Open 804: Popcorn Mafia Redux [Game Over!]

[SirCakez]

Duchess has completely flaked since Lotus flipped
/thonk

[RLotus]

Don't you think he would just attack the TvT dichotomy if he is scum?

I don't get what you mean here.
I think he's setting up SvT dichotomies between Norfolk/Cakes/me, not TvT dichotomies.

I thought your presumption was Cakez was town, and him and you have a dichotomy. But I don't see any indication that Norfolk is interested in shooting you or Cakez.

[SirCakez]

This might be the first time ever I agree with Not Mafia. Wow.

which should be a hint that you're messing up somewhere

Why?

the joke


your head

[WhemeStar]

PETA solidified my townlean on rock

Shoot duchess

you don't think i'm onto anything wrt STT?
because i wanna shoot that hydra real bad.

I don’t really care currently I would rather see duchess shot right now.

[Imperium]

Norfolk? NORFOLK? NOOORFOOOLK!!!!

[Imperium]

Duchess has completely flaked since Lotus flipped
/thonk

this is a thought that i also had.

[Imperium]

Don't you think he would just attack the TvT dichotomy if he is scum?

I don't get what you mean here.
I think he's setting up SvT dichotomies between Norfolk/Cakes/me, not TvT dichotomies.

I thought your presumption was Cakez was town, and him and you have a dichotomy. But I don't see any indication that Norfolk is interested in shooting you or Cakez.

Gotcha.

My concern is less that STT is pushing mislynches because STT doesn't have enough of a presence at present to do anything but try not to get shot. My concern is that STT is making up reads because his reads on me/Cakez/Norfolk look more like a computer program than someone genuinely trying to figure out the game. I believe this because of him being willing to turn on his top townread as easily as he is (everyone can be wrong so seeing someone be wrong once should kick your top townread to your bottom 4) and because of how clean those reads are.

If Norfolk is town, STT believes that I am town and Cakez is scum.
If Norfolk is scum, STT believes that I am scum and Cakez is town.
If Cakez is town, STT believes that I am scum.

I don't believe that he believes that because what people believe in a mafia game usually isn't so straight forward; there's usually a bit of nuance, it's usually a bit messy. This just... isn't.

[RLotus]

I see what you're saying.

[Imperium]

also peta this is my rough rack and stack currently i think:\

MUSHSHAGANA

SirCakez

WhemeStar
Dunnstral
petapan Rockhopper

Norfolk Boy1
Duchess

Not_Mafia

ScrewTheTells
unwnd Albert B. Rampage

[Imperium]

The way he is looking at norfolk being above baseline for scum resonates with me

I don't understand at all why this makes STT more town for you. It's a very reasonable take but reasonable =/= town or even townie.

[Imperium]

I just want to stop being misrepped to hell and back.

It is impossible to be understood when someone refuses to interact with you in good faith, Yes it is.

From my experienxe people who misrep are scum. I think cakez is scum

It's certainly possible but I think it's more likely that he's just irrationally stuck on us as scum. Unfortunately he's done the moving the goalpost stuff to me when he was town before.

[Imperium]

I wouldn't mind Imperium having the gun, yeah. The concern with my other nulltowns is that I think they'd be some degree of hot garbage with the gun, but Imperium I feel would be pretty excellent with it. Probably the three players I trust to do /literally anything/ useful with the gun as of right now are Imperium, unwnd and Duchess, so if that's a strong part of your consideration, that's where I'd place bullets. I strongly think unwnd is town though, so maybe not there so much.

Could you get into why you think that unwnd is town?
I'm having major doubts at the moment.

[Imperium]

I actually brought this up just a bit ago too. Scum aren't going to want to get into conflicts in this setup

This is a big piece of my current unwnd suspicion.
Unwnd's playing firefighter currently. And they're talking a bit about who they want shot and they're doing a little defending to prevent their townreads from being shot, but it's almost intentionally inoffensive. I don't think unwnd!town cares as much as me-Cakez as they did here and - even if I am wrong - I think there's more aggression/scumhunting between firefights.

[Imperium]

What did I do to get ire?

I'm not plunging the town into chaos, norfolk really needs to die here, pretty much everyone is scumreadng them or nullreading them, they might even be the godfather at this point but it's still worth shooting there honestly

I like Dunn's righteous indignation tone. Don't know if that's a good marker for him but I find it comes from town more often than not.

[petapan]

PETA solidified my townlean on rock

Shoot duchess

how did you have a townread on rockhopper? i'm honestly concerned by anyone claiming to have any kind of a read on what little he posted

[Duchess]

Apologies, I meant to be here yesterday as it was my day off, but I had something come up. I've mostly read everything to this point, and I'll share some thoughts I've had once I am home. Mush if you're around later I would love to talk about Cakez and Imperium.

[Imperium]

you can talk about imperium with imperium.

what's up?

