PookyTheMagicalBear v Flavor Leaf (Game Over)

[Ircher]

Bell no result on Toog Night 1.
DEB no result on on Ircher Night 1.

I'm nitpicking, but it's an important one. They did not claim to receive "No Result" results as that implies they were blocked (or targeted an Ascetic). They claimed to receive "Has not killed yet" results.

Ok I find this logic compelling at least
I still don't really get what the fascination with creature is though.

What do you mean, "fascination with Creature?" I would like for you to look back at Creature's Day 2 posts and tell me what you think of them.

Still think we can just let night kills sort this out, scum can't let detective continue to live I think.

I'm going to point out that if we don't sort it today, we're potentially sorting them at LimLo, and that's far worse of a time. I think scum would be willing to risk a night or two to keep the two slots up in the air.

As much as I'm spiteful at everyone scum reading me for "aVoIdInG tHe BeLl WaGoN" even though I have been obviously town throughout the game

Maybe I forgot or haven't been paying enough attention, but I haven't seen this. I've seen people put you down as a poe-scum read, and I think that's perfectly reasonable given your scum equity (via the draft) and play so far in the game. (I imagine Pooky putting you in the vig pool is within the same line of thinking.)

As much as I'm spiteful at everyone scum reading me for "aVoIdInG tHe BeLl WaGoN" even though I have been obviously town throughout the game

Bell is probably scum and should be the vote for today

So you're spiteful for having been scumread because you avoided the Bell wagon, even though you actually admit Bell is likely scum.

K.

- Norwee

This really isn't fair to Spiffeh. As pichu just noted, he was town reading Bell for the most part up until Bell got CC'd by DEB.

So you have the burden of convincing me that
1. Noraa is town
and
2. It is important the Bell dies today in particular.

1) I don't think that's going to happen. You strongly believe in your scum read there.
2) Yes because we don't want to resolve this in LimLo, and Flavor Leaf likes to make higher risk plays. Keeping both alive for a night or two is one of those (and that potentially takes us to LimLo.)

You can't disappear after high activity day 1 leading to a mislynch. She's remained active but allowed her reads to ebb and flow with the current game state. One mislynch on Day 1 that she headlines, and her town reads are becoming scum reads because she can read the room and see what people want.

Yes, this is a thing townies do. It's called reevaluation. Aside from the last part (which is really subjective by the way), i don't see how this is scum-indicative /especially/ for someone like mastina who tends to do this reevaluation stuff a lot (as both alignments).

Look at your comment and look at what she is doing, and it actually matches up. She is actively lurking and letting the Bell/DEB thing happen, just like you think scum!mastina would.

She's not actively lurking at all, what?! Just because she isn't posting every 5 minutes doesn't mean she's lurking; I think she has made more posts than you have this day phase. Aside from that, I'm pretty sure she has given opinions on Bell, but she feels more strongly in Creature rn hence why she focuses her attention there.

It's actively lurking. Posting enough that she keeps a presence, but her posts amount to no push and actually acquiesce to the reads if the vocal majority while still looking like her own. She prepping for Day 3 already.

I'm gonna assume you are just throwing out buzzwords because this is not what active lurking means.

i think his posting this phase has been significantly better than d1 that's for sure.

And I think the exact opposite. His day 1 posting was eh but not really outside his town range. His Day 2 posts include several awful takes and constant rehashing of the nonsensical take that today is going to be a repeat of Day 1. Let's not forget the comment about saving Battle Mage as well.

At bottom of page 160.

[MURDERCAT]

Aw yeah
it's happening dot gif

[MURDERCAT]

Ok I find this logic compelling at least
I still don't really get what the fascination with creature is though.

What do you mean, "fascination with Creature?" I would like for you to look back at Creature's Day 2 posts and tell me what you think of them.

Still think we can just let night kills sort this out, scum can't let detective continue to live I think.

I'm going to point out that if we don't sort it today, we're potentially sorting them at LimLo, and that's far worse of a time. I think scum would be willing to risk a night or two to keep the two slots up in the air.

So you have the burden of convincing me that
1. Noraa is town
and
2. It is important the Bell dies today in particular.

