One Night Stand [Game Over]

[Alisae]

honestly hopkirk how can you do this to me
i thought we were friends

[Hopkirk]

think about it

[Alisae]

i thought we were friends bro

[Hopkirk]

i wanted to be protected because then i get to vend TWO fruits instead of one. i probably should have added the condition-double-fruit vendor part to my claim tbh, i'll understand if missing that bit out gets me voted off

[Hopkirk]

i thought we were friends bro

we are. sometime i just like softclaiming in big-brain ways

[Hopkirk]

do we think scum can even kill in this setup?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I want to vote NsG but I’m not ready for today to be over and Mena isn’t back yet and I have not gotten the chance to play with NsG yet.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

do we think scum can even kill in this setup?

Pretty sure they can

[Alisae]

if they didn't then i would be confused on how this got past review

[Hopkirk]

what would be the issue with it?

3 scum in 12 players is 50% winrate for each side mountainous right? then we had a pair of town lovers which is -ev and the hood points to low town power. based on what it seems we've got 3 scum with a kill every night sounds scumsided without hectic-style-mechanics. i can see killpower being limited

[Hopkirk]

3-9 with a pair of town lovers who don't know if the other one is town and a kill every night is very heavily scumsided

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Isn’t 4-8 nightless balanced? I thought with 3 scum there should be a night kill.

[Alisae]

the issue with that is it doesn't sound like its fun to play but 4-8 nightless is the more balanced version of it me thinks

[Alisae]

if there's 3 there should probably be a night kill

[Hopkirk]

Letting P(Town win) = 1/2, this means:

1/2 = (N-2S)/N
N/2 = N-2S
N = 2N-4S
4S = N

Nightless games have a 50% win rate for either faction if scum make up a quarter of the initial population.

3-9 nightless is balanced

[Alisae]

oh is it?

[clidd]

lets see if ur individually right then I can cover for your weaknesses.
It honestly could just be a team of {Uncrowned, FL, Mena} that makes sense and lines up with what I'm thinking

Thanks.

[Alisae]

if that actually is the case I honestly just feel bad for whoever randed scum in this game
they're probably not having a good time cuz they randed scum in a nightless game that wasn't advertised as nightless

[Hopkirk]

Nightless ev is P(Town win) = 1 - 2S/N = (N-2S)/N for mountainous
so 4/8 = 1 - 8/12 = 33% town win

[Hopkirk]

imo chance the setup is just nightless is higher than the alternatives of 1- a 2p scumteam (which is higher scum EV that nightless if we're talking 10-2) or 2- that we got the specific heal/other standard explanation for a kill not happening or 3 - ? person scumteam with a hectic gimmick

9-3 with 2 town lovers and a 5p hood just feels incredibly scumsided. like that's 84% scum win before poweroles... but that's taking the 11p and mafia have the boost of either a second kill with the lovers, or always being at even numbers in day (both of which reduce town EV). like with what we've seen so far 3 scum/nightly kill/lovers/other prs being what they look like then we'd be approaching 90% scum win by EVs (which we all know are probably a

low

estimate based on RC/Mathdino's charisma ev stuff) and i think hectic prefers to balance setups slightly towards town and i know for sure he knows about the EV project stuff, so i don't see this being 9-3 with a nightly kill.

scum could also be an alien faction with 1 kill or s/thing. i could see aliens fitting in with a 'love' flavoured setup. there could be a whole twist about ydrasse's letters that way

[Alisae]

if mena is scum the game probably isn't nightless

[Hopkirk]

this game can't be 9-3 with a nightly kill. that isn't even close to balanced.

[Hopkirk]

factoring in the 8 revealed roles and assuming 1-2 scum outside of those*

[Alisae]

Well if ur right I'm going to flame Ydrasse and Hectic

[Hopkirk]

you're going to complain to hectic about an unusual setup?