Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!
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- fferyllt
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fferyllt SheTitan of Trajectory
- fferyllt
She- Titan of Trajectory
- Titan of Trajectory
- Posts: 19412
- Joined: December 28, 2012
- Pronoun: She
- Location: Left Coast
- Happy Scumday!
Amid the pressure of great events, a general principle gives no help.
On the path to becoming yourself, you'll need to choose alignment over validation from others, peace over addictive chaos, and being misunderstood over false acceptance. --TheHolisticPsychologistIdic- fferyllt
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fferyllt SheTitan of Trajectory
- fferyllt
She- Titan of Trajectory
- Titan of Trajectory
- Posts: 19412
- Joined: December 28, 2012
- Pronoun: She
- Location: Left Coast
- Happy Scumday!
Prods will be paused today and tomorrow for the Christmas holiday. On the morning of the 26th, any needed prods will issued. The 26th is the day before the current deadline. I'll consider adding one more day to the deadline if prods need to be sent, OR if a majority of players wish for the deadline to be extended. Let me know by PM if you would like the extension.
HappyHolidays!Amid the pressure of great events, a general principle gives no help.
On the path to becoming yourself, you'll need to choose alignment over validation from others, peace over addictive chaos, and being misunderstood over false acceptance. --TheHolisticPsychologistIdic- fferyllt
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fferyllt SheTitan of Trajectory
- fferyllt
She- Titan of Trajectory
- Titan of Trajectory
- Posts: 19412
- Joined: December 28, 2012
- Pronoun: She
- Location: Left Coast
- Happy Scumday!
Norfolk boy1 replaces Mr Turtle. Please welcome him!Amid the pressure of great events, a general principle gives no help.
On the path to becoming yourself, you'll need to choose alignment over validation from others, peace over addictive chaos, and being misunderstood over false acceptance. --TheHolisticPsychologistIdic- Lunar Martian
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Lunar Martian Mafia Scum
- Lunar Martian
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1409
- Joined: December 3, 2020
Well you thought I was Mafia the whole time and seemingly for no reason, but then you also unvoted me.
I don't trust molla and I don't think that a vague claim should be enough to protect the most suspicious player in the game.
BTW, I'm here and getting up to speed. Feel free to ask any questions or prod me on things I missed.- Lunar Martian
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Lunar Martian Mafia Scum
- Lunar Martian
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1409
- Joined: December 3, 2020
I'm actually kind of concerned about how everyone seems OK with killing me not because of what I've done, but simply because I haven't done much. I'm sorry that this game started when it did. I was quite busy and then out of town. The timing is unfortunate, but it feels like people are being opportunistic in being willing to kill me when I said I was unable to post much.In post 595, quiet wrote:If I were turtle or lunar, I think I’d be pretty intimidated by the prospect of jumping in now. I mean lunar has a pretty rough job now, after promising that today they’d come back and start posting more, to step in and...well, basically defend against what is looking like a pretty likely vote.
I don’t know if there’s really anything that could make it easier; I guess I just want to say that Lunar (and turtle), I’m excited to hear pretty much anything from you both, and if anyone in the thread has some ideas of where they could start to make it a little less overwhelming, it would be nice to post that. I don’t have any good specific questions for them.- Lunar Martian
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Lunar Martian Mafia Scum
- Lunar Martian
- Mafia Scum
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- Joined: December 3, 2020
I want to clarify this post because Illwei attacked me here:In post 575, Lunar Martian wrote:
I really dislike this logic. Neither one requires a complex chain of reasoning. Obviously the Town scenario is more likely since most people are Town, but its not like the scenario where Illwei is Mafia requires a lot of assumptions or anything.In post 563, Illwei wrote:
If you follow occam's razor, the scum thing makes no sense.In post 559, unwnd wrote:I think occam's razor suggests that Illwei, as scum, did not premeditate their post about the setup and instead said something that would look townie. In the instance of them actually being town? Then that nature would actually be true and thus the explanation would still apply.
two options:
1) I am scum. I felt scared and so made a post purposefully miscounting the W:V ratio to appear like I am a villager who miscounted.