1) I don't think that's going to happen. You strongly believe in your scum read there.
2) Yes because we don't want to resolve this in LimLo, and Flavor Leaf likes to make higher risk plays. Keeping both alive for a night or two is one of those (and that potentially takes us to LimLo.)

Ircher this is slippery slope BS and you should know better. The decision is whether we elim them today or elim them tomorrow. The worst case, given that we are currently at 10:4, is to get another 3 killed townies leaving us at 7:4. This isn't Elo because if we elim town the vig (if alive) just doesn't shoot that night. And there's still good odds that 1. we hit other scum 2. the vig hits scum or can't fire or 3. the alive detective gets a guilty (or scum resolves it for us through NK).

RE Creature, my read on them has nothing to do with their posts and everything about how people are approaching him, so I'll read through the iso but no one has actually pointed to much of anything other than the same BS that got BM killed so I don't think I'll be convinced.

[Ircher]

I'd vote for Ydrasse too

I suspect any number of Murdercat/Creature/Ydrasse right now

I think this is a good pool. High likelihood of 1/3. Good chance of 2/3. 3/3 is probably not likely.

What do you think I'm doing rn?

Honest answer: I think you're randomly quoting posts to look busy.

[Is there a point you're trying to make with that quote tower, Bell?]

This orecisely. Bell complained about my posts being IIoA, but what Bell is doing now seems to fall under that category as well.

i dont think he can ate this much as scum

by this much i mean he cant ate for shit as scum :/

I believe it's possible. I admit I don't really have much experience with Bell, so my take on this matters much less.

like I don't think bell would even care that much about living if he was a red role pm.

he'd just be like

"ok you guys got me"

I don't see why you think this.

I'm thinking about the WK15 votes early and whether scum would be apathetic about low hanging fruit. Or were kept off by Ircher.

???

i played with bell in antechamber and epilogue and both times he was very uncomfortable and low effort as scum.

I think you have to be a bit careful with meta ad it can and does warp and shift over time. It is even more likely to change if people strongly believe you have a particular habit as town or scum (like using excessive AtE.)

Do you think I'm just randomly quoting walls of brief mentions of NK15 in this huge game.

To an extent, yes, that's precisely what it seems you are doing.

lol. Pichu. You think I don't get mad at being scum read as town.
Meta fail.

MaybeI'm wrong, but I don't think that's what pichu is arguing. I think pichu is arguing that you do the stuff as scum /as well as/ town.

ON TOP OF THE WORLD
sorry Bell
i told you i was really confident when i made the case and i'm like 99% confident now

Yeah, my confidence on scum!Bell has increased significantly as well. It was like 67% (in magnitude); now, it's like 92% (in magnitude).

I looked through the mininormal list btw.
The closest I found was Mason, mason, town back up mason.

Masons/neighbors don't count for obvious reasons....

1) I think we should let Bell/DEB resolve through night actions, at least for now.
2) I really hate how people are jumping on Creature, it just feels icky to me.

1) No, we should resolve it today else it's likely we resolve it never.
2) Why does it feel icky? What have you liked from Creature D2?

Ircher this is slippery slope BS and you should know better. The decision is whether we elim them today or elim them tomorrow.

Okay, first of all, if we don't elim them today and they're both still alive tomorrow (highly probable from my pov), that basically turns tomorrow into a repeat of today. That's not productive at all. Furthermore, regardless of what the collective may decide here, there's going to people still focusing on Bell (and DEB) and distracting from whatever else we decide to do (and I wouldn't fault them for doing so). That's also not in town's interest because a split focus like that is bound to end in a suboptimal elimination. Last note: do you trust this game to follow through if we don't lim one of them today? I most certainly do not.

RE Creature, my read on them has nothing to do with their posts and everything about how people are approaching him,

This generally isn't a good reason for town reading a player especially when (at least imo) Creature's posts suggest otherwise.

To bottom of post 4227.

[Blade Dancer]

Official Vote Count 2.12

Polar Bear Express

(1): MURDERCAT

Creature

: (4) Spiffeh, Solstice, Dunnstral, Toogelo

Bell

(6): Ircher, pichu, Ydrasse, mastina, Polar Bear Express, Dr Easy Bake

Spiffeh

(1): Creature

Pichu

(1): Bell

Not Voting

(1): Double the Trouble
With 14 alive, it takes 8 to execute.