[WhemeStar]

VOTE: ScrewTheTells
VOTE: Norfolk boy
VOTE: Not_Mafia
VOTE: SirCakez

Probably two scum in there

Looking back on this, does scum make this post?

[unwnd]

My concern is less that STT is pushing mislynches because STT doesn't have enough of a presence at present to do anything but try not to get shot. My concern is that STT is making up reads because his reads on me/Cakez/Norfolk look more like a computer program than someone genuinely trying to figure out the game. I believe this because of him being willing to turn on his top townread as easily as he is (everyone can be wrong so seeing someone be wrong once should kick your top townread to your bottom 4) and because of how clean those reads are.

I'm not sure why his Cakez/Norfolk reads are the ones you focus in on instead of his MUSH read, which is far more elaborated

I'd even go so far to say I agree with some of it (in a vacuum)

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I’ll be here, Duchess, but wallposts will not be happening to my usual degree. Give me another few hours to get my immediate needs dealt with.

Anyone else, if you want me I cannot promise I saw your posts. There’s the Duchess request, Imperium wanted something, I noted a petapan question, haven’t seen anything else. If I missed someone, give me a prompt, I’m making note of everything I see.

[Imperium]

STT's MUSHSHAGANA Meta Wall Sucks:

some thoughts from the Nacho of Nacho and Tammy

So I think MUSH's scum meta would be highly valuable information in this situation. Like I said before, I place a lot of weight on scumhunting effort, and MUSH's consistent writing of walls is making me feel that she's town. But I can't actually find myself agreeing with the substance of most of those walls, and that's why I also had a contrasting feeling that she's scum. E.g. the psychoanalysis of Cakez. I think MUSH is reasoning is overly specific, and relies way too heavily on arbitrary extrapolations, which seems like scum coming up with ad-hoc rationalizations, and wrapping them up in many words to fit MUSH's wall-posting meta. I just can't see how you can actually scum hunt by over-analyzing extrapolated scenarios that are mostly just biased opinions dressed up and presented as ironclad logic. I think unwnd and Cakez also pointed out this as basically "over-thinking".

So the general argument here is that STT thinks that effort = town (which is wrong and I hate it, but that's a personal problem), but Mush's arguments rely on baseless assumptions and that makes her scum. What there's not any of at all is specifics or examples - STT refers to the psychoanalysis of Cakez (here, probably) in a vague sort of way but that's it. Where is Mush making assumptions she shouldn't be making? Can you remember a single baseless assumption that Mush made in order to push a read? I can't.

MUSH's defense is that she always overthinks, which is fine for a personal playstyle, and no I'm not expecting this to change, that's not the point. The point is that this doesn't convince me that she's not scum. Because scum would do the same thing and take advantage of this meta to push however they want. When someone points out that they're just over-rationalizing a dubious point, they'd just say "but it's totally in line with my meta!"

This is moving the goalposts a bit in my opinion.
STT's attack, which I don't think anyone else has talked about, is that Mush uses "arbitrary extrapolations" to push reads.
What Mush was defending against wrt Cakez and unwnd was the overthinking piece.
Here, STT says that Mush's defense that overthinking is her playstyle isn't an adequate defense to STT's attack and of course it's not - that's not what Mush was defending against in the first place.

I might be paranoid but when MUSH's first post in the game is a pre-emptive "my playstyle might be off because of my special IRL circumstances", that rings alarms in my head. I'm not trying to make light of your IRL stuff, I'm not here to talk about that. I just think if you were scum, your brain would be more likely to recognize excuses you can use to defend any inconsistencies from meta. Sure, town-MUSH might well also say this, but I think there's a relatively larger chance that town-MUSH wouldn't think that the IRL circumstances would impact her wall-making enough, to the point where it has to be pre-emptively mentioned. Like, scum-MUSH would almost certainly see that this is a thing they should say because they know faking zealous walls as scum is hard. Scum-MUSH probably want to cover any inconsistencies because any deviations from her meta would be noticeable. Whereas town-MUSH might say it, or they might miss that train of thought and not say it. Therefore it is bayesian evidence to me, basically, slightly shifting MUSH towards scum in probability. And then all the bad arguments in the walls just made this more likely.

This is the dirtiest push in the game thus far and I can't help but think that STT wouldn't make it unless he was digging for shit to throw at the wall. Mush said "I am dealing with homelessness, so I might be less active in this game" and STT is trying to say that Mush is scum using that as an excuse to lurk even though Mush CLEARLY isn't lurking? No. That is slimy, slimy bullshit.

I was hoping that I'd be able to see at least one MUSH game where she's scum. If MUSH still writes walls as scum, I'd be pretty confident in my scum read, since that would prove that the playstyle was a totally null indicator.

If there were a MUSH scum game where this wall meta was broken, then I'd heavily update that MUSH is town.

I checked the games, and it turns out we have the worst case of not having this evidence one way or another. MUSH doesn't have scum games here yet.