2) I am a villager who miscounted.
Which is the simplest, I ask?
I wasn't parroting unwnd. I'm really not reading into the 6:3 thing because while I think it's unlikely that someone wouldn't know how many Town/Mafia there are, I think its equally unlikely that Mafia would try to pretend to not know to look like Town. For that to work Mafia would have to lie about not knowing something plausible. All I was saying was that the Occam's Razor argument doesn't really apply. I'm mildly suspicious of Illwei for the way they reacted to pressure, but overall I still think that Illwei is Town for earlier posts and because I mostly agree with Illwei about who is Mafia. Mostly.In post 583, Illwei wrote:I feel more confident in my Lunar vote now that he's parroting unwnd about me.- Lunar Martian
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Lunar Martian Mafia Scum
- Lunar Martian
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I'm still most suspicious of BBmolla and don't know why a vague claim meant that everyone backed off.
The other two people I'm most suspicious of right now are safebet and quiet. They are both being very opportunistic in being willing to kill me today, but neither seems to have a good reason for doing so.- Lunar Martian
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Lunar Martian Mafia Scum
- Lunar Martian
- Mafia Scum
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- Mikul
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Mikul Goon
- Mikul
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- Posts: 970
- Joined: May 24, 2020
- Location: Eorzea
@lunar if possible (especially if deadline extension happens) I think it would be useful for you to dig a bit. Will help people get off the wagon. I think people jumping on you so easily also bothered me. The vagueness of your reads aren't going to help people town read you harder. If you would not mind. Can be after Christmas. I also will be not be able to contribute hardly anything useful until Saturday at minimum." I don’t believe in the gods’ existence. Man is the master of his own fate, not the gods. The gods are man’s creation to give answers that they are too afraid to give themselves."
- Ragnar Lothbrok- BBmolla
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BBmolla Open Book
- BBmolla
- Open Book
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omgusIn post 603, Lunar Martian wrote:Well you thought I was Mafia the whole time and seemingly for no reason, but then you also unvoted me.
I don't trust molla and I don't think that a vague claim should be enough to protect the most suspicious player in the game.
BTW, I'm here and getting up to speed. Feel free to ask any questions or prod me on things I missed.- Norfolk Boy1
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Norfolk Boy1 Goon
- Norfolk Boy1
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- Posts: 295
- Joined: August 31, 2020
- Location: Norfolk, but not that one.
I've re-read the entire game and to be honest, nobody is radiating town. I think that is because there is a lot of content and i'll need to do supplementary ISO reads.
For now, i'm leaning town on BBmolla and Illwei. This is purely because I don't believe scum draw this much attention to themselves on day 1.
I wasn't liking Lunar at all during my read, but the wagon on them doesn't sit right to me. I'm not sure this is the way to go right now.
Safebet and Petapan are just null for me. No leanings either way at present.
Unwnd is a townlean for me, but that's based off of an early interaction he had with (I think) Quiet. I will confirm this with my re-read.
Quiet is eliminateable for me. There's obvious nervousness followed by attempts to be more assertive in their posts. This pings me as scum being coached.
I don't understand why Mikul is being townread by most people. I'd also be on board with a Mikul elimination.