MURDERCAT is VLA until 12/17. MURDERCAT did not specify a time, so I'll use noon PST.
Ydrasse is VLA until 12/16 at noon PST.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-12-22 18:21:00)

[/color]

[MURDERCAT]

That's not productive at all.

Uh we would have a detective result and a possible guilty lol, how is that not productive?

[Ircher]

I was talking game state wise. Most likely, both are inno results anyone which don't help much.

[Blade Dancer]

I guess Pooky has a point about Bell being outside of their scum range, now i don't really townread Bell for it. But i do agree with Murdercat that it could be wise to wait a day or two. Either the Detective claims die or we can resolve them later.

VOTE: Polar Bear Express

- Norwee

I will not count any votes that are out of hydra.

[MURDERCAT]

It's also a high risk play to CC a real detective with a scum player who isn't contributing much to get a free elim and free up a night kill to be used on someone else.
If we elim Bell here and he is town we go to 9:4. Vig probably kills DEB (unless there is scum doc or DEB is somehow town in that case), we go into tomorrow at 8:3 without the result. Is that really so much better than the other worst case?

[Double the Trouble]

Yeah my bad.

VOTE: Polar Bear Express

- Norwee

[MURDERCAT]

Another way to think of it, if DEB is scum, what would FL try to get out of it. Would he trade DEB who hasn't done a lot for a D2 miselim on a town PR to basically control the game for today and possibly tomorrow?
I think this is possible enough that an elim on Bell isn't optimal.
I also don't like that DEB completely dipped from the thread.

[MURDERCAT]

If we use basic rules of thumb like "elim someone if they get CC'd" we are doing exactly what FL expects us to do and we will probably just lose.

[Noraa]

Noraa, when you're town. Can you even focus when people are calling you scum all the time.

This hit deep in my frozen heart.
pain.
I dont know what to think anymore.
Pichu assure me that ur right and I will follow u forever and ever.

-nornor

[pichu]

i am right and you'll feel much better when you see Bell flip red
the reason he's contradicting himself and slipping now is because he's playing like he has nothing to lose
(because he doesn't!!!)

@Solstice: you really need to start using that razor occam gave you
if it looks like scum thinks like scum and acts like scum - it's just scum and not town making REALLY weird plays

[pichu]

hey Bell
how do you read Creature and would you vote for him

[pichu]

Can you link some Bell scumgames for me?

i played with bell in antechamber and epilogue and both times he was very uncomfortable and low effort as scum.

So you think this is scum indicative for him? Yeah, I think that kind of fits with what we’re seeing here.

[That doesn't fit with what we're seeing here, what??]

[Eh. Awkward yeah, low effort no. He's going through the motions of bringing up how BM/NK15 interactions are really important to his solve and has also vowed to high effort for the next 6 days. I don't really know what the point for him to do that as scum is since he's very clearly dead here.]

[although he hasn't delivered on much of the solve -- that's why I keep harping on him for reads. At first I was more understanding cause I hate giving reads on players I haven't evaluated.]

[...but i can do it. very easily as town. Cause i know i can change em later and it's whatever. I take way more time as scum cause my thought process just isn't as deeply ingrained into my mind, im too busy worrying about other stuff, i care about how it comes off etc etc etc. Bell repeatedly refusing to give us his toilet paper reads becomes less and less believable every time he says it]

[I have never seen town fake-react to a fake hammer, just seen scum fake-react a small handful of times. So is this a first for me, orrr]

why should town be fake-reacting to a fake hammer in the first place?

[I have no clue. Technically you could justify it because it in theory gives you greater chances of living if it's bought, and living is good for townies too. In practice, that's a terrible idea because you're lying and generally people are trying to find liars, so when you do a fake reaction to a hammer, it tends to make you look worse.]

[Bell then shortly after clarifying he wouldn't fake react to a hammer he knows is fake, despite that being what he literally just did, is just.. alright then...]

[I can technically see a townie justifying a desperate play like that in their mind, sure. Subsequently admitting they would never do that like they're going through some kind of cognitive dissonance.... okay. there's a certain point where town!Bell can't really blame us.]