So the only thing that updates my read on MUSH is the continued demonstration of wall-writing ability. It's pretty consistent. Without any actual evidence, my expectation is that it shouldn't be that easy for scum-MUSH to fake. Hypothetically, if I start to find MUSH actually making arguments I agree with, I think that would be an indicator that MUSH is actually town.

So after considering that, I think it makes MUSH scummy but not enough to be the best shot for today. I think MUSH will only be easier to read as the game goes on so there's no need to rush this one while there's still a lot of uncertainty.

And this is just a mess of an argument. He's arguing that if Mush can write walls as scum then she's scum here since the wall writing is the only reason he thinks she's town. But if she continues to post a bunch of walls then she's town.

---- I just saw MUSH's latest post in the preview. The above was written before that. ---

Well so much for that. MUSH is just reads like OMGUSing now. I'm not leaving any escape hatches. Why would I need escape hatches? What I am doing is not being tunnel-visioned. I'm just stating how I'm seeing the evidence for and against you, so everyone is on the same page as me, and now you're OMGUSing me for not giving you a town pass like other people and making up more psycho-analysis bullshit to rationalize it as usual.

MUSH is likely scum.

And this is kinda funny bc he's accusing Mush of OMGUSing when he, in fact, is the person who is OMGUSing. The only reason he goes from 0 to 100 on Mush is because she suspected him.

[Imperium]

My concern is less that STT is pushing mislynches because STT doesn't have enough of a presence at present to do anything but try not to get shot. My concern is that STT is making up reads because his reads on me/Cakez/Norfolk look more like a computer program than someone genuinely trying to figure out the game. I believe this because of him being willing to turn on his top townread as easily as he is (everyone can be wrong so seeing someone be wrong once should kick your top townread to your bottom 4) and because of how clean those reads are.

I'm not sure why his Cakez/Norfolk reads are the ones you focus in on instead of his MUSH read, which is far more elaborated

I'd even go so far to say I agree with some of it (in a vacuum)

The reasons why his MUSH read bothers me are far more nuanced and I didn't have time to get into them.

[unwnd]

I don't disagree with you that STT's argument about IRL circumstances or MUSH explaining that her time may be limited is any indication of scum. That''s quite underhanded from STT and I'd like him to reconsider at least that aspect of their read. The instances about MUSH's extrapolated reads however rung a bit of truth, and I do see why STT would make those conclusions. I'll give you one thing I don't like about that wall now that I've actually read it and it's that STT seems to be mostly convincing himself in real-time. The wall goes through 'the effort is townie' to 'but the meta is scummy' to 'that reasoning about IRL circumstances justifies the inconsistencies' around to 'OK, OMGUS.'

The problem relies on the fact whether you believe STT thinks it's worthwhile to push someone like MUSH because let me be honest, there's a reason (no offense MUSH) most people do not respond to her walls. Why not pick an easier target instead of engaging yourself with a possible conundrum. This is not the basis of liking STT, rather there's just a lot of headway given.

[Imperium]

The problem relies on the fact whether you believe STT thinks it's worthwhile to push someone like MUSH because let me be honest, there's a reason (no offense MUSH) most people do not respond to her walls. Why not pick an easier target instead of engaging yourself with a possible conundrum. This is not the basis of liking STT, rather there's just a lot of headway given.

STT wasn't going to push Mush until they realized how hard she was pushing them.

The conclusion of that wall was originally "scummy, but i'm not going to push it yet", which isn't a read I think that any scum would be afraid of putting out into the world. The only reason the conclusion changed to scum is the Mush pedit post pushing the fuck out of him.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I don't disagree with you that STT's argument about IRL circumstances or MUSH explaining that her time may be limited is any indication of scum. That''s quite underhanded from STT and I'd like him to reconsider at least that aspect of their read. The instances about MUSH's extrapolated reads however rung a bit of truth, and I do see why STT would make those conclusions. I'll give you one thing I don't like about that wall now that I've actually read it and it's that STT seems to be mostly convincing himself in real-time. The wall goes through 'the effort is townie' to 'but the meta is scummy' to 'that reasoning about IRL circumstances justifies the inconsistencies' around to 'OK, OMGUS.'

The problem relies on the fact whether you believe STT thinks it's worthwhile to push someone like MUSH because let me be honest, there's a reason (no offense MUSH) most people do not respond to her walls. Why not pick an easier target instead of engaging yourself with a possible conundrum. This is not the basis of liking STT, rather there's just a lot of headway given.

Just caught this in time, but please actually check Zdenek in Death Curse because that's literally the exact thing that happened there, and also in one of the newbie games (2028? last one I played) word321 tried it and I caught scum there too (shame his replacement fooled me)

People see "weird player" and think "aha, I can get a push on this" and it's never going to work with me, but it doesn't stop them from trying

Phones about to die back soon