I will support these comments with some substance, but that will be later. I have little ones to get ready for Santa coming.- petapan
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petapan Don Corelone
- petapan
- BBmolla
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BBmolla Open Book
- BBmolla
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- Open Book
- Posts: 23833
- Joined: May 29, 2011
- BBmolla
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BBmolla Open Book
- BBmolla
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- Open Book
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- Joined: May 29, 2011
- quiet
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quiet Goon
- quiet
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- Joined: December 12, 2020
- quiet
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quiet Goon
- quiet
- Goon
- Goon
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- Lunar Martian
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Lunar Martian Mafia Scum
- Lunar Martian
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It seems like all of Norfolk's thoughts are very much within consensus except Mikul, which almost seems to have been thrown on as an afterthought. At this point I'm willing to vote Norfolk but the way the wagon materialized within 15 minutes including 2 people I think are most likely Mafia makes me hesitate. I'll wait for Norfolk to post more in-depth analysis.- petapan
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petapan Don Corelone
- petapan
- Don Corelone
- Don Corelone
- Posts: 10371
- Joined: May 8, 2012
they don't look consensus-y to me, i just don't believe those are real thoughts. the reason for his quiet scumread is bad. vague explanation of "nervousness", claiming attempting to be assertive is somehow scummy, that his play is somehow indicative of being coached (he definitely doesn't act the way he is if being coached by any of the SEs, lol)free crypto- Illwei
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Illwei Goon
- Illwei
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- Posts: 136
- Joined: December 10, 2020
Okay wow. I'm actually an idiot here. I've been refreshing page 23 for like the past two days, wondering why people haven't been posting -_-In post 605, Lunar Martian wrote:
I want to clarify this post because Illwei attacked me here:In post 575, Lunar Martian wrote:
I really dislike this logic. Neither one requires a complex chain of reasoning. Obviously the Town scenario is more likely since most people are Town, but its not like the scenario where Illwei is Mafia requires a lot of assumptions or anything.In post 563, Illwei wrote:
If you follow occam's razor, the scum thing makes no sense.In post 559, unwnd wrote:I think occam's razor suggests that Illwei, as scum, did not premeditate their post about the setup and instead said something that would look townie. In the instance of them actually being town? Then that nature would actually be true and thus the explanation would still apply.
two options:
1) I am scum. I felt scared and so made a post purposefully miscounting the W:V ratio to appear like I am a villager who miscounted.
2) I am a villager who miscounted.
Which is the simplest, I ask?
I wasn't parroting unwnd. I'm really not reading into the 6:3 thing because while I think it's unlikely that someone wouldn't know how many Town/Mafia there are, I think its equally unlikely that Mafia would try to pretend to not know to look like Town. For that to work Mafia would have to lie about not knowing something plausible. All I was saying was that the Occam's Razor argument doesn't really apply. I'm mildly suspicious of Illwei for the way they reacted to pressure, but overall I still think that Illwei is Town for earlier posts and because I mostly agree with Illwei about who is Mafia. Mostly.In post 583, Illwei wrote:I feel more confident in my Lunar vote now that he's parroting unwnd about me.
Okay well @Lunar If you're town, and you think unwnd is one of the least suspicious, then who is my scumread that you agree with?
Those votes really piled on Norfolk with 0 explaination except for peta. quiet/peta is feeling w/w to me right now. (not as in I think either of them are necessarily Scum yet)- petapan
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petapan Don Corelone
- petapan
- Illwei
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Illwei Goon
- Illwei
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- Joined: December 10, 2020
- petapan
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petapan Don Corelone
- petapan
- Don Corelone
- Don Corelone
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- Joined: May 8, 2012
not about the quote, about this:
because that's such a baffling takeIn post 618, Illwei wrote:quiet/peta is feeling w/w to me right now. (not as in I think either of them are necessarily Scum yet)free crypto- Illwei
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Illwei Goon
- Illwei
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- Joined: December 10, 2020
It was that you and quiet posted votes on turtle and only you gave explaination. looking back over that I see that quiet had his vote on Turtle before so just ignore me ig.
At the time, reading over it, it felt like you and quiet kinda agreed on the explaination that you posted, because three votes is a lot in a little time for quiet to still be fine with his (pressure?) vote on there. but Quiet also never said anything in thread, so-
I- nvm on that one.- unwnd
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unwnd Moment of Brilliance
- unwnd
- Moment of Brilliance
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- fferyllt
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fferyllt SheTitan of Trajectory
- fferyllt
She- Titan of Trajectory
- Titan of Trajectory
- Posts: 19412
- Joined: December 28, 2012
- Pronoun: She
- Location: Left Coast
- Happy Scumday!
allesAmid the pressure of great events, a general principle gives no help.
On the path to becoming yourself, you'll need to choose alignment over validation from others, peace over addictive chaos, and being misunderstood over false acceptance. --TheHolisticPsychologistIdic - fferyllt
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- unwnd
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