Open 804: Popcorn Mafia Redux [Game Over!]

[petapan]

havent seen nacho or tammy as scum in 7+ years and the only time i saw cakez as scum he got caught out day 1 so i have nothing to tell you there

[Imperium]

Oh, sorry!

//

Are you implying that in #2 that you might be lying about your shoot pool?

I'm not exactly sure who all that would change in my reads. I guess I would have fewer reasons to think Imperium is scum, but I still think Imperium would be scum?

Cakez read is independent, Dunn read is off play, Not_Mafia is mostly just gut, unwnd is a toneread that I could be wrong on but is also independent, peta and STT are poe, so in a world where you're just actively lying about your shoot pool as like a reaction test, Imperium would be slightly less scummy but I'd probably still think I was right for the wrong reasons. So actually not that much would change? Like I guess I still would think Imperium was trying to snow you, what would change would be whether it was working or not. My view of the gamestate would be wrong but I think the way Imperium is positioning unwnd would still be true so the overall read probably holds, although slightly less confident

idk I guess I've played with a lot of trolly ICs and I already thought you were mostly just wrong so it doesn't mess with too much

Why would finding out that she’s laying a clever trap change your reasoning or reads at all?

I don’t understand why it would give you fewer reasons to find us scum?

If she’s transparent the only thing her reads are are known to be coming from town, while as a clever trap are just reads she’s stated. Don’t really get your reasoning there.

[Happy Unbirthday Boon]

It's something like:
-Musha looks snowed (given shoot pool)
-The player most capable of snowing her is Imperium
-Therefore Imperium is probably scum

vs.
-Imperium is probably trying to snow Musha
-Imperium is probably scum

Without the first point, scenario 2 is a bit weaker. The overall reasoning is still there, just one fewer point in its favor

[petapan]

MUSHSHAGANA

Not_Mafia
unwnd
WhemeStar

petapan/Rockhopper
Dunnstral

ScrewTheTells
Imperium
SirCakez

Quick skim of isos gets me about here

lmao

[Happy Unbirthday Boon]

I feel like that response confirms I'm right on at least 3 reads

[petapan]

being right on 3 reads would actually mean you are wrong on 6 reads

[Happy Unbirthday Boon]

Lol ok peta, sure

[petapan]

it's just facts

[SirCakez]

zzzzz this game is stalling again

[petapan]

i'm reading the last few pages but don't actually want to respond to them

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Don't worry, Cakez. After I have heard from Dunnstral, I take my next step. And if that doesn't kick the game in the ass, there's nothing that will -- not even the shot.

[SirCakez]

Ok good
I just think this kind of endless debate always ends up hurting town by increasing apathy

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Oh, you know, it's a good time for this, actually.

If anyone thinks they /might/ be in the line of fire for the shot, now is your chance to change my mind. Ears and eyes are open. Filters are off. Stubbornness disengaged. I am willing to listen to you for a short time. Call it 24 hours, though if everyone checks in before then, I might skip ahead. You will not know if you actually ARE a target until after this window closes. This is your one chance.

Remember that my stated solve /may or may not actually line up with what I actually intend to do/. I might decide to turn around and follow the solve everyone else is pushing, or I might hit three of my current solve and then knock out Imperium in the end. You do not know what my intentions are. So you should use your own brain to decide if you're a target, and not try and parse my play to figure it out.

Once the next stage of my time with the gun begins, it's going to be more about ordering who goes down first. Your time will be up and there will be no convincing me of anything. I would seriously consider if you trust a gamble on being the target or not.

[WhemeStar]

Can’t wait for the mush shoots imperium post

[MUSHSHAGANA]

It might seem hard to believe, but it isn't impossible by any means.

[SirCakez]

For real mind games Mush will shoot herself

[Imperium]

It would not be the first time my rock in the game wanted me dead.

[Imperium]

Can’t wait for the mush shoots imperium post

TOP 10 ANIME BETRAYALS

If we're on the list then we'll tut tut a little bit but I feel strongly that a gun in our hands = town win so my focus will continue to be on talking about unwnd and Dunn townreads.

[Dunnstral]

Don't worry, Cakez. After I have heard from Dunnstral, I take my next step. And if that doesn't kick the game in the ass, there's nothing that will -- not even the shot.

Confused about what you're waiting for, if you asked for something I missed it. If it's my reads didn't I explain them?

[Dunnstral]

Unwnd, we have the same scum pool.

[Dunnstral]

Oh, you know, it's a good time for this, actually.

If anyone thinks they /might/ be in the line of fire for the shot, now is your chance to change my mind. Ears and eyes are open. Filters are off. Stubbornness disengaged. I am willing to listen to you for a short time. Call it 24 hours, though if everyone checks in before then, I might skip ahead. You will not know if you actually ARE a target until after this window closes. This is your one chance.