[Idk. Overall this is a lot different from what I expected from scum!Bell. But that can maybe be explained by him trying something new, something flaily and all over the place with a bunch of emotions. something that is sure to get me at least]

[I am pretty much basing my read (at this point) off of Bell's behaviour knowing he's going to die -- since there is no scum motivation to solve when he knows it doesn't save his life -- and what does he do? he doesn't even give readsssss. Oh Bell... why must you do this?]

~Morning

does this mean you still read Bell as town despite everything
the thing you're basing your read on is on a false premise
Pooky himself has said he thinks Bell is town and there's a perfectly viable counterwagon in Creature
Bell does not KNOW he's going to die - many have advocated he live for at least a day
he's fighting because he thinks he has a chance
Bell contradicting himself in the same post is not town!Bell going through some really unlikely and weird cognitive dissonance - it hard to do that when it's honest thoughts
the far more likely explanation is that scum!Bell is slipping up while faking those thoughts

[Solstice]

@Solstice: you really need to start using that razor occam gave you
if it looks like scum thinks like scum and acts like scum - it's just scum and not town making REALLY weird plays

[Yea i'm fine with that]

[Bell I feel like if you were town, you wouldn't be holding your solve so close to the chest. if you were town, it'd be pretty easy to give us something, anything you have an opinion on]

[Pedit: I'm not townreading Bell no. I am wary of the Detective v. Detective thing, and the emotion and etcetera is a new look for scum!Bell that i've seen. But i wouldn't say he's townie outside of being out of his scum meta]

[I wanted him to keep spewing information before he dies, which would be useful to him if he's town and useful to us no matter what his alignment is -- although I'm not sure he's going to deliver on that solve]

~Morning

[pichu]

alright alright
i just worry you know
it would break my heart if he got away today after everything

[Solstice]

Noraa, when you're town. Can you even focus when people are calling you scum all the time.

This hit deep in my frozen heart.
pain.
I dont know what to think anymore.
Pichu assure me that ur right and I will follow u forever and ever.

-nornor

[Hasn't he already done that, possibly multiple times?]

[Oh btw to comment on the claims for the millionth time, I don't really see what the point is for DrEasy!scum to CC town!Bell is? Correct me if i'm wrong, but was that really necessary? There's also the unlikeliness that DrEasy was crumbing the exact same role town!Bell happened to have -- although you could say that DrEasy's crumb could apply to a few other investigative roles actually. Hmm]

~Morning

[Ircher]

Town!Bell and scum!DEB is by far the least likely scenario.

[Solstice]

Another way to think of it, if DEB is scum, what would FL try to get out of it. Would he trade DEB who hasn't done a lot for a D2 miselim on a town PR to basically control the game for today and possibly tomorrow?
I think this is possible enough that an elim on Bell isn't optimal.
I also don't like that DEB completely dipped from the thread.

[Yeah, so my thinking is that this isn't really possible enough to justify sparing Bell]

[In my mind, Dr Easy is likely town and the situation where Bell is town is if it's TvT with a sabotaged setup. and SvS is probably still more likely than Bell!town Dr!scum so Bell remains a fine pick anyway]

[i am conceding that the sabotaged setup requires that specific choice from FL to happen, combined with Bell's really strange behaviour as a town to also happen. So it's not as likely as i thought]

~Morning

[Ircher]

I also don't like that DEB completely dipped from the thread.

Also, this isn't true. DEB's last post is only 13 hours ago. You can't expect people to be posting constantly throughout each IRL day.

[Polar Bear Express]

im glad gloria was fine with the vote hehe my polar bear gifs got to her

Gloria agrees with Pichu.
Noraa trusts in Pichu.

Our vote is yours Pichu <3
Pichu can officially be given the modifier "doublevoting"

-nornnor

[pichu]

your vote will be put to excellent use!

[MURDERCAT]

I also don't like that DEB completely dipped from the thread.

Also, this isn't true. DEB's last post is only 13 hours ago. You can't expect people to be posting constantly throughout each IRL day.

You are giving DEB a lot of credit for his nothing post while criticizing me about fluff the whole game. He hasn't posted meaningfully since claiming.