)
TSPN (not SK)
IAUN (not mafia, town if Cyberbob is dead*as town)
armlx (not mafia if me and Alabaska are dead, town if Cyberbob is dead*as town)
Rishi (unconfirmed)
Cyberbob (unconfirmed)

First off we can conclude TSPN will be dead if there are two kills. Thus the SK and mafia would have to be among IAUN, armlx, Rishi or Cyberbob. Also one of IAUN, armlx, Rishi or Cyberbob would have to be dead if there are two kills. So amongst a pool of three players you will have the two scum.

iamausername · Post Post #1015 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 5:58 am

Yeah, but if there's a mafia kill and an SK kill, they'll only be five alive, which makes three confirmed pretty damn helpful.

Of course, more likely there'll only be two confirmed out of five, since my being confirmed makes me quite likely to die tonight. If TSPN is alive, the SK is caught, so he'll probably die too.

That leaves armlx, Cyberbob, Rishi, Mayhem, Claus.

Mayhem & Claus are now confirmed town from my jailing. armlx can't be mafia, because he can't have killed Alabaska/shafted and made another kill.

If Rishi is mafia and made a kill, he's caught, because Claus will know if I jailed him or not, and the only reason I wouldn't is if Rishi doesn't motivate me. If not, Cyberbob is mafia.

Still got to figure out which of armlx/Rishi is SK, since the tracking result that confirmed armlx as not SK is probably fake in this case. But still, this is a worst case scenario, the likelihood is that we'll catch scum with even more certainty.

iamausername · Post Post #1016 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 5:58 am

Oh yeah, I'm not confirmed not SK either, if Cyberbob is mafia. So, swap me for armlx, same applies.

armlx · Post Post #1017 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 6:01 am

M4yh3m is so scum. Honestly, nice pre-emptive hammer there.

That said, its pretty irrel. The plan just blows the game to pieces.

armlx · Post Post #1018 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 6:01 am

EBWODP: NVM, that wasn't hammer. Still think he is scum.

shaft.ed · Post Post #1019 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 6:01 am

IAUN wrote:If Rishi is mafia and made a kill, he's caught, because Claus will know if I jailed him or not, and the only reason I wouldn't is if Rishi doesn't motivate me. If not, Cyberbob is mafia.

This fails however, because if Rishi didn't motivate you, and Claus didn't get jailed then Claus is no longer confirmed and could attempt to submit a kill. The interesting thing will be that both scum will know this happened, so I don't see how mafiaRishi can avoid motivating you there will be too many loose ends. He'd be forced to no kill, just as mafiaarmlx would.

iamausername · Post Post #1020 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 6:07 am

Yeah, same if TSPN is mafia; the SK might not want to kill him in that case, but since the SK doesn't know if he's mafia, he has to kill him.

M4yhem · Post Post #1021 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 6:45 am

armlx wrote:M4yh3m is so scum. Honestly, nice pre-emptive hammer there.

That said, its pretty irrel. The plan just blows the game to pieces.

Dude, what?

Even if I had hammered what would be the problem? It's not like Claus can do much analysis and NabNab's dead whatever he says so what is there to wait for? Let's go to night, get me cleared so I don't have to put up with your harassment anymore and then win the game.

armlx · Post Post #1022 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 6:46 am

t's not like Claus can do much analysis and NabNab's dead whatever he says so what is there to wait for?

NN's analysis of plan/players and what not.

Cyberbob · Post Post #1023 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 10:38 am

M4yhem, you really know how to take all the fun out of a game. Just saying.

NabakovNabakov · Post Post #1024 (ISO) » Thu Aug 28, 2008 10:44 am

Ok, I still haven't read the thread, but you guys seem to have a pretty airtight plan there. Who am I to fight it?

Just in case it might change your minds, I am in fact the SK, and if you let me live/kill tonight, dumb luck might just strike twice and I'll bag the last mafioso (probably shaft.ed btw). I could even absorb a protown power and start helping out that way too. In the unlikely situation that you kill me now and need me later, you'll all be very sorry you didn't give me a chance to reform, and I'll have a good laugh.

Also, mad props to armlx on the double roleblock/double track idea; I never saw it coming.