Remember that my stated solve /may or may not actually line up with what I actually intend to do/. I might decide to turn around and follow the solve everyone else is pushing, or I might hit three of my current solve and then knock out Imperium in the end. You do not know what my intentions are. So you should use your own brain to decide if you're a target, and not try and parse my play to figure it out.

Once the next stage of my time with the gun begins, it's going to be more about ordering who goes down first. Your time will be up and there will be no convincing me of anything. I would seriously consider if you trust a gamble on being the target or not.

Again, you should rethink my interactions with the rezt of your poe pool. It doesn't make sense for me to be scum with those players based on how I am pushing them and they are treating me

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Oh, you know, it's a good time for this, actually.

If anyone thinks they /might/ be in the line of fire for the shot, now is your chance to change my mind. Ears and eyes are open. Filters are off. Stubbornness disengaged. I am willing to listen to you for a short time. Call it 24 hours, though if everyone checks in before then, I might skip ahead. You will not know if you actually ARE a target until after this window closes. This is your one chance.

Remember that my stated solve /may or may not actually line up with what I actually intend to do/. I might decide to turn around and follow the solve everyone else is pushing, or I might hit three of my current solve and then knock out Imperium in the end. You do not know what my intentions are. So you should use your own brain to decide if you're a target, and not try and parse my play to figure it out.

Once the next stage of my time with the gun begins, it's going to be more about ordering who goes down first. Your time will be up and there will be no convincing me of anything. I would seriously consider if you trust a gamble on being the target or not.

Again, you should rethink my interactions with the rezt of your poe pool. It doesn't make sense for me to be scum with those players based on how I am pushing them and they are treating me

I think WIFOM still applies, don't you? I mean, unless at least half of the scumteam is both loud and extremely cautious. I think any scumteam with, even say a single strong personality in favor of doing something mega risky and two go-with-the-flow types will inevitably end up taking high risk plays no matter how adamant the last person is, since deadlines are important here.

I also think unless every scum member is a gambler they never end up giving the gun to me if my reads are 3/4 right beforehand, so I can rule out some things. I agree with Cakez that the scumteam would be trying to get me to miss, but there's two layers to this -- the surface level "you have a couple reads no one agrees with, shoot those" that Cakez mentioned, and the second level "we think we can get you to rethink your pool and miss your galaxy brain scumshot by giving you the gun" that no one mentioned. So there's a risk for scum that I fall back on my prior pool here, because I'm actually keeping this in mind.

One thing that I think a lot of my current pool is missing is that, of my galaxy brain shots, I think those players have the highest chance of hitting red if they turn out to be town! The lurkslots are a massive gamble, and if I blow a shot on one of those first I reduce our chances by widening the pool of the next shot. As such, I should only shoot there if I'm /really/ confident, right? Because two misses and town is toast. So I need to find a confident shot first, and then if I can't confidently hit scum, I need to shoot somewhere that has some possibility /and/ I think is capable of hitting red if I'm wrong.

Do you think that you are EITHER obvtown OR obvtrash, Dunn?

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Don't worry, Cakez. After I have heard from Dunnstral, I take my next step. And if that doesn't kick the game in the ass, there's nothing that will -- not even the shot.

Confused about what you're waiting for, if you asked for something I missed it. If it's my reads didn't I explain them?

As for this: Do you have meta for Imperium, HUB or Cakez as scum? Specifically: how they bus.

[Dunnstral]

This isn't an obvtown game for me, but I don't see myself as the scummiest person here

I've seen cakes as scum but don't know about bussing.

Imperium I don't remember when/if I've seen them as scum

HUB I've seen as scum before, I think they prefer to play is straight and avoid bussing most of the time

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Ah, so it isn't a complete loss going into the next phase.

I think, Dunn, that the issue you're having here may be that the scummiest person in the game is Not_Mafia, and I don't trust myself to read that slot confidently. I think it's VERY SCUMMY, even taking NM's playstyle into consideration, but I have no prior experience. I'm taking a gamble on the basis of a SINGLE SOLITARY POST, "Who is Duchess?". And if NM is town, I think NM misses every. single. solitary. time. It's damn near gamethrowing to shoot there unless I'm 100% certain beyond all doubt, and I am distinctly not.

Of the active players, there's a balance to take into account, as well. I'm balancing scumminess and non-trash play. The scummiest one in the game is still a gamble if their play or their reads are total crap and I'm not confident about them. If I'm gambling, right, I want the greatest return on investment and the lowest risk. So I'm aiming to hit the scummiest slot that I am confident can hit scum themselves if they are in fact town.

That's a tough choice to make!

Would you not put yourself in the top 5 when you combine both considerations? I mean, you aren't obvtown, you said it yourself. But no one outside of the lurkslots is obvscum either, and none of them are so obvscum that with the NEXT DAMN SHOT controlling the fate of the game, I would want to gamble it on them. And most people here, let's face it, have trash reads. Just, as a matter of course. You and unwnd have the same scumpool, you said THAT yourself too. Why would I not include you if I include unwnd?